Will Rodgers
California vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
The California Golden Bears will be on the road at Utah on Wednesday. Both teams are 4-3 in conference play, and the Utes are just a slight favorite at home in this contest. The Utes beat California by a score of 76-61 in Utah last season, and I think the home team will prevail once again.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Utes have won four of their last five overall, and they've won three of their last four versus California. They've scored a ton of points at home, averaging 85.1 points on 50.8 percent shooting while winning nine of 10.
2. Home Cookin' - The Utes are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Cal is 2-5 ATS in it's last seven road games.
3. X-Factor - The Bears will be without senior PG Tyrone Wallace, who is sidelined with a hand injury.
Teddy Covers
Xavier vs. Providence
Pick: Xavier
To say that this is a brutal spot for the home underdog is something of an understatement. Providence is facing the best two teams in the Big East in back-to-back games. To make matters worse, their schedule has been negatively affected by the East Coast blizzard last weekend.
The Friars were supposed to face Villanova in Philly on Saturday at noon. Instead, that game got pushed back to Sunday at 1 PM. And that matchup with the Wildcats was a real doozy. Providence won the game in overtime, and they were thrilled about it. Head coach Ed Cooley: “This is an unbelievable win for us.” Leading scorer Ben Bentil played the entire 45 minutes. NBA prospect Kris Dunn played 43 minutes of court time. It was an intense, grueling contest, plain and simple.
Instead of two days of prep time for Xavier, the postponement versus Villanova and the subsequent travel home has left Providence with very little left in the tank AND very little prep time for the Musketeers. Coming off an ‘unbelievable win’ at Villanova, and on the heels of another down-to-the-wire, rally-from-behind -late intense win over Top 25 Butler in their previous game, I’m expecting the Friars to be a notch or two sluggish this evening. And that’s VERY bad news against Xavier.
Let’s not forget that Providence has been vulnerable here at the Dunkin Donuts Center, suffering previous Big East home losses here in January as 9.5 point favorites against Marquette and as six point favorites against Seton Hall. Nor should we forget that the perimeter oriented Friars have been going though a nasty shooting slump of late, hitting just 37% from the floor in their last five games. A team that is struggling to shoot the basketball won’t be helped by tired legs and short turnaround times between games!
Xavier has been an undervalued commodity since before Thanksgiving, riding an 11-4 ATS hot streak into Tuesday. Chris Mack’s team is a nightmare for a gassed opponent because this team is an intense as their coach, particularly oh the defensive end of the floor. Xavier doesn’t give up transition opportunities or easy looks near the basket. Opponents have to work for their shot on every possession
The Musketeers have been winning SU in hostile environments all year. They won their pre-Thanksgiving tournament with wins over Dayton, USC and Alabama on a neutral floor in Florida. They beat the Wolverines by 16 in Ann Arbor, knocked off Wake Forest by eight in Winston-Salem, and notched a pair of eight point road wins at Marquette and St John’s here in Big East play.
The Musketeers are elite defensively. They’re big and physical in the low post, outrebounding opponents by nine boards per game. They hit free throws at a 74% clip, so important in these short pointspread games. Unlike Providence, who relies on their two stars for the majority of their production, Xavier has a balanced offense featuring six players averaging at least 8.5 points per game.
The Musketeers still remember losing in overtime on this floor last year in a game where they were just 2-16 from three point range. Expect better shooting from beyond the arc tonight in a game Xavier should win by a bucket or more.
Tony George
Drake vs. Illinois State
Play: Under 135½
You better not expect a shootout here, and with Drake catching 8.5 points here, those points might come into play with 2 bad teams going at it.
Bottom line in this Total is set at 135.5 and that is too high. I know the Mo Valley very well gents, and am 7-1 ATS with Mo Valley Premium CBB Plays this season as it is my specialty conference, and these two teams will not break 65 on offense in my opinion. Illinois State’s 9 games at home this season has included 6 of them going Under. Drake struggles on offense and scores just 61 ppg on the road and ISU manages just 65 ppg at home.
Adding fuel to this trend play is that Illinois State’s last 78 home games, saw 53 of them go Under and Drake has went Under is 22 out of their last 32 road games.
