Rob Vinciletti
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte takes on the Bulls tonight as both teams come off road games with no rest. These two hooked up just 6 days ago in Charlotte with the Bobcats coming away with a 96-91 win. Tonight the Bulls fit a negative system that is 1-12 ats since 1995. What we want to do is play against home favorites of 5 or more with no rest if they scored 90 or more points as a dog of 5 or more and are now taking on an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog, had 25 or less assists and had 1 or more previous day of rest. If the total in these games is 180 or more our road team has covered 12 of 13 times. The Bulls are just 13-27 ats vs South East Division teams. Look for Charlotte to get the cover tonight.
Steve Janus
1* Kentucky -4
The Wildcats are by far the much better team, and should have no trouble beating Alabama by at least five points on the road. Alabama is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. Kentucky is 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5, and are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Alabama +4.5
Bama played Kentucky's stacked team tough twice last season, covering the spread in both meetings as a result. The Tide will be hungry for a straight up victory tonight, and they'll have an excellent chance at home where they are 9-0 this season. The key to Bama's home success is its defense. The Tide are only allowing 48.2 ppg on their home floor. I expect this tenacious "D" to really frustrate the Wildcats this evening. In addition, UK is just 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more. Take the points as Bama takes Kentucky down to the wire tonight.
Ray Monohan
Kentucky vs. Alabama
Play: Under 132½
#12 Kentucky (14-3, 2-1 SEC) vs. Alabama (10-7, 2-1 SEC) play each other tonight at 9:00 PM EST in an SEC matchup at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The 2 try to break the tie they share for first place in the SEC. Last game out for Kentucky a dominant 82-44 decision over LSU on Saturday, Kentucky moved to 14-3 overall and 2-1 in conference action. Thanks in large part to T. Jones, B. Knight, and D. Lamb Kentucky is generating 80.0 ppg. As for Alabama their 5 game streak came to an end with a 70-65 setback to Arkansas. Alabama has been a tough team to figure out, as they average just 67.5 points per game shooting 45.8 percent from the floor and are averaging 38.9 offensive rebounds per game. They are now 10-7 and return home where they are a perfect 9-0 to date, and are generating 67.5 ppg. What I really like about them is their defense that has led to the 10 wins. The Tide are limiting foes to 56.8 ppg on 35.8 percent shooting from the field. I expect them to keep this one close and to slow down the pace to fit their style. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of last 6 games for Bama when playing Kentucky. 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons, Under is 12-5 in ALAB last 17 Tue. games. Kentucky owns a commanding 100-35 series lead over Alabama, which includes five straight wins over the Tide. Bet the UNDER.
Info Plays
3* Clemson Tigers +5.5
Reasons why Clemson will cover:
1) Play on - an underdog (Clemson)- after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more, as its 193-120 since 1997. Clemson is 19-8 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since 1997.
2) North Carolina is just 1-8 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Southern Illinois -4
Off back-to-back losses on the road to two of the best teams in the MVC, Southern Illinois will be hungry to get back in the win column on its home floor against a school it has owned. The Salukis have won 6 of the L7 meetings in the series. They have also won 9 straight at home against the Purple Aces. Consider that the Purple Aces are just 4-18-2 ATS in the last 24 meetings and 1-11-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings at Southern Illinois. Evansville has really struggled on the road, dropping 6 of its 8 road contests this season. Take the Salukis.
Jack Jones
Nebraska -3.5
The Colorado Buffaloes are off to a tremendous start in Big 12 play, opening at 3-0 in the conference. Nebraska went through their non-conference schedule at 12-2, but have opened 1-2 in Big 12 play. But there is no shame in their two losses, as both game on the road at Missouri (69-77) and at Kansas (60-63). They easily covered the spread in both of those games and were expected to get blown out against those two ranked opponents. Two of Colorado's conference wins came at home, while the other was a road victory over Kansas State which is a team that is clearly overrated this year. Due to their 3-0 conference start, the Buffaloes are clearly overvalued tonight.
