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(11) Kansas State (16-3, 9-4-1 ATS) at (24) Baylor (15-3, 9-2 ATS)
The Wildcats hope to rebound from Saturday’s shocking home loss to Oklahoma State when they visit the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, for a Big 12 battle with Baylor, who are unbeaten at home.
Kansas State handed then-top-ranked Texas its first loss of the season eight days ago, winning 71-62 as a one-point home favorite, but failed to capitalize on that momentum when it fell 73-69 to Oklahoma State as a 9½-point home favorite. The Wildcats went 13-1 in non-conference play, but they’re just 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in Big 12 action (1-1, 0-1-1 ATS on the road).
The Bears have split their first four Big 12 contests (3-1 ATS), but they took a brief break from conference play Saturday, crushing UMass 71-45 and easily covering as a 17-point favorite. Although Baylor has alternated SU wins and losses in its last five games, it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 lined games, including an ongoing three-game spread-covering win streak. The Bears are a perfect 10-for-10 at the Ferrell Center (3-0 ATS in lined contests), outscoring visitors by an average of 21.5 points per game (80.7-59.2) while shooting 49.5 percent from the field and holding opponents to 34 percent.
Baylor smoked the Wildcats in last year’s lone meeting, rolling 83-65 as a 3½-point road underdog. The Bears have won three of the last four meetings, and they’re 6-1 ATS in the last seven. Prior to last year, the host had won four in a row in this rivalry (3-1 ATS). Additionally, the underdog has gotten the money in nine of the last 10 lined contests, with five outright upsets.
Kansas State’s positive ATS trends of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 7-2-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 on the road are offset by pointspread dips of 7-19-3 in the Big 12, 2-7 after a SU defeat and 5-16-1 after a non-cover. Baylor is on ATS runs of 9-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 8-1 against winning teams and 6-2 versus conference foes.
The over is on streaks of 5-1 for Kansas State on the road, 6-1 for Kansas State after a SU loss, 5-1 for Baylor overall, 4-0 for Baylor in league play, 4-0 for Baylor after a SU win and 13-5 for Baylor when playing on Tuesday. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools in Waco went over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(1) Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) at South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS)
The last remaining undefeated team in the nation puts its unblemished record and No. 1 ranking on the line, as Kentucky treks to The Colonial Center for an SEC showdown against the Gamecocks.
The Wildcats ascended to the No. 1 spot in the polls in emphatic fashion, destroying Arkansas 101-70 as a 16½-point home favorite on Saturday. Darius Miller (18 points, five rebounds, four assists) and freshman sensation John Wall (16 points, seven assists) led four Kentucky players in double figures in scoring, and 12 of the 13 players who logged minutes got into the scoring column. Coach John Calipari’s crew has scored more than 70 points in 10 consecutive games and is averaging 84.5 ppg in its four SEC wins (2-2 ATS).
Kentucky is 6-0 in road/neutral-site games this season (4-2 ATS), including 2-0 (1-1 ATS) in conference play. The Wildcats average 83.7 ppg on the highway (52 percent shooting) while allowing 72.3 ppg (42 percent).
South Carolina suffered its third straight conference loss on Saturday, and it occurred in brutal buzzer-beating fashion, as Florida hit a bucket as time expired to steal a 58-56 win. On the bright side, the Gamecocks cashed as a six-point road underdog, ending an 0-3 ATS drought. South Carolina has won eight of its 10 home games (4-3 ATS in lined action), generating 81.4 ppg (46 percent shooting) while surrendering 67 ppg (41.4 percent). However, its most recent home contest was an 89-79 conference loss to Vanderbilt as a one-point favorite.
The Gamecocks took down Kentucky twice last year, winning 78-77 as a 9½-point road underdog and 77-59 in a pick-em contest at home. Prior to that, the Wildcats had won four in a row (3-1 ATS) in this series. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups, and the ‘dog has gotten the cash in eight of the past 10 meetings.
Kentucky has covered in four of its last five road games and four straight Tuesday contests, but it is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 conference games and 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 2-5 overall, 4-9-1 in SEC play, 2-5 against teams with a winning record and 0-5 after a spread-cover.
The under is on runs of 7-3 for the Wildcats on the road, 15-5-1 for South Carolina overall, 9-2-1 for South Carolina at home, 6-1-1 for South Carolina in league play and 7-1 for South Carolina after a SU defeat. Conversely, Kentucky is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall and 13-3 against winning teams, the over is 15-3 in the ‘Cocks’ last 18 against winning teams, and 16 of the last 18 regular-season meetings in this rivalry – including seven of the last nine in South Carolina – have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and OVER
NBA
Charlotte (21-22, 25-18 ATS) at Phoenix (26-20, 23-23 ATS)
The Bobcats, in the midst of a six-game Western Conference road trip, face their second fast-paced opponent in as many nights as they visit US Airways Arena for a battle with the Suns.
