Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday June, 12

Marc Lawrence

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants and Astros meet at AT&T Park in the opener of a three-game series Tuesday night where Madison Bumgarner matches serves with Bud Norris. Bumgarner toes the rubber knowing he is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA at home this campaign. On the other side of the coin, Norris enters with a 7.80 road ERA as opposed to owning a 2.27 ERA at home this season. With that look for Bumgarner to improve to 2-0 at home in his career team starts in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Steve Merril

Yankees vs. Braves
Play: Over 8.5

New York looks to continue their hot hitting on Tuesday as their series with Atlanta continues. The Yankees should have some success in doing that against Mike Minor. The lefty is 3-4 with a 6.57 ERA in 11 starts for Atlanta; he has allowed 14 home runs in those starts. He did beat the Marlins his last time out, but he only went five innings and walked five in that game. At home, Minor is 1-2 with a 6.56 ERA in four starts. He'll face a Yankees team that is hitting .278 against left-handed starters while putting up 5.6 runs per game in those contests. Atlanta's bullpen has been beaten up at home sporting an ERA over 5.00 on their field. CC Sabathia is 7-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 8 Overs in 12 starts. He has been less solid on the road giving up 24 runs and 53 hits in just 48 innings with five of his seven starts going Over the total. Atlanta’s Matt Diaz (5-9) and Martin Prado (2-4) have good numbers against Sabathia. The Braves are hitting right around .280 in their last eight games. They put up 4.6 runs per contest against left-handed starters with 14 of 22 games going Over the total. The Yankees’ bullpen has had their moments of shakiness, especially without David Robertson and Mariano Rivera. We recommend playing the Over in this game tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Detroit Tigers

We want to play on road favorites like the Tigers that are off a 1 run road dog win and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a win. These road teams have won 8 of the last 9. The Tigers have M. Scherzer on the mound and they have won 5 of his 7 road starts. Scherzer beat the Cubs in his only start against them shutting them out for 6 innings. Career loser P. Malholm goes for the Cubs and he has a 6.28 era over his last 3 starts all losses. Look for the Tigers to take game one.

David Chan

Pirates @ Orioles
PICK: Under 8.5

The Pirates' (32-27) Brad Lincoln (3-1, 2.40 ERA) is set to square off against the Orioles' (34-26) Wei-Yin Chen (5-2, 3.49 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Lincoln is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs over six innings in Wednesday's loss to Cincinnati. Take note though that Lincoln had thrown 5 2/3's scoreless frames over his previous six games.

Chen gave up a single run off seven hits over seven frames in his team's 2-1 win over the Red Sox last Wednesday; he struck out four and walked no one. He's now given up two runs or less in eight of his 11 starts. Also note that Chen is 3-0 with a minuscule 2.16 ERA in five starts at Camden Yards.

Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six "interleague contests", while Baltimore has seen it dip below the posted number in 25 of 43 vs. right-handed starters.

I expect each starter to throw deep into this one, and as a result, you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Chris Elliott

Diamondbacks @ Rangers
PICK: Under 10

The Diamondbacks will give the ball to Ian Kennedy on Tuesday evening for the first game of this series against the Texas Rangers. Kennedy is 5-5 on the season along with a 3.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .270 BAA. He has been strong in his last two outings, giving up just 1 run over 13.2 innings of work with 19 Ks! 6 of the last 10 games that he has started for Arizona have been “Under” the total. Kennedy is the ace of the Diamondbacks staff despite struggling overall this season. In 2011, he was unstoppable with a record of 21-4, ERA of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.09. With 12 Ks in 6 shutout innings in a 10-0 romp of the Rockies last week, I believe Kennedy is gonna be smoking hot moving forward as he rediscovers his 2011 form.

Texas will counter with right hander Colby Lewis on Tuesday. Lewis has a 4-5 record for the Rangers to go with a 3.37 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a .249 BAA. Despite an 0-2 record in his last 2 starts, Lewis has pitched well giving up 2 earned runs in 14.2 innings of work. 3 of the last 5 games he has started for Texas have gone “Under” the total. Lewis has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career.

Texas is first overall in most offensive categories including runs scored, team batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Despite their strong offense they have struggled recently scoring just 31 times in their last 10 games. They will be looking for the big bats of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Napoli to get hot during their current homestand. Arizona doesn’t score much on the road and are not a big threat to go deep away from Chase Field. They have hit just 19 HR on the road this year good for last in the majors. With the current total set at 10, the value is on the “Under” in this one. Take the "Under" to win.

Ben Burns

Greece @ Czech Republic
PICK: Czech Republic

The Greeks fared better than the Czechs in the opening game. Greece earned a draw vs. Poland. The Czech Republic was blown out by Russia. That should make the Czechs a little more hungry though and I believe this matchup will prove considerably more favorable for them.

Czech Republic captain Tomas Rosicky had this to say: "I'm not ready to go home yet. We will fight to improve our reputation."

