Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Memphis Grizzlies +1.5
Memphis has lost 4 in a row since winning 7 straight from Jan. 12-Jan. 23. It wants to end this skid in the worst possible way, and I like it to get it done tonight.
Denver is 7-3 on the road, but 5 of those wins have come against New Orleans, Milwaukee, Washington, New York and Sacramento - teams that are a combined 30-72. Denver was just 17-24 on the road last season, and I believe it will start to take some lumps away from home as it faces stiffer competition.
Memphis is 6-3 at home with 2 narrow losses to Oklahoma City, who has the best record in the West this season, and a loss to San Antonio, who had the best overall record in the West last season. The Grizzlies have been a terrific home wager considering they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. They are also an impressive 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus very good teams (like Denver) that outscore their opponents by 6 points or more per game. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 100.8 to 96.3. Take Memph
Steve Janus
Charlotte Bobcats +13
As bad as the Bobcats have played in the early portion of the season, there is no reason for the Lakers to be favored by 13-points in this game. This isn't the same Lakers team from years past. In 21 games they have just three wins by more than 13-points, and two of those came in the first four games of the season.
The Bobcats are expected to get two key players back in their rotation tonight, as forward D.J. White and guard Gerald Henderson are both expected to return from injury. Henderson is a huge addition, as he leads the team in scoring at 15 ppg.
The Bobcats have succeeded in this role against a couple of pretty good teams already this season. In consecutive games Charlotte was 12.5-point underdogs on the road at Orlando and Chicago. They lost those two games by a combined 13-points, easily covering the spread in each game.
Los Angeles is just 14-37 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater, while the Bobcats are an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Teddy Covers
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa
PICK: Northern Iowa -12
Northern Iowa won 30 games and the Missouri Valley Conference title two years ago, and followed that up with a 20 win season last year- a program showing consistency, not mercurial seasons followed by an immediate, significant drop-off. And fresh off a successful summer trip to Brazil, early season expectations were sky high in Cedar Falls once again this year. And the Panthers lived up to those early season expectations, opening the season with a 10-1 mark, the lone loss coming at a solid St Mary’s squad.
But Northern Iowa started to struggle around Christmas. They got blown out at home by Ohio U, then proceeded to drop their first two Missouri valley Conference games. After righting the ship with a couple of wins, the Panthers struggled once again, dropping five of their last seven, including an ugly 0-2 road trip to Missouri St and Indiana St last week. Quite naturally, the betting markets have cooled on Ben Jacobson’s squad – just at the wrong time.
Northern Iowa may not be good enough to beat the elite teams of the MVC, but they’ve been plenty good enough to beat weaker foes – especially weaker foes who are struggling on both ends of the court. We saw that very clearly with 14 and 15 point wins over Drake in recent weeks, and a 17 point victory over Indiana State.
The Salukis are tied with Northern Iowa in the MVC standings, but there’s a world of difference between these two squads as clearly evidenced by their overall records (14-9 for Northern Iowa, 7-15 for Southern Illinois). Southern Illinois has been blasted repeatedly on the highway in conference play, losing by 20 at Illinois State last weekend, by 42 at Wichita State, by 19 at Creighton and by 12 at Missouri State over the past month. With poor shooting, poor ball handling, bad defense and lousy rebounding, Southern Illinois has consistently shown a glass chin – unable to get stem opposing teams runs. Expect more of the same tonight. Take Northern Iowa.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seton Hall +8½ over MARQUETTE
Marquette is rock solid. They've won six in a row in Big East competition and that alone is a great accomplishment. The Golden Eagles are ranked 15th in the land and they're now second in the Big East with a 7-2 record. They absolutetly deserve to be favored by this much over the Pirates and that's why so many folks are going to back them here. We're not one of them. The Eagles are coming off that hugly emotional victory over Villanova on Saturday in a game they trailed by 18. Those six straight wins they just posted were against the second-tiered clubs in the Big East and most of them didn't come easy. On deck for the Eagles is Notre Dame, a team that they'll be looking for a little redemption against. The Pirates are 15-6 overall but they're just 4-5 in the conference. Seton Hall's defense is good enough to allow them to hang around in this one. The Hall are in a better spot and need to win some of these games against ranked teams to have any shot at all of making the dance in March. This is a winnable game for them. Play: Seton Hall +8½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
We're also playing the following games:
TEXAS TECH +144 over Oklahoma State
Play Texas Tech +144 (Risking 2 units).
