DAVE COKIN
TENNESSEE AT ALABAMA
PLAY: TENNESSEE +4
I’m playing strengths vs. weaknesses tonight as Tennessee pays a visit to Alabama. As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m big on keying on categories and looking for underdog advantages, and we’ve got some to look at in this game.
One area of interest in turnovers. The Volunteers are taking good care of the basketball, with one of the better ball security percentages in D1 this season. The same cannot be said for the Crimson Tide, who are toward the bottom of the national rankings offensively and really aren’t significantly better on the defensive end. Things haven’t changed much since SEC league play began, with Tennessee still holding pretty substantial edges in this category on both ends of the court.
There’s also a huge free throw accuracy disparity in play here. The Vols are one of the better foul shooting teams in D1, and they’ve even money at the stripe in league play, with a sensational 81% conversion rate. Contrast that with Alabama, and it’s a blowout comparison. The Tide have failed at the foul line all season, and have gotten worse since conference play got started, connecting at a pathetic 61% clip.
Those aren’t the only areas where Tennessee holds an edge, but they’re the biggest differentials. To be sure, Alabama also does some things better than their guests, and I can’t deny the fact that the Tide have a clear size advantage tonight. Tennessee is a very small team and my biggest concern tonight is how well the Volunteers do when it comes to prevent second chances opportunities for the Tide. As lousy as Alabama is at the foul line, my play could get in trouble if the Volunteers are forced to foul the bigger Tide players.
But the bottom line for me is that I’ve got a good number of check marks on the Tennessee side when doing the head to head comparisons, and these types of plays have produced pretty well in terms of garnering an edge with the underdog. So I’ll stay that course in this game and will side with Tennessee plus the points.
Marc Lawrence
Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Florida +5
Edges - Gators: 9-1 ATS as road dogs between home games. Commodores: 4-15 ATS home in conference games between away games. With the Gators 5-2 SU and ATS in SEC play this season, and Vandy 2-5 ATS in conference games this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Florida.
Scott Spreitzer
Creighton vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown -3½
The race in the Big East is flying under the radar with four teams tied for second and currently trailing 6th-ranked Villanova by 1 1/2 games in the standings. Second place will be narrowed down tonight with Xavier taking on Providence and Creighton in DC to face Georgetown. The Blue Jays won the first meeting, 79-66 in Omaha on January 5. The game was closer than the final score would indicate with Georgetown leading by three points, more than midway through the second half and within six points with three minutes to go. The Hoyas had no problem with Creighton's defensive work, making 47% of their FGA, including 11 of 24, 46% from behind the arc. The difference in the game came at the stripe where Creighton outscored the Hoyas 21-3, afforded 25 FTA to just seven for Georgetown. The Jays are 3-3 SU on the road this season with the wins coming against DePaul, St. John's, and Seton Hall, teams with a combined conference record of 4-17 SU. This will be their toughest conference road game to date and we believe the Hoyas will be ready for revenge. Georgetown can slam the door on the defensive end where they rank 18th in the nation in FG percentage allowed, holding the opposition to 38.7% shooting. The Hoyas lost last time out to UConn, but they're on a 27-11 ATS run off a loss. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run in conference action.
Frank Jordan
Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Phoenix Suns +3
Best of the Worst these two teams are in the bottom five of the entire league as Phoenix is 5th worst with a 14-31 record and the Sixers are dead last at 6-39. Phoenix is coming off a victory and Philadelphia is 3-7 in their last 10 despite coming off a loss. Phoenix is 5-12 against the East and 4-18 on the road while Philadelphia is 3-17 at home and 5-13 against the West. Both teams allow over 104 points a game and Phoenix at least scores 101 while Philadelphia is a league worst 94 point a game. Look for the Suns to run away with this as the Sixers can't keep up with the scoring of the Suns.
