Dave Price
Michigan State -5
At home and motivated by back-to-back losses to Ohio State, the Spartans will take care of business tonight. Ohio State has been tremendous on the defensive end, holding opponents to 54.9 points per game. However, Michigan State is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last three seasons versus excellent defensive teams that hold their opponents to 57.0 points per game or less. The Spartans haven't just defeated these teams, they've crushed them by an average of 13.1 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the four meetings, and the Spartans are 19-8 ATS all-time under coach Izzo as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points, winning these games by an average score of 70.8 to 61.9. Lay the points.
AC Dinero
Syracuse vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech +12.5
Syracuse travels to Virginia after an ugly home win over Miami. They shoot the ball a little better, but the Hokies have been tougher on the defensive side of the ball. Virginia Tech is well rested, and has the edge on the boards as well as the more productive bench. Look for the Hokies to keep it close in front of the home crowd in the ACC road debut of the Orange.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday night is on the LSU Tigers laying a cheap price to Tennessee, as the Volunteers will struggle with this one being at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge.
LSU is in after a second-rate effort last Saturday, and should be motivated with this being the Southeastern Conference opener and it being at home against Tennessee.
The Tigers come into this one with a 9-3 record overall after a disappointing 74-70 loss to Rhode Island on Saturday; Tennessee, meanwhile, ran its record to 9-4 with a 98-51 victory over Tusculum College. Excuse me, who? The Volunteers have won three straight, but prior to Tusculum, it was an 82-67 win over Morehead State. And as much respect as I have for Morehead St., this is a major step up as far as the level of competition is concerned, and the Volunteers are 0-2 in their two true road games.
LSU closed out last year's campaign on an 8-3 ATS run in conference play and is also on a 6-1 ATS win streak following a loss. The Tigers are also on a 7-3 ATS win streak in this series.
Take the Tigers tonight.
3♦ LSU
Jeff Benton
Tuesday freebie goes on the Blazers as the road favorite against the Kings.
Portland has cooled off a little, as the Blazers head to Sacto losers of 3 of their last 5, and they have also dropped 8 of their last 10 against the spread.
Nothing like a stop in against the Kings to get Portland feeling healthy again, because as bad a Portland has been, Sacramento can lay claim to being worse.
The Kings have dropped 9 of their last 13 straight up, and are a money-burning 6-13 against the spread on their home hardwood this year.
Portland has dominated in the series, winning 3 straight and 4 of the last 6. The Blazers are also on an 8-2 spread run their last 10 visits to California.
Look for the Blazers to get back to their winning ways with the road win and cover tonight.
3♦ PORTLAND
Craig Davis
Tuesday's free play winner is Michigan State at home over Ohio State.
First major test of the year for the Bucks and I'm not sure they're quite ready for it. Don't get me wrong... I don't believe for a minute they are intimidated by the Breslin Center in East Lansing as they've played there several times and have actually had some success in the recent past.
But to date, the Spartans are a little more battle-tested as the Bucks have had a softer non-conference schedule than in year's past. Granted, Marquette and Notre Dame aren't a stroll in the park... but it's also not like playing Kentucky or North Carolina either.
Michigan State is also playing on some revenge as the Buckeyes beat Sparty in the Big 10 Title game for the second time in three years at the end of last season.
The Spartans have two major advantages (other than home court) in tonight's game that OSU must address if they want to stay in this game.
1. Post defense. OSU has been torn up by bigger offensive players and are getting outrebounded down there way too often.
2. Free throws. The Bucks are not a good free throw shooting team (second to last in the Big 10) while MSU can knock down clutch shots from the stripe when the game is on the line.
Take Michigan State in round 1 of this entertaining matchup to win by 9.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Tuesday night is in the NBA, where I am playing the Portland Trail Blazers, laying the points in Sacramento to the Kings in a Western Conference showdown between two old school rivals. They no longer play in the same division, but the fire is still there, and Portland knows it can't take a trip into Sactown lightly.
I know the Blazers have lost three of their last five games, but this is a good spot for them, as they've already swept back-to-back games against these Kings back in November, winning 101-94 in Portland and 96-85 in Sacramento.
The Kings come into this one having lost two straight at home to Philadelphia and Charlotte, and now must play a team with the second-best record in the Western Conference.
Portland has covered nine of its last 12 against losing teams and five of seven after a straight-up loss, while the Kings are mired in a 6-13 ATS home skid. The Blazers have covered 11 of their last 15 meetings with Sacramento.
5♦ PORTLAND
Brad Wilton
Revenge time for Indiana, as the Pacers suffered a rather lopsided loss in their New Year's Day setback in Toronto, 95-82 at the hands of the upstart Raptors.
At 16-1 straight up at home, hard to imagine Indiana losing outright again to Toronto, so the question then becomes can the Pacers cover this impost?
I say they can. Indiana is 12-5 against the spread at home this year, and they do come into this revenge game having covered 7 of their last 9 games overall.
