Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 28

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

West Virginia at Baylor
The Bears look to snap a four-game losing streak against a West Virginia team that is coming off an 81-75 loss at Oklahoma State and is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU defeat. Baylor is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-5 1/2)

Game 515-516: Missouri at Arkansas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 65.448; Arkansas 68.933
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 3 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 6; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+6); Over

Game 517-518: West Virginia at Baylor (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 61.634; Baylor 71.234
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 9 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Baylor by 5 1/2; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-5 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: Michigan State at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 74.904; Iowa 78.213
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 3 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Iowa by 6; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+6); Over

Game 521-522: SMU at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 66.134; South Florida 57.253
Dunkel Line: SMU by 9
Vegas Line: SMU by 7
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-7)

Game 523-524: Loyola-Chicago at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 54.163; Wichita State 71.668
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 20; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+20)

Game 525-526: Texas Tech at Kansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 61.154; Kansas State 73.509
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 12 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 9; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-9); Under

Game 527-528: Virginia at Notre Dame (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 71.736; Notre Dame 64.385
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 7 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Virginia by 3; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-3); Under

Game 529-530: St. John's at Creighton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 64.021; Creighton 74.533
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+12 1/2)

Game 531-532: Kentucky at LSU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 73.470; LSU 63.266
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 10; 136
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-3); Under

Game 533-534: New Mexico at Utah State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 59.230; Utah State 64.381
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5
Vegas Line: Utah State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-2)

Game 535-536: Cleveland State at Eastern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 56.479; Eastern Illinois 49.530
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+9)

DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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MICHIGAN ST AT IOWAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: IOWA -5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There’s not much doubt about the big game on the Tuesday night college slate. It’s a beauty of a Big 10 battle as Michigan State hits he road to take on Iowa.
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It’s not hard to make a case for either side here, but I’m going to go the Iowa route. First off, the Hawkeyes are an absolute monster at home, where they’re on a remarkable 37-14 ATS roll. That’s pretty amazing, considering this is a fairly public team, so there’s seldom a bargain to be had with them. It’s also not just at home where Iowa is a covering machine. If you’ve just blind bet this team in every game the last couple of season, you’re up a bundle.
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I don’t think this is such a good spot for Michigan State. It’s a pretty short turnaround off the rivalry loss to Michigan. I also think it’s fairly clear that the injuries are starting to take a toll on the Spartans. Payne is still out with the bad foot, and the loss of Dawson is substantial. He’s a dynamo on the offensive glass in particular. The Michigan State depth chart is really getting taxed and this take more of a toll with so many tough games having to be played. Laying points to Tom Izzo is not something I want to make a habit of. He’s a great coach and I have little doubt he’s going to have the Spartans ready to play. But being shorthanded against one of the deepest entries in the country is going to be a daunting task, and the home court advantage at Carver-Hawkeye is genuinely huge.
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I stopped being surprised by anything Michigan State does long ago. But under the conditions tonight, I have to side with Iowa to come out on top. I’ll spot the points with the Hawkeyes.

Sean Murphy
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Washington vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
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The Warriors are coming off a galvanizing win over the Blazers last time out, snapping a two-game skid in the process.
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Golden State still knows it has plenty of work to do, having gone 2-4 SU over its last six games.
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This is the second game of a three-game homestand for the Warriors, with a tough matchup against the Clippers on deck. Needless to say, they'll want to keep building momentum here and give themselves the opportunity to close out a perfect homestand on Thursday night.
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The Wizards opened their current road trip with a big win in Phoenix, but couldn't follow it up, falling by three points in Utah last time out.
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Washington hasn't been bad on the road this season, going 11-11 SU, but only two of those wins have come against Western Conference opponents. I see this as a tough spot to break through, especially given the Wiz have gone winless in their last six games against the Warriors, including back-to-back losses by 10 and nine points here in Oakland.
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The Warriors are just 20-23-2 ATS overall this season, but I do see that record turning around sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, the Wizards sit one game over .500 ATS, but haven't been anything special lately, going 1-5 ATS over their last six games. I'll lay the points here.