S. Illinois +12 over NORTHERN IOWA
Play Northern Illinois +12 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Kansas State +1
This is a letdown spot for the Iowa State Cyclones, who are coming off a huge win over Kansas. It will be a tough encore for the Clones against a K-State squad it has lost to 10 times in the last 11 meetings. Plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 15 or more games into the season (KANSAS ST) - excellent defensive team (holding its opponents to 40% shooting or worse) against an average defensive team (allowing its foes to shoot 42.5-45%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's per game) against a poor pressure defensive team (forcing 14.5 TO's or less per game) - are 64-27 ATS since 1997. The team fitting into this situation is winning by an average of 4.1 points. Take K-State.
Jack Jones
Detroit Pistons +9
The New York Knicks shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite over any team in the league. This line is simply an overreaction from the likely return of Carmelo Anthony. He has missed the last two games due due injuries to his right ankle, right thumb and left wrist.
The Knicks have lost three straight and nine of their last 10 games. New York was expected to be a playoff team after acquiring Tyson Chandler to play between Anthony and Stoudemire. So far, they look like anything but a contender at 7-13 on the season.
While Chandler has been solid, Anthony has made just 31.7 percent of his shots in six games since he was originally hurt, and Stoudemire continues to suffer without a playmaker, with a 17.7 points per game average that's his lowest since his rookie year on a career-worst 42.8 percent shooting.
The Knicks are 5-15 ATS in all games this season, including 1-8 ATS in home games. New York is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Bet Detroit Tuesday.
Craig Trapp
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Denver Nuggets -1
Nuggets are one of the best ATS teams in the league 14-6 and even better 8-2 ATS road record. MEM is a hard trying team but against teams with multiple scorers they struggle. DEN runs MEM right out of the gym as Nuggets roll big,
OC Dooley
Toronto Raptors +6
In this condensed version of the NBA regular season, we have seen most squads take the court almost every other night in situations that have been difficult on players. The situation for visiting Atlanta tonight is even more difficult as they are wrapping up a road swing where they have taken the court FIVE times in a 10-day stretch while traveling more than 7,000 air miles. Not only is this marathon trek on the highway finally coming to an end this evening, it is occurring north of the border (Toronto) where the extra added hassle of customs check-points comes into play. I will admit that the Hawks have had a successful road trip up to this point winning three times in four chances, but my research indicates that this franchise has NOT completed a 4-1 road swing in more than FORTY YEARS. It may come as a shock to most reading this analysis segment but lowly Toronto actually WON three times in the final 4 contests of their just completed road trip, even though leading scorer Andrea Bargnani (calf) injured himself again and is now on the shelf for an indefinite period. The good news for the Raptors is that guard DeMar DeRozen is coming off a season-high 27 point performance as the team routed New Jersey on the road 94-73 back on Sunday. I mentioned earlier that Atlanta has had a successful road trip but my research indicates that this franchise traditionally has had problems handling prosperity. In the past three years after putting together straight-up wins at an 8-2 clip, Atlanta is actually a very negative 4-14 ATS
Hollywood Sports
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Boston Celtics
The Cavaliers (8-11) upset the Celtics on Sunday in Boston by an 88-87 score despite allowing Boston shoot 52.5% from the field. Now returning home, Cleveland looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. Boston (9-10) will have revenge on their mind after seeing these Cavs snap their four-game winning streak. The Celtics have been reliable road warriors that have covered 5 of their last 7 games away from home. Boston has also covered 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite of under five points. And in their last 6 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, the Celtics have covered 5 of these contests. Boston has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Cavaliers -- look for them to exact a measure of revenge on Cleveland tonight. Lay the points with the Celtics.