Toronto is on a nice run of their own, going 5-1 straight up their last 6, while covering in all 6 of those games (Indiana win included!), but that fact means the Raptors will have the utmost attention of Frank Vogel and his Pacers.
Revenge time tonight at Bankers Life Field House!
Play on Indiana.
3♦ INDIANA
King Creole
Tennessee +3
Sharp ATS players can argue that the WRONG team is favored in this SEC game on Tuesday evening. And it just happens to be the FIRST conference game for both teams. The VOLUNTEERS have dominated this series with the Tigers. Tennessee has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings... winning by an average of +12.3 ppg. The DOG in this series has also gone 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Unfortunately for the host Tigers, they'll be facing a SURGING Volunteer team that comes in off 3 straight wins in a row... and by an average margin of +16.7 ppg. And the visiting Vols should enjoy a HUGE advantage on the boards, as their rebound advantage of nearly +10.0 per-game would attest.
Tennessee is historically a GREAT road underdogs when taking on fellow conference opponents. The VOLUNTEERS have gone 29-14-1 ATS since 2004 as conference road underdogs. And that includes a nearly-perfect 7-1 ATS in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the LSU TIGERS have gone 8-19-1 ATS since 2005 as home favorites when playing off a SU loss.
In that last loss at home, The Tigers were BIG favs of -13.5 against Rhode Island... and went down 74 to 70.
1-6-1 ATS since 2009: All SEC Conference home favorites of 6 pts.
Sealing the deal is the current Conference ATS patterns that apply in this season alone.
College Basketball CONFERENCE road underdogs playing off a SU win (TENNESSEE) have gone 8-1 ATS this season versus any opponent off a SU loss (Lsu).
Andre Gomes
Washington Wizards PK
With all their key players healthy, the Wizards are IMO a better team than the Bobcats and I expect them to confirm this on the court tonight.
Going to what it matters; the matchup between these two teams is extremely favorable to the Wizards…
I've watched WAS's last game against the Warriors as I went w/ OVER in that game, and the Wizards offense played really well until the half time. John Wall was aggressive and he created plenty of good looks for his teammates. Obviously, the Wizards couldn't stop the Warriors as well, but when GSW is "in the zone", they are really tough to stop offensively.
In the second half, GSW started strong, got some separation just to watch the Wizards missing wide open shot after wide open shot. WAS L3 games went 5-24, 4-12, 6-20 behind the line, but note that they are keep getting "good looks", they are simply missing those shots.
Tonight they will face a Bobcats defense that is predicated to protect the basket but struggles heavily to defend the perimeter. We are dealing w/ #28 ranked 3pts defense in the league, allowing their opponents to shot 37.7%! In L10 games, CHA is allowing 40.4%, so sooner or later, the Wizards shooters will enjoy a decent game, and tonight they have a favorable matchup to explore.
On the other side, I think the Wizards defense will be able to slow down Kemba Walker, and with Walker not having a good game, the Bobcats really can't generate enough offense to be competitive. In the last game against the Kings, Walker dominated the game against a soft perimeter defense that couldn't protect the basket. Well, WAS is ranked #2 in the league defending Pick n Rolls ball handler plays, and this is the play that CHA NEEDS to be efficient. @SAC, CHA had 1.00 PPP 12-23 FG in P&R BH plays and no wonder they were able to score 113 points.
Finally, we are dealing with the Bobcats returning home after a long west coast road trip - physical/mental spot that usually is primed for a letdown.
Greg Shaker
Rhode Island +7
The Line: This line has been up and down dropping to to 6.5 and has seen 7.5 as well but back to the original number at this writing. My best guess is that it will settle lower than what it is not but fairly stable throughout the betting window.
Why We Bet It: There is no doubt that the Rams have been a major pain in the ass for St Louis with 5 consecutive straight-up wins dating back to the 2010 season. They actually match-up well again this year with this team and even have the better bench which is important as we get into conference play. St Louis has another quality team this year, winning a lot of games both at home and on the road. But road numbers have not been as good as when they play on their court where they simply take care of the ball better. That is the primary reason why they are just 2-4 ATS when traveling this year, different results in previous years. This has been a Dog series the last few years and it has also been an UNDER series. That gives us even more value with these points tonight. Other factors lend itself to our number being St Louis -3.3 and that's good enough for me to play it on what will have to be a 3 Possession cover by the road conference team here..
Biggest Concerns: No major concerns here except for the fact that we would be getting a better number had URI not beat LSU just 3 days ago.
Added Notes: You can bet this one for the Full 2% down to +6 and then decrease to 1% beyond that..
