Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 24

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

It's apparent the world is willing to bet the ranch on the Heat off their embarrassing home loss to the Bucks on Sunday but before you do we suggest you have a backup ranch. For openers, Cleveland checks in at 6-1 ATS with rest in its last seven games against an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Cleveland is also 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in this series when Miami is playing off a SU favorite loss. Meanwhile, the Heat is 3-11 ATS as home favorite in games off a SU favorite loss since the arrival of the Three Amigos, including 1-8 ATS when laying 9 or more points. Do you want any of that? We don't. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Rob Vinciletti

Akron vs. Ball State
Play: Akron +1.5

The Zips are 7-0 in the 2nd half the last 2+ seasons vs teams who allow 65 points or less and 13-6 after allowing 80 or more points. They have had a solid month thus far winning 5 of 6 in January. Even better is their record vs teams who are ranked 151 or higher in the RPI as they are 6-0 vs these teams.Ball St is is ranked 216th in the RPI and has played a soft schedule 343 rd toughest in the nation. Akron has played the 60th toughest schedule. Ball St has dropped 3 of 4 to the spread as a home favorite of 3 or less and are 0-3 ats in conference play off a win. When they take on winning teams they are no great shakes at 9-18 straight up. The records may look similar but Akron is the better team.

Bryan Power

New York @ Charlotte
PICK: New York -4.5

I can't possibly imagine the Knicks losing again, can you? Particularly not to the hideous 3-14 Bobcats, who were one of the last teams New York actually beat; 91-87 back in Madison Square Garden on January 9th. That was a revenge spot for the Knickerbockers as they fell outright (as 11.5-pt chalk) to Charlotte 118-110 just five days prior. Charlotte will have the Knicks full attention tonight considering this stunning six-game losing skid (SU/ATS) that is threatening to blow up this team. The Bobcats simply lack the firepower necessary to compete here. They are scoring just over 90 PPG while allowing over 100 per game. Now its Charlotte w/ revenge & they're just 3-8 ATS in that spot.

Matt Fargo

Michigan @ Purdue
PICK: Purdue -5

We played against Purdue on Saturday and that resulted in an easy win as the Boilermakers were throttled at Michigan St. The situation was a bad one to begin with but Purdue got caught in bad weather as did not show up in East Lansing until two hours before tipoff so it was clear that it was not ready to play. Now the Boilermakers are back home and riding just a one-game streak as their 26-game home winning streak was snapped it its previous home game against Wisconsin.

Michigan played a non-conference game on Saturday against Arkansas and after falling behind by 20 points early, the Wolverines fought back but lost by a bucket. That dropped them to 0-4 on the road and the host is now a perfect 16-0 this season in Michigan games when the contest is played on a true home court. You have to give credit to Michigan for coming back against the Razorbacks but after missing the game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer, the psyche of this teams could be in question.

One player who should be seething is Purdue forward Robbie Hummel as he failed to make a shot for the first time in his career in that game against the Spartans. We went 0-11 from the floor and his only points came when he went 2-2 from the free throw line. While he will be ready for a bounce back game, the Boilermakers have been extremely tough following poorly played games as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss by 20 or more points.

Michigan is playing with some revenge as it was hammered at home by the Boilermakers last season 80-57 but road revenge is very tough to accomplish in this league. Playing in West Lafayette is not the best scenario either as Michigan has been outscored by an average of 15.4 ppg in losing six straight at Purdue’s Mackey Arena with the last victory coming in 2003. We have the scenario of playing an unranked favorite against a ranked road underdog and this situation has been very strong throughout the years.

Jim Feist

Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns
Pick: Phoenix Suns

Your free play for Tuesday comes in the NBA as the Toronto Raptors head all the way out to the Southwest to battle the Suns. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NBA Pacific division and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Phoenix is home after a 6-game trip that saw two big upset wins, at Boston and at New York. The team that Phoenix just upset, Boston, played Toronto that same week and blasted the Raptors, 96-73. The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Phoenix and 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Your free play for Tuesday, Play the Phoenix Suns.

Free NHL Play for 1/24: Pittsburgh Penguins (+110, BetOnline) over the St. Louis Blues. Pittsburgh is showing excellent value here as a small road dog. They are catching St. Louis on the back end of back-to-back nights, and in their third game in four nights. The Penguins have been hot, winners of six straight. In their current winning streak, they have outscored their opponents 25-13. Statistically, the Penguins are sound as an underdog this season as well. Pittsburgh averages 2.62 goals/game while allowing just 2.36 goals/game when playing in the role of the underdog. St. Louis had won four straight before falling to the Redwings last night. But the Blues have been struggling offensively, averaging just 1.8 goals/game in their last five outings. The Penguins have lost their last two against the Blues, both times in overtime. We suspect that the Penguins will grab a sizeable lead early in tonights game, and will be placing 20% of our play on the reverse puck-line. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest, 12-5 in their last 17 games as a road underdog, and 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. St. Louis is just 2-6 in their last 8 when playing in their third game in four days, and only 2-5 in their last seven games vs winning teams. We'll play the road dog, Pittsburgh Penguins +110. Free Picks now 148-80-1. Sign up today to receive all of our free plays via email. Thank you, and good luck.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Texas -7

