Pete Angelo
Northern Iowa at Wichita State
The 20th-ranked Panthers are on a roll and have arrived in Wichita, Kansas with their 7-foot monster, Jordan Eglseder.
And yet they're catching points from the Shockers.
Northern Iowa has won 15 straight ball games and leads the Missouri Valley Conference by two games over Wichita State, so increasing the lead is crucial tonight. A road win isn't impossible, as the Panthers already own wins at three of the toughest places in the conference: Creighton, Southern Illinois and Illinois State.
The Shockers won't be able to contend against that physical defense and patient offense the Panthers bring with them. They allow teams to score an average of 54.9 points and have held four Valley opponents to under 50 points.
Look for this pup to bark loudly tonight.
3♦ NORTHERN IOWA
John Ryan
Tennessee at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama
3* graded play on Alabama as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our handicapping model/simulator shows a high probability that Alabama can win this game. Tennessee has won 4 of their past 5 ATS lined games and have ripped off 6 straight wins. One of those was our SHOCKER winner as they defeated Kansas with a depleted squad due to guns and drug related charges. The emotional and physical output over this span has made Tennessee a tired and vulnerable team. In their last game,which was home against Mississippi they barely won and shot just 35%. Tennessee is a very good team and they shoot the ball well and play solid team defense. However, Alabama has done very well against similar teams sporting a 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a Super Tuesday system that has produced a record of 43-17 against the money line for 71% winners and has made 26.4 units since 2004. Play on home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that are off a road loss by 10 points or more with the game taking place on Tuesday nights. We believe Tennessee will look very tired throughout the second half and this is where Alabama can gain control and win the game. Take the Tide.
Wunderdog
San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: San Jose Sharks
The Sharks were once a team that was great at home, but struggled on the road. This season however, they are equally tough on the road at 16-6-2, eclipsing the Kings’ home mark of just 13-8-2. The Sharks are in an offensive frenzy right now as they have tallied 13 in their last two. On the defensive end, they have allowed just 7 in the last five games. It will be a tough chore for the Kings’ up-and-down offense that has scored 2 or less in half of their last 14 games to hang close in this one. The Sharks are the NHL's best playing in the second of consecutive nights where they are 45-14 in their last 59. The Kings are failing to get it done vs. road teams with a .600+ winning percentage, where they are just 8-21. I'll go with San Jose here.
Freddy Wills
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cavs -10
Cavs are coming off a long road trip and are on 2 days rest. The Cavs are actually very good at playing under this situation as of late. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a road trip of 7 or more days. They also come into this situation with revenge on their mind as they lost by 10 to the Raptors in the 2nd game of the season up in Toronto. This Cavs team has since gelled together and in this situation I will back the Cavs to come up with a big big win. Actually the last time they came off a long road trip they had a home court game with revenge against the Rockets who they previously lost by 10 on the road. The Cavs then took care of the Rockets 108-83 at home with the revenge as similar favorites -8.5 in that game. Toronto on 1 less day of rest and they play their worst defense in this situation and they are already playing the worst defense in the league. I really smell a double digit loss coming here tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Tennessee at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama
Tennessee (14-2) concluded a four-game home stand with a 71-69 overtime win over Mississippi on Saturday. But the Volunteers are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine following at least three straight home games. Four Tennessee players were suspended from the team over a week ago after an incident that results in drug and weapon charges. Forward Tyler Smith was the Vols second leading scorer -- and he has been dismissed from the team. Backup center Brian Williams also remains suspended. Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum are now practicing with the team again but they will probably not play in Tuesday's game. Overall, Tennessee has to replace 32.5 points of scoring from these four players. And the Volunteers have only six scholarship players who will play tonight. This is a tough situation for a Tennessee team that is just playing their third game on their opponent's home court. Tennessee has failed to cover in their last four road games as a favorite of under seven points. Alabama (11-6) has lost two games in a row after losing 71-59 at Arkansas. But the Crimson Tide is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a loss. And at home, Alabama sports a 7-3 record with a +10.9 net point differential. Alabama's defense at home is very good as they hold their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field. This defensive effort should stymie a Volunteers team that lacks experience playing on the road this season. Take the points with Alabama.