Nebraska is a perfect 12-0 at home this season. The Cornhuskers are scoring 71.7 PPG at home while allowing just 52.2 PPG. Their suffocating defense has the Huskers outscoring opponents by 19.5 PPG at home this year. Colorado is just 3-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in road games this season. The Buffaloes are playing little defense away from home, surrendering a whopping 76.6 PPG. The home team is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Nebraska is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with Colorado. Take Nebraska Tuesday.
Teddy Covers
Michigan State @ Illinois
Pick: Michigan State +4.5
There’s one role that I consistently look to support Tom Izzo’s Spartans in, year after year. Michigan State has a truly stellar track record stepping up in class on the highway; a team worth backing in this underdog role. The Spartans have been dogs twice this year, cashing in a wire-2-wire cover at Duke and a SU win in Hawaii against Washington.
This is nothing new or different. We saw the Spartans cash repeatedly down the stretch in this underdog role last year: wins over Maryland and Tennessee in the Big Dance, along with wins at Purdue and Minnesota in Big Ten play. In ’09 they cashed five SU winning tickets as underdogs in six tries prior to their national championship game loss to North Carolina. Michigan State’s veteran lineup, their mental toughness, and their ability to execute in hostile environments makes them worthy of support in this role on a year in, year out basis.
Illinois isn’t exactly blowing their opponents off the court in recent games. The Illini are coming off confidence sapping back-2-back losses against Wisconsin and Penn State, while the Spartans are coming off confidence inspiring back-2-back overtime wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern. Don’t expect Illinois to connect at a pace anywhere near their 52% shooting average at home this year; not against a Spartans defense that has held foes to 39 percent shooting for the season.
Michigan State has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams dating back to the ’07-’08 campaign. They’ve won at Assembly Hall in Champaign twice in the last three years, and are more than capable of doing it again tonight. 2* Take Michigan State
Larry Ness
Colorado @ Nebraska
PICK: Nebraska -3.5
The Buffaloes are off to a 14-4 start under first year head coach Tad Boyle, including a 3-0 Big 12 record. The Buffs are a perfect 11-0 at home and enter this game in Lincoln on a seven-game winning streak. Nebraska had won 11 straight games before going on a brutal two-game Big 12 road trip to Columbia and Lawrence (it doesn't get much tougher than that). Doc Sadler's team lost both games but did 'sneak' under the number both times. The 13-4 Cornhuskers will be glad to get home, where they are a perfect 12-0 in the Devaney Sports Center. Nebraska is an unique team, as its two leading scorers are 6-11 center Diaz (10.2-4.9) and sophomore PG Jeter (10.2-3.8-4.3). However, the whole always seems to be greater than the sum of its parts with Nebraska, which is holding opponents to 55.5 PPG (3rd in the nation) and 35.1 percent shooting (2nd-best in the nation). The Buffs are a high-scoring outfit (83.9 PPG and 49.2 FG percentage / both ranking 8th!), led by big guards Burks (19.7) and Higgins (16.6). One could argue that the Cornhuskers will have trouble matching up against the 6-6 Burks and the 6-5 Higgins on the perimeter but Sadler's team seems to "find a way." I'm betting the Cornhuskers "find a way," tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
SETON HALL +4 over Georgetown
The Hoyas come in as the 23rd ranked team in the nation and once again we have a ranked team laying points on the road against an unranked opponent. These small lines are designed to attract action on the favorite and more often than, if you lay the points you end up ripping your ticket. Seton Hall has very recently played three ranked teams, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt and they were bludgeoned in two of them, both on the road. They lost at home to the Orange by just five and that’s significant. That was without Jeremy Hazell, who joined the team two games ago and will now be back for his third game after a gunshot wound on Christmas day. Hazell is an impact player that gives the Hall another option and could easily go off for 20 or more. Then there’s Herb Pope and he could be the difference if he’s effective inside. The Hoyas are without any big men in the middle and that’s an area the Hall has to exploit. The Hoyas are a great shooting team but that hasn’t prevented them from losing games. They’ve already lost to Notre Dame, St. John’s, West Virginia and Pitt with only two wins in the conference coming against DePaul and Rutgers, not exactly the cream of the crop. The Hoyas really haven’t proven that they’re a top team yet and even their win over Missouri earlier in the year came in OT in a game they were very fortunate to even get to OT. The Hoyas hit a three-pointer with 13 seconds remaining to send it to extra time. The Hoyas are most certainly a beatable ranked team and the small number suggests that their road struggles are not an aberration. Play: Seton Hall +4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
King Creole | CBB Sides
Michigan St. +4
The Spartans have historically been a GREAT underdog in Conference play... particularly against teams that are in the midst of a multiple-game losing streak (like the Illini). MICHIGAN STATE has gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS since the 2003 season as Big 10 UNDERDOGS versus any opponent off BB SU and ATS losses (like Illinois). Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are NOT a team to play on when favored off multiple losses. ILLINOIS is 1-8 ATS since 1995 as Conference home favorites of -7 or less points playing off BB SU losses. Also 1-9 ATS at home versus teams with a current LOSING (< .500) road record (like the SPARTANS).
