Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Marc Lawrence

Charlotte Bobcats at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

When the Bobcats meet the Bulls in the Windy City this evening they will take the court knowing they are playing their best ball of the season with pointspread wins in six of their last seven contests. In addition, Charlotte is 6-1 ATS this season in games against opponents off a double-digit victory. With Chicago off a12-point road win yesterday, look for the Cats to improve to 7-3 ATS in this series here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

MTi Sports

Hawks at Heat
Play: Under

The Heat are 0-15 OU (-12.5 ppg) with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by double digits and 0-6 OU (-19.9 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a game in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Hawks are 0-6 OU (-14.5 ppg) after a game at home in which they blocked at least 10 shots and 0-10 OU (-10.9 ppg) after a win at home in which Josh Smith was not the Hawks' high scorer. Consider the UNDER.

JIM FEIST

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS / CHICAGO BULLS
TAKE CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Carlos Boozer (sprained left ankle) didn't travel with the team to Memphis yesterday, so they are playing this week for the first time all season without Boozer and Joakim Noah. Boozer is one of just four players in the NBA averaging a double-double, and will miss all four games this week because of the ankle's significant swelling. Boozer said, "It's a bad one. It's pretty swollen." Charlotte has been a cover-machine since new coach Paul Silas, even on the road, covering at Minnesota and Boston. Play the Bobcats.

Nelly

Michigan + over Northwestern

Michigan has lost four consecutive games but the home losses in this losing run have come against Kansas and Ohio State, two of the top teams in the nation. Michigan lost by four against the top ranked Buckeyes and lost in overtime against Kansas so this is clearly a team that can compete with anyone on any given day. Michigan also played a road game at Wisconsin that was much closer than the final margin and last weekend's ugly loss in Indiana came in a very tough situation and the Hoosiers shot over 67 percent in that game. Northwestern enters this game off a crushing loss to Michigan State in overtime, a game the Wildcats appeared to be in position to win and this has not been a an overly impressive home team despite a 7-1 home record. Northwestern often plays to the level of its competition and Michigan has actually covered in ten of the last 14 meetings between these teams. Northwestern won both meetings last season so this game will have added importance for the Wolverines and Michigan's season would fall into complete jeopardy if it would fall to a 1-5 in the Big Ten.

Cajun Sports

Kentucky vs. Alabama
Selection: Alabama +4

The Wildcats travel to Tuscaloosa for an SEC battle versus the host Crimson Tide on Tuesday night with tipoff set for 9:00PM Eastern Time. The two rivals use completely different styles of play with Kentucky an offensive team that leads the Conference averaging 80 points per game, while Alabama is the league’s top ranked defensive squad allowing a mere 56 points per game. Kentucky shoots the three-ball well which triggers an angle; Alabama is 15-4 ATS in home games versus teams making thirty-seven percent or more of their attempts after 15 or more games. On the defensive side of the ball the Wildcats have struggled causing turnovers and this also triggers an angle; Alabama is 6-0 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing fourteen or fewer turnovers per game the last 2 seasons. Kentucky enters tonight’s contest off two blowout victories both at home winning versus Auburn 78 to 54 and most recently defeating LSU 82 to 44. The Wildcats are 4-18 ATS after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more and 0-6 ATS after allowing 50 points or less the last 3 seasons. With the Tide’s strong perimeter defense, we will back them here as they give the Wildcats all they can stand in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA -½ +1.14 over Washington