TEDDY COVERS
Clemson @ Georgia Tech
PICK: Georgia Tech -1.5
We’ve seen this story from Clemson before. Last year, the Tigers started out the year with a 16-0 record. They were a sub .500 squad the rest of the way. In 2008, Clemson started 12-1. They closed out the back half of the season going 12-9. In ’07, it was a 17-0 start, followed by an 8-11 finish. Half of those eight wins came in the NIT tournament. In ’06, the Tigers won their first eleven games, then proceeded to lose ten of their next 13. Oliver Purnell’s track record is very clear – great starts, not so great finishes. Their 15-3 start here in 2010 must be taken with a grain of salt.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is the real deal. They are 8-1 at home this year, including an outright upset as seven point home underdogs against Duke last week. Their only home loss came in overtime against Florida State; a game in which point guard Iman Shumpert was sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. Shumpert is coming off a 30 point, six assist, four rebound, three steal game against North Carolina, leading the Yellow Jackets to an upset win over the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. This is one player whose ability we do not want to underestimate, particularly in an uptempo game like this one.
Clemson’s starting point guard, Demontez Stitt, has started every game this year. He’s the team’s leading assist man and their second leading scorer. Stitt is doubtful to play this evening with a foot injury, and even if he suits up, he’ll be at less than 100%. That leaves untested sophomore Andre Young forced to match up at the point against Shumpert. And let’s not forget that this Georgia Tech defense forces more than 16 turnovers per game, while holding opposing teams to 37% shooting, a difficult matchup for the Tigers even if Stitt was healthy. The price here is cheap for the better team in the better spot.
2* Take Georgia Tech
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oklahoma Sooners +7.5
Texas A&M will be ready to go tonight off back-to-back losses but odds makers are giving the Aggies too much respect with this line against an Oklahoma team playing well off back-to-back wins. This has been a very one-sided affair with Oklahoma taking 20 of the last 24 meetings dating back to 1997. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Texas A&M and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Look for the Sooners to keep this one within the number.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Clemson/Georgia Tech UNDER 142
Expect to see a tough defensive battle tonight between a pair of very good defensive basketball teams. Clemson is only allowing 62.6 ppg this season and Tech is only giving up 63.5 ppg. It is also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams forcing 18 or more turnovers/game and 25-15 UNDER vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games under coach Hewitt. The public is all over the Over in this one so I feel very comfortable in backing the Under in this situation.
King Creole
George Mason +3.5 vs Hofstra
The Patriots already took this season's earlier meeting against the Pride back on January 4th. Looks a clean SWEEP is in order on Tuesday night. In the last two seasons, George Mason has won ALL 4 games in outright fashion.
Patriots are playing their best basketball of the season, and it's nice to grab a couple of buckets worth of points with such a hot team. Mason is 3-0 SU in their last 3... 5-1 in their last 6... and 7-2 in their last 9. Their most recent game was on the road against James Madison (as dogs of +2 points). They won that won by DOUBLE-DIGITS (final score: 82-71). Meanwhile, the Pride of Hofstra is already 2-6 ATS in all home games this season... and that includes a PERFECT 0-5 ATS when the game line is 10 or less points. Current streaks for Hofstra include 0-3 in their last 3 games... 1-5 in their last 6... and 2-7 in their last 9 (the EXACT opposite of the Patriots!).
29-13 ATS this season: All Conference road dogs of < 9 points playing off a SU win (G MASON) vs any opponent off a SU loss (Hofstra). These dogs are 12-3 ATS of playing off a DIG win (G MASON)... and 4-0 ATS when playing 'into' REVENGE.