Motivated by 3 straight losses and a defeat at Iowa State on Jan. 4, expect Texas to bounce back strong at home, where it is 11-1 on the season. Iowa State hasn't had much luck at Texas, where it has dropped 6 of its last 7 with the 6 losses coming by 26, 16, 20, 9, 8 and 23 points. It is also worth noting that the Cyclones are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Texas is an impressive 25-12 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning these games by an average score of 75.4 to 63.4. We'll side with Texas in this highly motivated spot.

Jack Jones

Cavaliers/Heat OVER 202.5

I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight with the total set in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat game. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league in terms of points given up. Miami likes to run at a fast pace, and they'll control the tempo at home.

The Heat are scoring 105.4 points/game on the season and allowing 97.5 points/game. They have been lighting up the scoreboard at home, scoring 108.4 points/game in Miami. Cleveland gives up 99.0 points/game this season, so they'll have their hands full in trying to slow down Lebron and company.

The OVER is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 games overall. They have played little to no defense in their last three games. The Cavs gave up 105 to Golden State, 114 to Chicago and 121 to Atlanta. That's an average of 113.3 points/game during this span. That doesn't bode well for the Cavaliers considering they'll be facing the league's highest-scoring team.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER in their last 10 games as a home favorite over 12.5 points or more. I'm seeing an average combined score of 210.9 points/game in this spot. The Heat are 12-3 to the OVER in their last 15 home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The OVER is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

Jack Jones

Cavaliers/Heat OVER 202.5

I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight with the total set in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat game. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league in terms of points given up. Miami likes to run at a fast pace, and they'll control the tempo at home.

The Heat are scoring 105.4 points/game on the season and allowing 97.5 points/game. They have been lighting up the scoreboard at home, scoring 108.4 points/game in Miami. Cleveland gives up 99.0 points/game this season, so they'll have their hands full in trying to slow down Lebron and company.

The OVER is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 games overall. They have played little to no defense in their last three games. The Cavs gave up 105 to Golden State, 114 to Chicago and 121 to Atlanta. That's an average of 113.3 points/game during this span. That doesn't bode well for the Cavaliers considering they'll be facing the league's highest-scoring team.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER in their last 10 games as a home favorite over 12.5 points or more. I'm seeing an average combined score of 210.9 points/game in this spot. The Heat are 12-3 to the OVER in their last 15 home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The OVER is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

Steve Janus

Georgia +12.5

My money is on the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the 12.5-point spread against the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. What a lot of people don't realize is the hype that surrounds Kentucky basketball has allowed oddsmakers to make a killing. More times than not the public is all over the Wildcats, but they are just 5-14 ATS this season, covering just once in their last eight games. I'm currently showing around 60% of the public betting on Kentucky in this game, yet the line is moving in the favor of Georgia.

I will admit Georgia doesn't look like a great play if you just look at their recent performances. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, all of which were games inside the SEC.

What a lot of people overlook is the magnitude of this game for Georgia, compared to what it means for Kentucky. Georgia is just 10-9 overall, which means they aren't making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the conference tournament. With this game being played on ESPN, I expect the Bulldogs to treat this game like it was the National Championship. I also expect a sell out crowd that will relish at the opportunity to see their team take down the No. 1 team in the country.

Georgia lost 63-66 at home to Ole Miss on Saturday as a 2-point favorite. That was actually a good thing for Georgia against the spread tonight. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss!

Ben Burns

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders
PICK: New York Islanders

Yesterday's free play (Jets/Hurricanes 'under') resulted in a relatively painless winner. I also cashed a "premium" play on the Canes in that one, part of a 3-0 NHL sweep and 5-1-1 Monday card, 6-1-1 with the free play.

Another of yesterday's winners was the Leafs. Hosting the Islanders, they won by a score of 3-0. Today, however, it's the revenge-minded Isles with home ice advantage.

Having gone 0-2 against the Leafs this season and having just been beaten by them last night, the Isles should be hungry for some payback here.

Although I played against them yesterday, the Isles have been playing well recently. They'd previously won three straight, including victories over the likes of Philadelphia and Washington. They only allowed two combined goals in those three games, too.

On the other hand, prior to last night's win, the Leafs had dropped four of five. They've only played four road games since Christmas and they lost all four of them. They're 2-7 on the road since the start of December.

The last time that the Isles were in a back-to-back spot, they won by a score of 3-0. The Leafs have only played back-to-back games once in 2012 and they lost the second leg of those games by a score of 3-0. Consider New York.

Sean Murphy

Philadelphia @ Florida
PICK: Florida +½

We successfully faded the Flyers on Sunday against the Bruins, and we'll go right back to the well as they travel to Florida to face the Panthers on Tuesday.