Jim Feist
Magic at Bucks
Pick: Over
The Orlando Magic had a tough loss on Monday, leading late over Memphis only to get forced to OT. Then in OT, the Magic lost by six points getting 5 1/2. Tough loss for us and the bettors who had the Magic in that game. The Bucks had their modest three game win streak snapped at Houston on Friday and then lost at New Orleans on Saturday. This will be the second meeting of the season between these clubs, with Orlando taking the game in Florida back on Nov 27, 114-90. The Bucks are 4-2-1 O/U/P their last seven games. In addition, the Bucks are 14-6 O/U in their last 20 games against the Eastern Conference. The Magic might be a bit tired out here and I like that to lend towards an OVER play.
Power Sports
Mavericks vs. Lakers
Pick: Mavericks
The Lakers have sunk to the bottom of my power ratings (yes, even below Philly) thanks to six straight losses, all of which have come by double digits. The latest was on Saturday & saw them fall 121-103 at Portland. For tonight's game vs. Dallas, it looks as if the oddsmakers aren't giving them nearly enough help yet again.
The Mavs have lost B2B games themselves, the more recent coming at Houston on Sunday by a score of 115-104. This is the middle game of a three-game trip that has them in Golden State tomorrow night (big revenge spot for the Warriors). With that matchup not looking ideal, it becomes all the more imperative that Dallas wins here as they don't want to fall any further down the Western Conference standings. Fortunately for them, when coming off a double digit loss this season, they've responded by going a strong 8-2 against the spread.
The Lakers have been torched for 108 or more points in six consecutive contests. This is a team that not only ranks 30th (i.e. last) in defensive efficiency, but also 29th in offensive efficiency. They've lost to Dallas nine straight times, going just 2-7 ATS. This will be the third meeting this year and the final margins for the previous two were 8 and 10 points. LA's straight up record vs. teams averaging more than 99 points per game is a woeful 4-27. Dallas averages 101.2 PPG. The Lakers have not covered either time this year that they were a home dog in the +6.5 to +9 point range.
Jesse Schule
Washington vs. Toronto
Pick: Washington
The Toronto Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, coming off eight straight wins. They host a Washington team tonight that has lost three of four at home. So should we chalk up an easy win for the Dinosaurs? I wouldn't be so quick to lay a bunch of points with a complacent home favorite facing a division rival. There's been plenty of bad blood between these two teams in recent years, and while Toronto has won all three meetings this season, the Wizards are 7-1 ATS in the last eight, and they've covered the spread in four straight at Toronto.
Neither team has managed to score 100 points in any of the previous three games this season, and eight of the last 10 meetings north of the border have come short of the total. The Raptors won their last home game against Washington by a score of 94-91, and Bradley Beal sat out that game with an injury. Beal is questionable to play tonight, after leaving last night's game due to suffering a blow to the head. He just returned after being sidelined for 16 games. The Wizards were 8-8 during that 16 game span.
Bruce Marshall
Wyoming at Fresno State
Pick: Wyoming
Note that Wyo high-scoring G Josh Adams (23.9 ppg) is expected to be available after serving a one-game suspension in Saturday's home loss to Boise State. Adams' availability and HC Larry Shyatt's shrewdness should be enough to keep the Cowboys close vs. up-and-down Fresno side that is also very reliant upon one scorer (G Marvelle Harris 19 ppg) and has been alternating wins and losses in Mountain West play.
