LARRY NESS
Maryland @ Wake Forest
PICK: Wake Forest -4.5
Maryland beat Wake Forest 75-64 last March in the ACC tourney, giving the Terps victories in five of the last six meetings between the two schools. Maryland comes into this game 10-4 with wins in FIVE of its last six games, including a 77-68 home win over 25th-ranked Florida St on Sunday. The Demon Deacons saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in their last outing, a 67-66 loss at Miami-Fla, which entered the AP top-25 on Monday at No. 23 ('Canes have won seven straight). Wake opened last year 16-0 but struggled down the stretch losing its first game in the ACC tourney (to Maryland) and then getting blown out by Cleveland St in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Gone are guard Teague (18.8) and the 6-9 Johnson (15.0-8.5) but the Demon Deacons still have pretty good talent, although not much depth. The 6-9 Aminu (16.8-11.6) is the team's best player as a sophomore, while senior guard Ish Smith has seen his playing time jump from 22 MPG last season to about 35 MPG this season (his numbers have doubled to 12.8-5.9 APG). Freshman guard Harris (11.6) and senior Williams (9.9-5.7) join Smith in a three-guard lineup with 6-11 senior Weaver (3.8-3.2) joining Aminu up front. Getting significant minutes and making solid contributions are 6-7 freshman Stewart (8.1) and 7-0 senior McFarland (6.1-7.1). Maryland features a three-guard lineup as well, led by the 6-6 Vazquez (17.6-4.9-6.1). Mosley (12.8-5.2) and Hayes (11.7-3.2 APG) complete that trio while 6-7 senior Milbourne (14.6-5.5) and 6-9 freshman Williams (7.6-8.1) get most of the playing time up front. Neither team is very deep and while both could 'sneak' into the "Big Dance" this year, I don't believe either would last long. Wake should be in a nasty mood off its one-point loss to Miami-Fla and here at home (Demon Deacons are 7-1), should avenge last year's ACC tourney loss with a convincing win.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 199.5
We have to take a shot at the Under here as plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON)in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting, after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better, are 24-5 since 1996. The average posted total in these games is 195.2 points and the average score has combined to total just 183.8 points. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit.
Stephen Nover
Houston +2' at CHARLOTTE
The bottom line is I'll take points with a good Western Conference team against a mediocre Eastern Conference club. That's the case in this matchup.
In the last month, the Bobcats are 1-4 when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Rockets are 10-4-1 against the spread in their last 15 games when playing on two days rest, which is the case here.
The Rockets have played a tough schedule lately losing consecutive road games to the Hornets, Lakers and Suns. There's no shame in that. The Rockets came back to play well in their last game, beating the Knicks at home on Saturday. The Bobcats are a step down for Houston considering who the Rockets had been facing on the road.
Chase Budinger doesn't get a lot of attention. But it was a big plus for Houston that he returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing seven games. Not only does Budinger give the Rockets another long-range scoring threat, but he provides energy to the second unit and allows Rockets coach Rick Adelman to give more rest to Trevor Ariza and Shane Battier.
Both Ariza and Battier had been playing too many minutes, which had reduced their normal effectiveness.
2♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Karl Garrett
Penn State +9 at ILLINOIS
Big 10 battle tonight from Champaign, and I will grab the points with the underdog Nittany Lions.
This has been a lopsided series as far as the numbers are concerned, as the series underdog is a whopping 10-1-2 against the spread the last 13 times these schools have met!
Penn State brings a 2-game series win streak into this one, and the Nittany's have also won outright in 4 of the last 5 series showdowns.
The Lions also boast 6 straight covers in the underdog role, including a hard-faught 75-70 loss at Minnesota the last time on the Big 10 road trail.
Illinois is just 17-23 against the spread their last 40 lined home games, and with losses in the last pair of series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 overall, I feel the Illini will be happy with any win they can get tonight.
G-Man taking the points.
3♦ PENN STATE
Rocketman
Penn State vs. Illinois
Play: Penn State +8.5
Illinois is 11-27 ATS the past 3 years after allowing 60 points or less. Illinois is 1-5 ATS this year against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. Penn State is allowing only 61.7 points per game overall this year. Penn State is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS overall vs Illinois the past 3 years including 2-0 SU and ATS at Illinois. I'm expecting a close game in this one tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Penn State tonight!
