Alex Smith
Calgary at New Jersey
Play: Calgary +100
The New Jersey Devils return home after a four-game road trip to host the Calgary Flames at the Prudential Center. Both clubs enter this contest losing three of their last five games but the Devils are struggling to find consistent scoring while Calgary's defensive woes have spoiled their recent outburst of offensive production. The Flames lost to division rival San Jose last week 5-4 in a contest where they outshot the Sharks 35-18. The off night by goaltender Karri Ramo, who played all 60 minutes and made 13 saves, forced head Bob Hartley to turn to veteran netminder Jonas Hiller for the next two games. Hiller, who hadn't started for the Flames since December 12th, split the pair of games. He first posted a 15-save shutout in a 6-0 blowout victory over the red hot Florida Panthers and then made 35 stops in a tough 2-1 shootout loss to Edmonton. The 33-year-old Swiss goalie will start once again against the Devils where he holds a 2-2-2 lifetime record. New Jersey will counter in net with Cory Schneider, who is 4-5 in his career versus Calgary with most of his starts coming as a member of the Vancouver Canucks early in his career. New Jersey went 2-2 on their recent road trip, and now return home, where they have lost four of their last six games. Calgary has struggled on the road all season with a 6-11-3 mark away from the Saddledome. However, they are catching a tired team that will be missing some key pieces for this contest. Devils forwards Jiri Tlusty, Mike Cammalleri and Kyle Palmeri are all dealing with injuries, while defenseman Jonathon Merrill is out with an upper body issue and forward Bobby Farnham is missing the third game of a four-game suspension for his vicious hit on St. Louis winger Dmitrij Jaskin last week. I'll side with the Flames here to look to pick up a pair of points in the Garden State tonight.
Wunderdog
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State +9.5
Oklahoma State is hungry and home while riding a four-game skid. They lost the last two games by five and two points despite being a dog of eight points in each of them. Now they are home against a Kansas team they've done well against, winning two straight on this court against the Jayhawks. After losing at West Virginia last Tuesday (74-63), Kansas missed 15 of its 20 three-pointers and shot 43.3 percent overall in a seven-point home win against TCU on Saturday as -23 chalk. Kansas is on a 4-10 ATS run in Big 12 play. The Oklahoma State Cowboys field a solid defensive unit that ranks second in the Big 12 in scoring defense at 65.5 points per game. OSU is holding its opponents to 39.2 percent shooting, which ranks third in the league and #27 in the country. Oklahoma State upset Kansas 67-62 last season as the Cowboys held the Jayhawks to 39.6 percent shooting with 18 turnovers. Oklahoma State has taken four of the last six from Kansas in Gallagher-Iba Arena, including the last two meetings. The Cowboys are the only team to beat Kansas in each of the last three seasons, which includes an 85-80 win over the #2 Jayhawks in Lawrence and last year's 67-62 win over #8 Kansas in Stillwater. The last seven head-to-head meetings overall between the two teams have been decided by a grand total of three points, so grab the hungry home dog and play Oklahoma State.
Nelly
NC State + over Pittsburgh
As usual Pittsburgh has accumulated a strong early season record through a light early season schedule, now sitting at 15-2 on the season. Pittsburgh lost by double-digits in the toughest two games however as the Panthers may not deserve to be considered in the upper echelon of the ACC. NC State is 0-5 in ACC play but the losses have come by 5, 5, 3, 7, and 12 last Saturday at North Carolina. This team has wins over LSU, Missouri, and Northeastern this season and the Wolfpack are a threat to make a late season climb as this is a young team with significant talent. NC State can negate the size edge that Pittsburgh often has as only one regular is below 6'7" and that is junior Anthony Barber who is one of the quickest guards in the country and still stands at 6'2". NC State beat Pittsburgh twice last season as this is a matchup they should take confidence into even with the tough start to the conference season. NC State is a great rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over and while the Pittsburgh offense has had successful numbers it has mostly been built against light competition. Even with the soft slate the Pittsburgh defense has struggled and with both teams being among the slower paced squads in the nation this steep spread will b worth even more to the underdog.
David Banks
Butler Bulldogs @ Providence Friars
Pick: Butler Bulldogs+1.5
Two of the Big East’s best clash for a second time Tuesday night as No. 12 Providence plays host to No. 23 Butler. The two teams met on New Year’s Eve in Indianapolis as Friars star guard Kris Dunn and teammate Rodney Bullock led a second-half comeback to beat the Bulldogs, 81-73. If either team is going to make a move in the conference standings, now is the time.