Brad Diamond
Wizards vs. Raptors
Play: Over 204
Washington (20-22) is besieged these days by a rabid fan base that is unhappy with former Indiana University stalwart, and now their head coach…Randy Wittman. But, in all respects the Wizards have been riddled by injuries this season…Porter and Gooden now back in the lineup, and Dudley scored 15 against Boston. Still, there is more issues with Beal leaving (vs. Celtics) with a concussion, status questionable for Toronto. Washington is 1-3 SU last four vs. Boston, Miami, Portland and Boston again. We note, the Wizards do NOT match-up well with the Celtics. Here the lines makers quickly adjusted the total down (205) after posting 214 vs. Boston. Granted LOW has been the series call of late, 3-0 UNDER with numbers 203, 203-1/2 and 201-1/2. In their last 5 meetings Toronto (22-22 O/U) has scored under 100 points, and possess one of the best defenses in NBA holding units to 96.8 (#4) points per game. Since 12/30/15 the Wizards are 9-5 UNDER. But, the Wizards are #24 in points allowed 104.1 coming in, that’s a depreciation of almost 7 points over 2014. One of Washington’s issues defensively is stopping scoring, penetrating type guards…and here comes loaded Toronto. The Wizards have problems cutting off the passing lanes, while fouling these type guards. Which adds to the foul shooting percentages and open floor shots. Washington is 22-18 OVER this season. Here the Wizards will struggle to win SU as the Raptors are rolling 8-0 streak SU (7-1 ATS). In those games, the Raptors have played well offensively, averaging 105.3 points, while shooting 48.3% from the field carrying an 80% FT marker too. With DeRozan (23.2) and Lowry (20.7) creating havoc for the Wizards defense additional opportunities will be available for the remaining starters. Although I am supporting the Toronto side SU, would suggest they just maybe a little flat knowing the Washington issues, and have a revenge game on-deck with the Knicks. Technically, Washington is 5-0 OVER in back-to-back games (no rest) and opposing Toronto shows 5-1 OVER versus visiting road units.
Ari Atari
Suns vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers -3
Phoenix is a disaster right now with the plenty of ugly losses and injuries. Brandon Knight will be missed alongside Jon Leuer who is doubtful. Markieff Morris will most likely have to give it a go with a sore shoulder but the Suns are just too thin and will not be able to run with the Sixers tonight. Both teams are pitiful, but the the Sixers are always looking at the upside and learning how to play together with players buying into the coaching schemes to highlight their cohesive ability to move the ball. Ish Smith is more than a welcome addition and Okafor's numbers are improving because of it.
The Suns won a shocker at home to Atlanta on Saturday but it'll only serve to diminish their motivation for this game ,especially since they've got Lebron and the Cavs tomorrow followed by their one and only game in MSG against the Knicks. The 76ers will catch them overlooking this game and they'll counter with a unified young offense against a makeshift group of mostly bench players who are clearly in doubt of their identity as a team in Phoenix. Look for Philly to capitalize in this matchup. The Suns are 0-5 ATS on the road while Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall.
Jimmy Boyd
76ers -3
Philadelphia comes into this game off a 92-112 blowout loss at home to the Celtics and Phoenix is off a 98-95 win at home over Atlanta as a 10-point dog, yet the 76ers are a 3-point home favorite against the Suns. That right there tells you what the oddsmakers think of Phoenix and their ability to string together their first back-to-back wins since early December. Regardless of the situation the betting public wants nothing to do with Philadelphia, so for them to be favored that's a good sign the books expect them to have the clear advantage in this one.
While the 76ers are clearly not a good team, they have been showing signs of improvement of late. Philadelphia is 5-9 in their last 14, splitting their last 4 with impressive wins at home against the Blazers (114-89) and on the road against the Magic (96-87). Keep in mind this is a team that was just 1-30 in their first 31 games, so 5-9 is quite a big step in the right direction.
I wasn't all that surprised to see the Suns play hard at home against a quality opponent like the Hawks, plus you have to consider that wasn't a great spot for Atlanta. I just don't see Phoenix caring all that much about beating a team like the 76ers. Let's not forget this is a team that has lost 10 straight on the road with each of their last 5 losses away from home coming by at least 14-points and that includes a 20-point loss on the road against the Lakers, who are every bit as bad as the 76ers.
Suns are 4-12 ATS in their 16 games this season against a team with a losing record, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after a SU win. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 against the Western Conference and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss.
