Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday January, 15

Ben Burns

New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Over

These teams played an extremely low-scoring game (77-62) against each other earlier in the season. That was back in early November though and it was also at New Orleans. We should be able to expect significantly more points than that this evening.

This O/U number is in the low to mid 180s. As of this writing, its come down a little from its opener. I believe its offering very fair value.

Not only do the 76'ers score more points at home, they also allow more. Games at Philadelphia are averaging 193.2 points. For the season, the "over" is a lucrative 14-4 here. That includes a 4-1 "over" mark when they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range.

Meanwhile, the Hornets score considerably more points on the road than they do at New Orleans, also allowing more. Their road games are averaging 195.3 points. Eleven of their 18 away games have finished above the number. That includes a 3-0 "over" mark when they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

While the 76'ers would surely like to improve their defense, they've still allowed four of their last five opponents to reach triple-digts. Holding the Hornets to 95 would be considered an "improvement." Yet, if the 76'ers only matched that mark, we'd have enough to easily clear this number.

With the 76'ers having been off since Saturday, it should also be mentioned that the "over" is a perfect 8-0 when Philadelphia has played with two day's rest in between games. The 76'ers last three games in that situation have produced 207, 197 and 202 points. Take a look at the Over.

Jesse Schule

Toronto vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn

Now an AMAZING 10-1 with FREE hoops plays in 2013! We try to keep the ball rolling Tuesday with a play on the Nets over the Raptors. Brooklyn has won six in a row overall, as well as five straight at home.

The Nets look like a different team with P.J. Carlesimo in charge, they have won eight of nine since firing Avery Johnson. One of the biggest reasons for their new found success would be strong defense, limiting opponents to an average of just 86.8 points over their last four games.

The Nets will host the Raptors tonight, and Toronto has just finished a six game home-stand, going 3-3 during that span. The Raptors went on a run in the second half of December, winning seven of eight in a two week period, and since then a lot of bettors have jumped on the bandwagon. They are still a banged up bunch, without Andrea Bargnani, and and Jonas Valanciunas, and Amir Johnson is battling through a foot injury.

Toronto opened up an 18 point lead in the first quarter against Milwaukee on Sunday, but then faded in the fourth quarter, getting out-scored by the Bucks 33-18, and going on to lose by a score of 107-96.

PG Kyle Lowry was 0-4 shooting in the loss, playing just 17 minutes, and he missed practise on Monday for personal reasons. The Raptors will hobble into Brooklyn with several players nursing injuries, taking on a resurgent Nets team that has covered the points in four straight games.

I don't expect Toronto to be at their best on the first game of this road trip, and I think they will struggle to keep up with Deron Williams and the Nets.

Bruce Marshall

Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt
Pick: Mississippi

It’s not like last season, when Vandy had no trouble on two occasions vs. Ole Miss, including an easy win in the SEC Tourney. That’s because much of that Dore lineup from a year ago is now in the NBA, and Kevin Stallings is pulling out the few hairs left on his balding pate with the ongoing Vandy offensive inconsistencies that were underlined once again last Saturday on the short end of an embarrassing 56-33 score at Arkansas. Now, it’s the Rebs with the look of a Big Dance qualifier after their quick 2-0 break from the gate in SEC play and a five-game overall win streak, fueled by a balanced attack (four DD scorers) that has been further upgraded by transfer G Marshall Henderson (formerly Utah; 18.6 ppg). So the revenge angle has some real substance. Regional scouts consider Ole Miss’ weekend romp past ranked Missouri as a warning shot to the rest of the loop.