For a lot of players, they don't care about what happened last year... or 5 years ago... or 10 years ago. All they care about is the "Here and Now". So we present a System that pertains to this season only. It;s actually quite a simple 'play ON' situation.
13-3 ATS so far this year: All CONFERENCE road underdogs of 6 < points (MICH ST) versus any opponent off BB SU and ATS losses (Illinois). When playing with the confidence of a SU win under their belts (like the Spartans), these teams have gone 9-1 ATS.
Michigan State has won two games in a row (vs Northwestern and Wisconsin BOTH on overtime)... but did not COVER the spread in either game.
7-0 ATS last 3 seasons: All Conference underdogs off BB SU wins BUT BB ATS losses.... when they were a favorite of LESS than 10 points in each game (MICHIGAN STATE).
Speaking of OVERTIME.... let's finish things off with a Playbook database query. It looks like there is still plenty of DOG value off these thrilling wins.
7-1 ATS since 2003: All Conference underdogs playing off BB Overtime wins in a row (MICH ST)... versus any .600 or greater conference opponent (Illinois).
JR O'Donnell
Tennessee +4
The 11-6 Tennessee Vols off a "Big Big Win" vs the Vanderbilt Commes over the weekend as the Jeckyl & Hyde Vols under the interim head coaches Tory Jones, Forbes and Shay are the "play".... The Vols were down by as many as 17 points to the Vandy Crew last game and stormed back to W! The Vols are @ UCONN next game and if there ever is a MUST- WIN game boys , this is it... The Georgia Dawgs are 3-10 ats vs these Vols and a soft 13-3 and they do have holes! The Georgia Dawgs do possess Gerald Robinson who can fill it up, The Dawgs hit 26-27 free throws last game vs the Ole Miss Rebels. These Vols will play out of there mind tonight. Let's play the Vols to pound some body tonight as they have the Huskies @ STORRES on deck!!!! The Vols need to bring a "W" into U Conn...... Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog & Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Sac Lawson
North Carolina / Clemson Over 138
Fact is, North Carolina wants to play each and every game in the 80's. They are at their absolute best when they get out and run. Teams like Virginia and V-Tech kept them in the 60's, and a lot of that had to do with defensive physicality. That's not necessarily something you'll see from Clemson. Clemson is a good defensive team, but they beat you with speed, ball-hawking type pressure, not necessarily pure strength.
Clemson's tempo is very dependent on their opponent. They have guards that love to get out and run, but often times they allow themselves to fall into halfcourt sets against slower paced teams. If UNC gets out to run early, I guarantee Clemson will oblige.
I like this line moving toward Clemson a little bit. The only way they cover this game is if they force turnovers and get out in transition. They simply don't have the size, aside from Booker, to contend in a halfcourt competition.
Both teams would be best served to play a transition style game in the mid-70's here. And that's what I expect. Don't be surprised to see some final minute foul fest action help this one go over, either. Take the OVER for 1.5 units.