Wunderdog
Penn State at Illinois
Pick: Illinois -8.5
Illinois has slowly begun building the program back up. The first thing that comes is restoring home dominance, and they certainly have done a good job of that. They have opened the season at 9-0 in Champagne. The Nittany Lions are too dependent on Taylor Battle - their only double-digit scorer. He is on the floor for 36 minutes per game, and the Illini will shut him down. The rest of the supporting cast just isn't good enough to make this one close. The Illini have a tremendous home-court advantage and feed off the energy, and without any answers beyond Battle, it will be a long night for the Nittany's. I'll go with Illinois in this one.
John Ryan
Kentucky at Florida
Prediction: Florida
3* graded play on Florida as they take on Kentucky set to start at 9:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN. Kentucky moved up the rankings to number 2 due to prior undefeated teams posting their first losses. Kentucky is 16-0 and off to their best start since 1965, but struggled fundamentally against Georgia. Kentucky is a very good team, but they have freshman playing critical minutes. DeMarcus Cousins is a stud - period, but he is now going to play in the most hostile environment of his life. Cousins was strong inside and scored 7 points in the last 3 minutes against Georgia. Florida has superior inside defense and all of the Kentucky players are going to have to work extremely hard to get strong scoring opportunities. Florida is the type of team that Kentucky has really struggled against. Kentucky is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. We also see Kentucky being contained by a strong Florida defense and shooting somewhere between 40 and 46%. Note that Florida is 2-1 ATS this season and 20-8 ATS over the past 3 seasons when they allow 40 to 46% shooting. Take Florida.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons +5.5
The Pistons were brutally embarrassed in Chicago last night and the public is siding with Washington because of it. Odds makers anticipated as much and have set themselves up for a payday by spotting the Pistons a couple extra points. Detroit has this game circled as the one where it can end its losing streak and now it has even more motivation to get it done after last night's results. The Wizards have been a terrible home favorite to back as they are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the role. Plus, they are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lastly, plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 15-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Penn State +8.5
After starting 0-3 in Big Ten play with painful losses to Minnesota and Michigan, the Penn State Nittany Lions are very hungry for a win tonight as they travel to Illinois. The Nittany Lions blew a big halftime lead to Michigan over the weekend, and have been chomping at the bit to get back on the floor to make amends for that bad loss. Illinois has opened 3-0 in Big Ten play, and with a road game at Michigan State up next, this is a big look ahead game for the Fighting Illini. The motivational edge certainly goes with Penn State in this one. Illinois is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Penn State is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take Penn State and the points.
Drew Gordon
LA Lakers at SAN ANTONIO -3
35-23-3 roll over L61 Free Plays, incl. the 76ers Monday, the Cardinals Sunday and the Cowboys Saturday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Lakers/Spurs match up.
This is an intriuging match up for a variety of reasons. Besides being two of the more popular top-tier teams in the NBA, both teams come into this game with question marks: Can the Lakers turnaround their recent road woes? And what about the Spurs, are they for real? Or are they padding their record with easy wins?
Well the answer is somewhere in the middle, but as far as this match up is concerned, I'd be more worried about the Lakers current piss-poor road play (0-3 SUATS L/3 roadies), because we know the Spurs have the talent & coaching to play with anybody, especially at home.
In fact, Lakers road woes extend all season, going 4-9 ATS away this year. I know their backers are excited to get Kobe and company at this price, but buyer beware, Vegas simply isn't going to give you any value with the Lakers, who are 16-21 ATS overall on the season. Bettors are slaming the Lakers on the moneyline in this contest - just what Vegas wanted - in what I expect will be a public blood bath tonight.
Finally, here's another match up where the absence of Gasol will really be felt. Duncan and Blair play well of each other, and without Gasol in there to slow them down, Odom is going to get stuck guarding a much bigger post player - a total mismatch. In the end, the Spurs got a nice confidence-boosting win over the sorry-ass Nets, and now get a chance to queit their critics against a Laker team having problems in hostile territory of late.
Take San Antonio over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Dominic Fazzini
Kentucky -3 at FLORIDA
Not much to say about Monday's play on the Heat with my complimentary selection, other than to say it sucked. Big time. But I'm still 55-37-1 over the past 93 days, including a 38-24-1 run over the last 63!
If ever you were going to jump on one of my free plays, this is the one to go for. Kentucky freshman guard John Wall already has established himself as not only the top first-year player in the nation, but maybe the best PLAYER in the country.