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Air Force/ New Mexico over 120: The Falcons do not run at all as they play that very slow tempo kinda of game, but if their is one team in the MWC that I feel can speed them up some it is the Lobos. New Mexico's scoring attack has been potent this year, ranking second in the Mountain West with 74.8 ppg, while putting up 72.2 ppg in MWC play, plus let's also note that NM has averaged 71.1 ppg in their last 8 meetings with the Falcons. Air Force has been playing the slow down game for years, yet this series has hit 120+ points in 6 of the last 7 meetings, with those 7 games averaging 131.4 ppg. New Mexico has been solid on defense this year as they have allowed just 60.4 ppg overall, but in the MWC that number has gone up a bit as they have allowed 64.6 ppg in those games. Air force is not known as a good offensive team but they have put up 65.9 ppg on 47.6% shooting at home on the year and they SHOULD be able to hit at least 60 in this one. Even if they are held to about 55 points I just don't see how NM isn't able to score at least 67 points in this one. While the Falcons' conference games have averaged just 118.8 ppg, the Lobs's MWC games have put up 136.8 ppg and they should get the game at their pace which would easily give us the Over here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is 129.5 or less if the home team allowed 65 points or less 4 straight games vs an opponent off 2 straight wins by 15 points or more. This play is 34-10 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Kent State -5.5 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN: The Chippewas are not really playing good ball right now, as they have lost 5 in a row, which has included DD home losses to Akron (10) and Ball State (21). Playing against Kent State won't make it easier for them tonight as they have lost the last 10 in the series to them, with 8 of those losses coming by more than 5 points. KSU has struggles at times on the road, but they still come in winners in 4 of their last 6, with their last 2 games being blowout wins over Toledo and Nothern Illinois. I would really consider Toledo to be a better team than CM, yet the line is the same 5.5 as that one was and KSU beat the Rockets on the road by 16 in that one. Doesn't make sense. The Golden Flashes have had struggles on defense of late as they have allowed 75 ppg in their last 5 games, but CM just doesn't have enough firepower to take advantage, as they come in averaging just 60.2 ppg in their last 5 games. At the other end we have a CM squad that has allowed 71.2 ppg in their last 5 overall and 72 ppg at home on the year and that is not good news for them as KSU comes in averaging 79.8 ppg on 51.4% shooting in their last 5 games. Kent State's ability on offense will be the key in this one as Central Michigan does not have the firepower to stay in a game with the Golden Flashes, nor the defense to keep the score within a manageable range. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---Play against home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they are an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse vs a good 3PT defense (<=32%). This play is 32-9 since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ Virginia Over 107.5:Very low OU line here, even for a Virginia game as their lowest OU line has been 113.5 so far. Granted the Cavs play a slow down brand of ball and they are a solid defensive team, but I feel the Tigers can speed up the game enough for this one to go Over. Virginia's home games have averaged just 113.7 ppg and thanks mainly to a defense that has allowed just 47.8 ppg at home. Clemson, though, I feel can score on them. The Tigers have been solid offensively in the ACC as they have put up 68.3 ppg in those games, including 69.3 ppg in their last 3. At the other end of the floor they have allowed just 59.7 ppg overall, but on the road they have allowed 63 ppg, while in their last 5 they have allowed 66 ppg, so they can be scored on and should allow a Virginia squad that has scored just 58.7 ppg in ACC play to hit at least 60+ on them here. Another reason to expect they will be good for 60+ is the fact that they score 65.9 ppg at home. The Cavs slow the game down and play that boring basketball, but I still feel their is enough offense in this game to have this one hit 115 points. Even if the Cavs should somehow hold the Tigers to 49 points, i still expect no less than 60 form Virginia and that still gets us the over.
Michigan State -1.5 over ILLINOIS: (Google Play). Illinois has had a good year this year and and they are 11-1 at home But other than 3 good games i don't think this team has been all that impressive. They beat Gonzaga OSU and lost by 4 to Missouri, but other than that they haven't shown me anything. Losing at PSU, beating Nebraska by just 5 at home, beating Cornell by 4, st Bonaventure at home by just 5 and getting blown out by Purdue and UNLV does not have me thinking that this team is really all that good.In fact after their 10-0 start the illini have gone just 5-6 since. Mixcxhigan State started the year at 0-2 but have since gone 17-2, including 6-2 in the Big Whatever-It-Is-Now. The Spartans have been very hot offensively as they have averaged 75.8 ppg on 54.2% shooting in their last 5 games. The Illini mare playing no where near that well at the offensive end right now as they have averaged just 65.4 ppg once Big 10 play has started. The Illini have played good defense this year, especially at home where they have allowed just 59.8 ppg, but the one thing they don't do well at that end is defend the 3-ball and the Spartans shoot the 3-ball very well as they have hit 46.7% of their threes in their last 5 games (36.9% overall), while Illinois have allowed teams to hit 36% of their threes on the year. The Spartans are the better team at both ends of the floor, plus they also get the board advantage and I expect them to win this one rather easily.