Rosicky went on to say: "We still have a chance to fix the damage. We have a second chance and we will use it."

Rosicky and the Czechs may also have payback on their minds. Soccer fans may remember that the Greeks eliminated the Czechs in the semifinals of the 2004 Euro Cup. The Greeks scored in extra time for the win.

Rosicky noted: "I remember that very well," Rosicky said. It's still painful ... "

The Czechs figure to be catching the Greeks at the right time. Greece's Avraam Papadopoulos has been ruled out due to injury and Sokratis Papastathopoulos is set to serve his suspension. Meanwhile, midfielder Georgios Fotaki is now also being reported as out.

While a draw is always a possibility, I expect Rosicky and co. to be a little more hungry and feel that they'll have a better shot at the victory than will the Greeks. If available to you, consider the Czecks on the (2-way) moneyline, making sure that you get a "push" should the game finish in a draw. If that line is unavailable to you, you might want to consider the Czechs as an underdog on the 3-way line. With Czech coach Michal Bilek stating: "Our aim is not to concede a goal," the "under" is also well worth a look.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas limps home from a 10-game road trip and struggled badly, losing 5 times as a favorite. Arizona goes with Ian Kennedy, who is rounding into the form that had him win 20 games last season with a 2.33 ERA his last three starts fanning 26 with only 5 walks in 19 innings. The Rangers have never seen him before. Texas is just 2-5 in the last 7 starts made but Colby Lewis, and he's allowed 20 hits and 10 runs his last three starts (19 innings). The last three years he has a 4.51 ERA at home and just an 11-9 record. Play the Diamondbacks.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels just keep on winning and I'm expecting this monster run to be maintained for at least one more night. I'm willing to back the surging Halos to make it two straight against the Dodgers in the Freeway Series.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +5/+201 over OKLAHOMA CITY

How sweet it is. Heat versus Thunder. LeBron versus Durant. Miami's Big Three versus OKC's Big Three. In terms of entertainment, it doesn’t get better than this and while we’re tempted to take a position on the Heat to win the series at +155, we’re seeing more value in individual games. You simply can’t ignore the Heat at a price like this because they’re very capable of winning anytime and certainly capable of winning the opener. The Thunder have more depth and firepower but the Heat are vastly superior on defense and that’s where championships are won. The focus of conversation in this series is Durant and Westbrook v LeBron and Wade. But Chris Bosh cannot be ignored. If anyone doubts what level of impact Bosh has on this Heat team, just look to how the series against the Celtics turned in Miami's favor once he returned from injury. Bosh's ability to step out and hit jumpers and his prowess at getting to the rim, ultimately leading to the free throw line, will be huge in his matchup with OKC's bigs. The Thunder have been off for five days and if there's a doubt that persists about this young squad, it's that for all they've achieved, running through the three teams that won four out of the last five championships, there is still nothing like actually stepping onto a Finals floor for the first time and dealing with a new level of pressure and expectation. We still have to observe how smoothly OKC makes that step. Like a prize fight, there is some feeling out to be done here in the ‘early rounds’ and while a Thunder win would not surprise, a loss wouldn’t either and that’s where the value liesPlay: Miami +5 (Risking 1.01 units to win 2) Play: Miami +201 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +138 over BALTIMORE

The Pirates have won four straight and are now tied with Cinci for first in the division. Brad Lincoln is a pitcher worth watching. His skill set has emerged this year and he’s getting back-to-back turns in the rotation for the first time this season. With a 93.2 mph fastball and a curveball that he’s throwing more frequently than in the past (37% of the time), Lincoln has struck out 31 batters in 30 frames. His xERA is a stellar 3.37. The Orioles are just 5-9 over their past 14 games. Wei-Yin Chen has been rocked twice in his last four starts. This soft-tossing lefty is too risky at this price with an xERA of 4.22 and a fly-ball bias profile. We also see that he’s 3-0 at home with a 2.16 ERA but that’s a misleading profile. Play: Pittsburgh +138 (Risking 2 units).

TEXAS -1½ +126 over Arizona

Ian Kennedy has had quite a week. He’s coming off a six-inning, 10 strikeout game against the Rockies in a game the Diamondbacks won 10-0. He subsequently left the D-Backs on Sunday to join his wife for the birth of his second child and two days later, he’s back starting against the Rangers in Arlington. Kennedy is a fly-ball pitcher entering a HR park and aside from the caution that one must exercise in backing him at this park, he could be in a huge letdown spot. We saw a similar situation earlier this year with Philip Humber, who threw a no-hitter and his wife gave birth two days later. In his first start back after that, Humber was rocked for nine runs in five frames. Colby Lewis has been a solid pitcher the last two seasons and has used his pinpoint control to put up strong all-around numbers despite his 4-5 record. In 80 innings, Lewis has walked just 10 batters while striking out 67. Lewis has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts but a lack of run support has seen the Rangers lose five of his last seven. Combine Lewis’ tough luck and the emotional aspect of his counterpart and that puts us in play here. Play: Texas -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +111 over COLORADO