The only difference is, this time, we'll elect to back Florida plus the half-goal in regulation time.

First, it's worth noting that the Panthers have gone to overtime in three of their last four games, and nine times in their last 18 contests. Factoring in the +0.5 regulation time line, they're 12-7 over that stretch.

Philadelphia is dragging its heels a little heading into the All-Star break. This is a team that has been ravaged by injuries to key players throughout the season, and nothing has changed in the last week, as they've lost Danny Briere, Jaromir Jagr, and Zac Rinaldo.

Still, the Flyers managed to score five goals in Sunday's wild 6-5 shootout loss to the Bruins. I expect them to fall back offensively tonight against a Panthers squad that gives up just 2.45 goals per game at home.

This is a key game for Florida, as it aims to head into the All-Star break on a two-game winning streak, and create some much-needed breathing room atop the Southeast Division standings (yes, the Panthers currently lead the division with 54 points).

Look for the home side to be the hungrier one in this contest. The Flyers have the edge in talent, although it's minimized with Briere and Jagr out of the lineup. The price is right to back the Panthers in regulation time in this spot. Take Florida +½ goals (regulation time) -162

Stan Lisowski

Tennessee

Vanderbilt has been very unreliable this season, winning games they weren't supposed to and losing those that were supposed to win. Vols are always a live dog with at 68% spread successes their last 70 or so in that role.

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +146 over NEW JERSEY

The Sabres have lost 12 straight on the road and with six full days off for the All-Star break after this game, expect the Sabres to dig down deep here. Buffalo is playing poorly but they're not a lousy team. Many expected them to be Stanley Cup contenders this year but a slew of injuries and an uncharacteristic work ethic has crippled them. On the bright side, they’ll be facing Marty Brodeur here. The Devils rarely get outplayed but they've lost more games this year because of poor goaltending than any team in the league. That makes them a huge risk laying big juice. In its past two games against Boston and Philly, New Jersey was outscored 8-2 and Brodeur allowed four goals on 20 shots and three goals on 24 shots respectively. Against Calgary on Jan 10, Brodeur allowed two goals on two shots, was yanked and the Flames ended up scoring six goals on 14 shots. These are not aberrations. This has been ongoing for a year and half now. Brodeur is an “old” 40-years of age. He's slow and he's like an old boxer that doesn't want to give up. Minus goaltending, the Devils are as good as any team in the league. With Brodeur in net and laying close to -160, the Devils are a team to fade Play: Buffalo +146 (Risking 2 units).

PHOENIX -½ +123 over Ottawa

This is all about playing against the Senators in an almost impossible spot. Ottawa has played an NBA-like schedule over the past two weeks. This will be the Sens eighth road game since Jan 10 and their ninth game overall in that two-week span. They played last night in Los Angeles and Saturday in Anaheim. In summarizing, Ottawa will play its ninth game in 14 days, third in four days and tail end of back-to-backs with every game coming on the road with the exception of one. They've had a terrific first half and after a gruelling stretch of games, no team is looking forward to the break more than these guys. Ottawa is hosting the All-Star game and four of the six starters (Spezza, Alfredsson, Karlsson and Michalek) are Senators. Although not confirmed, expect backup Alex Auld in net for this one and if not, it'll be the worn out Craig Anderson. The hard-working and rested Coyotes are more than capable of beating this drained visitor. Play: Phoenix -½ +123 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ +112 over Nashville

The Predators will go into the break feeling pretty good about themselves. They'll go into the break this year on a three-game winning streak, with eight wins in their past nine. However, they also played last night and this will be their fifth game in seven nights. A game Saturday was against these same Blackhawks and the Preds beat them 5-2. That was the last time Chicago played. On two full days rest this year, Chicago is 9-4. On two days rest following a loss, they're 4-1 and that loss to this same foe is fresh on their minds. On zero days rest, the Preds are 2-4. On zero days rest following a win they're 1-3. Sure, Jonathan Toews and Patrck Sharp are injured but the Blackhawks are deep enough to overcome it and they're simply the superior team at home in a better situation. Play: Chicago -½ +112 (Risking 2 units).

Boston -½ +100 over WASHINGTON

How much of an underlay is this on Boston? If this were the Bruins in Columbus and Rick Nash was suspended, the Bruins would be a 2-1 or better favorite and -½ -130 on the puck line. Well, the Caps minus Alex Ovechkin are no better than the Jackets minus Nash. The Caps are still without Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green. Washington has dropped three of four with only win over that span coming against the Canadiens in a game they were outshout 31-16. We're sticking to our guns in suggesting that the Capitals are among the bottom feeders in the league and the fact that we can take the Bruins to win this one in regulation without having to lay anything has to be considered one of the top wagers of the season. Washington has had difficulties competing on the same level with most teams this season with A.O. Without him and the two aforementioned injured players, they can't compete with many, let alone the champs. Play: Boston -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).