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Wake Forest Under 152.5: Play Under in all games where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points and the road off a home win by 10 points or more and playing their 2nd game in 3 days. This play is 51-22 since 1997. Wake has averaged just 58.8 ppg in their last 8 games and I don't see them putting up more than that here. even if the should hit 60 points that would mean Carolina would have to put up 93 points and I don't see that either as the Heels have averaged just 75.5 ppg on the road. This game should be played in the mid 140's.
Oklahoma State/ Texas Tech Over 128: TEXAS TECH is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997. I feel TT can get enough points in this one for the game to go over vs an OSU team that has allowed 66 ppg overall and 78 ppg in their last 5. Texas Tech has allowed 667.8 ppg and that should provide some scoring for this average OSU offense (66.2 ppg in their last 5). I expect about 135 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Vanderbilt -2.5 over ARKANSAS: VANDERBILT is 11-3 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while ARKANSAS is 2-11 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/ Cleveland Over 178: Boston's low scoring home games have been well documented by me this year, but it has been a slightly different story when they have taken to the road. Out on the road the Celts have averaged 93.9 ppg, compared to around 88 ppg at home, while the have allowed 96.9 ppg away from home, giving their road games an average of 190.8 ppg, which is 21 points higher than their home game average of 169.8 ppg. Big jump there. the Celts are still without Rondo, but Ray Allen is back and Germaine O'neal is listed as probable after Missing the the last 3 games, so that should help this offense get going vs a Cleveland team that has struggled at the defensive end this year. Cleveland comes in ranked 24th in scoring defense (97.1 ppg) and 26th in FG% defense (46.3%), while also allowing 98 ppg on 46.2% shooting at home. The have also allowed teams to hit 36.8% from long range at home and with Allen (57.1% this year) back for the C's that is good news. Cleveland has averaged 95.1 ppg at home an their home games have averaged 193.1 ppg. Boston just plays a different brand of ball on the road and with more of an uptempo game here we should see about 185 points put on the board.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Detroit +9 over NEW YORK: Rough year for the Pistons, but after all the preseason hype the Knicks haven't been that great themselves. NY really has no identity right now and are having real issues scoring and shooting the ball as they have averaged 93.7 ppg (17th) on just 41.4% (29th) shooting this year.The 3-ball is an important part of the Knick offense, and while they did have a good showing vs the Heat the other night, they are still shooting at a 30.7 % clip for long range, which is 24th in the league. Having Carmelo miss this one again will not help their offense tonight. The Knicks have had some issues on defense as they have allowed 95.6 ppg (18th) on 44.9% shooting (20th), while also allowing teams to hit 38.9% from long range (29th). That defensive play should help the leagues worst offense get going in this one. Detroit has put up 85.6 ppg on the year, but they have scored 98 vs Miami and 94 vs Portland recently so they are capable of having a good game. The Pistons are also 14th in 3pt shooting (35.4%) and should have a good game vs this weak Knick long range defense. The Pistons have been very bad on the road this year, but the Knicks don't deserve to be 9 point faves over anyone this year and that has me expecting the pistons to keep this one close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road team off a DD divisional road loss if their opponent is off a road loss. This play is 28-7-2 and 9-0 in it's last 9 qualifying contests.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Denver -1 over MEMPHIS: DENVER is 28-13 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver is having a good year and they have won their last 5 on the road. Memphis has lost 4 in a row and have averaged just 83 ppg during the losing streak. They just won't have enough offense to outscore the leagues top offense in this one.
Sacramento/ Golden State Over 199: GOLDEN STATE is 26-12 OVER in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons, and 22-7 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons.