SPORTS WAGERS
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COLUMBUS -½ +138 over Ottawa
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Regulation only. The Senators have had one good run this entire year that lasted from December 23 until January 14 when they won seven out of nine games. Other than that, Ottawa has strung together back-to-back wins just two other times this season. That’s almost hard to believe but it’s true and it’s time we concede that there is more to this than meets the eye. Talented and hard-working in the past, this year’s edition is still talented but they are no longer a tough out. Senators games are filled with mistakes, laziness and a complete lack of effort, not to mention poor goaltending by Craig Anderson in more games than not. Perhaps this team has quit on their coach or perhaps it’s something that runs deeper. Whatever the case, the Senators have become a soft club that is as beatable as any team in the NHL. The Sens have one win in their past five games and that came against the then reeling Capitals. Rested and playing an exhausted Hurricanes club on Saturday afternoon, Ottawa fell behind 4-0 early in the second before being buried 6-3. The Senators are just not hungry enough.
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The Jackets are coming off back-to-back losses for only the second time since November 12 to 15, when they lost three straight, all in OT. Columbus lost at home to Buffalo on Saturday night for its first home loss in over a month. Indeed they will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but that’s not going to deter us from backing the hungrier team, especially after consecutive losses. The Jackets work hard, they play hard and they hate to lose. The same can’t be said for the Senators.
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New Jersey +197 over ST. LOUIS
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Regulation only. The Blue Notes are tough as shoe leather and they figure to seek redemption after being destroyed in New Jersey one week ago by a score of 7-1. However, the Blues return home from a four-game trip here and they continue to get average goaltending from both Jaroslav Halak (tonight’s starter) and Brian Elliott. Most recently, the Blues have been losing to quality teams (New Jersey, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Vancouver) while barely defeating average teams. Over their past 10 games, the Blue Notes have gone 6-4 with victories over Calgary, Edmonton, Phoenix, Detroit, New York Rangers and N.Y. Islanders. The game against the Rangers, St. Louis was outshot 35-25 and against the Islanders they scored with 20 seconds left to tie it before winning it OT. Mentally, a 7-1 loss could play on their minds a bit but more than that, the Devils are too good to be pass up a tag like this one.
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No question the Devils would have buried the Rangers had Martin Broduer not been in net. Up 3-1 late in the first period, Brodeur allowed a goal that Johnny Bower would have stopped and it cut the lead to 3-2 going into the first intermission. Three soft goals later and the life was taken out of the Devils, like it has been on many other occasions this season when Brodeur starts. Those soft goals deflate an entire team but the Devils are a resilient bunch that figures to bounce back in front of Cory Schneider. The Devils are healthy and they’re dangerous as hell. They’re an outstanding defensive club that allows fewer shots on net that any team in the entire league and if they outshoot the Blue Notes here, a very distinct possibility, their chances of winning are great because they have a significant edge in net. With Schneider in net, the Devils have picked up points in six straight and 10 out of a possible 12 points. Again, New Jersey is too tough to be offered a price like this one, as they have every bit a chance of winning here as do the Blue Notes. That’s true value.
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Los Angeles +104 over PHOENIX
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OT included. Can someone explain to us why Mike Smith was chosen to play for Canada in the upcoming Olympics? Here’s a guy that has a .908 save percentage this season and that’s one of the worst marks in the league for goaltenders who have played 20 games or more. Smith’s save percentage puts him in the same range as Martin Brodeur (.899), Cater Hutton (.906), Dave Poulin (.891), Devan Dubnyk (.891) and Ondrej Pavelec (.902). Smith has had one good year, back in 2011-12 when he went 38-18 for the Coyotes. His other eight seasons in the NHL have been about as average as any other goaltender in the game. Mike Smith is an adequate backup (even that’s a stretch) and the fact that he was chosen as Canada’s third goaltender is insane. Over his last 10 games, Smith has posted save percentages of .800, .885, .862, .889, .868, .857 and .893. Phoenix has three wins in their past 10 games and they return home from the dreaded trip through Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton. The fact that they are favored over the Kings is bordering on ludicrous.
