DAVE COKIN
BRUINS AT CANADIENS
PLAY: BRUINS -105
If you’re a history buff, you might well be considering Montreal as a play tonight. The Canadiens have enjoyed enormous success against the Bruins, particularly on the ice surface at Montreal. But it’s the most recent result between these two Original Six franchises that has me looking the visitor’s way tonight.
Over the course of the lengthy NHL regular season, there aren’t all that many games that teams specifically circle as must win. But I think we have one of those this evening. The Bruins don’t need total recall to reflect on what took place on January 1. The latest NHL Winter Classic at Foxboro, home of the Patriots, was a disaster for the Bruins. They were outplayed badly by Montreal in an eventual 5-1 Canadiens romp. Head coach Claude Julian was downplaying the revenge angle at practice on Monday, but the players know the score and this is a game the Bruins want very badly.
As crazy as the domination in this series has been for the Habs, they’re not a very good hockey team right now. Since opening the campaign with a phenomenal 9-0 run, Montreal has won only 14 of its last 37 games. The goaltending has been perhaps better than expected considering the lengthy absence of the brilliant Carey Price. But overall, the Habs haven’t been much and the truth is they’re really not a playoff caliber team right now.
The Bruins have had a peculiar season, in that they’ve been a much better team on the road than at home. They’re arriving in Montreal with at least a bit of momentum off back to back wins. Tuukka Rask continues to be plagued by some madding inconsistency, and the veteran goalie has some gnarly numbers against the Canadiens. So there are some concerns on that count tonight.
But the bottom line for me is that the circumstances here make this what might well be the biggest game to date so far this season for Boston. In spite of their issues with this opponent, I think the Bruins come out flying tonight, and Montreal is a team ripe for the taking currently. In a pick ’em situation, I’ll back the Bruins.
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee at Miami
Play: Over 192½
This game fits a powerful totals system cashing over 80% long term. We are playing the over for Home favorites, like Miami that failed to cover by 7 or more points as a road dog and scored 80 or less points, vs an opponent like Milwaukee that scored 100 or more and covered as a road dog by at least 7 points. Miami should ramp things up here after scoring just 74 last out. The Bucks fit 3 different Totals angles pointing to the over as well.
Jim Feist
Milwaukee at Miami
Play: Under 192½
The Milwaukee Bucks are on the road and 8-1-2 under the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Miami is home and great on defense, No. 3 in points allowed. The Heat are 42-16-1 under the total when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. And when these teams meet the under is 18-7-2, including 11-4-1under the total in the last 16 meetings in Miami.
Will Rogers
Clemson vs. Virginia
Play: Clemson +10
The Clemson Tigers have won five straight, and during that time they upset three ranked opponents. Still they are a double-digit dog on the road tonight in Virginia. The Cavs have lost three of their last four, and I think they're going to struggle to blowout a hot Clemson team, even at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Jaron Blossomgame - The Tigers junior forward leads the ACC averaging over 17 points per game, and he scored a season high 25 points in the win over Miami. "We had a chance to win (at North Carolina). Ever since then we felt really confident," Blossomgame said. "That's taken this team to where it is right now. The sky's the limit for this team."
2. Clemson On A Roll - The Tigers have averaged 73.6 points on 45.4 percent shooting, hitting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc, and better than 80 percent from the free throw line over their last five games.
3. X-Factor - The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record.
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5½
Tough spot for the Heat who are home for one night before traveling to D.C.! Miami just finished a six-game, 10 day road trip and will have to pack up and hit the road again following this game. Miami has won just two of their last seven games SU, including a loss to New York in the final home game before heading out on the road. Milwaukee has won three of their last four and six of 10, playing competitive basketball. They're on a 10-5-1 ATS run, including four straight underdog covers, winning three of those games, outright. The Bucks have also covered four straight in this series, while the Heat are on a 7-22 ATS slide at home off a road trip of at least seven days.
Brandon Shively
Clemson vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -9½
Big kudos goes out to this Clemson team for winning three straight games at home vs. ranked teams (Louisville, Duke, and Miami Florida). Now after playing three consecutive games at home, the Tigers find themselves in 2nd place in the ACC, surprisingly. This all sets the stage for tonight's game against Virginia. Virginia, the ACC champion the last two years, who are coming off a loss Sunday at Florida State. They now are 2-3 in ACC play and need a 'statement' win like a hog needs slop. The Cavaliers still have a dominant advantage on their home court. They are 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS their last 16 home games in January. Virginia has waxed Clemson in the last two home meetings by 23 and 37 points. Last year the Cavaliers were a 16.5 point home favorite in this game. While Clemson appears to be improved and while Virginia is not as strong, this is still a 'kill spot' for Virginia and a HUGE let-down spot for Clemson. There will be value with this line as the odds makers are starting to give Clemson more respect than they deserve in my opinion. Take Virginia to get the cover in this classic 'triple let-down' spot for Clemson.