Bryan Power
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West Virginia vs. Baylor
Pick: West Virginia
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A case can be made that the Big 12 is the best conference in America right now, though I think it to be quite likely that Kansas once again finds itself on the top of the heap at the end of the regular season. That being said, I feel there's some good value w/ a dog on Tuesday's Big 12 slate....
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Just to illustrate the strength of this conference, Baylor was once 12-1, but after six league games, they are now just 13-6 overall. They enter tonight on a four-game losing streak (0-3-1 ATS) and their only Big 12 victory came against TCU. Tonight, they host upset-minded West Virginia, who will also be playing w/ revenge for a pair of losses last year, their first in the conference. The Mountaineers haven't been playing particularly well either of late w/ losses in four of their last five. But in games featuring two struggling teams, taking the points seems like the prudent move.
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WVU was able to stick w/ Oklahoma State over the weekend, easily covering as 13.5-point dogs. They won't be getting as many points here, but the opponent is not as strong either. Baylor has been a favorite in three of the four games during its losing streak, including Saturday vs. Texas as they fell here in Waco by double digits while laying five at the betting window. Three of their four losses during this same streak have also seen the Bears fall by double digits. Right now, this is simply not a team I'd want to be laying points with.

Jim Feist

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: New Orleans Pelicans +3

New Orleans is putting it together for coach Monty Williams, on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pelicans to a 100-92 victory over the Magic on Sunday. Anthony Davis was everywhere on the court, scoring 22 points, grabbing 19 boards and swatting 7 shots. The Pelicans' reserves outscored the Magic's reserves 42-8! New Orleans is on a 6-2 ATS run and the Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on one days rest. Cleveland winds up a 5-game home stand here but even that hasn't helped, on a 1-3 SU/ATS run. Cleveland is 23rd in the NBA in points scored, 19th in points allowed, on a 2-6 ATS run. The Cavs come off an embarrassing home loss as the Suns,blowing an 18-point halftime lead. The Cavaliers are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games playing on one days rest and when these teams meet the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Play the New Orleans Pelicans!

Brandon Shively

Kentucky vs. LSU
Play: LSU +3

We are getting some nice value tonight with LSU at home. The Tigers have talent at every position and I look for them to get an early lead in this game and never look back. Kentucky has traditionally owned this series, but this is a better LSU team this year and a Kentucky team that is overrated and is just not that good on the road.
I would like to compare Home/ Away stats with both teams and it is clear that LSU will control this game. I like the defense of LSU to win this game and the home crowd to play a factor as well.

FG % (Kentucky road)= 43.9 (LSU Home)= 43.3
Defensive FG% (Kentucky road)=44.6 (LSU home)= 36.3
Free throw % (Kentucky road)= 64.8 (LSU home)= 68.9
Assist: Turnover (Kentucky road)= 0.72 (LSU home)= 1.07
Steals (Kentucky road)= 5.7 (LSU home)=9.9
Blocks (Kentucky road) = 5.7 (LSU home)=7.3

Trends:
Kentucky is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games
Kentucky is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games following 3 or more consecutive home games
LSU is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU Loss.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Cavaliers -2½

We are getting a lot of value on the Cavaliers today as they face a Pelicans team that has won three of their last four games. The Pelicans are not a good team, and I think the oddsmakers have given them far too much credit in this road game against Cleveland. New Orleans is a poor defensive team. They have allowed 105.5 points per game on the road this year, so I expect to see the Cavaliers put up a big offensive number in this matchup.

The Cavaliers are a very good team at home. They have a 12-10 ATS record and 11-11 straight up record in home games this season, while the Pelicans come into this matchup with an 8-14 straight up record on the road and a 9-12 ATS record in those games. With home court advantage I don't see a scenario where the Cavaliers lose this game, and with such a small spread I expect to see Cleveland get in easy cover.