The Capitals win over the Sens in their last game was not close to being convincing enough to believe this intruder is about to turn a corner. They were down 1-0 going to the third and rallied but once again the effort was not very spirited and the Caps were held to three goals or less for the 10th straight game. The Caps are still 11 games over .500 but let’s not ignore the fact that they have just seven wins in their last 19 games and not many of those were of the impressive variety. The Caps are still without Alexander Semin and they no longer have the depth to make up for injuries to key personnel. The trading away of Tomas Fleishmann is looking worse by the day and has really had a negative effect on the whole team. The Flyers are the straight goods. They have a slew of snipers and they’re hot as hell with 13 wins in their last 16 games and that’s after playing 10 of their last 11 on the road. Philly has scored five goals in three of their last four games and that came against Buffalo, Boston and Atlanta and five more here is certainly a distinct possibility. The place should be rocking tonight and it wouldn’t surprise one bit too see the Flyers dominate this game from the outset against this very suspect defense. Play: Philadelphia -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +1.09 over OTTAWA

This one is pretty much a no-brainer when you consider that the Ducks have had one bad game in their last 10 starts while the Sens have had one good game over that stretch. Well, ok, maybe more than one for the Sens but you get the point. Ottawa is a team that will not benefit from playing at home, where the pressure is far greater and the fans are very restless these days. Ottawa continues to be the most offensively challenged club in the NHL, aside from New Jersey, and that makes them a huge risk as a favorite. They’re tooth and nails to score two goals a game and they don’t have the reliable goaltending to win 2-1 games. The Ducks do. With all due respect to Carey Price, Tim Thomas, Ryan Miller and Cam Ward, Jonas Hiller might be the best of them all. The Ducks open a four-game trip to Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal and Columbus and every team in the league looks forward to the first three. Anaheim has five players on their roster born in Ontario and 10 overall born in Canada. The Ducks have won four of five and in two of those games they scored six and seven goals. In a game in which the visitor has the edge and then you throw in a tag, the Ducks have to be considered outstanding value. Play: Anaheim +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Charlie Scott

Michigan State vs. Illinois
Play: Michigan State +4.5

I'll take a shot and the points with the battle tested Spartans. I'm not impressed with Illinois so far this season. Michigan st will play their typical physical style and value & defend every possession, while Illinois plays soft and undisciplined at times. Take the points !

Craig Trapp

Georgetown vs. Seton Hall
Play: Georgetown -3.5

Many have jumped off the bandwagon of GTown but not us. Look they had a few tough losses to really good teams that all will be in the Big Dance. But, they have handled bad teams really well all year. SH is a bad team that has only one quality win all year. Gtown is a very well coached team that does not beat themselves and tonight the princeton offense will work its magic as they pull away late.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on North Carolina Tar Heels -5.5

Expect UNC to bounce back strong following an embarrassing loss at Georgia Tech in its last game. The Heels will draw added motivation from a 19-point loss at Clemson last season. The Heels are happy to be back home where they are 8-0 this season. Dating back to 1998, UNC has won 11 straight at home against the Tigers by an average score of 83 to 65. This is an ideal spot to back the Tar Heels. Consider that UNC is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. It is winning by an average score of 84.3 to 67.4 in this situation. Also, Clemson is just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents since the beginning of last season. In addition, the Tigers are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. UNC has more talent and the motivation to take care of business tonight. Lay the points.

Ben Burns

Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

I successfully played against the Canucks in their last game, releasing a "free play" on the Minnesota Wild. The Canucks were fairly decent sized favorites. However, the Wild won by a score of 4-0.

The Canucks are road favorites again tonight, albeit considerably smaller ones. Once again, I won't be surprised if they suffer an "upset" loss.

The Canucks are now 1-2 their last three games. They were blanked in both losses.

The Avalanche, on the other hand, have won two of three. They scored four or more in each victory. Their last game here at Colorado resulted in a 5-4 victory over the Red Wings.

The Canucks, who are dealing with a few injuries, are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip here. They haven't been home in more than a week. Having already gone 4-0 in this series so far this season, it may be easy to overlook the Avs and to get caught thinking ahead to the return trip to Vancouver.

Conversely, the Avs should be extremely motivated. The Canucks are the division leaders and they'd desperately like to beat them, if only once.