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Despite defeating the Sharks in San Jose last night, L.A.’s stock is still low after the team lost five in a row prior to that and scored just eight goals in those five losses. After winning 1-0 last night, they have now scored nine goals in their past six games. We say bring it on. The Kings are on the verge of exploding offensively because they are loaded with snipers and they’re creating a slew of quality scoring chances every single game. That 1-0 victory last night was a flattering score to the Sharks, as L.A. carried the play the entire game. The Kings previous two losses to the Ducks were also misleading, as they outshot Anaheim by a combined 67-42. Defensively, Los Angeles is the cream of the crop. Against Anaheim twice and San Jose last night, they allowed 21, 21 and 23 shots on net respectively. L.A leads the NHL in GAA since the Christmas break and they also lead the league over that span in fewest scoring chances allowed. The Kings got a monkey off their back with a well-deserved win last night in San Jose. True Stanley Cup contenders, the Kings are the vastly superior team here that has a huge edge in net (whether it’s Jonathan Quick or Martin Jones) and a huge edge defensively as well. This is a bet that should not be missed.
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Nashville +134 over WINNIPEG
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Regulation only. Indeed the Jets are greatly improved since they fired Claude Noel but this team is still not good enough to be winning at this pace or to be trusted in this price range. Somehow the Jets managed to defeat Chicago on Sunday night after being outshot 22-3 halfway through the game. It was like a 30-minute power-play for the Blackhawks but backup goaltender Al Montoya stood on his head and the Jets rallied. After defeating Anaheim, Toronto and Chicago and winning six of seven since Paul Maurice took over, a Jets letdown is not only forthcoming, it’s inevitable. Winnipeg will play its fifth game in seven days here and it has Vancouver on deck Thursday before heading to Montreal for a rare game against the Canadiens. The Predators figure to take advantage of a tired team that has two big games on deck after playing four huge games in succession.
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Nashville has a great chance to win this game if they get adequate goaltending. Of course that’s a big if because they have not had consistent, adequate goaltending ever since they lost Pekka Rinne 12 games into the season. When they do get good goaltending, the Preds are capable of defeating anyone because they are beasts to play against. Nashville rolls out four solid lines that wear down the opposition. Its defense is among the most solid groups in the NHL. The Predators are one of those rare teams that are constantly outplaying and outshooting the opposition but that keeps losing because of poor goaltending. Because of its poor goaltending, the Predators are not playable as a favorite but as a pooch against a team that not only are they better than, but that also has shaky goaltending, the Predators are very playable and that applies here.
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Matt Fargo
Memphis vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
Portland is coming off a loss at Golden St. on Sunday which was its third straight loss on the road but the Blazers have won five straight games at home and going back they are 18-2 over their last 20 games at the Rose Garden. While they haven't been covering at a feverish pace, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The Blazers will be out for some triple revenge after losing the final three meetings against Memphis last season. Memphis is on a slight roll right now as it has won seven of its last eight games after taking its home and home series against Houston. The Grizzlies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games and they have covered six straight games against teams with a winning record. These solid streaks are giving us some great value in my opinion as Memphis is still just two games over .500 on the season and is currently 9.5 games behind Portland in the Western Conference. Portland is 23-4 against teams ranked outside the top ten in the league and coming off a road loss, we will see a full effort tonight which is aided by the fact that the Blazers do not play again until Saturday, February 1st.
Rickie Robbins
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Los Angeles Kings vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Los Angeles Kings +100
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The Kings play their second game in as many nights as they head to Phoenix to take on the Coyotes who have lost 7 of their last 10 contests.
