Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Cleveland/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: Ahh The Battle for Ohio and it should be a fun series, especially with the way the Indians score on the road. At Home the Indians score just 3.8 rpg, but out on the road they have averaged 5.1 rpg, which is tops in the league. Even better is the fact that this team hits righties at a .267 clip and scores 5.74 run per 9 innings off of them on the road. This lefthanded heavy team will be facing Johnny Cueto, who has not been at his best of late as he has a 4.66 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Let's also note that after allowing just 3 ER's in his first 3 home starts he has now allowed 8 ER's in his last 2 starts at home. Jeanmar Gomez gets the ball for the Tribe and he has really been struggling of late with a 9.77 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 6 ER's in each of his last 2 starts on the road and while the Tigers do have a winning record (4-1) in his 5 road starts this year, he has a 5.04 ERA in those starts. Yes he has had high scoring road starts as and average of 12.4 rpg in those starts would indicate. Gomez also has a 5.82 ERA in 7 night starts, with those games averaging 11.4 rpg. The Reds have not lived up to their potential offensively this year, but they are starting to turn it around as they have averaged 5.1 rpg in their last 9 games. The Wind is blowing out, the humidity is there as well and with the warmer weather setting in this small stadium has seen 7 of the last 8 games put up 9+ runs. Should be a fun high scoring series and it starts tonight with at least 10 runs scored in this one.
Phillies/ Minnesota Over 9: The Phils have had their troubles scoring this year, but it's getting better for them as they have averaged 5 rpg in their last 5 games, plus they score 4.9 rpg on the road, compared to just 3.5 rpg at home. Also being in an AL park that gives the Phils to add Thome to the lineup as a DH. Thome played here from 2010 to part of 2011 and he has hit .256 with 22 HR's in his 96 career games here. He has also hit .292 with 2 dingers in 24 AB's vs Blackburn. Speaking of Blackburn, he really comes in struggling with a 9.75 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Interesting to note that the Twins are 3-0 in those last 3 starts and that 12.3 rpg have been scored in those games. Nick also has a 7.91 ERA in his home starts, with an average of 10 rpg being scored. Nick has faced the Phils just once in his career (2010) and he allowed 8 ER's in just 1.2 innings in that start. Offensively the Twins have been one of the better team in the last 20 games or so. That coincides with the return of Justin Morneau as they averaged 3.75 rpg before his return but 5.4 rpg in the 23 games since his return. We should also get extra runs once the starters go down as the Twins have a 3.92 pen ERA at home, while Philadelphia has a 4.71 pen ERA on the road. Philly road games have averaged 9.3 rpg, while Twin home games have averaged 9.5 rpg. I look for plenty of runs in this one as well.
Texas/ Arizona Under 10: Still seems unusual for me to be taking an Under in a Texas home game, but I will do it once again here. Texas home games have averaged 10.2 rpg on the year, but Arizona road games have averaged just 7.3 rpg. Ian Kennedy has been solid for the D-Backs this year with a 3.93 ERA overall. On the road he has been even better, with a 3.13 EA and have allowed 2 or fewer ER's in 5 of his 6 road starts on the year. He will be taking on a Rangers team that scores a healthy 5.5 rpg at home, but they are coming off a long 10 game road trip that saw them hit just .245 and score 3.1 rpg, so it may take them a game or two to get their swing back. Colby Lewis has been very good for the Rangers this year, with a 3.38 ERA overall and a 2.73 ERA in his 5 home starts. He also has a nice 2.89 ERA at night, despite a losing record. The D_Backs don't score too well on the road as they have averaged just 3.9 rpg away from home, including just 2.3 rpg in Ian's road starts this year. Ian's road starts have averaged just 5.2 rpg this year. I feel their is very good pitching on the mound tonight and with Arizona struggling to score overall and Texas having scoring problems of late I will look for this one to struggle to hit 8 runs.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ Oklahoma City Under 195.5: Were gonna look to the Under in this one. The Thunder are known for their offense, but this team has played good defense in the playoffs, especially at home where they have allowed just 92 ppg. The Thunder have scored 102+ points in each of their last 5 games, but this Miami team has played great defense this year as they have allowed just 91.6 ppg overall and they have allowed more than 94 points just twice in these playoffs, with 1 of those games being an overtime game. The Heat averaged over 100 points on the year, but during the playoffs they have averaged just 91 ppg overall, including just 91.9 ppg on the road. The Thunder may look to run here, but Miami has the young athletes needed to get back on defense, while on the other side, Miami isn't really a running team and will not push the pace here. As high scoring as both teams have been this year the defenses will steal the show as this one is played in the 190's at best.
