Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday January, 29

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Wisconsin at Ohio State
The Badgers are coming off a 45-44 win over Minnesota and look to build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+6 1/2)

Game 509-510: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 58.970; Tennessee 65.695
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 118
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+8 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: NC State at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 69.121; Virginia 70.810
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+3 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Georgia Tech at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 57.745; Clemson 67.428
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-6)

Game 515-516: Wisconsin at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 70.576; Ohio State 74.594
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 4; 123
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6 1/2; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+6 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Indiana State at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 60.609; Wichita State 73.558
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 13
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-12)

Game 519-520: Northern Iowa at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 60.362; Evansville 62.038
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Evansville

Game 521-522: Illinois State at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 58.271; Bradley 55.524
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 3
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+5 1/2)

Game 523-524: North Carolina at Boston College (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 66.038; Boston College 62.383
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 5; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5); Over

Game 525-526: Kentucky at Mississippi (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.575; Mississippi 72.360
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2; 143
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+3 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: Nebraska at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 57.715; Minnesota 74.631
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 17; 125
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 19; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+19); Over

Game 529-530: Nevada at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 54.897; UNLV 71.805
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 17; 141
Vegas Line: UNLV by 14 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-14 1/2); Under

Dave Cokin

North Carolina State at Virginia
Pick: Virginia

All things equal, I would absolutely rate NC State as being superior to Virginia. So it would naturally follow that jumping on the Wolfpack as an underdog to the Cavaliers would be an easy decision. But if there's one thing every regular bettor should know, it's that there's no such thing as obvious when it comes to winning wagers on a regular basis. This game is a perfect case in point. NC State is in a fairly tough scheduling spot. They're off a rivalry game win over North Carolina, and a trip to Miami for a clash with the conference-leading Hurricanes is on deck. Plus, Virginia plays a style that we've already seen can frustrate what is a high octane Wolfpack squad that wants to play at a fast pace. Very athletic teams often get overly impatient when facing deliberate squads like the Cavaliers, and that's especially so on the road. The style and the spot both look to be favoring Virginia tonight, so I'll opt for the Cavaliers as small chalk.

Jim Feist

Mavericks at Trailblazers
Pick: Over

After a loss at the Clippers, who play tough defense, Portland comes home to play a Dallas team that is 8th in scoring, 28th in points allowed and doing fine offensively with Dirk Nowitzki back and getting better. The over is 27-11-1 in the Mavericks last 39 games playing on one days rest and 9-1-1 over the total following a win. Portland doesn't mind going uptempo with the Mavs, as the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Play the Mavs/Blazers over the total.

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

When the Bucks visit the Pistons in the Motor City Tuesday evening, Milwaukee will take the court looking to avenge a pair of losses suffered this season in this series, the last a 16-point whipping at home just 18 days ago. With the Bucks 13-8 ATS in the highway this season, including 5-2 ATS with revenge, and the Pistons misfiring at 6-10 SUATS in games off a win this campaign, look for Detroit to fall to 2-11 ATS in this series when playing off a SU underdog win here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Bruce Marshall

North Carolina at Boston College
Pick: North Carolina

Scheduling dynamics proved difficult for North Carolina on Saturday at Raleigh, as an aroused and hungry NC State side put forth a kamikaze effort on Tobacco Road. The difference between an aroused Wolfpack and an aroused Boston College, however, is rather stark; the Eagles lack NC State's athletes and certainly that sort of versatility in attack. Whereas Wolfpack was able to outquick Tar Heels on Saturday, Eagles unlikely to do the same, and Steve Donahue's troops also lack the interior scoring threats that might give UNC cause for concern. Roy Williams' frosh stars Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson now expected to make regular contributions, and Eagles will have their hands full on blocks with UNC's active 6-9 frontliner James Michael McAdoo (14.6 ppg). Heels now confident they can succeed on ACC trail after Jan. 12 win at Florida State, and Roy doesn't want to give the NCAA Selection Committee to doubt UNC's Big Dance credentials with a loss at BC. Play North Carolina

