Steve Janus
Virginia -3½
Notre Dame has really struggled to find a way to win games since losing leading scorer Jerian Grant. The Fighting Irish are just 3-5 without Grant and have lost five of their last six overall. Virginia on the other hand comes in having won three straight and six of their last seven overall. Their only loss during this stretch is a 4-point defeat at Duke. The Cavaliers are more than capable of winning on the road, as they beat a very good Florida State team in Tallahassee by 12-points and crushed NC State 76-45 on their home floor. The same NC State team that went into Notre Dame and beat the Irish 77-70. It's never easy winning on the road, but with a spread of just 3.5, I think the value is clearly on the Cavaliers.
Notre Dame is just 2-8 ATS in their 10 home games this season and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games overall against teams with a winning pct between 60%-80%. Virginia is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games off a double-digit win over a conference rival and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4.
We also see a solid system favoring Virginia. Road teams as an favorite or pick (VIRGINIA) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 192-121 (61.3%) ATS since 1997.
Joe Gavazzi
Baylor -5½
Mounties have a solid guard tandem of Harris and Staten. But, the slowish Mounties are not well conceived for the 94 foot speed game of the Big 12. They have already lost on the road this year at VA Tech, Missouri, Kansas St., and Oklahoma St., allowing 82 PPG in those losses. Now, they face an angry Baylor team who held a “players only” meeting after their 4th conference loss to Texas on Saturday, 74-60. That makes 4 consecutive defeats for the Bears who have fallen to 1-5 SU in Big 12 play. That includes consecutive defeats at their Ferrell Center home where they are 53-13 SU (9-2 SU this year) L3+Y. 11th year HC Drew has a record of 41-19 ATS in conference play following consecutive defeats.
Dr Bob
Opinion – San Antonio (-2) over HOUSTON
San Antonio’s loss at Miami drops the Spurs to 1-10 straight up and 1-10 ATS against the 6 other teams that currently have a winning percentage above .600. However, James Harden is out for the Rockets tonight and San Antonio applies to a 130-59-3 ATS bounce-back situation tonight that is based on their loss to the Heat. My ratings favor the Spurs by 1 point with Harden out but the Rockets have actually played well in 6 previous games without Harden (4-2 ATS). The situation is good and the line is pretty fair but I’ll just lean with the Spurs tonight.
Harry Bondi
NY KNICKS (-6) over Boston
Nice win on Oklahoma last night and we will follow it up with an NBA winner on the Knicks tonight. Suddenly, the Knicks are hot winning 3 in a row while the Celtics are in free fall. Boston has lost 17 of their last 20. It's double revenge for New York tonight as two of Boston's wins have been over the Knicks including a 114-75 blowout in Beantown. Red-hot Carmelo and company take care of the Celtics tonight.
OC Dooley
Missouri / Arkansas Over 150
You will see in this analysis three different UNDEFEATED long term angles a combined “22-0” that support a high scoring game this evening. Many reading this analysis know that Arkansas head coach Mike Anderson is a risk taker which effects the team’s overall defensive numbers. Arkansas has a disastrous national ranking of #174 in “three point field goal percentage against”. The Razorbacks also have a horrible ranking (#313) in the category of defensive rebounding which will give tonight’s visitor many second-chance scoring opportunities. The key to this total surrounds the fact that Missouri during the weekend dished out a SEASON HIGH (18) in the ASSISTS category getting all offensive participants involved. Also during the weekend Arkansas won 86-67 in front of their home fans. With Anderson as coach after a tilt that went above the total Arkansas has gone 9-0 OVER/HOME. In the past three years when up against an excellent defensive opponents who on average allow a shooting percentage of “39 or less” Arkansas has gone 6-0 OVER/HOME. In that same three year span when off consecutive games that went “above” the total Missouri is 7-0 OVER/ROAD