Despite their struggles against the Canucks, the Avs are still a lucrative 47-42 (+20) against winning teams, the past few seasons. That includes a 15-8 (+9.2) mark this year. Really, they've been able to beat practically every other "good" team - just not Vancouver.

The Avs are 10-6 (+5.7) the last 16 times that they were playing with "revenge," going a profitable 32-20 (+21.4) in that role the past few seasons.

If the Avs are ever going to beat their "nemesis," now should be as good a time as any. Consider Colorado

David Chan

Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins

I bet value where I see it and believe that the Penguins will be looking to bury the Red Wings tonight in front of the home town crowd.

Detroit is dealing with many significant injuries to key personnel, and I believe this will ultimately be the difference in the outcome of this game; Pavel Datsyuk, Danny Cleary, Mike Modano, Brad Stuart, and (most importantly for us) Jimmy Howard are all shelved for this contest.

That means that Joey McDonald gets the start in net for the Wings; McDonald is 1-3-1 with a 4.24 goals against lifetime vs. the Pens (note that Detroit is 2-3 [-3.9 units] in its last five non-conference games).

Sidney Crosby will once again be sitting this one out, but Jordan Staal has picked up the slack of late, and their Captains absence is the only major injury issue this team is dealing with at the moment.

Pittsburgh has now won back to back games (Montreal/Boston); I expect it to build off those victories without its leader in the lineup (note that Pittsburgh is 5-3 [+1.2 units] this season when playing with two-days of rest).

Marc-Andre Fleury has posted a 1.47 goals against average in his last four home games vs. Detroit.

All signs point to the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS as the sharp wager in this contest.

Tom Freese

Michigan at Northwestern
Prediction: Northwestern

Michigan is 11-5 straight up this year. The Wolverines are 6-16 ATS in road games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Michigan is 19-34 ATS after a loss where they scored less than 70 points. Northwestern is 11-5 straight up this year. The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS their last 12 home games and they 9-3 ATS following a straight up. The Wildcats are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Matt Fargo

Clemson vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -5

Clemson has won eight straight games but it hits the road for the first time since before Christmas as it has played five straight games on its home floor. The Tigers are 1-2 on the road this season with the only victory coming at Charleston and the losses coming against major conference teams South Carolina and fellow ACC team Florida St. The other bit of bad news for Clemson is the fact that it has not played since January 12th and that puts a major hurting on the momentum built from the winning streak. North Carolina is coming off an embarrassing loss on Sunday at Georgia Tech by 20 points. That snapped a five-game winning streak and it should provide motivation for a bounceback. The turnaround is a quick one as well and that will help more than hurt as the players want to get that game out of their minds right away. Also, after Tuesday’s game, North Carolina will have eight days off before playing at Miami next Wednesday so it needs to enter the break on a high. The other motivating factor for the Tar Heels is revenge. They were beaten badly last season in Clemson by 19 points but playing in Chapel Hill will turn that around. The Tar Heels won the last meeting at home by 24 points two years ago to improve to 54-0 at home over Clemson all-time, extending the longest win streak in NCAA history by one team over another at home. Incredibly, the North Carolina-Clemson game in Chapel Hill has been decided by single digits just twice in the past 28 years. Play on home favorites or pickems that are coming off a conference loss as a favorite going up against an opponent that is coming off a conference win by 20 points or more. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Clemson meanwhile is just 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning record and 1-8 ATS in its last nine ACC roadies. The Tar Heels meanwhile are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off a loss as a road favorite. 3* (518) North Carolina Tar Heels

Rocketman

Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Phoenix Coyotes

Nashville is 1-8 this year after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 4-1 SU and ATS at home vs Nashville the past 3 years. Predators are 6-20 in their last 26 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Coyotes are 26-8 in their last 34 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Coyotes are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. Central. Coyotes are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Coyotes are 20-8 in their last 28 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Coyotes are 32-15 in their last 47 games as a favorite. Favorite is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Home team is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings. Predators are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!