Jimmy BoydFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a good spot for Wisconsin and they are catching too many points against Ohio State. The public seems to be falling out of favor with the Badgers after the team has failed to cover in three straight games, but those were tough contests on the road at Iowa, home v. Michigan State and home v. Minnesota. The Hawk game they were favored by a point and lost by four, against Michigan State they lost by two and they beat the Gophers by a point. All three were tough games and before those three they upset Indiana on the road and beat Illinois by 23 at home. The Buckeyes have a good home record and margin because they played a bunch of cupcakes here early in the year, but they lost to Kansas by eight points, beat Michigan by three, and Iowa by nine in the games against decent teams. Wisconsin isn't on par with Kansas or Michigan but they are better than Iowa so getting only two less points than the Hawks lost by is generous. Wisconsin is 14-4 ATS against teams who make 37% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last three seasons and 90-65 ATS against teams outrebounding their opponents by four plus points per game since 1996. The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game in which both teams scored less than 65 points the last three seasons, while the Badgers are 15-5 ATS coming off a game with a combined score of 110 points or less in that time.

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Warriors vs. CavaliersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect the cavaliers will get sucked into an up tempo game here as they have flown over in 7 of 10 off a dog win and take on a Golden St Teams that has posted overs in all 5 games vs Central Division teams and 7 straight when playing on the road with no rest. In fact all teams playing in Cleveland as a road favorite with no rest off a road game have posted overs 14 of the last 16 times. In the series 3 of the last 4 have gone over and we note that unrested road favorites of 4 or less coming off a road favored game at -4 or less and scoring 110 or more have flown over 80% of the time if the posted total is 200 or higher. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin vs. Ohio St.
Pick: WisconsinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This seems like an overlay, no? Both teams come into tonight at 5-2 in Big 10 Play, trailing conference co-leaders Michigan and Indiana by only one game. Wisconsin has been involved in three straight close decisions, and while they've come out on the short end of the stick in two of them, those losses have come by a combined six points. The Badgers won Saturday, beating Minnesota by one point.
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Ohio State managed to beat #1 Michigan a few weeks back and will have a rematch with the Wolverines next Tuesday. While beating Michigan is impressive, little else has been for the Buckeyes this season. They were blown out at Illinois and also fell by three at Michigan State. The bottom line is that other than Deshuan Thomas, this team doesn't have a reliable scoring threat.
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Wisconsin went to Indiana earlier in the year and pulled off the outright win. Again here, they are getting far too little respect from the oddsmakers. After allowing 55 pts or less, the Badgers are 13-4 against the spread. Following three consecutive ATS losses, they are perfect 6-0 ATS.

David ChanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State vs. Cleveland
Pick: ClevelandFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State is coming off a 114-102 win at Toronto as a 2 point favorite last night (the Warriors were part of my overall 6-1 card). The Warriors finally got Andrew Bogut back from injury in the win, but unfortunately lost Stephen Curry in the third quarter with an ankle sprain. Curry will be a game time decision, but will obviously not be at 100% if he does in fact get the start tonight.

Bogut contributed 12 points and eight boards.
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Note though that Golden State is just 6-8 ATS this year when playing against a team with a losing record.

Cleveland is 13-32 SU and 21-23-1 ATS; it's coming off a 99-98 win at Toronto as a 7 point underdog on the 26th.
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The Cavs have now won three in a row.

