Freddy Wills
Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Play: Wisconsin
Tom Crean is 0-8 vs. Wisconsin and Wisconsin is just coming off a big win against #12 Illinois. Indiana has never been able to score at a high volume vs. Wisconsin and that is because Wisconsin likes to slow the game down quite a bit and they don't turn the ball over just 8.9/game #1 in the nation. Indiana scores 87.1 points per game best in the nation, but they are getting their by forcing 16.4 turnovers. Indiana only scores 57.6 points per game in their 10 game skid to Wisconsin who is led by 3 quality seniors that are helping to establish defense-first reputation of Wisconsin. I think 10.5 points holds a lot of value in conference play especially when we have a defensive team on the other side.
Teddy Covers
New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
Pick: New Orleans
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Forget New Orleans 11-26 full season record – it’s meaningless. The Hornets got star shooting guard Eric Gordon and #1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis back in the lineup and they’ve started to win.
First the Hornets knocked off Dallas in Dallas. Then they beat the red hot Spurs, a team playing as well as any in the league through the first 2 ½ months of the season. They rallied from a double digit deficit at the end of three quarters to knock off the Rockets, and rallied from another double digit deficit to beat Minnesota. The key in all four games was defense and rebounding – New Orleans won the rebounding battle each time and held all three opponents to 92 points or less in regulation.
But New Orleans played poorly against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, making this a prime bounce-back spot for an undervalued commodity in the betting markets right now. Head coach Monty Williams: “We just didn't play with a sense of urgency. After winning four games in a row, I thought our guys kind of rested on the fact they need to show up." Expect a better effort here!
Meanwhile, the Sixers are slumping badly. Forget Philly’s season long 16-22 record. Doug Collins’ squad started the season with a 10-6 mark. Since the beginning of December, they are just 6-16; a bottom feeder, not a contender. The Sixers snapped a five game skid with a win over Houston on Saturday, but they are 0-6 SU following a win during their current slide. Look for that streak to continue tonight!
Sean Murphy
Indiana vs. Charlotte
Pick: Under
What to expect: One, if not both teams will continue to struggle offensively - if anything we'll see an uglier game than we did on Saturday, when the Pacers prevailed 96-88 in this same matchup. The Bobcats have been held under 90 points in three straight games. Even in last night's contest in Boston, a game in which the 'Cats seemed to be gaining some traction at times, they still managed to put up only 89, and that was...thanks in large part to a late scoring flurry that came when the result had long been decided. Kemba Walker looked a little worse for wear after the game, on a night when he shot just 4-of-16 from the field. I just don't see a lot of room for improvement against another tough defensive opponent, playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Indiana hasn't scored 100 points in a game since doing so in Atlanta on December 29th. The Pacers didn't have Paul George for Saturday's win over the Bobcats, but he returned on Sunday. Keep in mind, they had D.J. Augustin step up with an 18-point effort off the bench in that win over Charlotte - a performance he's unlikely to duplicate tonight. Lance Stephenson was forced to leave Sunday's game with an ankle injury and is questionable to return tonight - remember, he scored 17 points on Saturday. We'll see a couple of high-scoring quarters in this one, but there will also be a couple of prolonged scoring droughts to ultimately keep the final score 'under' the posted total.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky/ Tennessee Under 134: This has been a low scoring series and I expect the same in this game. The Under is 11-1 the last 12 meetings and 8-0 the last 8 in Kentucky. In the last 8 meetings overall, 135 points have been eclipsed just once, with those 8 games averaging 128 ppg. The Vols have had some real offensive struggles this year, especially on the road, where they have averaged just 46.3 ppg. Could be tough for them to put up many points tonight vs a Kentucky squad that has allowed just 58.5 ppg on 36.7% shooting, especially since Kentucky allowed 83 points in their last game. I expect a real bounce back effort at the defensive end for the Cats here. Yes the Cats average 77.4 ppg on the year, but have put up just 65.5 ppg in their 2 SEC games and Tennessee plays very good defense, allowing 61.8 ppg overall and 50.3 ppg on the road. This should not be an uptempo game. Tennessee can’t run with this team and I see them slowing it down to keep the Cats in the mid 60’s at best. Both teams are poor FT shooting teams and only on team has a shot at scoring in the 60’s. I look for a 65-55 type of final.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Wisconsin/ Indiana Under 133: The Badgers have NO SHOT at winning this one if the run with the Hoosiers and I expect them to play at their normal pace. The Badgers come in playing awesome defense as they have allowed just 54.7 ppg on 40.1% shooting on the year. The Badgers have allowed 54 points or less in their last 5 games and 51 points or less in their 3 Big 10 games so far. The Hoosiers are not all about offense as they have played good defense on the year as well. Indiana comes in allowing just 60.4 ppg on 36.4% shooting overall, including allowing 58 ppg on 35.4% shooting at home. The Hoosiers should have little trouble holding down this Wisconsin squad that has averaged just 51 ppg in their 3 true road games this year. I know this game is at Indiana, but Bo Ryan really get's his teams ready for road games, so I look for him to get this game at a much slower pace than Indiana would like. Both teams play excellent defense and while Indiana shoots 73.8% from the FT line, Wisconsin only shots 61.4% from there. Gonna be very hard for the Hoosiers to get more than 70 in this one, while Wisconsin should be good for the mid to upper 50's at best. Mid 120's here at best.
