Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 7

NCAAB

Ohio State at Michigan State
The Buckeyes head to East Lansing tonight to face a Michigan State team that is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. The Spartans are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Michigan State favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-5)

Game 525-526: St. Louis at Rhode Island (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 66.411; Rhode Island 60.833
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+7 1/2)

Game 527-528: James Madison at College of Charleston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 46.633; College of Charleston 58.090
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-6 1/2)

Game 529-530: Tennessee at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 63.779; LSU 68.707
Dunkel Line: LSU by 5
Vegas Line: LSU by 2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-2)

Game 531-532: Georgia Tech at Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 57.020; Duke 79.909
Dunkel Line: Duke by 23
Vegas Line: Duke by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-16 1/2)

Game 533-534: Baylor at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 69.965; Iowa State 74.225
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 7 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+7 1/2); Over

Game 535-536: Kansas State at TCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 69.148; TCU 55.651
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 13 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 5; 128
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-5); Under

Game 537-538: Youngstown State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 50.154; Illinois-Chicago 54.575
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 1
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-1)

Game 539-540: NC State at Notre Dame (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 66.348; Notre Dame 68.399
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2; 135
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+5 1/2); Under

Game 541-542: Ohio State at Michigan State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 71.868; Michigan State 79.855
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 8; 128
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 5; 133
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-5); Under

Game 543-544: Cincinnati at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 71.259; Houston 57.176
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-9)

Game 545-546: Vanderbilt at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 58.209; Alabama 68.413
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10; 120
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-6 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Creighton at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 71.713; DePaul 57.886
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 14
Vegas Line: Creighton by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-10 1/2)

Game 549-550: Syracuse at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 71.823; Virginia Tech 62.960
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 9; 121
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12; 128
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+12); Under

Game 551-552: Middle Tennessee State at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 59.437; Tennessee State 46.179
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-8)

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -3

The Knicks played well out West and are 10-0 to the spread at home the last few years off road game where they covered by 10 or more points, like they did in their upset win in Dallas. For our system we note that rested home favorites of -4.5 or less with a total that is 190 or higher that are off a spread win by 14+ points are cashing nearly 90% long term winning by 10 points points per game. The Knicks have revenge for a 92-86 loss in Detroit. The Pistons are 1-5 ats on the road off a 21 point or more ats loss at home and have not had much success here of late going 0-8 straight up and ats. Look for the Knicks to get the win and cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Brandon Shively

Baylor vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -7

Iowa State is the real deal and this game will be a blowout. Iowa State will win this game by 14 or more points. For beginners, they have a much better coach. HC Drew for Baylor does not know how to utilize the talent he has. HC Hoiberg for Iowa State knows exactly how to get the most bang for his buck with his players which is evident by back-to-back 23 win seasons and a 13-0 start to this season. Sure, Baylor has only one loss on the year , a 74-67 loss to Syracuse, but this is their first true road game of the season and it will be a tough one, I CAN GUARANTEE. Baylor has played 4 cupcake teams after beating Kentucky over a month ago. I say this because I feel like they will not be ready for Iowa State. They will be a bit on the rusty side from playing these bottom-tier teams.

For Iowa State, it all starts at the point guard position with Marshall transfer DeAndre Kane. The kid is a baller and a matchup nightmare. At 6'4", he can post up on the block when he wants. He can shoot the jumper and has also recently found the stroke in his 3 point shot. Then on top of that, he is dishing the rock averaging 6 assist a game with a 2.63 assist:turnover ratio. Iowa State is strapped with depth. They have two legit scorers in the paint with Ejim and Niang. These guys can also step outside and knock down the perimeter shot. The Cylcones whole team can shoot the 3 ball as their top 7 scorers are all shooting 34% or better from the 3 point line. This is a team that lives and dies by the 3, and I'm betting that they LIVE by it tonight.

For Baylor, they do not have the guards to keep up with Baylor. Kenny Cherry is too small at 5'11" and he will get exposed by Kane. Baylor has one sharpshooter and that is Brady Heslip but Heslip is too slow to play defense with the quicker guards of Iowa State and he will not be on the floor as much as HC Drew would like. If he leaves Heslip on the court which will be a mistake , he will get burnt by Iowa State.