Providence, 15-3 overall, is 3-2 in Big East play. Their two losses in the conference have come in their last three games. They were upset 65-64 by Marquette (12-6, 2-4) and then lost to Seton Hall (13-4, 3-2) 81-72. The Friars revolve around the play of Dunn, the preseason favorite to repeat as Big East Player of the Year. Dunn averages 17.8 points per game, 6.7 assists, and 6.3 rebounds. In the first meeting with Butler, Dunn was plagued by foul trouble in the first half. Bullock, a 6-8 sophomore, scored a career-high 25 points in that win over the Bulldogs and is third on the team in scoring averaging 13 points per contest.
The Friars’ leading scorer and rebounder is 6-9 forward Ben Bentil who averages 19.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. Bentil hit his average in the first matchup with Butler and hit a crucial 3-pointer in the second half that gave Providence the lead for good.
Butler plays a smaller lineup and will have to get outstanding play from its backcourt which is led by Roosevelt Jones. Jones, 6-4, averages 14.1 points and actually leads the Bulldogs in rebounding averaging 7.1 a game. Jones, Kelan Martin (14.0 ppg), and Kellen Dunham (15.8 ppg) are going to have to share the duty of defending Dunn while also contributing on the offensive end. And, this time they have to do it away from home.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Bulldogs of Miss State plus the generous impost at Florida.
The Bulldogs well remember their last trip to the Sunshine State, as Florida wiped the court with Miss State, 72-47 last January!
Look for things to be a lot closer this time around, as Miss State does hold spread covers in 8 of their last 11 lined games, and while this program is rebuilding under first year coach Ben Howland, the same can be said for the up and down Gators who have alternated wins and losses over their last 7 games.
Florida was in the win column last time out, and if the pattern follows, you know what that means! Actually, I don't think the Gators will lose this one outright, but I can see them failing to cover this big impost.
Closer than expected tonight in Gatorland.
Take the points.
4* MISS STATE
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Indiana Hoosiers minus the big number at home over the Illinois Fightin' Illini. At the time of this writing, the Hoosiers are laying 11 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
The Hoosiers are one of the hottest teams in the country right now and will look to make it 11 straight wins tonight when they host struggling Illinois.
Right now, Indiana is tied with Iowa atop the Big 10 Conference standings, both with perfect 5-0 conference records.
Indiana's offense is unstoppable right now, averaging 85 ppg during their current run, leading the Big 10 in total offense. They're doing it all... hitting shots, hitting free throws and converting on turnovers.
Illinois has won only one conference game so far and they're in danger of going under .500 for the first time this season.
Take the Hoosiers in a blowout win at Assembly Hall tonight.
1* INDIANA
Brad Wilton
My Tuesday night comp play is the upstart Tigers of Clemson to keep it closer than expected in Charlottesville against the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Brad Brownell's team has come up with upset wins over ranked teams each of their last 3 times on the hardwood! The Tigers in fact have won each of their last 5 games, and they have covered in each of their last 6 games.
Hard to buck those numbers, especially when you consider that Virginia has gone down to outright defeat in 3 of their last 4 both straight up and against the spread.
Clemson will want some redemption from their last visit to Virginia when they were waxed 65-42 just over a year ago.
Overall the Tigers are 5-3-1 against the spread the last 9 series meetings.
Take the points and look for the Tigers to stay hot.
3* CLEMSON
DAVE PRICE
Mississippi State +11.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with this Mississippi State team that is just 7-9 on the season and 0-4 in SEC play. The oddsmakers are forced to tack a few extra points onto Florida tonight because of this, which has created some nice line value to swoop in and grab the points with the Bulldogs. They have been competitive in 3 of their 4 SEC games with a 1-point loss to Texas A&M, a 6-point loss at Kentucky, and a 5-point loss to Tennessee. Those results alone show just how much progress this team has made this season, and that they are more than capable of staying within 11.5 of Florida tonight. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. The Gators are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
BRANDON LEE
Bucks +5.5
The Heat will be returning home after a lengthy 6-game road trip on the west coast and won't have long to enjoy it, as they have to go back on the road for 5 more games following tonight's contest. Miami is not only dealing with major fatigue and jet lag, but they have been decimated with injuries. Several key players won't be available and others will be playing through injuries. I just think this is too many points for the Heat to be laying given the circumstances. The Bucks are playing well of late with 3 wins in their last 4 games, plus they won all 4 meetings against Miami last year, so we know they matchup well with them. Milwaukee is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 and Miami is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing 2 straight against the Western Conference.
JIMMY BOYD
Alabama -2½
This line really says it all in terms of who the books think has the edge in this big in-state rivalry. Alabama comes in off a 63-71 loss at Vanderbilt and are just 1-3 to start out conference play. Auburn on the other hand is fresh off a huge 75-70 upset win at home over Kentucky as a 12-point dog and are 2-3 in league play. The betting public is going to be all over Auburn getting points at home, which has me leaning towards the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is the better team and have won 3 straight in the series, including a 79-68 win in their last trip to Auburn as a 1-point favorite. The biggest thing here is the Tigers are going to find it extremely difficult to bounce back with that same kind of effort that they played with against Kentucky. Keep in mind they followed up a 83-77 win at home against Tennessee with a 69-81 defeat at home to South Carolina.