Charlotte’s long journey began with Monday’s 104-93 loss at Denver as a 5½-point underdog. The Bobcats have followed up a six-game winning streak (all at home) with three straight losses, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five. Larry Brown’s team has struggled all season on the road, losing 17 of 20 on the highway (11-9 ATS).
The Suns return home from last night’s 124-115 loss at Utah as a seven-point underdog. Phoenix has been extremely inconsistent over the past two months, going 12-17 SU and ATS since Dec. 1, but it is 11-5 at home during this stretch (8-8 ATS). Most recently, the Suns have dropped seven of their last 10 (2-8 ATS).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this series (3-0-1 ATS), including Charlotte’s 125-99 blowout victory as a three-point home favorite back on Jan. 16. The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and Phoenix is 9-2 (6-4-1 ATS) in the 11 all-time meetings, winning all five clashes in the desert (2-2-1 ATS).
Charlotte is on ATS runs of 6-1 against the Pacific Division, 4-1 on Tuesday, 16-5 when playing on back-to-back nights and 9-4 as an underdog of five to 10½ points. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six on Tuesday, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-5 as a favorite, 0-4 when laying five to 10½ points (all at home), 2-5 against the Eastern Conference and 2-6 when playing on consecutive nights.
The Bobcats are riding “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 8-3 against the Western Conference, 21-6 on the road against opponents with a winning home record, 5-2 when going on back-to-back nights and10-3 as an underdog of five to 10½ points. Conversely, the high-scoring Suns are on “under” stretches of 5-0 at home, 5-1 on Tuesday, 13-3 against the Southeast Division and 12-3-1 against Eastern Conference foes. However, Phoenix has hurdled the total in 12 of its last 17 when going on no rest.
Finally, four of the five all-time Bobcats-Suns clashes at US Airways Center have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHARLOTTE and OVER
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Dallas
The Bucks are coming off a 127-94 win over Minnesota and look to build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. Milwaukee is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+7 1/2)
Game 501-502: LA Lakers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.194; Washington 115.148
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 199
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+8); Over
Game 503-504: Minnesota at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 108.338; New York 118.764
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: Milwaukee at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 118.465; Dallas 118.829
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+7 1/2); Over
Game 507-508: Charlotte at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 119.961; Phoenix 121.088
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Golden State at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 116.005; Sacramento 114.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Kentucky at South Carolina
The Wildcats look to take advantage of a South Carolina team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home underdog of 1 to 6 1/2 points. Kentucky is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-6 1/2)
Game 511-512: Michigan State at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 74.806; Michigan 69.298
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 6
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-4)
Game 513-514: Miami (FL) at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 66.717; Maryland 71.233
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+7 1/2)
Game 515-516: Kent State at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 62.341; Toledo 41.932
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-13 1/2)
Game 517-518: Miami (OH) at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 56.185; Ball State 48.459
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-2 1/2)
Game 519-520: Clemson at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 70.422; Boston College 66.505
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 4
Vegas Line: Clemson by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-2 1/2)
Game 521-522: Rhode Island at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 63.485; Dayton 69.544
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 6
Vegas Line: Dayton by 5
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-5)
Game 523-524: Kansas State at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 71.788; Baylor 74.831
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 3
Vegas Line: Baylor by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-2 1/2)
Game 525-526: Tulsa at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 65.395; UAB 66.445
Dunkel Line: UAB by 1
Vegas Line: UAB by 4
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+4)
Game 527-528: West Virginia at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.978; DePaul 53.287
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-15 1/2)
Game 529-530: Rutgers at Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 54.513; Marquette 72.790
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Marquette by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-17 1/2)
Game 531-532: North Carolina at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 70.812; North Carolina State 68.695
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 1
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-1)
Game 533-534: Kentucky at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 75.225; South Carolina 66.115
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 9
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-6 1/2)
Game 535-536: Northwestern at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 63.863; Minnesota 75.776
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2)
Game 537-538: Air Force at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 48.981; UNLV 71.607
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 19
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-19)
Game 539-540: North Dakota State at UMKC
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 50.655; UMKC 49.214
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
New Jersey at Ottawa
The Devils look to build on their 9-0 record in their last 9 meetings between the two teams. New Jersey is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105)
Game 51-52: Anaheim at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.109; Atlanta 12.306
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under
Game 53-54: Los Angeles at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.853; Toronto 12.537
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under
Game 55-56: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.793; Detroit 12.377
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Under
Game 57-58: Nashville at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.745; Columbus 10.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-115); Under
Game 59-60: Washington at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.734; NY Islanders 13.074
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+145); Over
Game 61-62: Montreal at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.712; Florida 13.661
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Under
Game 63-64: New Jersey at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 13.333; Ottawa 12.505
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105); Under
Game 65-66: Chicago at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.072; Edmonton 9.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-220); Over
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Lakers at WASHINGTON +8
I didn't fare too well taking the Rockets to cover at home Monday night against Atlanta with my complimentary selection, as my record fell to 44-30-3 over the past 77 days. But I've got an NBA play today that is going to get much better results!