Brian Hay
Indiana vs. Wisconsin
Play: Indiana -1
The Indiana Hoosiers have won 12 straight games and they will make it 13 straight tonight by winning in Madison for the first time since 1998. Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan retired at the right time as this is one of the worst Wisconsin teams in recent memory. The Badgers have won their last two games but they did not play well in the second half against Penn State and I expect that to carry over into this game. Wisconsin has already lost five times in Madison this season. Indiana played their worst game during this winning streak against Wisconsin in Bloomington but they still won the game. Indiana is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against team
Dave Price
Mississippi State +8.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks are one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their 17-2 record has been aided by an extremely easy schedule. But their true colors have shown in the last two weeks as they are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost at Alabama by 23 and at Tennessee by 9. They barely escaped with a 77-74 win at Ole Miss, and they failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites against Missouri in a 9-point win. Conversely, Mississippi State is better than its 8-10 record would suggest. The Bulldogs are only 1-5 in SEC play, but four of their five losses were extremely close. They lost to Texas A&M by 1 at home, to Kentucky by 6 on the road, to Tennessee by 5 at home, and to Florida by 3 on the road. Those 4 results show that they can play with South Carolina and should stay within this 8.5-point spread. The Gamecocks are 0-7 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Brandon Lee
Florida State vs. Boston College
Play: Florida State -10
The Seminoles are going to be extremely motivated when they take the floor tonight against the Eagles, as Florida State comes in off back-to-back losses against two of the better teams in the ACC in Louisville and Pittsburgh. In fact, all 5 of the Seminoles defeats in conference play have come against the top teams, as the other three are road games against Miami and Clemson and a home loss to North Carolina. Boston College is the perfect team to get back on track, as the Eagles are awful. They are 0-6 in league play with all 6 losses coming by at least 13 points. Florida State won 85-78 at NC State and should have no problem winning here by more than 10-points.
Jack Jones
Northern Illinois +5½
The Northern Illinois Huskies are the best team in the MAC this season. Now we are getting them as underdogs tonight in what I believe to be a great value play as Tuesday's free pick.
The Huskies have gone 16-3 SU & 10-4 ATS this season, so they have been undervalued time and time again. They have won nine of their last 10 games overall coming in and have opened 5-1 in conference play.
Akron is 15-4 on the season. The Zips are certainly contenders to win the MAC as well, but they should not be laying 5.5 points here. They are 4-2 in conference play with blowout road losses to Central Michigan (by 11) and Toledo (by 14), and unconvincing wins over Buffalo (by 4) and Eastern Michigan (by 4).
Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Northern Illinois and Akron have faced the same four teams this season. Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against them, outscoring them by 4.4 points per game. Akron is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS against them, getting outscored by 3.0 points per game.
Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Huskies are 26-8-4 ATS in their last 38 conference games. The Huskies are 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Joseph D'Amico
Mavs vs. Lakers
Play: Mavs -7½
Dallas has dominated Los Angeles, winning 9 in a row in the series, and going 7-2 ATS, including a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) mark at the Staples Center. Zaza Pachulia is well-rested, having sat out Sunday's contest. The Center, along with Dwight Powell and Dirk Nowitzki have owned the paint in the two earlier meetings (both wins and covers) this season. The Mavs enter this game dropping their L2, so you know they are looking forward to a big, "confidence boost" here. Overall, they have been getting followers paid, riding a 7-3-1 ATS run. Kobe Bryant made headlines this week for tearing into D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle. The Lakers are 9-37 overall, 5-15 at home, 1-10 their L11 SU, and are crushing bettors, going 1-5 ATS their L6. With Bryant posting single digits in seven straight games and dissention in the locker room, the Nowitzki-led Dallas squad continues their domination over Los Angeles. The Lakers are 15-40-1 ATS their L56 games vs. the Western Conference.
Scott Rickenbach
Kings vs. Blazers
Play: Kings +5½
With Rudy Gay expected to miss tonight for the Kings, the line has really jumped on the Blazers here. That has created good line value on Sacramento tonight as I expect others will step up for the Kings with Gay out of the lineup tonight. This happens a lot when a key player is out with an injury and there is over-reaction in terms of the line movement. Sacramento is seeking revenge for a four point home loss as a nine point favorite earlier this season. You can bet that the Kings will be ready to go tonight. A one point home loss to Charlotte last night has "fanned the flames" for the fire burning for the Kings right now. Sacramento seeks revenge tonight and they had won and covered 5 straight games before last night's loss. Unlike the Kings, the Trail Blazers are off of a win but had lost 2 of their 3 prior games. Portland had been held under 100 points in three of their five games prior to the big win over the hapless Lakers on Saturday. The Blazers have an ugly long-term mark of 65-101 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Kings are 7-4 ATS this season when playing the second night of a back to back. Also, Sacramento is 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points.
David Banks
Xavier @ Providence
Pick: Providence Pk
Forced to play on Sunday due to the snowstorm that blasted the East Coast, 16th-ranked Providence upset No. 4 Villanova in overtime. Can the 17-3 Friars take out No. 5 Xavier just two days later? Providence meets the Musketeers on their home court Tuesday night with a chance to make a statement not only in the Big East, but also in the national rankings.