Auburn hasn't won consecutive games since beating Georgia Southern, Northwestern St and Coastal Carolina way back in the first 5 games of the season. You also have to look at their losses. Not only did they lose by 12 at home to South Carolina, they lost by 15 on the road against Missouri and 18 at Vanderbilt.
Crimson Tide are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 off a conference loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after a defeat.
JACK JONES
Nuggets +8½
The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I believe we are getting them at a great price here tonight as 8.5-point home underdogs give the way they are performing of late.
The Nuggets are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes upset home wins of Golden State as 9.5-point dogs and Indiana as 2-point dogs. In fact, the Nuggets haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 7 points, so they have been competitive in every game.
The Thunder are also playing their best basketball coming in with four straight victories, but three of the four have come at home, and two have been against Minnesota. I believe the Thunder are overvalued right now as oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to continue to back them while wanting nothing to do with the Nuggets.
The Thunder are 10-7 SU & 5-11 ATS in all road games this season. Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in road games after a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last three seasons. Denver is 142-98 ATS in its last 240 home games after having won two of its last three coming in. The Thunder are 5-14 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Nuggets are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
ASA
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia State -11
Georgia State is one of the top teams in the Sun Belt and they are off a bad home loss which is a rarity. GSU’s 87-54 loss here on Saturday to UL Lafayette was just their 2nd home loss in their last 35 games here at GSU Sports Arena. Head coach Ron Hunter was blunt about the whipping after the game, “We got our butt whipped today, every facet, every way,” he said. “That’s not something we are used to here.” After that performance, we look for this very experienced GSU team (3 seniors & 1 junior in the starting line up) to play at their peak tonight. They take on a Georgia Southern team that had almost no experience coming into this season. The Eagles are the 2nd most inexperienced team in the nation. They start 2 freshmen and 3 sophomores and only 3 players on this team made any type of contribution last season. They are just 1-6 on the road this season and the Eagles are coming off a 4 game home stand so it’s been a few weeks since this young team ventured away from their friendly confines. While Georgia State is coming off an embarrassing upset loss, Georgia Southern is off a home upset win over UL Monroe. That sets us up nicely here. Southern has the ingredients to be a very poor road team as they are young, they don’t shoot the ball well (318th nationally in eFG%), AND they don’t defend well (324th in eFG% defense). This is a very important game for Georgia State (11-4 overall record) as they leave on a 3 game road trip after this one. This has the makings of a blowout and we’ll lay the number.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS -1½ +161 over Vancouver
OT included. One must give the Canucks credit for the fight they have in them with the least talented team in the NHL. From their porous defense to their breakdown of four lines, it’s a minor miracle that the Canucks have more victories than the Maple Leafs and the same amount as the ‘Canes, Ducks, Oilers and Sabres. The Canucks are coming off back-to-back victories over Carolina and the Islanders in the second and third stops of their current six-game trip. That’s another minor miracle. In the first three games of this trip, Vancouver was outshot 40-30, 40-22 and 48-26. Now the Canucks have lost one of their best possession players in Henrik Sedin and he joins their best defensemen, Dan Hamhuis, on the rack. The Canucks strength is their penalty killing because they get a lot of practice at it. The only chance the Canucks have here is Ryan Miller coming up with the game of his life. The Canucks will get dominated in this game by a tremendously hungry host.
We were down on the Rangers at the start for the first 10 weeks of the season but that was then and this is now. The Rangers are playing with so much more commitment now without the results to show for it. That will change and now the Rangers are on the verge of another big run. The Rangers are coming off a 5-2 loss to the Capitals. Prior to that, they defeated Philadelphia after losing to the Islanders. The loss to the Isles was completely undeserving, as the Blue Shirts dominated the first two periods and should have taken a three goal lead to the third. A series of bizarre bounces and goalposts hit meant it was just one of those very unfortunate games. Prior to that, New York picked up five out of a possible six points with victories over Dallas (6-2), Boston (2-1) and an OT loss to the Caps. We are seeing a hunger in the Rangers now that we didn’t see earlier in the season. The Rangers have made a couple of minor tweaks to their top two lines and it’s been paying off in terms of possession numbers but not in victories. Incredibly, the Rangers have not won consecutive games since November 21-23. That, too, is about to change and they could not have handpicked a more ripe opponent to sweep the ice with than these Canucks, a team they have lost two straight to.