The Lakers are in a bit of a funk right now, going 5-5 in their last 10 games overall and 2-6 in their last eight road games. The Wizards have lost three straight, but are on the last game of a six-game homestand, so they're going to give their best effort tonight before hitting the road.
Los Angeles is going to be playing Game 3 of a season-long eight-game road trip, so I don't expect it to blow out Washington tonight, especially with Kobe Bryant averaging 20.5 points on 38.1 percent shooting over his last eight games as he plays through a broken finger and a sore lower back.
The world champions bring out the best from all opposing teams, so I believe the Wizards will give the Lakers a tough time tonight.
The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams, and Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. I'm not necessarily saying Washington is going to win this game, but I think it will stick close to the Lakers. Take the Wizards to cover the points.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Bobby Maxwell
Charlotte +5' at PHOENIX
Easy FREE winner on Monday as Syracuse clobbered Georgetown to improve my comp record to 59-24, including 36-10 with my last 46 selections. Tonight I have another NBA freebie for you as I grab the points with the Bobcats as they travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns.
Both of these teams are coming off bad losses on Monday night, with the Bobcats losing in Denver and the Suns falling in Utah. Both teams have to travel to the desert for this one so there is no advantage as far as rest goes.
Charlotte had a six-game winning streak snapped on Friday and now they have lost three straight, losing in Atlanta, at home to Orlando and then at Denver on Monday. Meanwhile, Phoenix has dropped seven of 10 overall and they are giving up crazy amounts of points lately.
I’m expecting the Bobcats to thrive in this situation as the Suns don’t play defense and Charlotte’s young guns should be able to get up and down the court and light up the scoreboard. In fact, these two teams squared off in Charlotte on Jan. 16 with the Bobcats crushing Phoenix 125-99 as a three-point favorite.
Charlotte has won two of the last three series clashes and they are on ATS streaks of 6-1 against Pacific Division teams and they’ve cashed in 16 of their last 21 games on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix is on ATS slides of 1-5 as a favorite, 1-4 at home, 2-6 on the second night of a back-to-back and 2-5 against the Eastern Conference.
Look for guys like Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson to light it up tonight. Grab the Bobcats and play the Bobcats.
5♦ CHARLOTTE
Marc Lawrence
North Carolina at N.C. State
Prediction: N.C. State
After winning national titles in 2005 and 2009 – and starting this season ranked No. 4 in the nation – the Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games and at 12-7 appear to be tumbling toward their worst effort since the disastrous Matt Doherty era. “This is a different ballgame for me,” said HC Roy Williams whose team was recently shocked by the College of Charleston, embarrassed by 19 points at Clemson and beaten at home by Georgia Tech after falling behind by 20 points in the first half. Adding insult to injury, Wake Forest blew into the Smith Center Wednesday night and stomped the Heels by 13 points – wrapping up UNC’s first 3-game losing streak ever under Williams. Dogged by poor defense and numerous mental mistakes, Carolina consistently finds a way to play to the level of the competition: 5-2 ATS versus .825 or greater opposition this season but a lowly 1-8 ATS versus less than .825 foes. UNC is also 0-5 ATS this season against foes off a loss. The Heels have tormented their archrivals from Raleigh under Williams, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings, so you know NC State will be primed for some big-time payback here. The Pack have been downright nasty as dogs this season taking a 6-0-1 ATS bite out of their prey, the last a stunning 88-74 smackdown of mighty Duke. Despite all the grumbling from Wolfpack boosters over HC Sidney Lowe’s overall lack of success, the former State star has compiled a decent 42-20 SU mark at home. Look for more of the same here this evening.