In closing, this is a series that has been dominated by Iowa State which just further strengthens my decision. l.ook for Iowa State to win this game comfortably. I am expecting a final score in the 87-71 range.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Baylor is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Iowa State.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -11

The LA Lakers prefer to run, but this team has been devastated and depleted by injuries of late. Banged-up Los Angeles did it with its 18th starting five and sixth different starting point guard as coach Mike D'Antoni gave Kendall Marshall his first nod since he was signed from the D-League on Dec. 20. The injury report also includes Kobe Bryant (knee), Steve Nash (back), Steve Blake (elbow) and Xavier Henry (knee). The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on one days rest. They come off an embarrassing home loss to Denver, 137-115! The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is also an uptempo team, but healthier, 9th in the NBA in points scored, 6th in assists. Dallas is off an embarrassing loss of its own, at home to the Knicks, but they are a better bounce back team, 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan StateSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio State +5½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nobody has beat the Buckeyes yet this year, yet Ohio State will be an underdog in Michigan versus the #5 ranked Spartans. Michigan State has already been upset at home once this season, losing to the unranked Tar Heels on December 4.
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These teams met three times in 2013, and Ohio State won two of those three games outright, and covered the spread in all three. The Spartans did manage to sneak past OSU at home by a score of 59-56 last January, but they are being asked to cover a much larger spread in tonight's contest.
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This is only the Spartans second game this season against a Top 25 team, and they won their last such contest in close game versus Kentucky, by a score of 78-74. Once again, the margin of victory is less than the number they are asked to cover tonight.
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The writing is on the wall, this seems to be destined to be another close game. The last three times Ohio State visited East Lansing, they played close games decided by an average margin of just three points, and they won one of those games outright.
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The value lies on a play on the Buckeyes getting points in Michigan tonight.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland CavaliersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 76'ers have very quietly won 4 of the last 5 games all as 7+-point underdogs. Somehow they we're able to notch a victory at the Rose Garden when they defeated Portland 101-99. Surprisingly all 4 of these wins have come on the road. With the Cavs anticipating the return of injured point guard Kyrie Irving, it would be smart to wait until he is officially in the lineup and let the point spread rise a point or two before taking the points.

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Vanderbilt at AlabamaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VanderbiltFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Good job by 14th-year HC Kevin Stallings, leading Vanderbilt to an early 8-4 SU mark despite entering the current campaign with zero returning starters from last season’s 16-17 squad. And even though the Commodores are 0-2 SU in true road games so far (losses to Butler and Texas), we’ll give Vandy a look behind Stallings’ profitable 19-8-1 ATS mark as a conference road underdog with revenge versus a .750 or less opponent. That stat fits hand-in-glove with Bama HC Anthony Grant’s 6-13 SUATS troubles either as a dog or a favorite of 5 or fewer points versus SEC revengers (keep a close watch this line). Recent series history also gives a ‘thumbs down’ to the Tide as they’re a dismal 4-13-1 ATS as chalk, and visiting Vanderbilt owns a super 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record as an underdog with revenge. We don’t expect much of a crowd on hand as most die-hard Alabama fans will have stayed up late the night before to curse hated Auburn in the BCS National Championship football game. The Tide has played well at Coleman Coliseum prior to today’s conference opener but the fact is they’re a pitiful 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus avenging SEC foes. With Alabama on a weak 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS run prior to Saturday’s game with Northeastern, Stallings and his Commies get the call here. Roll over, Tide, roll over. We recommend a 1-unit play on Vanderbilt.

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NY Islanders vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Toronto Maple Leafs should be in a foul mood after being hammered on home ice in a 7-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Saturday. That game was nationally televised in Canada, adding further embarrassment to the Leafs.
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They will host the New York Islanders at the Air Canada Center tonight, and the Isles are coming off a 7-3 win over Dallas last night.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Situational/Motivational - The Isles win last night put an end to a nine game home losing streak, but getting up for a game on the road just 24 hours later might not be easy for a team that likely isn't going to the post-season. While this is a let down spot for the Isles, this is a big game for the Leafs, who are in need of a serious gut check after Saturday's loss. They know they can't afford another poor effort tonight, as it would cause a media circus under the microscope in Toronto.
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2: Goaltending - Evgeni Nabokov went out with an injury in the first period of last night's game, and Kevin Poulin stepped in to play well for 47 minutes, allowing two goals on 15 shots. The 23 year old has not been sharp this season though, and had allowed 10 goals over his last two starts.
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3: X-Factor - The Leafs will have an edge in special teams play, as the Isles are dreadful both on the power-play as well as killing penalties. Toronto hasn't had any trouble lighting the lamp with the man advantage, converting on 21% of their chances.

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TCU +5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I love the spot here for TCU. Kansas State is riding a nine game winning streak and comes into this game ranked in the top 25 for the first time this season after a big upset win over #6 ranked Oklahoma State on Saturday. Now they are laying points here at TCU prior to a visit to Lawrence on Saturday to face their in state rival the #18 ranked Jayhawks. This is a huge look ahead spot for the Wildcats and it is also their first true road game of the season. The Horned Frogs are a dangerous team lead by Kyan Anderson, who leadsTCU in scoring both scoring and assists per game. Anderson had a big game in the last meeting between these teams last season in Manhattan with a game high 29 points on 10 for 15 shooting from the field. I look for this one to be close, take the points.

