Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 25,2011

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers meet the Mavericks at the AAA in Dallas Tuesday evening with revenge on their minds from a 16-point home loss suffered earlier this season. That's proved profitable for the Clips as they are 10-5-1 ATS with same season revenge in this series, including 5-1-1 ATS in Dallas. With rookie sensation Blake Griifin and company 12-4 ATS in games against opponents off a win this season, and the Mavs riding a 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS streak of late, we'll grab the points in this payback tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Clippers.

Sam Martin

LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Play on: Dallas

We'll back the Mavericks here tonight at home in what is really more of a play "against" the LA Clippers. LA is an awful 3-13 away from home this season, and in case you missed our write up when we faded them in their loss at Golden State, we don't feel the Clippers can keep up on the road against fast-paced teams. LA plays zero defense in these road tilts, allowing better than 106 ppg, and Dallas should have no problem covering this number here.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Purdue at Ohio State
Play on: Ohio State

We'll call for the Buckeyes unbeaten season to not only continue, but continue in comfortable fashion, noting they have cashed in 18 of the previous 23 meetings with Purdue, not to mention are 12-1 ATS off BB covers as a favorite. Purdue is just 3-14 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. This is a revenge spot for OSU, who did lose last time hosting the Boilers here in Columbus. Lay the points.

Frank Jordan

Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Denver Nuggets -4.5

Denver has the worst road record among teams with a winning overall record at 5-13 on the road. The Carmelo trade talks have nothing to do with it as they are 20-5 at home. Even with all that though they are just 2.5 games out of first place and may end up just keeping Carmelo and making a stretch run. Washington is 13-30 on the year and playing some competitive basketball with the young guys. They play great at home with all 13 wins coming at home. Look for Washington to put up a hell of a fight at home, but Denver will win for the 6th time on the road this year with a win in DC. Play Denver

Chip Chirimbes

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -17½

It is very rare for me to look to a double digit favorite in NBA action but the difference in talent and motivation level here calls for a blowout win for the Celtics. One thing that Boston (33-10, #20-21-2) does is play defense and the biggest problem for Cleveland (8-36, #15-28-1) is scoring points so this game plays right into the Celtics hands as the Cavaliers who have won only 3 of 25 road games won't even be competitive here.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +18

Reason: The Cavaliers had a brutal road trip made worse by the fact that they played a string of teams that like to run uptempo. The Cavs shifted gears the last game and played a slow, defensive-oriented team in the Bulls and covered as a big dog. Now they face a similar defensive team, Boston, a veteran club battling a lot of injuries. The Celtics are better defensively with Kevin Garnett back, but are still thin up front and on the bench because of injuries. Boston is 5-11-1 ATS the last 17 games. Play the Cavaliers.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Washington over Denver

Don't laugh! The Nuggets (5-13 SUR) have trouble on the road, especially in the eastern part of the country. The arising Wizards have pulled some recent upsets at home (13-9 SUH) and now look to out the traveling Nuggets. Denver is 4-13-2 ATS on the road versus a winning home unit. With the after affects of the Anthony no-trade we look for a real dead outing for Denver this evening.

Brent Brooks

Colorado +8

Talk about a tough game for Kansas. One of the reasons Colorado lost to a terrible Sooners team is that they were looking to this game back home against the benchmark team of the Big 12.

Colorado is the type of team that gives Kansas trouble. Big guards, high energy, lateral quickness, and streak shooting. Giving 8 points to the home team here is just too much. It plays on the Kansas money that will no doubt funnel in regardless of the line. We're grabbing the home dog and expecting a thriller.

Marquette -3.5

I'm a big believer in Marquette this year. I was willing to back them only catching three at a very hostile location against Notre Dame and for twenty minutes that looked like a great call. Notre Dame bowed their back and played a very spirited second half but the Golden Eagles showed no fear even in defeat.

At home, they've been fantastic and I believe that continues against UConn tonight.

Jae Crowder was the National Junior College Player of the Year a season ago and he has filled the void left by Lazar Hayward. DJO is absolutely fearless and has a pure lefty jump shot. Dwight Buycks is probably the most underrated point guard in the Big East. So much talent with those three that you forget about Jimmy Butler until he is there with a crucial bucket to break a run or ice the game. Fulce and Otule bang around down low and hold their own. This is a good team yet they don't have the fanfare as other Big East contenders because its such a deep list of talented teams. If Marquette was in any other conference, how would they stack up - in the B12? the B10? Upper tier of the Big 12 for sure and top half of the Big 10.