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The Kings continue their road trip in Phoenix on Tuesday night as they battle their Pacific division rivals just a night after playing against the San Jose Sharks. LA has gone on a mini slump (four games heading into Monday’s encounter) that has dropped them out of the Pacific division title race as they now trail the Ducks by 19 points for the division lead and are just a single point up on the Canucks for the automatic playoff bid in the division. Despite their losing ways of late the Kings are built for a Stanley Cup title push and certainly won’t let a four game slide get them down especially at this juncture in this season where every game begins to matter more and more. Since the Kings played last night and Jonathan Quick got the nod we are likely to see Martin Jones in this one and while he started the season off with a very impressive mark he has come back down to Earth over the last few contests. Jones is likely to match up with Mike Smith of the Coyotes.
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Phoenix is a team that has played its way into the contender talk year in and year out over the last two or three seasons but that mystique seems to have escaped them this season as they sit in fifth place in the Pacific and are four points back of the Wild for the last playoff spot in the West. The Coyotes have weaseled their way into the playoffs behind a scrappy roster and strong goaltending and while that remains the game plan for this season they haven’t had as much success and are likely to be on the outside looking in when come April and postseason spots are being determined. However, they have played quite well at home this year and with the Kings playing in a back to back it gives them an opportunity to climb back into the picture but it’ll be a tough out regardless. With that being said the Kings are currently underdogs in this spot and getting value on them against anybody has me leaning in their direction and that doesn’t change here.
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Washington Capitals -140FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Caps had lost 7 straight before a big 5-0 win in Montreal on Saturday night. they are 23-21-8 on the season and 9-12-4 on the road. Buffalo lost 3-0 last night in Pittsburgh and have now lost 6 of their last 7 games. They've given up 26 goals over those 7 games (3.7 per game). The Sabrs are 14-30-7 on the season and 9-15-4 at home. Buffalo has actually won both of these teams two meetings this season - both in shootout. In the first meeting in Buffalo the Caps out shot the Sabres 50-17 losing 2-1, and int he second meeting it was a tighter game in Washington with the Sabres winning 2-1 again in a shootout. The good news for Washington is that Ryan Miller is expected to get a day off tonight, and they will most likely see Jhonas Enroth who is 1-10-4 on the year. Braden Holtby is the expected starter for Washington and he is coming off a shutout in Montreal on Saturday night. Note that the Sabres are 0-5 in their last 5 home games, 6-24 in their last 30 games on 0 days rest, and 5-13 in their last 18 in the fourth game of a 4 games in 6 nights situation which they are in tonight. Washington got a confidence boost with a big win in Montreal Saturday night and I look for them to bring that same energy to Buffalo tonight against a team they have lost twice to this season. I'm on the Caps laying the chalk.
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Chicago Blackhawks -½ -119FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blackhawks let us down the other night against the Jets, but they'll get another opportunity against an inferior opponent tonight. I should say, a much more inferior opponent. This game features one of the best against one of the worst. I would be quite surprised of the Blackhawks put up duds against the Jets and then the Flames. I expect a much better effort out of Chicago tonight. The Hawks are enduring their worst stretch of the season, dropping three straight games against the Wings, Wild, and Jets. I think the Flames are just what the Blackhawks ordered. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games, which has really been the story of the Flames season. Calgary has won the last two though, but it would be pretty unbelievable if they were to cap a three-game win streak off against a hungry Blackhawks team. The Flames have been miserable in all dimensions of the game all year long, but have been particularly bad at scoring goals, averaging only 2.21 goals per game. Compared to the Blackhawks, who are averaging 3.43 goals a game. I like them to get back on track tonight on the west coast, with a 4-1 or 3-1 win looking likely, I will play them to win in regulation time. Considering the struggles of the Blackhawks lately, I can't see them overlooking the Flames here.
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Cleveland State at Eastern IllinoisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Eastern IllinoisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Eastern Illinois will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-22 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play against a favorite (CLEVELAND ST) that is an average offensive team scoring between 67 and 74 PPG and is now facing a low paced offensive team scoring between 63 and 67 PPG and after 15or more games and after allowing 50 points or less. A multi-criteria system, but each one of those criteria's match this game nearly exactly. Moreover, Cleveland State has a history of struggling mightily against slow paced methodical type teams like Eastern Illinois. Cleveland State is a very weak 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Eastern Illinois.