Xavier, 17-2 overall and 5-2 in Big East play, recovered from an upset loss to Georgetown (12-8, 5-2) by defeating Seton Hall 84-76 on Saturday. Trevon Bluiett, a 6-6 sophomore, is one of the nation’s most underrated players averaging 15.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He and 6-10 James Farr give Xavier a dynamic inside-outside combination. Farr scored 24 points in the win over Seton Hall and averages nearly a double-double per game (10.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg).
The Friars are tough to beat period and even tougher at home. They have wins over a ranked Arizona team and have defeated Butler (also ranked at the time) twice. Sunday’s win over Villanova proves that the Friars are ready to change the guard in the Big East. Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn are two of the best players in the Big East and are the big reason why Villanova’s 22-game conference winning streak ended. Bentil, who averages 19.2 points per game, scored 31 points and had 12 rebounds in the win over the Wildcats. Dunn, last year’s co-Big East Player of the Year, had 13 points and 14 assists on Sunday. If the pair is hot on Tuesday night, the Friars will defeat their second straight ranked opponent.
Mr. Vegas
Kansas St at West Virginia
Take West Virginia
Big 12 matchup between Kansas St and West Virginia. Kansas State has struggled, especially in conference play where they are just 2-5 S/U. The Wildcats are averaging 73.6 points on 43.3 percent shooting while allowing 66.8 points on 41.8 percent. West Virginia is off to an excellent start at 16-3 S/U and 5-2 in conference play. The Mountaineers are averaging 82.2 points on 46.2 percent shooting. WVU has been very good against the spread, especially at home where they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. West Virginia can cover these double digit numbers with the amount of points that that put on the board.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Central Michigan (-4) at MIAMI OHIO
The STORYLINE in this game today - Headed to the Mid-American Conference for my free play tonight, as the Central Michigan Chippewas (10-9, 3-3 MAC) visit Miami (Ohio) (6-13, 0-6) The RedHawks are in big trouble for this one, as they have lost nine straight games after a 6-4 start.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is resiliency. The Chippewas find ways to win, even on their worst shooting days. For instance, they're in after horrendous shooting percentages in victories over Ohio and Akron, wins that sandwiched two losses. This team picks itself up and wins when it needs to. Tonight the Chipps will annihilate the struggling RedHawks.
BOTTOM LINE is - Miami is led by the guard tandem of Eric Washington and Geovonie McKnight, who combine to average 27.8 points per game. But they are the only RedHawks who average in double figures, and after that there isn't much to rely on. That won't help. Take the road team.
3* CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Iron Dukes of Duquesne to hand La Salle another lopsided loss.
The Explorers have actually won the last 5 series meetings, but that streak is about to be halted, as La Salle enters this one having dropped 11 of their last 12 games, and they have lost their last 4 games by double-digits!
Duquesne is finally back home after getting stranded on the Pennsylvania Turnpike over the weekend in that blizzard that blanketed the area, and the Dukes have picked up wins and covers in 3 of their last 4.
Iron Dukes end their series losing streak at 5 in a row in a big way tonight.
3* DUQUESNE
Chris Jordan
Oklahoma was No. 1 last week. It lost. The Sooners are still No. 1.
They're that good. Kudos Lon Kruger.
Tonight I will lay the points at home with the Sooners, as they host Texas Tech in a battle of seasoned veteran coaches. Kruger matches wits with Tubby Smith, whom I have the utmost respect for, but I don't think has the talent to match Oklahoma.
I think the Sooners will unleash a barrage of treys tonight, as they currently rank first nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (.464) by hitting 200-431 of its shots from behind the arc. Oklaoma has connected on at least 10 3-pointers in 12 games this year (one shy of school record) while its 11.1 3-point makes per game ranks fourth nationally.
The Sooners' starting five is averaging 48.9 percent from 3-point range (172-352).
Oklahoma also ranks in the nation’s top 20 in both scoring offense, with 85.5 points per game (sixth), and scoring margin (+13.9, 19th) by limiting opponents to just 71.6 points per contest.
Furthermore, the Sooners have scored at least 80 points in 13 of 18 contests this season, and at the other end, Oklahoma leads the Big 12 in field goal percentage defense (.394).
Take Oklahoma tonight.
2* OKLAHOMA
Scott Delaney
My free play for Tuesday night is the Virginia Cavaliers minus the number against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest is hosting this one, but it has lost its last three games by huge margins, and I think will be in big trouble against No. 11 Virginia, which has won the last three meetings - including a 70-34 embarrassment in Winston-Salem on Feb. 25.
The Demon Deacons made just 12 field goals while shooting a bleak 21.8 percent and went 4 of 22 from 3-point range for one of their worst offensive games in school history. I doubt it can be any worse, but they'll struggle against a physical team that plays tough D and crashes the boards.
Wake has lost seven of nine, including its last three games by an average of 19.0 points, while shooting 37.9 percent and 17.9 from 3-point range.
Lay the road chalk.
2* VIRGINIA