And he's hardly a one-man show, as the unbeaten Wildcats are averaging 82.4 ppg, and getting double-digit scoring from four players, with junior forward Patrick Patterson (16.7 ppg) and freshman forward DeMarcus Cousins (15.4 ppg) giving the team a strong presence up front, as the two also combine for 17.5 rebounds per game.
Kentucky has lost five straight games in Gainesville, but I think it is catching Florida at a good time. The Wildcats just survived a scare at home against Georgia on Saturday, so coach John Calipari will stress the importance of the players keeping their focus tonight in a hostile environment.
And the Gators have struggled over the past month following an 8-0 start. Florida is just 3-4 in its last seven games, going 1-4 ATS in lined games during that stretch.
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. Go with Kentucky, which will take control of this game by halftime and cruise to a relatively easy victory.
5♦ KENTUCKY
Tony Weston
Strong winner last night as Villanova takes care of business and delivers a solid Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another victory tonight as I’m taking the Lakers on the road at the San Antonio Spurs.
When it comes to these Western Conference powers, the story has been one-sided.
Coming into this game Los Angeles has covered in 5 consecutive meetings against San Antonio and in 7 of its last 10 overall in San Antonio.
The Lakers have cashed in three straight times at the Spurs and will make it 4 in a row tonight.
3♦ LAKERS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Purdue Boilermakers to absolutely destroy the Ohio State Buckeyes at home. They can't be too happy about losing their first game of the season and I see them coming out and laying the wood in anger. This team hasn't lost a home game yet this year and I'm getting a little tired of hearing about Evan Turner's absence in Columbus. He's been back for two games now and it hasn't seemed to help. OSU is already 1-3 in Big 10 Conference play and tonight they're in danger of falling to 1-4 and near the bottom of the cellar. Purdue, meanwhile, is still in position to win the conference outright, and I think they will, starting with tonight's game. They have better inside play and a bigger rebounding advantage on the glass, meaning Purdue will likely keep their lineup a little bigger throughout the game, especially if the Buckeyes shouuld grab the lead at any points in the first half. I'm looking for something like a 9 to 11 point Boilers win.
2♦ PURDUE
Brett Atkins
I've now delivered three straight college hoops free winners after Villanova went to Louisville and scored the outright upset. Today I'll make it four in a row as I go with Purdue to easily cover the number at home against Ohio State in a Big Ten matchup.
Purdue’s 14-game winning streak to start the season came to an end on Saturday when they lost at Wisconsin, so you know these guys have been anxious to get back on the court and get back on the winning side.
The Boilermakers fell 73-66 as a 1 ½-point road favorite. They shot well but couldn’t hit a free throw and it cost them down the stretch. During their hot start, Purdue had 12 double-digit wins and held all but one opponent to 65 points or less.
Ohio State lost 73-62 at Minnesota on Saturday as a four-point ‘dog and the Buckeyes are now just 1-3 SU and ATS in Big Ten action. The three losses have all been on the road and all by a minimum of nine points. They are winless on the road this season (0-4 ATS) and they’ve been outscored by 13.4 points a game when they hit the highway.
Last year, Purdue destroyed Ohio State 75-50 at home as a 9 ½-point favorite. The home team has won five straight series clashes, going 3-1-1 ATS. Ohio State is on ATS slides of 1-5 after a non-cover and 1-7 overall. Purdue is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover.
Purdue gets back on the winning track with ease tonight. Lay the chalk and play the Boilermakers.
3♦ PURDUE
Jay McNeil
I just missed making the grade with my free play Monday on the underdog Hornets against Philadelphia, but a loss is a loss, no matter if it's by two points or 20. I won't have that problem tonight, though, as I build on my 13-7 run with a sure-fire NBA winner.
The Magic seems to have gotten their act together, ending a season-worst four-game losing streak with an impressive 113-81 victory over Atlanta. They shot 52.4 percent in that game and had seven players score in double figures.
Now they'll carry that momentum into Sacramento, where the Kings are now struggling after starting the season strong. They are 2-5 in their last seven games at Arco Arena after opening 10-3 at home
.
Orlando star Dwight Howard has feasted against Sacramento in his last four games against the team, averaging 27.3 ppg while shooting an incredible 80 percent. The Magic won both of their games against the Kings last season by an average of 25 points.
Orlando is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Kings, who are on ATS slides of 0-3-1 overall, 0-3-1 at home and 1-6 as a home underdog. Take the Magic to win by at least eight points tonight.
5♦ ORLANDO