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Tampa Bay at TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that five or fewer goals will be scored in this hockey match. There several game situations supporting a low scoring affair tonight. Toronto is just 11-3 UNDER (+8.1 Units) after losing their previous game in overtime over the last 3 seasons; 2-3 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-37 'UNDER" record good for 65.4% winners since 1996. Play 'under' with home teams against the total (TORONTO) that is a terrible defensive team allowing 3+ goals/game on the season with the current contest taking place in the second half of the season and after playing 2 straight games where 8 or more total goals were scored. Take the 'UNDER'
Rocketman
Orlando at Detroit
Play: Orlando +7.5
The Orlando Magic travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons on Tuesday night. Neither team is hitting on much this year as Orlando is 12-33 SU overall this year and Detroit is 17-27 SU on the season. Detroit is allowing 103.2 points per game overall this year and 104.5 points per game at home this season. Detroit is 1-4 SU last 5 games where they are allowing 106.6 points per game. Orlando is 4-1 ATS last 5 games after a SU loss. Orlando is 4-1 ATS last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Detroit is 1-10 ATS last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. Detroit is 1-7 ATS last 8 home games. Underdog is 14-6 ATS last 20 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Orlando tonight!
Dennis Macklin
Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Play: Virginia -3
It used to be impossible to go into the Joyce Center and get a win against Notre Dame no matter who you were. Not any more. The Irish have been decimated by injuries and this year they were average at best at full strength. The hosts are last in the ACC from beyond the arc and get to the foul line less than any other team in conference .... not a winning combination at any level. Virginia seemingly improves every time out. The Cavs are 6-1 in league (7-0 ATS) with their only loss at Duke. UVa plays excellent pressure defense and force turnovers on better than one in five opponent possessions. This number looks cheap not to mention the fact that ACC home dogs of less than four points are 1-7 this year the way we keep score.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic +7
The Detroit Pistons have no business being a 7-point home favorite against anyone with the way they are playing right now. I'll gladly take the points with the Orlando Magic here because of it.
The Pistons have lost 11 of their last 14 games overall. That includes losses to the Bucks and Pelicans in two of their last three games. The Bucks are the worst team in the league, and the Pelicans are missing two of their best players.
Orlando has been competitive of late, not once losing by more than 11 points in any of its last seven games. That includes home wins over the Lakers and Celtics, and narrow home losses to the Bulls (125-128) and Hawks (109-112).
The Magic are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pistons. That includes a 109-92 home victory in their first meeting of the season on December 27. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Detroit is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games overall. Bet the Magic Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Pistons -7
Orlando is 0-8 ATS in road games this month, losing them by 15.7 points on average. Look for Orlando's road struggles to continue against a Pistons team that will be hungry to end a four-game losing streak. Detroit likes to push the tempo, and that likely spells disaster for the Magic as they are just 6-15 ATS this season versus uptempo teams that average 83 shots per game or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 8.0 points. Bet Detroit.
Dave Price
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5
Portland will have a tough time covering this number against a team it has struggled against. For starters, the Trail Blazers will be the more fatigued team with this being their third game in four days. Memphis has had the last two days off. The Grizzlies have quietly won seven of eight and have done it with defense. They've held six of their last seven opponents to an average of 86.2 points. They've had success slowing down Portland as well, winning each of the last three meetings while holding the Trail Blazers to an average of 86.0 points. The Grizzlies are coming off an impressive road-home sweep of Houston, winning the second game by 18 points as a 1.5-point dog. That victory is significant because the Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS the last three seasons following an upset victory of 10 points or more. It is also worth noting that Portland is a soft 11-22 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, winning these games by just 1.9 points on average. Take the points.