Ben Burns
Thunder vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets +8½
The Nuggets welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Pepsi Center Tuesday, playing some solid basketball in their recent games. Denver has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four outings, with signature wins over Golden State and Indiana. Another big-name opponent is up on the schedule in OKC, which is in a tough travel spot, flying to Denver for this one game before heading directly home to play Wednesday. The Thunder haven’t been the same team away from Oklahoma City, going just 6-11 ATS on the road while allowing 102.6 points per game as visitors. OKC has put it on Denver twice already this season but the Nuggets are playing at a higher level and we like the value with this big number.
Larry Ness
Dayton at St. Bonaventure
Play: St. Bonaventure
Dayton won 27 games last season, losing its second game in the NCAA tourney. FOUR of five starters were set to return this season, as the Flyers were expected to lose only guard Siebert. That?s NOT to say that Siebert's 16.1 PPG weren't a big loss but a trio of guards, as well as the 6-6 Pierre and the 6-7 Pollard gave this team top-25 expectations. However, Pierre (12.7 & 8.1 last year) had off court issues and was not reinstated until Dec 30. He's played six games, averaging 13.3 & 6.8 but now Pollard (10.4-4.9) is dealing with an Achilles issue. He was scoreless in 20 minutes in Dayton's last game and on Jan 2, played just 15 minutes with four points and three rebounds.
All that said, Dayton just fell out of the top-25 two Mondays ago and checks in at 14-3. The team's backcourt has been VERY good. Cooke (15.7-6.3) leads the way, along with Smith (10.5-4.9 APG), Kyle Davis (8.5) and Derrell Davis (6.6) adding points off the bench. 6-11 freshman McElvene (7.1-7.1) really helped the frontcourt greatly while Pierre was ineligible and continues to be important with Pollard dealing with an injury.
St Bonaventure had won NINE of 10, including FIVE in a row (also 5-0 ATS) heading into Saturday's game at Duquesne, but lost 95-88 with the Dukes shooting a blistering 52.5 percent from the floor. That happens but St Bonny's returns to Olean where the the team is 8-1 and it's not often one sees a team with three players scoring at least 16 PPG. The Bonnies are led by guards Posley (17.7-3.8) and Adams (17.6-3.4-4.9), joined by 6-7 forward Wright (16.1-8.7). The 6-7 Gregg comes off the bench to add 10.6 & 5.4. This is a major revenge game (triple, in fact), as Mark Schmidt's team lost three times to Dayton last season, including a bitter 75-71 loss in the A-10 Tourney.
Matt Fargo
Tulsa vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina +8
This has been a very tough start for East Carolina in its second season in the AAC as the Pirates are 0-5. It started with a three-point home loss against UCF with a free throw disadvantage being the story. Since then, they have lost three games on the road and the only other home game came in a loss against 17-0 SMU. East Carolina is 7-2 at home with seven straight wins to open the season. Tulsa has gotten off to a decent start in the conference with a 3-2 record which includes wins in three straight games. The last one came at home against Connecticut in a mild upset which is playing a part in this line. This is an early season revenge game for the Pirates which lost at Tulsa 55-43 exactly two weeks ago and we seeing an underadjusted line shift based on the venue change. The Golden Hurricane were favored by 12 points at home and based on the court change, the line should be sitting around 4 or 5 so clearly the right adjustment has not been made. The Pirates fall into a revenge situation as well where we play on home teams that are revenging a loss where it scored less than 50 points, off a road loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 117-67 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1997. Additionally, the Pirates are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
This spread looks low to me. Sure, the Heat are off a largely unsuccessful road trip that saw them go just 2-4 straight up w/ the wins coming at the expense of lowly Phoenix & Denver. But it's the Bucks they'll be hosting Tuesday and despite a four-game ATS win streak for Milwaukee, I see this one going Miami's way. Lay the pts.
This will be Miami's ONLY home game over a three-week stretch. They head back out on the road tomorrow for the next five games, taking them almost to the end of the month. Therefore, I expect some "added importance" to be placed on playing well here. The Heat are a solid 15-8 SU at home this season and the key is that they score about six more points per game here than they do on the road. The Bucks, despite winning on the road their last time out, remain just 6-18 SU away from home for the season.