Clemson/ Wake Forest Over 126.5: 9 of the last 10 in this series has scored 131 points or more and I expect more of the same in this one. The Clemson offense has struggled for much of the year, but they have scored 70.8 pg at home and will be taking on a Wake Forest team that has allowed 2.2 ppg on the road. Wake just came off a game vs a weak offense team in Boston College and they allowed them 72 points, so Clemson should hit 70 at least here. In Clemson's last game they allowed just 44 points to Virginia, but the Cavs are a slow down team that really likes to score in the 50's. Prior to that game Clemson played FSU and DUke, which are much more high scoring teams than Virginia and they allowed 68 and 71 points in the two games. Wake is a another team that is better scoring than Virginia, as they come in averaging 69.1 ppg overall and 69.2 ppg on the road. Clemson home games have averaged 126.7 ppg, while Wake's road games have averaged 141.4 ppg. I say we split the difference here and get a game in the low to mid 130's.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Indiana/ Charlotte Under 185.5: Indiana was on a 7 game Under streak and I was on the Under in most of those game. The Other day I took the Over in their game vs the Nets and while it did go over the total, just 183 points were scored in the game. That now gives them 8 straight games in which the final score was lower than tonight's total, with those 8 games averaging just 171.6 ppg. That's the kind of game Indiana wants. No matter their opponent or how bat their opponents defense is, the Pacers are not a team that looks to score past 92 or 93. For the year the Pacers have averaged 90.9 ppg, while also scoring just 87.9 ppg on the road. The Bobcats have allowed 102.9 pg at home, but as stated above, the Pacers don't look to pile on the points, even vs bad defenses. Charlotte does score 98 ppg at home, but they are struggling overall on offense, putting up just 93 ppg in their last 5 games, plus when Indiana was here back in November, the Bobcats put up just 90 on this defense. the two games between these teams this year have averaged just 181.5 ppg and I see this one slightly lower scoring than that. I expect it in the 170's.
LA Clippers/ Houston Over 206.5: Last night the Clippers played an amazing game Memphis, in which they won 99-73. They played tremendous defense in that game, but that kind of defensive intensity is rarely duplicated on back-to-back nights. Tonight i expect a high scoring Rockets team (108.8 ppg at home) to take advantage at what could be a drained Clippers defensive squad. On offense the Clippers can score very well and last night they showed that by putting up 99 points on one of the best defensive teams in the league. Tonight they will take on a Rocket's squad that is 28th in points allowed (103.3 ppg), while also allowing 102.8 ppg at home. I clearly expect 103+ points from both teams in this one, in what could be the best game of the night.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans +136 over PHILADELPHIA
Only one time this season have the Hornets been offered fewer road points than the three points being offered here and that came against the weak Bobcats. New Orleans has been offered double-digits on the road in eight of its 18 road games so it comes as quite a surprise that they're being offered just three here when they were recently offered 8 at Milwaukee, 10 at Houston, 7½ at Indiana and 7 at Dallas among others. It's not like the Hornets are on fire either with a 6-5 record over its last 11. The line strongly suggests a big game from the Hornets or a poor one from the Sixers.
The 76ers are five games better than the Hornets, they’re the home team and they're coming off a nice win over Houston. Something is off. Perhaps it’s the lack of trust in Philly’s offense, a unit that has been on a terrible decline for weeks. The Sixers have scored 89 or less in seven of nine and only surpassed that number during that stretch against the Lakers and Rockets. With just four wins in its last 17 games and having nothing but misery against strong defensive clubs, expect the visitor to be in a strong position to win this one
Wake Forest +8 -over CLEMSON
Despite being at home, one really has to question whether the Tigers deserve this billing. These two are quite similar in that they're both going to finish in the bottom half of the ACC, they're both 9-6 overall and when it's all said and done, they'll likely have similar conference records too. Clemson really doesn't do anything better than Wake offensively, as the Deacs hit a higher percentage of its shots and average more points per game. The Tigers are slightly better defensively but that's a little misleading, as Wake's strength of schedule ranks 95th in the nation while Clemson's ranks 225th.
Playing a tougher schedule, The Deacs are also in better form, having won five of their past six with only loss over that span coming against the Dukies in Durham. They've also lost to much tougher opposition than the Tigers have. Clemson has lost two of three and they're just 5-5 over its last 10. The Deacs may not be ready to beat one of the ACC powers but they're in good enough form to hang around here and possibly steal a win. The points seal the deal.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Clippers +3
The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the league. While they won't have Chris Paul available for tonight's game, Eric Bledsoe is more than capable of leading this team to a win on the road against the Rockets. Houston isn't exactly playing that great of late, losers of three straight. It's also worth noting that the Rockets could be without one of their key players in Jeremy Lin, who tweaked his ankle in practice Monday.