AC Dinero
Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -7
We'll fade the Majic tonite, and most likely, several more nights before the season is over, as they are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Prrof of this is in a somewhat big line, as Detroit isn't very good either.
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Virginia at Notre DameFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Virginia -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I really like Virginia in this game vs Notre Dame. Virginia is playing well especially defensively where they are a tough matchup for any team in the country, they have won five straight meetings vs the Irish and are riding a three game winning streak the Irish have dropped two straight and five of their last six overall...the Irish dismissed their leading scorer due to academics and will find scoring very difficult in this game, the Irish are just 2-8-1 ATS on their home floor.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
SMU/ South Florida Under 129.5: The other day SMU play a game vs Houston that went over, even though it shouldn't have. Houston was able to speed up the Ponies just enough for the game to go over. That is not their game and the difference here is the fact that South Florida will not look to speed this team up. They will grind it out right with the Mustangs. The Bulls come in ranked 249th in the nation in shots per game, which has led to them ranking 295th in scoring (66.5 ppg), 234th in shooting (43.2%) and 350th in 3-pt shooting (26.1%). Oh and they are also 284th from the charity stripe (66.3%). This is a bad all around offensive team and must now take on an SMU squad that is 13th in the nation in points allowed (60.4 pp) and 2nd in defensive FG% (36.2%). How will USF Score here. On the other side we have an SMU team that is 274th in the nation in shots per game. Now they do shoot well (15th in nation, 48.7), which has led to 72 ppg, but they only score 66.7 ppg on the road and USF is an adequate defensive team allowing just 69.8 ppg on the year. This will not be an uptempo game at all. Both teams will grind it out and then play good defenses as well. I look for the low 120's at best here.
Kentucky -3.5 over LSU: The Cats are starting t figure things out and that may be bad news for the rest of the SEC. Kentucky comes in winners in 7 of their last 8 games, with that lone loss being by 2 points at Arkansas in OT. LSU has played well at home this year and they have beat Missouri and Vandy on this floor in their last 2 games, but prior to that they did lose to Tennessee and Rhode Island on this floor, so they can be beat here by teams not as talented as the Cats are. Kentucky has won 5 in a row SU in this series, with all 5 wins coming by at least 5 points and the road team is 9-2 the last 11 in the series. I look for this game to be close in the first half, but then Kentucky will wear LSU down and pull away for at least an 8 point win in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame/ Virginia Over 126: With the Irish at home they should look to push tempo a bit and their defense is bad enough to let Virginia get their fair of points in this one. This Irish have suffered some on offense of late, but they do average 79 ppg, while Virginia has allowed 65 ppg on the road. Virginia averages 65.8 ppg on the road, while the Irish have allowed 68.8 ppg at home, including 72.3 ppg in their 3 ACC home games. This game should hit the 130's.
Wunderdog
Indiana at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Indiana -10
The Los Angeles Lakers have their worst team in decades. Part of the reason is the Kobe Bryant injury issues, but a bigger reason is a roster full of ordinary players, some aging and ailing. The Indiana Pacers have turned into a bona fide championship contender at 34-9 - the best record in the NBA. This is a game that will get them motivated simply because it is the Lakers, and a motivated Indiana team is much more than 10 points better than this Laker team as it's presently constituted. The Pacers own a 22-6 ATS mark when facing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game, and 36-16 ATS following a loss. The Pacers have fared well here as they are 4-1 ATS in the last five. lay the points and take the Pacers.
Hollywood Sports
Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
Indiana (34-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-96 loss at Denver on Saturday. The Pacers should bounce-back here as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss.
Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games against teams with a losing record at home -- and the Lakers are just 8-11 on their home court. Los Angeles (16-29) returns home after their Grammy-generated long road stand with the Staples Center hosting that event on Sunday. The Lakers have lost four straight games after their 110-103 loss at New York on Sunday as a 6-point favorite -- and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. LA has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lay the points with Pacers in this one.