Ricky Tran
Mavs vs. Lakers
Plsy: Mavs -7½
Free pick on the Mavs - The Mavs have won nine straight meetings with the Lakers covering the spread in seven of the games. They're off a pair of losses against the Thunder 109-106 and the Rockets 115-104 but are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Lakers have the second worst record in the NBA and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The mood in the Lakers camp might not be the best after Kobe Bryant allegedly criticized D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle's attitude following Saturday's 121-103 loss to the Trail Blazers. Perhaps Bryant should focus on his own performance instead though after scoring in single digits in five of his last seven games.
Sleepyj
Fresno St. -7
I'll be on the Bulldogs here tonight...I made my line -10 for this contest tonight...Playing in Laramie is one thing, but bringing the Cowboys on the road won;t be all that successful here tonight.....IMO the Bulldogs are a well rounded group..They don;t do any one thing particularly bad...They do a few thing very well though..It starts with rebounding the basketball tonight....Wyoming is one of the worst teams in all of CBB on the glass..Fresno is very good as they rank in the 60's...They should win the rebounding battle by a landslide in this one..Second chance points will be big for us here tonight....Cowboys don;t assist the ball well and the defense had slide down after a few strong years on that end for the Cowboys...Wyoming is coming off two losses in this one..Fresno off a road win Vs. Air Force in a game we faded the Bulldogs and cashed in with...We ride the Bulldogs here in this one tonight..Something tells me this one gets it done by double digits...I got this one 74-60 area.
SPORTS WAGERS
Anaheim +105 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins played in Philadelphia last night and while they won 3-2, it was one of those energy draining games that take a toll. Boston had an outstanding first period but from the start of the second to the final buzzer, Boston had to fend off the hard charging Flyers. Boston was outshot 15-6 in the second and 13-9 in the third. The Bruins will now play their third game in four nights, fifth game in seven days and tail end of back-to-backs here. After this one, Boston is off until after the All-Star break, which might be something they’re looking more forward to than this game. The B’s could certainly be drained here while the Ducks are lying in wait.
Anaheim is coming on big time. They have won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the Kings, 3-2. The Ducks have shot up the analytical charts and are now ranked third in Corsi against behind New Jersey and Los Angeles. Anaheim has outshot its last 13 opponents and many of those were by a wide margin. They have allowed 26 shots on net or less nine times in those 13 games. They have several players all heating up at the same time and now they have three lines all rolling. The Ducks have suddenly become one of the toughest outs in the league. They’re performing at an extremely high level and they come in here rested, raring to go and very determined to make the playoffs. They are six points back of a playoff spot right now but they have three games in hand on the teams above them. In this the Ducks final game before the break, expect another big effort, as they have a seriously significant edge in form, situation and likely energy too.
Buffalo +136 over OTTAWA
OT included. We wouldn’t this price with the Senators even if the game was final. The Sens are coming off a 3-0 win over the Rangers in a game that Rangers Coach, Alain Vigneault suggested, “Not one guy showed up”. Prior to that, Ottawa lost 7-1 in Washington, 4-1 in Anaheim, 6-3 in New Jersey and 5-2 at home against the Islanders. Between the Anaheim and New Jersey losses, the Sens defeated Los Angeles (5-3) and San Jose (4-3) both on the road with the latter game occurring in OT. In the wins against Los Angeles and San Jose, Ottawa was outshot 33-23 and 35-17 respectively. When a team gives up three goals in this league, its win expectation is roughly 20% and that number decreases when a team gives up four. Before defeating a sloppy Rangers’ squad, Ottawa had given up three goals or more in six straight games. They allow an average of 33.3 shots on net per game, which ranks dead last in the NHL. Even in its win over the Rangers, Ottawa allowed 35 shots on goal. If you prefer analytics to surface stats, Ottawa ranks dead last in several of those defensive categories as well. Teams like Detroit, Florida, St. Louis and Dallas are frequently favored in this range but there is not a single team in the NHL that the Senators deserve to be favored by this much over.