UConn is going to see action in this one because of Kemba and that's fine. He'll have to drop 35 or more to win this game and that's contingent on getting some help on the road. After their loss at Pitt, they beat Texas in a thriller which certainly stands out as a nice win. Since then, they have yet to be tested and I think they slip up in this one.

Tom Freese

LA Clippers at Dallas
Play: Dallas

The Clippers are 17-26 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 16-36 ATS their last 52 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Clippers are 15-36 their last 51 games vs. NBA Southwest teams. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS their last 6 Tuesday games. Dallas is 28-15 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. Dallas is 13-6 ATS their last 19 games off a straight up win. The favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings.

Craig Trapp

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -3

Georgia Tech has one decent win all year against the overrated UNC team. Other than that Coach Hewitt's team has underachieved all year. On the other hand VT has been great winning 9 of last 10 straight up and 6-1 ATS over that time period. Delaney is an elite guard for VT and his ability to break down the defense has made this team really special. VT wins this by double digits.

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +6½

Tonight we get the LA Clippers (17-26 SU, 23-19-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (28-15 SU, 20-21-2 ATS) from American Airlines Arena in Big D. Blake Griffin and the Clippers will be looking to post their fifth win in the last six games when they visit Dallas on Tuesday. In their last action, Los Angeles was a 113-109 winner at home against the Warriors. The Mavericks were an 87-86 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Nets. LAC are really making moves. They've won 12 of 17. Griffin is now a dominant force on the inside, lifting his scoring and rebounding averages each month this season, and Baron Davis is rejuvinated. As for Dallas they've dropped 10 of 14 games while struggling mainly at the offensive end. Is Peja Stojakovic really the answer for losing Caron Butler? The Mavericks have taken seven in a row in the series and 13 of 14. But this line is moving as the public $ is coming in on Dallas. Clippers leading scorer Eric Gordon, averaging 20.3 points in three career games in Dallas, is questionable for this matchup after a bruised lower back but I'm hearing he'll give it a go. I still like the number we're getting with or without Gordon. The Mavs are really struggling shooting the ball. LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home. Dallas are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. I'm not sure if LAC can win straight up but they'll keep the number close.

David Chan

Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

I bet value where I see it and expect the defending Champs to rout the Wild in their own barn.

Both teams are coming off losses after extended periods of winning.

Chicago had its streak snapped in a 4-1 loss to the Flyers on Sunday in a rematch of the Stanley Cup Finals; the Wild had their three game streak snapped with a 4-3 loss to the Sharks on Saturday.

Minnesota struggles against Chicago, having been outscored 19-8 while losing four of five in the series.

Our sources tell us that Nicklas Backstrom will get the start in net tonight and he's 0-3-0 with a 3.84 goals against average in his last four starts vs. the Blackhawks.

This is the last game for both teams before the All-Star break; I believe there are just too many factors working in favor of the home side tonight.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Maple Leafs @ Lightning
PICK: Under 6

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Leafs have seen the total go "under" the number in 25 of 46 this year (with two "pushes"); last night they lost 6-4 in Carolina.

Note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 10 of 17 this season after allowing 4-goals or more in its previous contest.

On the other side of the rink: The Lightning have seen the total go "under" the number in 22 of 49 this year (with one "push"); on Sunday they hammered the Thrashers 7-1.

Note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of 16 this season after scoring 4-goals or more in its previous contest.

Bottom line: The Lightning are looking for their fifth consecutive victory tonight; they are 15-4-3 in front of the home town crowd; they are 5-1-1 vs. Toronto since 2007/08.

Dwayne Roloson gets the start for the home side and he has a 1.76 GAA while winning four of five vs. the Leafs.

Toronto is just 3 for 27 with the man advantage over its last eight games.

Both teams have the All-Star break after tonight; this number is just too high; consider a second look at the UNDER in this situation.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Washington Wizards +5.5

Denver is a completely different team on the road where it is 5-13 on the season and has lost three in a row and 12 of 15. The Nuggets are averaging 8.1 points fewer and allowing 4.4 points per game more outside the Pepsi Center. It's not like the Nuggets have only been losing to quality opponents either. They were blown out by 20 points at Sacramento earlier this month. The Wizards are 13-9 at home this season and defeated Boston 85-83 in their last home game. They have won 5 of their last 6 in their home gym. The Nuggets are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games as a favorite, losing these games by an average score of 104.8 to 104.6. The fade is on until Denver proves it can take care of business away from home, especially when laying this much chalk. Take the points.