Joe Gavazzi
Michigan St. -5.5
These two split a pair of regular season meetings last year, the home team capturing each game. Major motivator for the Spartans is 61-58 revenge for a CCT loss. These two enter a combined 28-1 SU with the lone loss between them a Michigan State home court defeat to North Carolina. While each of these teams qualifies as a Defensive Dandy, only Michigan State is a member of the 230 Offensive Club. The Buckeyes have been living on their outstanding defense with a 116 defensive rating, #3 in the land. Tonight, however, they face a far superior offensive team when combined with the revenge motive and the strong home court, it is enough to get Michigan State the ATS victory tonight.
River City Sharps
Virginia Tech +13
Syracuse travels to Virginia Tech tonight for their second ACC game, hoping that they give a better effort than they got this weekend in their 49-44 win over Miami. The Orange come into the game tonight at 14-0 on the season while the Hokies are 8-5 on the campaign. Even though they are still rebuilding their program, there are some things to like about what the Hokies are doing. Virginia Tech ranks sixth nationally from behind the 3-point line, shooting 42.5% on the season. They have also been tough on the defensive end, allowing an average of 62.3 ppg, 37.6 field-goal % and 28.5 3-point % in their last seven games. Syracuse has really struggled shooting from behind the arc over their past several games and only shot 36.2% from the field in the Miami game. It appears as though Tech is going to have the advantage on the glass as well, where the Hokies average 41 rebounds a game to Syracuse's 35 boards. While we will admit that Tech hasn't been real competitive with the better teams they have played this season, we think this is a spot tonight where Syracuse will get their best shot and we think they cover this number.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame/ NC State Over 139.5: Even without Grant, Mike Brey will expect his team to push team, just like they have done all year. The Irish have been in allot of high scoring games this year, mainly due to their uptempo offense and their lack of defense. In their last game vs Duke they held the Blue Devils best player to just 7 points, yet still gave up 77 points in the game. NC State is not an all out uptempo team, but they do come in averaging 74.4 pg on the year, including 69.8 ppg in their last 5 and they should be able to score on this suspect ND defense. On offense, Notre Dame has been very good, averaging 80 ppg on 47.9% shooting overall, plus they also hit their FTs at a 74.6% clip and their 3-point shots at a 39.7% clip. Both teams will likely push tempo in this game, which should give us at least 145 points scored in this one.
TCU/ Kansas State Under 123: This could very well be the most boring game of the night. TCU and Kansas State both play great defense, while on offense they work the shot clock for 34 and a half seconds. LOL. Kansas State comes in ranked 9th in scoring defense (58.8 ppg), 47th in defensive FG% (39.6%) and 5th in defensing the 2-ball (26%), while on offense they rank 278th in scoring (67.9 ppg), 301st in shooting (41.4%) and 321st from beyond the arc (29.5%). Those numbers will make for a bunch of low scoring games. on the other side f the court we have a TCU defense that has been very good this year, allowing just 66.4 ppg on 40.2% shooting. Both numbers are in the top 83 in the nation, while at home they have allowed 66.4 ppg on 39.2% shooting. Both teams really like to grind away at the clock and while TCU does average 70 ppg they won't get that vs this defense. I look for this one to be played in the 50's at best.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Baylor/ Iowa State Over 146: The makeup of both teams offensively is the 3 point shot and both teams hit it pretty well, with the Bears ranking 5th in the nation at 42.5%, while the Cyclones hit 36.2% of theirs, which is good for 106th in the nation. The Cyclones are one of the better shooting teams overall and have scored 87 ppg, which is 10th in the nation. The Bears are an even better shooting team overall hitting 50.4% of their shots, while scoring 78.8 ppg. Both teams have played good defense this year, but these offenses are primed for a big game on a national stage. Both teams like to push tempo and that along with a plethora of 3 point makes should get up to at least 150 points.
Youngstown State/ Ill-Chicago Under 150.5: The Over is 7-2 the last 9 in this series, but let's note that just one of those games put more than 144 points on the board and the one that did went to OT to do it as just 114 points were scored in regulation in that game. UIC has not payed many high scoring games of late as their last 6 of their last 7 Division 1 games have failed to put more than 144 points. Youngstown State likes an uptempo game, but UIC will slow them down to a more manageable pace. UIC puts up just 62.2 ppg at home and a game in the 60's is more their style. I say they get it here and keep this game in the upper 130's at best.
OC Dooley
Wild +180
This is a unique REVENGE wager as these two teams met way back on opening night in Minnesota where Los Angeles escaped with a triumph decided by a ONE goal margin. Late this evening is the rematch out west where the Wild are attempting to WIN for the fourth time in the last five visits to Los Angeles. Even though Minnesota is 2-0 ever since putting an end to a lengthy six-game losing streak, admittedly the deck appears stacked against the Wild who just lost points-leader Mikko Koivu (broken ankle) to injury. On the flipside the Kings finally have back star goaltender Jonathan Quick from a groin injury that caused him to miss 24 different starts. But my research indicates that in the past three years when off a “margin” home victory where the team triumphed by “two plus” goals in margin, Minnesota has gone an excellent 12-3 in the ensuing contest