Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Michigan Wolverines +4
It's going to be extremely difficult for the Spartans to cover this number after such an emotionally and physically draining come from behind road win over Minnesota Saturday. Meanwhile, Michigan will be extremely motivated to take on its rival at home tonight after back-to-back road defeats. I expect a very strong performance from Manny Harris tonight as serving a suspension should light a fire under him. Michigan is 8-2 at home this season and it has been an extremely profitable underdog. In fact, the Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for the Wolverines to keep this one within the number tonight.
John Ryan
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina +7
3* graded play on South Carolina as they host number one ranked Kentucky in a big SEC showdown. Based on our research and proprietary sports handicapping simulator this game will be far closer than the 7 point line would otherwise indicate. The bullseye is now on Kentucky and SC is the type of team that has the potential to pull off the upset. The home fans will be a huge factor supporting that upset bid. SC is off BB losses to conference rivals, BUT they are 8-1 ATS next game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1997. Play on a home team and is a solid offensive team scoring 74-78 PPG facing a good defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG and after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games. SC is averaging 74.8 PPG overall for the season and are an even better 81.4 PPG in home games. Kentucky is allowing 65.6 PPG and confirms the system mentioned above. We also like taking a 1.5 * additional play on the money line. Take SC.
LARRY NESS
North Carolina @ North Carolina State
PICK: North Carolina State +1
North Carolina is the defending national champs but the loss of four-year star Hansbrough plus the perimeter trio of Lawson, Ellington and Green (combined averages of 45.5 PPG, 12.6 RPG and 12.0 APG) has been too much. Stepping up this year have been 6-10 sophomore Davis (14.7-9.8) and 6-9 senior Thompson (14.8-6.8) but after missing North Carolina's last game with Wake (knee), Davis is listed as doubtful again here. What's more, Tyler Zeller, who has contributed 9.6 PPG off the bench, will likely be out for the next four weeks with an injured foot. The Tar Hells have lost three straight games (four of five) and find themselves unranked at 12-7 for the first time since January 2006. NC State lost its top-three scorers off last year's team as well, in Costner, McCauley and Fells (37 PPG, combined). Costner and McCauley combined to averaged almost 14 RPG. Smith (17.3-8.6), a 6-8 junior, has been the team's best player with the 6-9 Horner (12.5-4.1) and guard Gonzalez (10.3-4.0-4.4) joining him in double figures. The Wolfpack beat Duke 88-74 last Wednesday here in Raleigh and should be poised to end a six-game series losing streak against a suddenly very beatable Tar Heel squad. Take the home team.
Sean Higgs
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -6.5
New York off a 50 point beatdown at the hands of Dallas, at home in MSG. There will be some pride in NY tonight and I expect a convincing win. T-wolves the second worse team in the league ahead of the Nots, um Nets. In fact, Minny is 0-7 on the road since beating the Nets. That being said, even with the Knicks off a 50 point loss, Minny is off a 33 point road loss to the Bucks. Knicks are the better ball club, should get it done on their home court.
Spartan
CHL +5.5 vs PHO
Both these teams had tough road losses Monday evening and now get right back after it in Phoenix. Larry Browns Bobcats had won an impressive six straight games but now have faltered some dropping three in a row. Both of these teams have struggled with consistency all season. This is a long six game road trip that Charlotte has embarked on and I look for a huge effort tonight and a very close game. The Bobcats are a very impressive 14-4 against the number away when playing back to back. I think 5.5 points is a number they can cover for us here guys. Take Charlotte plus the points as your free release.
GoodFella
MIL +7 vs DAL
Dallas is coming off a 50 (yes FIFTY) point blowout win AT New York as 1.5 pt favs on Sunday. That game concluded their 5 game, 8 day East Coast roadie. Tonight is the Mavs 1st game back home- since the East Coast roadie--and this is always a tough spot for teams. Milwaukee is coming off a 33 pt HOME blowout win over the Timberwolves on Saturday as 8 pt favs--& the Bucks have won 2 of their L/3 games SU. They also are (5-1 ATS L/6) games coming into tonight. Dallas is (1-4 ATS L/5) Home games following a Road Trip of 7 days or more--& Dallas is (4-17 ATS L/21) games as a Home favorite. Milwaukee is (8-1 ATS L/9 games following a SU win of 10 pts or more. I just see some real solid value here with the Bucks getting 7 pts in this spot. Dallas is in a spot tonight- that I like to fade--1st game back at home, after a lengthy roadie on the other side of the country. Grab the points with the Bucks tonight guys.