BIG AL
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
To say New York will have a "reason to play" tonight is a vast understatement. In its last game, Mike D'Antoni's men were destroyed by Dallas, 128-78. That 50-point loss was the worst-ever home defeat suffered by the Knicks, and also their 2nd largest defeat in their storied franchise's history. But NBA teams tend to rebound off 40-point (or worse) losses, as there's nothing like getting your butt kicked to motivate an overpaid NBA athlete. And since 1990, NBA teams are 25-9 ATS off a 40-point loss, provided they are NOT an underdog of +2 or more points (in other words, they're playing a team with which they can compete). The Timberwolves, of course, have their own problems -- they're 3-19 on the road, and have not won away from the Target Center since December 23rd vs. the Nets. Look for New York to take out its frustrations tonight on the T-Wolves.
Carlo Campanella
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas returns home following a 5-game road trip to host Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Milwaukee is 18-24 on the season, but a horrible 5-17 on the road, including 2-8 during their last 8 road trips. Dallas won the last meeting back in November, 115-113, in Milwaukee. Now the home court advantage is reversed and we find Milwaukee at 7-18 ATS on the road playing with same season revenge.
Play on: Dallas
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kent State at Toledo
Toledo is atrocious. They are 3-16 on the year and have lost nine straight, seven of them by double-digits. A 56.8 PPG scoring average tends to do that to you. They have been an underdog 41 times the last two seasons and only covered 13 of those games. Kent State is off back to back double-digit wins and is 62-37 ATS when off one win by 10 or more and 18-7 ATS off two straight, if both came against MAC opponents. Both did.
Play on: Kent State
Jeff Hochman
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Chicago Blackhawks -1.5
The Blackhawks out-shot Vancouver by almost double but still lost 5-1 the other night. This team is pissed, loaded with speed/skill, and should skate right past Edmonton on most shifts. Also, the Blackhawks are 12-4 after a loss so lay 1.5 goals for the plus payout.
Hollywood Sports
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers (33-11) have lost two of three games on their current road trip after dropping a tough 106-105 game to Toronto on Sunday. The officials played a big part in this game as Los Angeles only shot from the free throw line nine times while the Raptors enjoyed 26 attempts at the charity stripe. We don't expect similar treatment to the Lakers against a Wizards team reeling from the Gilbert Arenas gun scandal. Washington (14-29) begin to appear as if they are ready to go into the tank and play for lottery balls. The Wizards have lost three games in a row after letting the Clippers club them by a 92-78 score on Sunday. Washington has not bounced back from disappointing efforts as of late as they have failed to cover the spread in thirteen of their last seventeen games coming off a double-digit loss of at least ten points. The Wizards are just 8-14 on their home court overall as well as just 8-14 ATS. The Lakers have covered four of their last five games coming off a loss while also covering four of their last five road games against teams with a losing record at home. If the biggest concern in evaluating games involving the Wizards is assessing the relative motivation of their opponent, tonight presents a nice opportunity as the Lakers should certainly be focused to earn a win on the road. Lay the points with the Lakers.
Jim Feist
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +7½
Milwaukee is on a 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS run, playing competitive basketball. They come off a 127-94 victory over the Timberwolves on Saturday night. Milwaukee rookie Brandon Jennings had 18 points and a career-high 13 assists with only one turnover. A veteran Dallas team is home after a grueling 5-game road trip, and has played 10 of the last 14 on the road. They are also on a 3-8 ATS run and the Bucks have enough young legs on offense to run right at the veteran Mavs. Play the Bucks.
EZWINNERS
Miami-Ohio Redhawks -2.5
The The Redhawks are 0-9 away from home this season, but this is a series that they have dominated for the last six years. Miami-Ohio has won nine straight meetings between these two teams and they are 8-1 against the spread in those games. Miami might only be 6-12 on the season, they are battle tested. The Redhawks played nine of their first 13 games on the road and went just 3-10 in that stretch, but they faced the likes of Kentucky, Cincinnati, Xavier and Colorado. Miami head coach Charlie Coles said "This kind of schedule will make us stronger and more competitive, especially in league games." and I expect to see that payoff in this game. Ball State is only 8-9 this season and has not played anything close to the schedule that Miami has played. Bad shooting performances have dominated the Ball State storyline this year and I don't expect that to change in this game.
Terron Chapman
North Carolina vs. NC State
Play: NC State +2
After beginning the season ranked in the top 5, the North Carolina Tar Heels have dropped out of the top 25 following three straight losses. It’s the Tar Heels firs three-game losing streak under coach Roy Williams since he arrived on Tobacco Road. And things don’t look to get any easier Tuesday evening as the Heels travel down the road to the RBC Center for a meeting with a hungry North Carolina St Wolfpack team.