0-3 ATS so far this season: All Conference home teams playing off 3 or more losses in a row (Hofstra)... versus any opponent playing off 3 or more WINS in a row (G MASON).
5-1 ATS so far this season: All Conference road teams playing off a SU Conference road DOG wing of 10 or more points (G MASON).
We wrap things up with a SPECIFIC query for the CAA Conference (Colonial Athletic Association)...1-8-1 ATS since 2002: All CAA home favorites of < 8 points (Hofstra) playing with 'SSR1' (same-season Revenge)... versus any conference opponent playing off a DD SU win (G MASON). And if that DD win was as an Underdog, these overpriced home favorites have gone a PERFECT 0-6-1 ATS.
Drew Gordon
Indiana +6' at MIAMI
40-25-3 roll L68 Free Plays (8-2 L10), incl. the Grizz over the Suns Monday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pacers/Heat match up.
The public seems to love the Heat in this spot, but I couldn't disagree more! So what if the Heat routed the Pacers twice already this season?! If anything, you can expect Indiana to bring it's "A" game in an attempt to avoid a third straight embarassing loss in this series. Sorry Heat-backers, but the motivational edge lies with Indiana tonight.
Also, you have to like the fact the Pacers are finally getting healthy with both Granger and Murphy returning to the lineup. Both players have had a couple games to shake the rust off, so look for this Pacers team to be firing on all cylinders tonight. Granger is a beast, while Murphy contributes on offense, but also allows the Pacers to go big on defense with him at PF and 7'2 Hibbert at center. This is a match up problem for a Heat team with size issues upfront (and don't talk to me about a 1-legged Jermaine O'neall).
Finally, one has to wonder about the Heat's focus in this contest, coming off a long trip, with this home game sandwiched in between another couple roadies. This is simply not a good situation to be laying this many with a Miami team thats been VERY inconsistent this season. Note, the dog in this series is an outstanding 20-6-2 ATS L28 meetings! In the end, the Pacers have a little score to settle here, and while they may not win SU, I say they reward their backers with the cash!
Take Indiana plus the points over Miami in this NBA match up.
2♦ INDIANA
Scott Delaney
Boston College at Miami, Florida
I can honestly say I am going against Boston College, instead of siding with Miami, Florida tonight in this rematch clash in the ACC.
Since knocking off the Hurricanes, B.C. has lost three straight - all by double digits. Now they face a hungry team looking for revenge.
That won't bode well for an Eagles team that looked lethargic at best against Maryland, which shellacked B.C., 73-57.
Coach Al Skinner was visibly upset with his team, and after watching his team get pummeled said: "There’s nothing at all that I’m pleased about. Our attitude on the floor is not what it needs to be, particularly on the defensive end. Until that improves, we’re going to remain where we are."
During the Eagles' three-game losing streak they're getting beat by an average margin of 17.3 points per game.
A quick glance at the betting numbers reveal the Eagles on a 1-7 spread skid, while the favorite in this series is on a 10-4 ATS streak.
Considering the fact Boston College's lone win in about three weeks was a rout of NJIT - ahem, the New Jersey Institue of Technology - in its final non-conference game of the season, I have to side with the Hurricanes in this one.
3♦ MIAMI, FLORIDA
Tony Weston
Bad call with Western Kentucky yesterday as it doesn’t even show up when we needed.
That’s fine because I’m cashing tonight as I’m taking Northern Iowa on the road at Wichita State.
Coming into this game Northern Iowa has played strong basketball this season, going 16-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in its lined games.
Tonight, installed as about a 3-point underdog at Wichita State, the Panthers will cash in.
In its last 11 games Northern Iowa has gone 10-1 ATS and has covered in 6 of its 7 road games this season.
The Panthers are riding a 5-game ATS road winning streak and will make it 6 straight road covers tonight.