Matt Fargo

Indiana vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte

The Pacers and Bobcats played just three days ago with Indiana coming away with an eight-point win at home. They have had a tough time on the road though and the Bobcats look to snap a 12-game home losing streak on Tuesday. These teams just met on Saturday with Indiana winning the game by eight points at home as it was able to pull away in the second half. Obviously with the game taking place just three days ago, not much has changed between these teams therefore the change in venue should make the Pacers a 5.5-point favorite based on giving three points for each home court. But that is not the case as the Pacers come in way overvalued. Indiana owns the second best home record in the NBA at 15-3 but following a loss on Sunday at Brooklyn, they are just 8-12 on the road and along with the Celtics, that is the worst road record amongst Eastern Conference teams currently holding down playoff positions. Charlotte is coming off a loss last night in Boston which was the sixth straight win for the Celtics so they certainly caught them at the wrong time. After winning two of three games, both coming on the road, the Bobcats have dropped four in a row with the last three coming on the highway and they are pretty overdue for a win on their home floor as they have dropped 12 straight games on their home floor but it isn't for lack of trying as over half of those losses came by fewer points than what they are getting tonight. Charlotte is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss while the Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. The home team has won each of the last 10 Pacers games and while an outright Charlotte win here is far from out of the question, we will grab the generous amount of points.

David Chan

New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

New Orleans is 11-26 SU and 19-18 ATS; it's coming off a 100-87 loss at New York as a 7 point dog on the 13th. The Hornets poor overall record can be chalked up to their poor offense which averages just 91.9 PPG. Eric Gordon remains a bright spot and had 22 points in the loss to the Knicks.

It comes as no surprise to learn that New Orleans is just 5-9 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.

Philadelphia is 16-22 SU/ATS; it's coming off a 107-100 win over Houston as a 1 point favorite on the 12th.

The victory marked the first game of 12 of its next 13 in front of the home town crowd, and there's no question this team will look to keep the momentum rolling.

Jrue Holiday had 30 points and nine assists:

"We needed it," said Holiday after. "Going into this home stretch, getting the first one is huge. Home court is big. It's crucial. We've got to come here and try and win at home."

A date vs. the Hornets is just what the doctor ordered to continue the home win streak, as the last time these teams played against each other on November 7th, Philadelphia would beat New Orleans 77-62 in its best defensive effort of the season.

And note that Philadelphia is in fact 5-3 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest.

The road has been New Orleans' "achilles heel", coming into this contest just 5-13 SU away from friendly confines. Look for Philadelphia to defend its home floor and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Raptors +7

Brooklyn is being slightly over-valued in this spot so I think it's a good time to take the Raptors. Brooklyn has now won six in a row and four at the pay window. They are coming off a big win against the Indiana Pacers and have a home-and-home on deck with the Atlanta Hawks. Both of these teams are a bigger threat to the Nets in the East than the Raptors, who are at the bottom of the Atlantic division.

However, before the loss on Sunday to the Bucks Toronto had been playing pretty solid. They beat Charlotte and Philadelphia by holding them to just 72 and 78 points. This team has quietly won 10 of their last 14 games so they are fairly hot themselves even though they aren't getting the attention Brooklyn is.

This is a short trip for Toronto so I don't think the home court advantage will be that significant for the Nets tonight, so I'll take the points with the road dog as the Nets are just 30-46 ATS the last three years against teams with a losing record and 4-17 ATS at home after a game in which they covered the spread.

Rob Vinciletti

Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers fit a nice system here that plays on rested road dogs of 5 or more with a total that is 200 or higher and scored 90 or less on 45% or less shooting as a home dog in their last game, vs an opponent like Denver that scored 110 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more in their last game. These road dogs have covered 9 straight times. The Blazers have found added scoring with Lillard and could catch Denver a little flat off their big win revenge win over Golden State on Sunday night. Look for the Blazers to cover the 9 point spread here tonight. Take the points with Portland.