Coming into the season, questions surrounded who would take over the backcourt duties for the Heels following the departure of Ty Lawson and company. The transition has not been as smooth as some would’ve liked, especially in the ACC, where in four conference games thus far, opposing point guards are averaging 24 ppg. The Heels problems are only magnified on the road where they lack a go to guy in hostile environments. To compound problems for the Heels is it looks as if they’ll be without two big men Tuesday evening when they hit the floor of the RBC Center. Tyler Zeller remains out until next month with a foot injury and Ed Davis is listed as doubtful for Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury.
Tuesday’s meeting will mark the 216th meeting between these two schools. UNC has won the last six meetings between the teams, and Coach Lowe is 1-6 in his three seasons against the Tar Heels. NC State is 3-7 against UNC in the RBC Center, last winning in 2007 over the No. 3 ranked Tar Heels, 83-79. The Pack also won home contests in 2002 and 2003, the first time NC State won back-to-back years at home since 1995 and 1996. The Wolfpack will be eager to snap their six-game losing streak to the Heels and may just be catching them at the right time. Look for an inspired performance from the home team to be the difference as the Heels continue to struggle away from Chapel Hill. Play on the NC St Wolfpack for 1 unit.
LT Profits
Charlotte Bobcats @ Phoenix Suns
We took a chance on a Phoenix Suns Under last night with the reasoning being that their games have inflated totals, and we got burned in Utah. Undaunted, we are coming right back with another Phoenix Under tonight vs. a much more plodding Charlotte Bobcats team.
After all, the Under is still 24-20-2 in all Suns games due to inflated totals, and they do not go Over as often vs. the slower teams in the Eastern Conference. In fact, the Under is 7-2-1 the last 10 times that Phoenix has faced a Southeast Division team, which is where Charlotte resides. The Over last night snapped a three-game Under streak for the Suns.
As for the Bobcats, they still lead the NBA in defense allowing 93.1 points per game, which in itself is enough of a reason to get interested in the Under with a total posted this high. Granted, that defensive average rises to 96.0 points on the road, but Charlotte also struggles offensively away from home, averaging a Nets-like 89.5 points on 44.7 percent shooting.
Sure, the Over is still 12-8 in Charlotte road games despite that 185.5-point per game combined average, but that is due to their games having very low totals because their pattern of low scoring road games is fairly well known. However, that is not the case here. In fact, there has not been more than 210 points scored in any Charlotte road game this season! They did have a game with exactly 210 points at Toronto, but only one other Bobcats road game has exceeded 200 points.
That is as good a reason as any to play the Under at 210 here, as we do expect the excellent Charlotte defense to at least slow the Suns down somewhat.
Pick: Bobcats/Suns Under 210
Matt Fargo
West Virginia @ DePaul
PICK: DePaul +15.5
This is a huge number for any team to be laying in the Big East on the road no matter who the competition may be. Saturday was a huge win for West Virginia. Trailing by 12 points at halftime against Ohio St., the Mountaineers rallied to pull off the six-point win and give them a win over a quality opponent. That was just the third victory against a team ranked in the top 50, Mississippi and Texas A&M being the others, so it definitely presents a letdown situation. West Virginia is 3-2 in true road games this season with one of those wins coming by just two points and another coming on overtime. Tonight is not a game that the Mountaineers are going to be stoked about. DePaul is no doubt one of the worst team in the Big East Conference but this team has improve quite a bit and it is not the same team from last season that went 9-24 overall including a 0-18 record in the Big East a season ago. The Blue Demons snapped a 24-game Big East slide in their last home game, a come-from-behind win over Marquette that came on a last second shot. That game improved the overall confidence of this team and it showed last time out. Despite a 10-point loss at Notre Dame, the Blue Demons played very well as they outshot the Irish while committing only five turnovers. The difference was that Notre Dame outscored DePaul 28-5 from the free throw line and no team can overcome a deficit like that. In the last home game against the Golden Eagles, DePaul was getting 13 points in that game and it definitely showed that it can play well at home against good competition. The Blue Demons are 6-3 at home on the season and this is no doubt the most confident it has been since a 5-1 start to the season that included a win over Northern Iowa and a loss to Tennessee by just four points. It is remarkable sometimes what a new coach can do to the attitude and determination of the players even though former coach Jerry Wainwright is one of the nicest guys in basketball. DePaul is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 13 or more points while West Virginia is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 3* DePaul Blue Demons