3♦ NORTHERN IOWA
SPORTS WAGERS
Indiana +6/+2.22 over MIAMI
I’m going to split this up and play one unit each on the money-line and point-spread. The problem with the Heat is that you just never know which team you’re going to get. You’re either going to get the team that is capable of competing with anyone or the team that doesn’t give a damn if they win, lose or draw. What should be concerning to Heat backers is that they’re coming home from a tough six-game trip that began on Jan 8 and ended on the 16th. This line suggests they won’t be too sharp tonight because if the books thought otherwise they’d be about a 7 or 7½-point favorite. After all, the Pacers instill fear in nobody and own a 4-16 road record. Having said that, the Pacers are quietly getting a whole lot more dangerous. Danny Granger is a marquee player and suddenly Roy Hibbert is making a huge impact. Throw in a healthy Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy and a very decent bench and the Pacers are a team that could be way undervalued now because of its slow start. This is a vulnerable situation for the Heat, as they return home and they take way too many nights off to trust them in this spot. Play: Indiana +6 (Risking 1.03 units to win 1) Play: Indiana +2.22 (Risking 1 unit).
Clemson/GEORGIA TECH under 143
It may seem off to recommend a wager on the under when Clemson and Georgia Tech both shoot over 50% from the field but a closer look at the statistics reveals why the under is the play. For starters, both these teams are going to make some noise in the tournament and the main reason why is because of their excellent defense. Clemson and Georgia Tech both rank in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, a statistic I trust tremendously when researching defenses. Defensive efficiency accounts for pace and it’s a big reason why the points per game allowed never gets mentioned in this space, and for both these teams to rank in the top 20 shows just how dominant their defense’s are. Furthermore, neither Clemson nor Georgia Tech shoot over 35% from three and furthermore struggle mightily at the line, checking in at 65% and 68% respectively. Expect a grind it out game with hard fouls and lots of turnovers, and while that may allow for some early bonus time you can rest assured points are going to be hard to come by. Both these schools take tremendous pride in their defensive prowess and there is no reason to expect any different tonight. Play: Clemson/Georgia Tech under 143 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
SEAN MURPHY
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Over 5.5
There's a good chance we'll see a plenty of pucks in the net in Philadelphia tonight as the Flyers host the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Columbus has certainly had a disappointing season so far, posting a 19-32 record after reaching the playoffs for the first time last Spring. However, the Blue Jackets have been playing a little better lately, particularly at the offensive end of the rink. They've won four of their last seven games, and have scored nine goals in their last two contests.
The over has been money in the bank in Blue Jackets' road games this season, cashing at a 17-10 clip. Also note that the over is an incredible 15-5 in their last 20 games played on no rest, as is the case here tonight.
The Flyers return home following a disappointing road trip that saw them lose in Toronto and Washington, outscored by a combined 9-3 margin. They didn't perform particularly well at either end of the rink on that trip, but keep in mind, they've scored 16 goals in their last three home games. Prior to that trip they had scored 27 times in their last five games.
Philadelphia should be able to get its offense untracked again tonight as the Blue Jackets are allowing 3.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Flyers are averaging over three goals per game themselves here at home.
The Blue Jackets are in good position to hold up their end of the bargain against a Flyers defense that has allowed nine goals over its last two games and gives up just under three goals per game overall this season.
The over is 8-4 in the Flyers last 12 games overall and a near perfect 5-0-1 in their last six games as a home favorite priced north of -200.
When these two met last season we saw just three total goals, but that game was played in Columbus, and both sides were much stronger between the pipes.
For whatever reason, Blue Jackets goaltender Steve Mason is stuck in a sophomore slump, while I can't decide who is the worst of the Flyers three options in the net; Emery, Boucher, and Leighton have all struggled. Take the over.
Info Plays
3* on Miami Heat -6
Reasons why Miami covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game). This is a 28-5 ATS System hitting 84.8% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Indiana is just 4-16 on the road this season, losing by 9.0 PPG. The home team has covered 6 of the last 7 in this head-to-head series. Bet Miami at home.