Bruce Marshall
Georgia State -11
After a puzzling no-show effort on Saturday when it was creamed in Atlanta by UL-Lafayette, expect a big bounce-back from Ron Hunter's normally reliable Panthers, who had won four straight and eight of nine before that puzzler vs. the Ragin' Cajuns. Doubt Southern capable of doing the same, especially since the Eagles have no one like ULL's beastly 6-11 Shawn Long, who single-handedly obliterated State with 23 points and 18 rebounds on Saturday. GaSo has yet to demonstrate the consistency needed to suggest it can repeat its impressive weekend win over UL-Monroe, as the Eagles (only 6-10 SU) are minus three career 1000-point scorers who graduated last spring and are now relying on 5-11 frosh G Tookie Brown (17 ppg) as a go-to threat. Let's hope we don't see a repeat of the 38-36 root canal between these sides in last March's Sun Belt Tourney finale! Play Georgia State
Dr. Bob
Dayton (-2½) over ST. BONAVENTURE
St. Bonaventure is having a solid season at 12-4 but the Bonnies’ upset loss at Duquesne sets them up in a 21-78 ATS negative momentum situation and my ratings favor Dayton by 4 points in this game. I’ll take Dayton in a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 2-Stars at -2.
Opinion – Milwaukee (+4 ½) over MIAMI
Miami is struggling offensively without PG Goran Dragic and it’s worse without veteran backup Beno Udrih, who will miss his 2nd consecutive game. That leads to more playing time for Josh Richardson, who is dreadful and played 20 minutes in Miami’s 74-99 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday. Miami has been outscored by 82 points in Richardson’s 161 minutes on the court this season. I realize some of that has been in garbage time with other reserves but Richardson is -55 points in just 104.6 minutes when playing with Chris Bosh (and other starters) on the floor. The Bucks are starting to play better (4-0 ATS their last 4 and 8-3 ATS their last 11) and my ratings with point guards Dragic and Udrih both out from Miami favor the Heat by just 1 point. The only thing keeping me from making Milwaukee a Best Bet based on line value is that Miami is better off a loss (11-5-1 ATS this season) than they are off a win (8-15 ATS) and the Bucks are worse off a win (7-10 ATS) than they are off a loss (16-9 ATS). I like the line value favoring Milwaukee more than the trends favoring Miami so I’ll lean with the Bucks at +4 points or more.
Opinion - PITTSBURGH (-8½) over NC State
Pittsburgh applies to a solid 117-52-2 ATS home favorite situation today and my ratings favor the Panthers by 9½ points in this game. The combination of the angle and the line value isn’t quite strong enough to make this a Best Bet but I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -9 or less.