Ron Raymond
OTT (-110) vs NJD
Not sure why, but the way the Sens have been playing of late, don't be surprise if they chase Brodeur tonight. When OTTAWA Played as home team as a Favorite - During Last 3 Years - Won Last Game by 1 Goals or Less; the Sens are 16-8 SU in this spot.
King Creole
Northwestern +12.5 vs Minnesota
There's no 'gimmees' in BIG 10 play this season, and tonight's winner is very similar to the play that our Underdog service (Dawg Pound Hotline) put out on Thursday night. In that game, Penn State had no business laying double digits to the Indiana Hoosiers. And the underdog Hoosiers came away with an OUTRIGHT road dog win. The situations in tonight's game are just as good as that one. According to our CBB Power Ratings, the host Golden Gophers should be a favorite of no more than -5 to -6 points.
Northwestern is already a very profitable 5-1 ATS in all of their lined road games this season. They're playing with the confidence of a SU win (over Illinois) in their last game, They're playing an unsure and unconfident DD favorite host that's shit the bed in their last three games. Minnesota was a favorite in each of their last two games... and lost both in OUTRIGHT fashion. If you're looking for MOTIVATION from these Wildcats, you GOT it! They play with DOUBLE-Revenge from last season... including a loss in the Big 10 Tourney.
9-1 ATS this season: All Conference road underdogs of 7 > points playing off a SU win (N'WESTERN)... versus any opponent off BB SU losses (Minn).
1-5 ATS this season: All Conference team playing off BB FAVORITE losses (Minn)... versus any opponent playing with REVENGE off a SU win (N'WESTERN).
Big Dogs in the BIG 10 Conference have been money in the bank as of late. 12-2 ATS last 3 weeks: All BIG 10 Conference Underdogs of 7 > points (N'WESTERN).
Let's run a Big 10 query going all the way back to the 2000 season.5-0 ATS s'2000: All BIG 10 DOUBLE-DIGIT Underdogs playing off a SU win (N'WESTERN)... versus any fellow conference opponent playing off BB SU losses, with the last loss as a favorite (Minn).
Minnesota: A very B-A-D team when laying big points!
The Golden Gophers are 1-13-1 ATS in the last 13 seasons as DOUBLE-DIGIT favorites versus any 'lined' opponent off a SU win. And that includes a PERFECT 0-6 ATS vs fellow Big 10 Conference opponents.
Northwestern: A very G-O-O-D team when catching big points!
The Wildcats are 12-4 ATS as DOUBLE-DIGIT Conference Underdogs vs any opponent off a SU loss. As far as 'tighteners' go, we note that the numbers improve to 6-1 ATS when the Cats are off a SU win.... or 4-0 ATS if their opponent lost as a FAVORITE in their last game....
Lenny Del Genio
Marquette -17.5 vs Rutgers
Rutgers is really bad. They currently stand at 0-7 SU and ATS in Big East play thus far with the average loss coming by 19.5 points per game. Much of this has to do with HC Fred Hill trying to implement a more up-tempo style and it clearly has not worked. Defensively, they are allowing 81.4 PPG on the road. Marquette is off back to back road losses, one to DePaul and the other to Syracuse, meaning they'll be motivated to blow someone out. The Syracuse loss in forgiveable, but DePaul certainly was not. The Eagles average margin of victory here at home is over 22 PPG. Rutgers isn't doing much with the points this season, going 1-8 ATS as an underdog. Due to injuries, Marquette has some depth issues, but all that means is that the Scarlet Knights will have to face their starters for majority of the game. Take Marquette.
Triple Threat Sports
NY Knicks (-) over Minnesota
Knicks embarrassed after 50 point drubbing in last game, the worst loss in the history of Madison Square Garden to the Knicks. They should come in angry and focused, and that should spell trouble for the Wolves, who lack the athleticism and depth needed to keep up with D'Antoni's team. Lay the points here.
Wunderdog
New Jersey at Ottawa
Pick: OVER 5 -130
The Devils have been consistently good on the road, except for their last road trip, but are back in charge winning the opener on this three-game trip. The Senators have been a hot team winning their last six, scoring 3.3 goals per game in the process. This is a team that is 4-1-1 in their last six to the OVER off two days rest. And with a hot offense right now, they will be making a contribution on the offensive end to push this one OVER. The Devils have managed to push across 3 or more 56% of the time on the road this season, putting this low total in jeopardy. I will play this one to go OVER the total.
Stan Lisowski
CHARLOTTE
The Bobcats have covered 7 of 8 playing on the road in back-to-back sets. Phoenix is missing Barbosa’s scoring and more importantly, his energy. Charlotte is a 60% winner as an underdog, while the Suns have lost 5 of 7 to the spread playing consecutive nights this year.