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

Mike D'Antoni commented following Friday's lopsided loss to Oklahoma City that the Lakers season was starting Sunday. Ah yes, the old brand new start, we're 0-0 ploy. Thus, after shredding a bad Cleveland team on Sunday, the Lakers are now 1-0 in what amounts to D'Antoni's Part Two of the NBA season. Sounds good if I'm a Laker fan, I suppose, and I actually like the approach in terms of trying to rev up the players. But in truth the Lakers are 16-21, can't play defense, are shorthanded with injuries and are at best an average NBA team. The Bucks are a couple games on the right side of .500, and they're 3-1 since hard-nosed skipper Scott Skiles was shown the door. Bottom line is no one fears the Lakers right now and that lost aura of invincibility has visitors to Staples Center feeling confident. Maybe Sunday got the Lakers going, but they're going to have to prove it to me. I'll side with the Bucks plus the points tonight.

Jim Feist

Pacers vs. Bobcats
Play: Under

Indiana is tops in the NBA in points allowed just 89 points per game and second in rebounds and faces a weak shooting Charlotte team. Indiana is not a great shooting team, ranked 28th in FG shooting (42%) and Charlotte is ranked 27th. The under is 5-2 in the Bobcats last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. Indiana is 29th in the NBA in points scored, preferring a slower pace, while Charlotte is 18th, so don't look for an offensive show, plus the under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play the Pacers/Bobcats under the total.

Tony George

Creighton -13

The Blue Jays are 16-1 SU and 12-3 ATS on the season in lined games and ranked 10th in the nation. Northern Iowa does not match up well here and I like Creighton at home, laying this number, off a huge 91 point outburst on Saturday the Blue Jays are clicking on all cylinders right now. Doug McDermott may be the best player in the nation this year for Creighton. Jays on a serious role.....well coached and covering big numbers.

JR O'Donnell

Wake Forest +8

Strong back court play by the Demon Deacon's "Cody Mcintyre" & Cj Harris will put the Oster on the ACC TUESDAY dog here today + THE 8 ... YES WE WILL STAND IN FRONT OF THE TIGERS @ LITTLEJOHN ARENA... These Clemson Tigers shot a unreal 79 % from the field in the second half last game vs the Cavs... We have watched 6' 7" Travis Mckie from his high school days in RichmondVa... #'s are at Clemson Tigers punch in @ 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games & Demon Deacons are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

Wunderdog

New Orleans at Philadelphia
Pick: New Orleans +3

It has been a disappointing season for the Philadelphia 76ers to this point, and they have not been able to stop the bleeding. Philadelphia is 4-13 over their last 17 games. The New Orleans Hornets have had even less success on the season. But, for the moment they are a bad team that is playing very well. They have won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming against the NY Knicks. New Orleans should be playing with purpose here, as they scored just 62 points in a home loss to the Sixers early in the season. New Orleans has done a fantastic job of coming back from a big double-digit loss in their previous game, to follow with a superb 14-3 ATS mark in their last 17. Philadelphia’s struggles vs. the West are well documented at just 8-20 ATS in their last 28. Take New Orleans.

Greg Daraban

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

No Chris Paul on Monday no problem Memphis left in the dust 99-73. LA continues to sizzle. 29-9. Team showing they are on a mission. Hard to bet against this bunch right now and you are catching points as well.

Marc Lawrence

Tennessee at Kentucky
Pick: Tennessee

A heavy dose of double revenge from last season should do the trick for the Vols here tonight. We’re certain 2nd-year Tennessee head coach Cuonzo Martin still has nightmares about last year’s 69-44 pasting the Vols suffered at this venue but his team arrives with a stout 10-3-1 ATS mark when playing with SEC double revenge exact from the previous season. And when Rocky Top takes on Kentucky in this role and the Wildcats own a less-than .875 win percentage, Tennessee has made four consecutive trips to the pay window. As expected, John Calipari’s bunch is down a notch after the NBA skimmed the cream of its 38-2 NCAA Championship squad. That's confirmed by the Wildcats' five losses already this season. It's evident these young Cats are taking a bit longer to develop than we figured so we’ll look to take advantage while the time is right. UK’s shocking 0-6 ATS mark in SEC games on this floor when playing off an SEC home loss seals the deal. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tennessee.