Matt Fargo
Buffalo vs. Western Michigan
Play: Buffalo -2.5
Laying points with Buffalo may not seem sound in this spot but this is ideal to me. Buffalo is coming off a huge come-from-behind win over Ohio on Saturday to remain in a tie for first place in the MAC East and Tuesday marks the first could of games where we have the East playing the West with the former being much superior. No team has better than a 3-2 record in the MAC East as everyone has been beating up on each other. Ohio, the preseason favorite, is 1-4 and still cannot be counted out. All six teams in the East are separated by two games while the West is being overtaken by Ball St. which is 5-0 but all wins came against West opponents. Taking a look at power ratings, five of the top six spots in the MAC are held by East teams all of which are ranked 183rd or better while five of the bottom six teams are from the West, all of which are ranked 201st or worse with the bottom four being ranked 268th or worse. The point is laying points with the East on the road against the West is not an issue. Buffalo is currently the highest ranked MAC team in the conference and rightfully so. Despite just a game and a half difference over Western Michigan, the Bulls are outscoring opponents by 7.4 ppg while the Broncos are getting outscored by 1.5 ppg. Buffalo is shooting 48 percent from the floor including 47.4 percent on the road and on the season it is outshooting opponents by 6.4 percent while Western Michigan is getting outshot by less than a percent. Backing this up is that Buffalo has played a tougher schedule. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. The role of road favorite has not been a problem for the Bulls of late as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of three points or fewer. Western Michigan meanwhile, which is coming off a win against Northern Illinois, is 2-10 ATS coming off a conference in its last game over the last two seasons.
Tony George
Kansas vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +7.5
Colorado 11-0 at home and a very good sleeper team in the Big 12. They score 81 ppg at home and hit 51 percent from the floor on the season in Boulder! Kansas off a devastating loss and way to inconsistent right now to lay this type of number on the road. You never know who is going to show up for KU, and against Colorado at home, you better bet the A Game of the Buffs will be in tact and the arena sold out for this one. A very tough place to play. Colorado has some horses to hang tight and not sure how KU is going to react after a blowout loss as a big favortie against Texas on Saturday. A very tough spot for KU, I will galdly take the points here in a half unit free play.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Purdue Boilermakers +7.5
Purdue has either won or lost by 4 points or fewer in 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The Buckeyes are still undefeated by the skin of their teeth. In fact, 5 of their last 6 wins have come by 5 points or less. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Purdue may not be able to get the victory, but with a chance to break into a tie for 1st place in the Big Ten I expect the Boilermakers to take the Buckeyes right down to the wire. Take the points.
Ben Burns
Canadiens @ Flyers
PICK: Under 5.5
These teams played a high-scoring game against each other in mid-December. The Flyers won that 12/15 meeting by a score of 5-3. Tonight's "rematch" is likely to be considerably lower-scoring.
Note that this season's two earlier meetings averaged only four goals. They had scores of 3-0 and 3-2.
The Canadiens exploded for seven goals in their most recent road game, a 7-1 destruction of the Senators. However, even with that result, they're still averaging only 2.2 goals per game on the road. Prior to that game, they'd averaged only two goals per game, when playing away from Montreal.
Even including the result at Ottawa, the "under" is still a lucrative 17-4-2 in Montreal's road games. Those games have averaged only 4.5 combined goals. When playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, the Habs have seen the "under" go 12-2.
The Flyers are off a 4-1 win at Chicago on Sunday. They've now allowed three or fewer goals in six straight games, two or less in five of those. The Flyers have seen the "under" go 16-6 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 14-4 when coming off a win by two or more goals. Consider the Under.
Larry Ness
Purdue @ Ohio State
PICK: Ohio State -7
Ohio State came from eight points back in the second half to win 73-68 at Illinois on Saturday. OSU remains No. 1 for the second straight week, Monday garnering 63 of 65 first-place votes in Monday’s AP poll. Ohio State returned four starters from last year's 29-8 team, losing player-of-the-year Evan Turner (20.4-9.2-6.0) but guess what? In the 6-9 Sullinger (17.8-10.2), the Buckeyes have this year's freshman of the year and maybe more. The perimeter is manned by guards Buford (13.4-4.1-3.4) and Diebler (11.6-2.5 APG) along with excellent swingman Lighty (12.8-4.0-3.6), who has seemingly been in Columbus forever! Two more freshman, guard Craft (6.2-4.8 APG) and the 6-6 Thomas (9.5-4.2), are making HUGE contributions. Note that Thomas' numbers come in only 16 minutes per game. The Boilermakers saw Hummel (15.7-6.9 last season) go down before the year began, leaving them with only the 6-10 Johnson (20.7-7.9) and guard Moore (18.0-5.8-3.5) to rely on game-in and game-out. Purdue had won 10 straight road games (going back to last year) before losing its last two, 70-67 at Minnesota and 68-64 at West Va. Ohio State may be 7-0 in Big 10 play but FIVE of those wins have come by five points or less. However, after a scare at Illinois, I expect the Buckeyes to be very focused on the Boilermakers here, especially considering they won in Columbus last season, 60-57. However, no Hummel this time around, spells trouble for the Boilermakers. Look for the Buckeyes to roll. Lay the points.