Carlos Salazar

New Orleans at Miami
Play: Over 204

Carlos sees some good value right now in betting the over in this game between Miami and New Orleans. Both teams have combined to play Over the total in 4 of the last 5 matchups and he sees this one getting well over 215 points.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

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TORONTO RAPTORS AT INDIANA PACERSPLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: INDIANA PACERS -7.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When the numbers jump off the page and the situation is also favorable, I’ve certainly got no problem playing a favorite in the NBA. That’s the case tonight as Indiana plays host to Toronto.
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First, the situation. It’s a quick revenge scenario for the Pacers. Their most recent loss was at Toronto. The Pacers have won a couple subsequently, and now will have the revenge motive working for the first time this season. That should insure the desired focus this evening.
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Check out these numbers as well. How’s 21-2 straight up and 19-4 ATS grab you? That’s the chart for Indiana this season when playing with rest. Their difficulties have come in the second of back to back games. This makes some sense as the Pacers lose a little on defense when they’re not as fresh. But with a little rest tossed in, they’re tough as nails.
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I think Indiana has done enough to prove they’re one of the elite teams in the NBA. Personally, my strongest opinions in this league are on the best teams when they’re in spots where they’re most likely to put forth their best effort. I see this as one of those spots for Indiana, so I’m laying the points with the Pacers tonight.

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Philadelphia vs. New JerseyFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New JerseyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Jersey comes into this matchup off a bad loss in Buffalo the other night. It was their second straight defeat after falling 5-3 in Chicago on Friday. However, if there was one Eastern Conference team currently on the outside of the playoff picture that I'd pick to make a run, it would be this one. The Devils' typically reliable penalty killing unit failed them Sunday against the Sabres, giving up two power play goals to a team that previously had gone just 1 for 22 with the man advantage.
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Fortunately for tonight, they draw a Flyers team that has lost 8 of 9 this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. Philadelphia has tied Washington for second place in the Metropolitan Division, but remains only four points ahead of the Devils despite going just 7-2-1 their last 10 games overall. Before embarking on this current six-game road trip, which has brought surprisingly good results, the Flyers had not been a good road team. They had in fact lost five in a row away from the City of Brotherly Love.
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The road team has won in shutout fashion in the two previous meetings this season between these division rivals. However, tonight I feel the value resides w/ the home team.

Jimmy Boyd

Denver Nuggets -7½

The Nuggets have turned things around recently winning their last two games, and scoring over 110 points in both. They averaged 53.6 percent from the field in those games, and made 21 of their 51 three point attempts. They face a Celtics team tonight that has lost seven of their last eight, and Boston is showing no signs up life after getting blown out by 23 points in their last outing. Denver will play host in this matchup, and that is not a good sign for the Celtics who have a 5-11 record on the road this season.

Boston is 8-20 against the spread when playing in a road game and coming off two or more consecutive losses. They are up against a Denver team that is 18-8 against the spread when playing at home after two consecutive games as a favorite. After the Nuggets skid in the second half of December they now have a losing record. They will easily be one of the best teams with a losing record that Boston has faced, and the Celtics are just 7-18 against the spread over the last two seasons when playing a team with a losing record.

Rickie Robbins

Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Golden State Warriors -9

The Golden State Warriors can make it 10 straight wins tonight if they can beat the Milwaukee Bucks.

Coming off a ninth straight win, it's safe to say the Warriors have finally turned the corner and are finally starting to win games consistently. On Sunday, Klay Thompson scored a game-high 26 points and David Lee scored 21 in the Warriors' latest win over the Wizards. Stephen Curry added just 14 points on five of 17 shooting, but the Warriors got a big lift from Andrew Bogut who scored 15 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in just 26 minutes and is finally staying healthy enough to make these performances more regular. Golden State is now 23-13 overall and 12-9 on the road where they've won their last five.

Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost 10 of their last 12 and are coming off a 116-100 beating thanks to Goran Dragic and the Suns. Brandon Knight led the scoring with 25 points and eight assists while OJ Mayo added 20 points off the bench, but the Bucks committed an unforgivable 25 turnovers to the Suns which was the difference. Milwaukee are now 7-26 on the season overall and 4-14 on the road.

In ATS trends, the Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bucks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Head to head, the Warriors are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall but they are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are in a world of hurt and haven't shown me enough to suggest that this won't be another double digit loss at home against a red-hot Warriors outfit looking for a tenth straight win.