Andrew Lange
Alabama at Missouri
Play: Missouri
If you look at Alabama's in SEC play last year, they didn't lose a game by more than 10 points despite going 9-7. But the Crimson Tide were a different team in part because they had JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell on the front line. Even on off shooting nights, Bama's defense always kept them in the games. Green and Mitchell are obviously gone and while Alabama still defends, they simply aren't as strong. Tonight they go on the road to face Missouri with six freshmen and sophomores. We saw this team absolutely wilt under the pressure of VCU's press (16 turnovers, 39% FGs). They return guard Andrew Steele who will certainly help but reports indicate that he is not 100%. Missouri isn't as frenetic as VCU but they'll undoubtedly extend their pressure and they also have the size up front to force Alabama to shoot from the outside. It is a long season, but Alabama's home losses to Mercer and Tulane are big red flags. At under -10, I think we can step in and support the home side for something.
Tony George
Drake +19.5
Creighton again laying a big number against a weak sister here and while the Blue Jays are a Top 15 in the nation, they historically have issues laying big numbers at home. I took Indiana State against them as a premium play +14.5 over the weekend and cashed it, and while Drake is an also ran in the Mo Valley, they always give Creighton a game. Easy spot to overlook an average team, like the points here for Drake. Creighton continues to l;ay big inflated numbers in conference play and Drake, always the lesser team, has covered 6 out of the last 10 in this series and made a game of it BOTH times in 2011 when Creighton was damn near as good as they are now. The Blue Jays defense suspect not to covering huge spreads, ranked 92nd overall in the NCAA.
Greg Shaker
Clemson / Duke Over 129.5
I am not going to be Over-Wordy here but my number is 134.9 and I will use some discretion and play just 1%. Strong offensive numbers from Duke and strong offensive efficiency from both teams, especially in their last 5 played. Duke has played to more Unders than Overs here on this court for the last couple years and perhaps why we are getting such a good number. The betting line itself might help us here with the Blue Devils possessing more pace and a good 2nd half lead could mean a Pace-Pickup.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Indiana/ Miami Under 187: In 4 or their last 6 games the heat have allowed 100+ points, but let's also note that 2 of those games were in OT and that the Miami defense is back to playing solid as they have allowed just 83.5 ppg in their last 2 games. The Miami defense has struggled on the road, but this Indiana team is not one to take advantage. The Pacers play at a slow tempo and come in averaging just 91.4 ppg overall, including 86.4 ppg in their last 4 games. The Pacer defense is among the best in the league, allowing just 89.8 ppg overall, including just 88 ppg at home. Tonight the face a struggling Miami offense that has scored less than 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games and the two that they scored 100+ were in OT. Indiana does not want an uptempo game, as evidenced by the fact that their home games have averaged just 181.6 ppg. Their last 4 overall have been ridiculously low scoring as they have averaged just 171.3 ppg. This one should be a bit higher, but nothing more than the very low 180's at best.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Duke/ Clemson Over 130.5: I know that Clemson plays solid defense and likes their games a bit lower scoring, but I have to believe that a team that is #1 in the country and is a 17 point home favorite will get this game at their pace, and Duke's pace is a game in the 140's. Clemson has played good defense this year, but only 3 games were vs BCS schools. They did hold South Carolina to just 55 points, but allowed 68.5 ppg to Florida State and Arizona and tonight will be taking on an even better offense. The Blue Devils come in averaging 80.1 ppg on 48.4% shooting overall. At home they have put up 82.1 ppg, with their home games averaging 142.1 ppg. That is the pace of play that Duke likes. The Blue Devils allow 60 ppg, while this Clemson offense comes in averaging 66.7 ppg overall and 60.7 ppg on the road. so I fully expect Clemson to put up at least 60 in this one, while the Blue Devils high scoring offense puts up somewhere in the mid 70's. We may not see 140 in this one, but I clearly expect somewhere in high 130's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgetown/ Pittsburgh Over 115: I know that these guys bring the defense, but I will side with the Over here. Sure 8 of the last 10 Hoya's games have gone Under the total, but none of those games were with an OU line this low. Hoya home games have averaged just 16 ppg but allot of that is due to the fact that the Hoya's allow just 51.1 ppg at home. I think this Pitt offense can put at least 7 or 8 more than that on the board in this one. Pittsburgh does average 73.6 ppg on 50.4% shooting on the year and after putting up just 62 points at Rutgers last time out I expect them to bounce back with a better showing tonight. The Panther defense is tops in the Big East, but allot of that was done at home, plus this is now the Big East season and there are no more North Floridas, Bethune Cookmans Delaware States or Kennesaw State's on their schedule. Pitt allowed 43.3 ppg vs those 4 teams, but have allowed 57.8 ppg vs the rest of their schedule and that includes allowing 68.5 pg in their first 2 Big East games. The Hoya's offense is average at 65.1 ppg overall and 64.9 ppg at home, but that should be more than enough for us to get the over in this one. I see both teams in the low 60's in this one.