EZWINNERS
Purdue Boilermakers +7.5
Purdue won't be intimidated in this match up as all as the Boilermakers have won three of the last four meetings between these two teams. OSU is very good and are led by freshman sensation Jared Sullinger, but Purdue is more than capable of winning this game outright. The Boilermakers have arguably the best duo in the Big Ten in JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore who combine to average more than half of the team's total scoring. Purdue also allows just 59.4 points per game this season and has only allowed two opponent to score more than seventy points this season. The underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams and I look for that trend to continue. Take the points.
Rocketman
NC State vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson -7.5
NC State is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year. NC State is 1-5 ATS this year against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less this year. Clemson is 16-3 ATS since 1997 as a home favorite of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Clemson has been strong at home this year with a 10-1 SU record and allowing only 58.7 points per game. Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. We'll recommend a small play on Clemson tonight!
Jack Jones
Marquette -4.5
Marquette is easily the best team in the country with 7 losses or more. Odds makers realize this as well, which is why they have set the Golden Eagles as a 4.5-point home favorite over a UConn Huskies team that is ranked No. 5 in the country at 16-2. Six of Marquette's seven losses this season have come on the road against mostly ranked opponents in Duke by 5, Gonzaga by 3, Wisconsin by 5, Vanderbilt by 1, Pitt by 8, Louisville by 1 and Notre Dame by 5. As you can see, none of their losses came by more than 8 points and six were by 5 or less which featured several second-half blown leads.
The Golden Eagles have been taking care of business at home this season, going 11-1 where they are outscoring opponents by 21.4 PPG. Marquette has won all three of their conference home games this season where they are averaging 85.1 PPG at the Bradley Center. Both of UConn's losses have come on the road this year. The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Marquette is 12-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. UConn is 24-44 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. Roll with Marquette Tuesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -7.5
The time to back Kansas is following a loss. That's because the Jayhawks are a perfect 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning in this situation by an average score of 82.2 to 64.9. Plus, defeating Colorado has been no problem for Kansas. Dating back to 1998, the Jayhawks are 26-1 against the Buffs, defeating them by an average score of 83 to 67. Following its first loss of the season, Kansas will be out for blood tonight. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Jazz/Lakers OVER 197
Looking at recent history between the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers, it's easy to see why we are selecting the OVER tonight as Tuesday's free pick. The Jazz and Lakers have combined to score 198 or more points in 6 straight meetings. Pertaining to this total set tonight, that's a perfect 6-0 OVER Angle. Both teams are going to bring a lot of energy to the court tonight considering Utah is playing on 2 days' rest and Los Angeles is playing on 3 days' rest. The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games playing on 2 days rest, while the OVER is 5-1-1 in Lakers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Each team will certainly be looking to run the floor more tonight than normal. Utah has allowed 99 or more points in 8 of their last 9 games, while the Lakers have scored 100 or more points in 8 of their last 9. The OVER is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Los Angeles. The OVER is 43-20-1 in Jazz last 64 games as a road underdog, including 38-13-2 in Jazz last 53 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Utah is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER 197 points here.
Info Plays
3* Sacramento Kings -1
Reasons why Sacramento will cover:
1) The Kings are actually playing pretty well lately, despite their record. The Bobcats are just 5-14 on the road, but because of the Kings poor record the public will side with the Bobcats. Oddsmakers have the Kings favored for a reason in this game.
2) Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference, and are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
3) Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Steve Janus
1* Purdue +7.5
The Boilermakers have done a great job keeping tough games on the road close, and Ohio State is simply giving way to many points at home. The Buckeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Outside of a 22 point home win against a bad Iowa team, the Buckeyes have won by just three points against the likes of Minnesota and Penn State at home in conference play. Purdue is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and has the experience with seniors JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore to beat a great team like Ohio State, let alone keep it within 7 points.
OC Dooley
Marquette -4
One has to wonder why Marquette is being asked to lay this many points against a sizzling hot opponent (16-2) who currently has a lofty national ranking. All Connecticut has done in the past week is defeat Villanova on a buzzer beater along with surviving a tough non-conference challenge against Tennessee during the weekend where the Volunteers had the services of head coach Bruce Pearl. In that weekend triumph Connecticut scored a grand total of 24 points off of turnovers as they continue to be opportunistic. The current 5-0 run of prosperity by the Huskies began when they traveled to Texas as a large 8’-point underdog and pulled off one of the many upsets dotting the college basketball landscape. As mentioned earlier Marquette is being asked to lay a large amount of points tonight even though they are currently riding a negative 2-3 slide. The most damaging setback was ten days ago at Louisville when Marquette blew a massive 18-point lead with just 6:00 remaining on the clock. Despite these negatives Marquette is a dominant HOME team (11-1) where the offense averages 85 points per contest, which is in stark contrast to what this team accomplishes (75 ppg) on the highway. My database research has uncovered an UNDEFEATED two-year angle which sees Marquette COVERING SIX IN A ROW immediately after a high-scoring road affair where both teams put at least 75 points on the scoreboard. Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!