The thing I like about risking a little on the Clippers even though they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, is the fact they are listed as the underdog. These players are well aware of the spread for tonight's game. Anytime you give a great team like Los Angeles a reason to get excited about playing a game, it's usually a profitable situation. The Clippers are 4-1 S.U. this season when they are an underdog at tip-off.
Brandon Lee
Denver Nuggets -8½
I think oddsmakers have listed the Nuggets as a large favorite in order to try and get the public to take the Trailblazers. I'm not falling for it. Portland has played extremely well of late, but they have won of the worst benches in the NBA. That's going to be a huge factor with the game being played in the thin air of Denver. Not to mention this will be Portland's fourth game in the last six days. When you factor in that their last three opponents were the Heat, Warriors and Thunder, hard to imagine this team has anything left in the tank for the Nuggets. Lay the Points!
Dave Price
Denver Nuggets -9
The Nuggets have been sensational at home where they are 14-2 (11-5 ATS) and have outscored their opponents by an average of 9.6 points. Home court has certainly treated them well against Portland. The Nuggets have won seven straight at home in the series by an average of 14.1 points. Looking back further, we find that the Trailblazers are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets lost at Portland last month in the season's first matchup so they will be hungry for revenge tonight. Lay the number.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Lakers -6
For basically the first time all season, the Los Angeles Lakers are actually undervalued right now due to losing six of their last seven games overall. They showed that by beating Cleveland 113-93 at home as a 10-point favorite last time out, and I look for another blowout home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
The Lakers simply have to put the pedal to the metal the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs. Don't expect this team to take nights off from here on out because of the hole they have dug themselves. LA faced a brutal schedule during its six-game losing streak, and now it finally lightens up with the Cavs and Bucks back-to-back.
Milwaukee is clearly overvalued heading into this one after winning three of its last four games coming in. Those three wins came against the Suns, Raptors and Bulls, so it has been far from an impressive run. The Bucks also lost 87-103 at home to Detroit during this stretch.
Los Angeles has won 22 of its last 29 meetings with Milwaukee, including 11 of its last 14 home meetings. The Bucks are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents. Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
John Martin
Toronto Raptors +7
The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They should not be a 7-point underdog at Brooklyn tonight. Toronto has won 10 of its last 14 games overall, and it is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 contests. The Nets are overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak against mostly soft competition heading into this one. They are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games after a game where they covered the spread. The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Jeff Alexander
Indiana Pacers -7½
This is a tough spot for the Bobcats who just played last night and will be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Indiana has had a day to rest its legs so it should definitely be the fresher side. Charlotte is 2-13 ATS when playing a 4th game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons and has lost in this spot by an average of 13.8 points. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 1-12 ATS in home games following a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have lost in this spot by an average of 14.7 points.
Nelly
Indiana - over Wisconsin
Wisconsin enters this game off a huge win over Illinois on Saturday; certainly the biggest win of the season for the Badgers and certainly a game that Wisconsin played as well as it had all year. Wisconsin led by 20 at halftime and had hot shooting with 10 3-point makes while also completely dominating the rebounding. Wisconsin is 3-0 in the Big Ten but the lone road win came in an ugly 47-41 win at Nebraska. Playing in Bloomington will be a much tougher task. Indiana appears to be perhaps the most complete team in the nation and while the Hoosiers also enter this game off a huge win on Saturday this is a team that has been dominant at home, outscoring foes 92-58. Wisconsin won't allow that type of pace but the Badgers are still very 3-point reliant and Wisconsin is also one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. The seven-point win over a very good Minnesota team on Saturday was by far the smallest home margin for the Hoosiers who are 11-0 at Assembly Hall and that was a game that Indiana led by 23 at halftime. Fading in the second half will be a teaching point for Coach Crean this week and this is a great opportunity for Indiana to end a long losing streak in this series with a convincing win. Wisconsin has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten in recent years but the guard play has been very suspect this season and this may be the worst Badgers team since Bo Ryan came to Madison. Wisconsin is never the same team away from home and Indiana should add to a 19-7 ATS run in home games.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE (+6.5) over LA Lakers
We are not buying that the Lakers are back after a win over Cleveland on Sunday. LA still has huge defensive liabilities and Milwaukee has the personnel to exploit the Lakers weaknesses. The Lakers have lost 6 out of seven and even though they welcomed back Dwight Howard on Sunday, they are still without Pau Gasol who is sidelined with a concussion. The Bucks are the hotter team having won 3 out of four under interim coach Jim Boylan. Trends are with us as well as Milwaukee has covered 10 of their last 12 meetings with the Lakers. Look ahead angle also in our favor as LA has huge home match-up with Lebron and the Miami Heat on Thursday. Free games have been red hot and we expect another winner tonight with the live dog Bucks.