Art Aronson

Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -7½

It is not often Golden State has gone a streak where it has lost more games than it has won this season but with the proverbial monkey of its’ back thanks to the win over Portland I expect a confident win here over the Wizards. The Warriors are a profitable 4-2 ATS in home games where they are favoured between 6.5-9 points this season. The Wizards are coming off a loss at the Utah Jazz and has lost three of five overall. Golden State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington the last three seasons and it is arguable that this is the best defensive team that Golden State has fielded over that time. The Wizards are just 6-9 ATS and 5-11 SU in games versus teams with a winning record this season. The Warriors have two games left on this home stand and I expect they want to make hay starting with a beatable team in Washington. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Pelicans vs. Cavaliers
Play: Under 197

This game is our third best totals play tonight and has a system that has cashed 90% since 1995. We want to play the under for non division road dogs of 4 or less, like the Pelicans that have 1 day of rest and come in off a spread win as a home favorite of 5 or more and are now taking on a team like Cleveland that scored 90 or more and lost to the spread at home if they had 15 or less turnovers and the total tonight is 190 or higher. The system while having many parameters has done well cashing 905. The Cavs have played under in 12 of 13 at home if they scored 90 or less in their last game. In the series 2 of the last 3 here have stayed under and this one should play under tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Doug Upstone

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Houston Rockets -1½

On Tuesday, Play Against teams like San Antonio revenging a loss where the opposing team (Houston) scored 110 or more points and if this opponent is off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. In the past five years, teams like the Spurs are 10-40 against the spread in this situation.

Marc Lawrence

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Don't look now but as poorly as the Lakers have played on the scoreboard this season they are almost diametrically opposite on the ATS scorecard. Owners of a 16-29 SU mark this campaign, Los Angeles will bring a 24-19-2 ATS ledger into Tuesday night scrape with the Pacers. Better yet, La La is 9-3 ATS taking points at home this season, including 4-0 ATS when grabbing six or more. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home dog roles. And while they may not improve on their 20-4 SU mark at home in this series, the points are certainly very inviting. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Lakers.

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Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles LakersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles LakersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pacers are 0-3 ATS L3 on the current west coast trip. Furthermore they are 0-3 SU L3 as well. They have definitely hit the wall on this west coast trip and they have one last game out west before heading back home. Indiana will get the win they need against the depleted Lakers, but we like the fact that L.A. has covered 6 of 8 and are likely to play with energy in front of their home crowd after finishing a long 7 game road trip.

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Utah St. -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't love tonight's card...numbers all look right on....playing the odds on Utah State finding away not to drop back to back home games after the OT defeat vs. San Diego State on Saturday night. The students will be rocking the Spectrum again and that should help fuel the Aggies to the home win. Jared Shaw was awful in the Aztec loss and should hold his own tonight on the offensive end tonight. Stew Morrill's boy's could use Kyle Davis back in the paint tonight to help slow down Bairstow & Kirk of the Lobos. If Medelin and Butterfield shoot it well tonight the Aggies will win by the number....here's to all those things lining up in a Utah State win and cover!!

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San Antonio +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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A 'battle of Texas' in the NBA tonight as the San Antonio Spurs take on the Houston Rockets. Some have suggested that this is a 'revenge spot' for the Rockets' blowout win over the Spurs on Christmas Day but San Antonio doesn't seem to be motivated by this concept with a 3-10 ATS record in 'revenge spots'. I'll dismiss this notion completely but that leaves a more salient handicap--the Spurs are the better team. San Antonio has been playing good basketball lately winning 11 of 15 SU and have best road record in the NBA at 16-4. Spurs coming off a loss at Miami last time out and they haven't lost back to back games all season long. Houston has put some victories in the win column over the past few weeks but have covered only 4 of their last 15. The Rockets have won 8 of their last 11 but only one of those victories came against a team with a record over .500 (at Portland on 1/20). At this price the Spurs just need to win the game outright and they should be able to handle a Rockets' team that seems to be a cut below in terms of pedigree.