Kyrie Irving has averaged 35.7 PPG during the streak, and hit a game winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the Raptors.
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Note that Cleveland is 13-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The Cavs have lost four straight in this series, including a 106-96 road setback on November 7th.
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I believe the home side catches the Warriors off-guard on the second game of their back to back scenario, and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

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Kentucky +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Monday night these well coached and hungry Wildcats will go into Ole Miss and give these Rebels all they can handle... BIG MAN "Nerlens Noels" is starting to play in the paint boys !! Calipari will have a smooth game plan that keeps the Wildcats hanging around. The edges here go to the Wildcats on D and Rebounding as they will need to play hard as the 17-2 Rebels score 80 ppg ... Power Rated @ Ole Miss -0.9 points... Rebels have their hands full with a hungry young well coached Wildcat club!!

NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Evansville - over Northern IowaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Iowa is just 2-8 S/U in road and neutral site games this season and it will be a tough scenario Tuesday night after the Panthers lost by one point on Saturday at Indiana State. That loss halted a two-game win streak for Northern Iowa and they now face an Evansville team hungry for a win after dropping three of the last four games. All three of those losses came on the road as the Purple Aces are 10-2 at home this season including a perfect 4-0 in conference play, including a win over Wichita State. Both home losses came early in the year when this team was still developing and Evansville has come together to be a very competitive team, now sitting at 11-7 ATS on the year. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series and Evansville has actually won four in a row in this series despite never being more than a one-point favorite in this match-up. Northern Iowa has not won at Evansville in over four years and that was a conference champion Panthers team that made the NCAA Tournament. This will be the first time all season that Northern Iowa has had to play back-to-back true road games and it will be a tough situation coming off a painful loss over the weekend. Northern Iowa is very reliant on the 3-point shot but the opportunities may not be there in this match-up and Evansville is a very good shooting team, particularly at the free throw line where they are among the nation's best. In a close game Evansville should be boosted by the home edge and the shooting advantages for a big win in the Missouri Valley.

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Milwaukee at DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Milwaukee +1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Milwaukee Bucks have been that "tweener" team. They are good enough to hover around the .500 mark for the past several years, but have yet to turn the corner, and often struggle against the better teams. Milwaukee has feasted on the bad teams in the league, as they don't often pass up opportunities to get a win when they are against a poor team. The last five years illustrates that perfectly as Milwaukee is 72-43-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400. Detroit has been a decent team at home, as they usually catch teams napping and not bringing their "A" game. Milwaukee has proven that doesn't often apply to them. Detroit is also just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a winning team. Play on Milwaukee.

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Milwaukee Bucks +1FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing their best basketball of the season ever since interim coach Jim Boylan took over for Scott Skiles. The Bucks are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their 10 games under Boylan.
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Milwaukee is really playing well over the past couple weeks, winning four of its last five games. That includes road wins over Phoenix and Portland, as well as home wins over Philadelphia and Golden State. It comes in well-rested having not played since its 109-102 win over the Warriors on Saturday.
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The biggest reason I'm on the Bucks tonight is the fact that they'll want revenge on the Pistons, thus they'll be the more motivated team. They have dropped their first two meetings of the season with Detroit, including a 94-96 road loss on December 30th. There's no question this team wants payback while looking to avoid dropping to 0-3 against the Pistons this season.
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Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games since 1996. Detroit is 12-26 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996. The Pistons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bucks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet Milwaukee Tuesday.

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Nebraska vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a big number to be laying down but it is more than justified in my opinion. Minnesota needs to take some frustrations out and Nebraska is the perfect opponent to do it against. The Gophers have dropped four straight games as they schedule has really gone against them. Four of their last five games were on the road with losses in the final three as well as dropping a home game against Michigan. Two of those other road games were against Indiana and Wisconsin while the third was against a revenge-minded Northwestern team that was out for payback following an 18-point drubbing in Minnesota less than three weeks prior to that. Nebraska meanwhile is coming off a win against Northwestern which was its second Big Ten win over its last three games but the Huskers have not been strong of late following a victory. Over their last five wins, Nebraska is 1-4 in its next game and those four losses came by 22, 16, 26 and 20 points so when it loses, it loses badly. Going back further, the Huskers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win while the Gophers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS this season after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half in its last game.