Calgary +104 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. As much as we cannot stomach backing the Flames with Jonas Hiller in net, we are willing to roll the dice in this one because the Flames are a pooch and the situation is too great to pass up. New Jersey returns home from a four-game trip through Minnesota, St. Louis, Colorado and Arizona. When you include the first game of that trip in which they went from the East Coast to the Midwest and this game in which they went from the West Coast to the East Coast, what we’re looking at is four different time zones in nine days. In five of their past seven games, the Devils have recorded 22, 20, 20, 17 and 16 shots on net respectively. We cannot overstate enough how low a teams’ win expectation is when they’re firing away 6½ shots on net per period. Offensively challenged to begin with, depleted and returning home from a tough trip, the Devils are in no position to be favored against the hungry Flames.
In two of their last three games, the Flames allowed 15 and 18 shots on net respectively. When the Flames played a much healthier Devils team back on November 17, they allowed just 18 shots on net. Calgary plays the second of a five-game road trip after a 2-1 shootout loss against the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday. The players are calling this trip their most crucial of the season that will go a long way in determining whether or not they make the playoffs. That’s how much emphasis Calgary is putting on this trip and although they picked up a point in Edmonton, starting off with a loss figures to motivate them even more. Aside from that, the Flames are playing well. They have three wins, an OT loss and two, one goal losses over their past six games. We could just as easily be discussing a team on a six-game winning streak. When they lost recently to the Sharks, the Flames outshot them 35-18. There is always danger in backing the team with the inferior goaltending but the Flames are in a position here to have a dominating performance and if the goaltending matchup does us in, so be it.
MONTREAL-½ +146 over Boston
Regulation only. The Bruins want this game badly. They have defeated the Canadiens once this year but that’s little consolation for losing 11 of the past 12 games against this hated rival, not to mention a playoff series too. Then there was the most recent meeting at this year’s Winter Classic in Foxboro. That game looked like the Harlem Globetrotters against the Washington Generals. From the opening faceoff to the final buzzer, Montreal humiliated Boston in a 5-1 victory in the most exposed hockey game of the year. A response by the Bruins is in order and they have to licking their chops to get at the Habs. After all, Montreal is in free-fall mode and it seems to be getting worse. Boston has also won two games in a row and scored a combined seven goals. Yes indeed, it sure appears that this is as good a time as any for the B’s to get this proverbial monkey off their backs but it is not.
Montreal has dropped 16 of its past 20 games. They have also lost four in a row and have just one victory since the aforementioned Classic. That lone victory occurred against the depleted Devils. Montreal has gone from one extreme at the beginning of the year, when they could not lose, to another extreme now, where they can’t win a game. Somewhere in between all of that, there is a middle ground. Put aside wins and losses for a second. Montreal was not as good as their hot start and in no way are they even close to being as poor as their current run. This exact same team could take the ice for 30 seasons in a row and not lose 16 out of 20 games. The Carey Price being out explanation has some validity to it but that’s not the reason Montreal has lost so many games recently. Mike Condon has filled in admirably. Montreal has simply run into some extreme bad luck. They are dominating games and losing. Saturday in St. Louis was a prime example of that when they outplayed the Blues by a wider margin than they outplayed the Bruins in the Classic. Montreal outshot the Blues, 49-22 and out-Corsied them, 75-43. In a 2-1 loss to the Blackhawks prior to losing to St. Louis, Montreal fired away 40 shots on net. The Habs most recent loss, again against the Blackhawks, came on Sunday after the demoralizing loss the night before in St. Louis. Montreal is actually playing MUCH better now than they were when they won their first 10 games of the season but that’s not what folks see. Most see wins and losses but we’re here to suggest that there is great profit potential on the horizon in backing the Canadiens. The huge psychological edge they own here is the perfect place to start. We can almost guarantee a relentless, playoff like effort from the Habs tonight.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE +5.5 over Miami
We have hit three of our last four free winners and today we go against the Miami Heat, who are in a very difficult scheduling spot and are hampered by a key injury. The Heat just got back from a grueling six-game road trip, now play at home for one night and then head back out on the road for five more games. Not an ideal spot, to say the least, especially when you consider they are 7-29 ATS when returning from a road trip of seven days or more and that the team has really struggled without Goran Dragic, who is out with a calf strain. The Bucks have covered four straight and five of their last six and get the money again here tonight.
Dave Cokin
Kent St. vs. Ball St.
Play: Kent St +1.5
Good MAC battle between the experienced Golden Flashes and a very surprising Ball State entry. The Cardinals will have to prove to me they belong in the upper reaches of the conference, though. They're 12-5 and clearly improved a bunch, but that record has still been amassed at one of the weakest strength of schedules in the land. Kent State has just as strong a set of numbers here, and the Flashes have accomplished theirs against a much more representative schedule. It's also a good match up as the visitors are a team that works for inside looks and Ball State has still had some trouble defending that aspect. Kent State as the underdog its a take for me.