The Oakland lineup is averaging 6.3 runs per game over this past week and that torrid pace can easily continue here against a familiar pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie. Current A’s have faced Guthrie a combined 89 times and have a .326 BA and a sick .901 OPS against him. Guthrie has made four starts at Coors Field this season, having faced the light hitting, Astros, Mariners, Padres and Giants. He lasted a combined 23 innings against that group while allowing 37 hits and 23 runs for an ERA of 8.87. He allowed five runs or more in each of those starts and has been tagged for eight jacks over his last four starts overall. Guthrie has 19 walks and 23 K’s in 51 innings and one of the worst skills set in all of baseball. Bartolo Colon made a surprising return to MLB last year and had a decent year with the Yankees. He’s carried that over to this season with the A’s. Colon has struck out 49 and walked 13 in 83 frames. He has a skill supported 3.92 ERA and while he’s not the Colon of old, this one is focused on fading Guthrie, a guy that should not be laying juice against anyone. Play: Oakland +111 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

After dropping two of three against the Yankees, the Rays bounced back with a sweep at Miami over the weekend to make it four straight wins. Tampa Bay is now home for six straight games where it is 19-11 on the season despite an offense that has struggled. The pitching has made up for it as the Rays have a team ERA of 2.65 which is the best in the American League. They should continue to thrive as they are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against teams with a losing road record.

The Mets were cruising along as they opened the month of June with three straight wins over the Cardinals but have since lost six of their last seven games. They dropped all three games in New York against the Yankees as they offense managed only seven runs total and they have averaged just 3.3 rpg during this seven-game stretch. The sweep at New York dropped the Mets to four games under .500 on the road and they are 22-47 in their last 69 games as underdogs between +151 to +200.

Tampa Bay sends Alex Cobb to the hill and he is looking to bounce back from poor back-to-back efforts. He opened the season with two strong outings but has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts and he allowed his first two home runs of the season last time out against the Yankees. He now gets to face a cold offense as the Mets are hitting just .221 over their last 10 games and they are 1-5 in their last six games against right-handed starters.

Chris Young put up a decent start in his first outing of the season, his first in 13 months. He allowed two earned runs in five innings at Washington and he has pitched well in his five starts since joining the Mets before he was forced to have shoulder surgery last May. He will be kept on a limited pitch count until he builds up some stamina and that is not a good thing for New York as their bullpen has a 5.59 ERA which is the worst in all of baseball. The Rays are 22-8 in their last 30 home games against right-handed starters.

Bryan Power

San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

Given San Diego's poor road record (MLB worst 6-21) & generally lousy hitting (3.4 rpg), you can't like the Padres' chances tonight going up against Seattle's Felix Hernandez, who returns to the hill after an 11-day absence due to back soreness Tuesday night. The Padres have not had much luck vs. the Mariners, nor King Felix in particular, with a 1-6 mark overall, including 0-2 the last two times they saw Hernandez. The club's offensive ineptitude continued Sunday as they stranded 11 runners in a 6-5 loss to Milwaukee. San Diego is now batting .191 with runners in scoring position this season.

Hernandez was pitching well at Safeco Field before the time off with a 1.95 ERA in five starts, despite the team going just 2-3 in those games. He's also pitched well the last two times he's faced San Diego, going 16.7 innings while allowing just three runs on 10 hits and striking out 22 (issued only 1 walk).

Seattle's own offense should get back on track against Padres' starter Clayton Richard, who has a terrible 3-17 team start record in night games going back to last season and is 0-4 this year away from home with a 6.57 ERA in six starts, all team losses.

Ross King

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Yankees

Sabathia a 20 game winner in interleauge play including 8-2 with New York versus one of the worst starters in baseball Minor who is 0-2 with an e.r.a 9.56 in his last 3 starts.Yankees going for their 5th consecutive win and winners of 14 of last 18 and that is why they share first place.Factor in besides having the better team and starter the Yankees are 12-7 currently versus Left Handed Starters and 82-51 the last 3 seasons.

Steve Janus

Philadelphia Phillies +101

The Phillies have lost 8 of 9 overall, but that won't stop me from taking advantage of some excellent value in Tuesday's matchup against the Twins. While Philadelphia is struggling to win games, they are actually hitting fairly well of late. They have scored 25 runs over their last five games.

Tonight they face Nick Blackburn of Minnesota, who is 2-4 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in eight starts. Blackburn has been even worse than that of late, posting a 9.75 ERA and 2.000 WHIP over his last three starts. In his only career start against the Phillies, Blackburn allowed 8 runs before getting pulled in the second inning of a 5-9 Twins loss.

Philadelphia will send out Kyle Kendrick, who has started to throw a lot better of late. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA over his last three starts, which included a complete game shutout at St Louis.