The Sabres are frequently on our slate not because we love them but because they are constantly undervalued. Last night’s 6-3 loss in New York didn’t do anything to enhance their market appeal but the score was nowhere close to revealing what took place on the ice. At one point in the second period, the Rangers had coughed the puck up 12 times to the Sabres three times. The Sabres rallied from two down early in the third before coughing up the lead almost instantly thereafter. Chad Johnson did not have a good game but the Sabres once again did not play poorly. Tonight, they’ll go with Robin Lehner in goal, the ex-Senator that really didn’t get a chance in Ottawa because Craig Anderson was the go-to-guy and Andrew Hammond caught fire. Lehner is 0-3 this year but he’s been terrific in his last two starts with SV%’s of .943 and .955 in his second and third games back after sitting out the first 3½ months of the season. The players in front of him know how important this game is to him and we trust them to dig down even a little deeper in an attempt to get the kid his first win in a Sabres uniform. Prior to last night’s loss in New York, Buffalo had allowed just 15 goals against in their previous seven games. This market does not watch the Sabres much and they don’t like the Sabres very much either but this team plays a sound brand of hockey that on their worst day can compete with the Senators. Big overlay.
Arizona +140 over WINNIPEG
OT included. Arizona played in Minnesota last night and pulled a couple of rabbits out of their hat to pick up the victory. First, the Coyotes were outshot 24-6 after two periods so they were bailed out by their goaltender. Secondly, the ‘Yotes scored a shorthanded goal with about a minute left in regulation to tie it before winning it in a shootout. Many things had to go right for them to win that game but they found their legs in the third period when they controlled the pace and fired away 17 shots on net. There’s a good chance that carries over into this one. Prior to last night’s lethargic first two periods, Arizona held eight straight opponents to 28 shots on net or fewer and six of those to 26 shots on net or less. The Coyotes have now won two straight and have outshot seven of their past nine opponents. This is another one of those constantly underpriced teams that the markets pays little attention to.
Winnipeg is high on our fade list and will remain there until they show us something different. The Jets longest winning streak this year is two games. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss to the Devils to run their losing streak to three games in which the Jets have been outscored 9-3. Winnipeg’s last victory was 1-0 over the Wild. They have scored one goal in four straight games. The Jets most energetic players that get this team revved up from time to time are out. That would be Mathieu Perreault and Mark Scheifele. There’s also a chance that Bryan Little and Adam Lowry will miss this one too so that leaves a giant hole up the middle with three centers on the rack. The Jets are less than the sum of their parts, and their individual parts are in turn less than the sum and substance they have been, too. The individual and collective breakdowns have created a noxious mixture of doubt and passivity on the ice. The shared chip on their shoulder that they possessed last season along with the swagger, well, they’re history too. These are essentially the same players playing under the same system, so the repeated fundamental breakdowns in discipline, defensive-zone coverage in general and defending the front of the net, specifically, are baffling. The Jets look awful. They look unsettled. They don’t look like a well-coached team. They look like a team going through the motions that will need rookie Connor Hellebuyck to be at the height of his powers every night in order to have a chance to win. The Jets will win some more games this year but when they’re favored, especially in this price range against a team that plays with miles more desire and passion than they do, they are to be instantly faded.
Wunderdog
Washington @ Toronto
Pick: Washington +8
Washington tries to avenge a 97-88 loss to Toronto on Jan. 8 when the Wizards shot just 39.3 percent from the field and made only eight of 25 from distance. DeMar DeRozan exploded for 35 points in that matchup with Kyle Lowry adding 21 points. The Wizards lost 116-91 last night to Boston as they were outscored 63-42 in the second half. Otto Porter and Jared Dudley scored 15 points apiece but the Wizards couldn't slow down the Celtics, who shot 48.9 percent from the field. Toronto has won eight in a row following a 112-94 win over the Clippers on Sunday as Lowry finished with 21 points. Seven players scored in double figures for the Raptors. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS their last five road games and have covered the number their last four games in Toronto and are 7-1 ATS their last eight meetings overall. Also, the road team has covered nine of the last 13 meetings. Look for Washington to bounce back from last night's loss, so play the Wizards in this one.