Missouri/ Alabama Over 132.5: I know the line has come down a bit here, but I do se it going over the total. Alabama plays great defense but they also have allowed 73 points to VCU on the road and 81 points to Dayton at home. Those two play uptempo games just like Missouri does and I feel that the tigers will get the tempo where they want it for this one. The Tigers are 4th in the nation in shots per game (64.2) and they average 78.5 ppg overall and 79.6 ppg at home. They should get to the mid 70's in this one. The Tigers do allow 56.4 ppg at home and Alabama scores just 58.7 ppg, but I see them getting a few more than tat here. They are not a bad shooting team as they do hit 44.8% of their shots and that should get them in the 60's here, especially in an uptempo game. Tigers home games have averaged 136 ppg, but I see this one eclipsing 140.
Steve Janus
Phoenix Suns +6
The Suns are a miserable 2-14 on the road this season getting outscored by just over 10-points a game. That alone will be enough to get the public to jump all over Milwaukee at what appears to be a reasonable price, but a closer look shows that Phoenix might be the team showing the value. The Suns matchup extremely well with the Bucks, which is evident by the fact that they are 4-0 S.U. and ATS over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee isn't exactly playing well right now, as they come in off four straight losses. The Bucks are also in a difficult spot here, as they just played a division road game at Indiana on Saturday and must go on the road against division rival Chicago tomorrow night. I look for the Suns to keep it close and potentially win this game outright.
Brandon Lee
Atlanta Hawks +1½
Look for Atlanta to be extremely motivated tonight coming off back-to-back losses. Oddsmakers simply haven't adjusted enough for the loss of Kevin Love. Minnesota is just 3-6 over their last 9 games and could find it difficult to match Atlanta's intensity knowing they have a huge game at Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow night. The Hawks are a better team than they get credit for, as they haven't lost three straight games all season. I expect that trend to continue. Take the Points!
Dennis Macklin
DePaul +9
UConn hass beaten DePaul seven straight times, the last four all by 14 or more points so ..... why take a look at DePaul here ??? The Blue Demons are a work in progress, somewhat improved over recent editions and seem to do their best work on the road. In fact, DePaul is 4-0 on the road with wins at Arizona State, Auburn and a rare conference win at Providence. UConn is young and on the improve for Kevin Ollie but they haven't shown much killer instinct often times getting down early and rally late against this kind. The Huskies have seven wins vs teams outside the top 100 and five of those victories have come by eight points or less. Thinking that DePaul might be worth a flyer here.
Harry Bondi
BROOKLYN (+1.5) over Philadelphia
Two teams heading in opposite directions. This is simply a horrible scheduling spot for the Sixers, who are playing their first home game in two weeks and are starting their fourth back-to-back situation in 10 days. The schedule is starting to take a toll as the team has failed to cover in five of its last six. Meanwhile, the Nets are on the upswing since P.J. Carlesimo took over for Avery Johnson as head coach, winning five of six, with the lone loss coming to San Antonio. Take the small number with the better defensive team, the more rested team and the better situated team.