Believe it or not, but the Bucks actually swept the season series (4-0!) from the Heat last year. This will be the teams' first time matching up this season. I mentioned earlier that Milwaukee is off a road win. They beat Charlotte 105-92 as 5.5 pt dogs on Saturday. But they are just 1-5 ATS this season coming off a double digit win. Defensively, they still are giving up 106.0 PPG on the road. Miami will be a desperate team tonight and I expect them to play well despite all the injuries.
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee +5.5
First off, Milwaukee is playing better. The Bucks are 4-2, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games defeating the Mavericks, Bulls, Hawks and Hornets during this stretch. The Bucks are fresh, too, having been idle the past two days.
The Bucks have one of the most underrated players in the NBA, Khris Middleton. Very few players this month have been better than Middleton, who is averaging 24.1 points and shooting 51.3 percent from the field during his last 11 games.
Milwaukee has matched up well to Miami sweeping all four games last season. The Heat have lost five of their last seven, are in a brutal spot and have multiple injuries, including a cluster injury problem at point guard.
The Heat just finished a six-game road trip on Sunday night in Oklahoma City arriving back in Miami in the early Monday morning hours. The Heat players hardly have any time to get their personal things back in store after being gone for 11 days before heading back on the road immediately following this game for a Wednesday matchup against the Wizards, the first of five more consecutive road games. That could affect their concentration and focus.
Because of this hectic, unusual and unfair bit of scheduling the Heat couldn't practice on Monday. This is made worse because Miami is going through roster adjustments due to injuries. The Heat have used five different starting lineups in their last five games.
Miami's depth is seriously depleted down possibly six players. Out are starting point guard Goran Dragic and his veteran backup Beno Udrih leaving Tyler Johnson to likely start. Dwayne Wade, who missed Friday's game because of soreness in both his shoulders, could share some of the ball-handling. Johnson isn't 100 percent either with a sore shoulder. Key reserve Gerald Green left the Heat's loss to the Thunder on Sunday with knee soreness playing less than 12 minutes.
Miami center Hassan Whiteside is battling knee soreness, too. The Heat already are down two other big men with Chris Andersen and Josh McRoberts out. The Bucks outrebounded Miami by more than 10 per game last season and have pulled down 45 more rebounds than their opponents during the past three games.
The Heat scored only 74 points against the Thunder, who give up an average of 100 points per game. It's asking a lot for the Heat to cover this margin considering their injuries, tough situation and how well the Bucks are playing and rebounding.
Alex Smart
Minnesota at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -4½
Minnesota despite of breaking a 9 game losing streak last time out, against a Suns team that is even more disarray themselves are far from viable bets, and still on my active fade list. Yes, they beat the Phoenix Suns by a impressive 117-87 count . However, it must be noted that the Wolves were favs in that tilt and in the past when they played as chalk have followed up those contests with a ugly 1-9 ATS mark. Hey I know this Wolves side is eventually going to be a decent team, but their mistakes are consistently just to numerous. From a ATS standpoint, the Wolves have also covered 3 of their L/4, but once again this is not necessarily a good omen, as they are just 1-13 ATS L/14 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread, dating back to last season . Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have shown some promise of late , winning 2 of 3 and off a close 101-99 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Overall, the Pelicans have however, been a disappointment, but its not like the Wolves have been able to take advantage of these types of teams that have been outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points a game, registering a lowly 7-21 ATS mark against these types of lowly sides. Also from a league wide trends archive it shows teams like Minnesota that are off a cover that beat the spread by 24 or more points and own a win % of .250 to .400 have crashed and burned in 26 of their 32 follow up opportunities.
Jeff Saad
Boston at Montreal
Play Boston
Montreal is a home favorite in this rivalry game but can't get anything going, losing 4 in a row. Boston has more road wins than Montreal has at home and the Canadiens are 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bruins are 15-7 in their last 22 vs. the Eastern Conference. And the road team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Mr. Vegas
Indiana at Phoenix
Play: Over
Phoenix Suns had a big win to end a miserable losing streak, but have lost 4 in a row since giving up 117, 116 and 117 the last three games! The Suns are 5-2 over the total following a straight up loss, plus 4-0 over against the Eastern Conference. Indiana is hungry for a win, after a tough loss at Denver, but the Pacers have a strong offense, No. 8 in the NBA in scoring. They gave up 129 points the previous game, a running offense, on a 4-1 run over the total.
FRANK JORDAN
Thunder vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 212
These two teams played in OKC back in the first week of the season with the Thunder winning 117-93 and again in OKC in late December with the Thunder winning once again 122-112. Oklahoma City is scoring 108 points per game and Denver is around 100 points per game and when these two teams meet defense goes out the window as it is a scoring fest especially with this game in Denver where the air is thin, scoring is high and the pace frantic. Look for a high paced game back and forth with both teams scoring over 100 points and the total reaching at least 215.