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles -148
Tonight's game features two teams that probably not many people predicted would be doing as well as they are right now. The Pirates are 32-27 and 1st in the NL Central division right now, while the Orioles are 34-26 and 3rd in the AL East. Pittsburgh has won 5 straight series' and 4 straight games, but note that their last loss was with today's starter (Lincoln) and the Pirates are 13-16 on the road (compared to 19-11 at home). Baltimore has won their last two series' including two straight games vs the Phillies as underdogs, and they are 16-14 at home. The Pirates are averaging just 3.24 runs per game on the season, while the Orioles are averaging 4.38 runs per game. Pirates starter Brad Lincoln is 3-1 on the season, but has started just two games. In those starts he has went 6 innings allowing 2 earned runs and his last appearance was a start in Cincinnati where he went 4 innings giving up 5 earned runs. Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen will pitch for Baltimore, and he is 5-2 on the season with a 3.49 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .252 opponents batting average. After starting to slip a little bit Chen rebounded nicely with a 7 inning performance where he allowed just 1 earned run. He is 3-0 at home with a 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .228 opponents batting average. Take note that the Pirates are 9-48 in their last 57 interleague road games, and 3-30 in their last 33 interleague road games vs a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is also just 2-5 in Lincoln's last 7 starts. The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a day off, 5-2 in their last 7 interleague games, and 7-3 in Chen's last 10 starts. The Pirates have a horrible history in road interleague play and they will be facing a tough pitcher tonight. Runs should be hard to come by for Pittsburgh, and I don't see Lincoln being able to hold down the Orioles offense. Take Baltimore here at home.
WUNDERDOG
Miami at Oklahoma City
Pick: Under 196
These teams have a lot of star power, with potentially as many as five future Hall of Famers taking the court tonight. Sometimes that leads many down the path of a high-scoring game, but one thing that has improved with this Oklahoma City team is the defense, and it has been a surprise staple of this Miami team in the last two years with their trio of stars. While the Thunder have topped the century mark five straight times, the Miami defense is allowing just 88.1 points per game in the playoffs - a full 4 points better than their regular season mark, all against the NBA's best. The Heat comes equipped to play defense as a road dog, now 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10, and 10-3 to the UNDER vs. teams over .600 in their last 13. The Thunder have not been as proficient on the offense vs. teams from the East where defense is the rule, and they are 19- 7 in their last 26 to the UNDER vs. Eastern foes. Play this one UNDER the total.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
5* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays as they get set to take on the National league East division leading Washington Nationals set to start at 7:07 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 95-49 for 66% winners since 2006. Play on home teams that are below average AL hitting teams batting <=.265 and with a struggling bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities and is now facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA <=3.33. Washington not in the best of situations for this game noting they are just 4-15 (-13.4 Units against the money line with a well rested bullpen that threw <= 2 innings in each of the last games games encompassing games played over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto is 19-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line after having lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
NY Yankees -157
The Yankees are rolling. They have won 4 in a row, 7 of 8 and 14 of 18. Expect them to keep right on rolling with ace CC Sabathia on the mound. The Yankees are an awesome 72-29 in Sabathia's last 101 starts, including 23-3 in his last 26 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Plus, the Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter and they don't figure to get a shutdown performance from Minor, whose 6.57 ERA is tied for the worst in baseball. Take New York.
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers +104
The Dodgers lost the first game of this series, but the team with the best record in baseball is an impressive 19-9 in its last 28 games following a loss and 7-1 in its last 8 game 2's of a series. The Dodgers also have the edge on the hill with Harang. They are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog while the Angels are 1-4 in Williams' last 5 road starts. Take the Dodgers at home, where they are 21-10, at a nice price.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -135
The D-backs are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price with ace Ian Kennedy on the hill. The Snakes have won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8 while the Rangers have dropped 8 of their last 12. Kennedy has been at his best on the road, where he has a 3.13 ERA, and enters in top form. He is 2-0 in his last 2 starts while only giving up 1 run in 13 2-3 innings. Texas' Colby Lewis hasn't been as sharp. He has allowed at least 4 runs in 5 of his last 7 starts with the Rangers losing those 5 games. We'll take Arizona on the run line.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
Big pitching mismatch in favor of the home team tonight in Cincinnati w/ staff ace Johnny Cueto going for the Reds against Jeanmar Gomez & Cleveland. Cueto has been great all year, posting a 2.63 ERA in 12 starts and we used him last time out in a 5-4 win over the Pirates. Cueto has never lost to the Indians in four career starts, nor has his team, who is a perfect 4-0 in those games. The Reds typically bounce back well from BB losses, going 29-15 in that role. For Cleveland, Gomez has not looked good in his last three starts with a 9.76 ERA and allowing at least five earned runs in all of them. We're just not buying Cleveland in the AL Central.
Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore
I don't think Pittsburgh's Brad Lincoln has what it takes to be an effective starter at the MLB level. As a reliever he can get by and has actually been one of Pittsburgh's more effective bullpen arms prior to being placed in the rotation. But in his first start of the season he wore down and ended up surrendering five earned runs in a loss to Cincinnati. He even mentioned after the start that he was "gassed." A gassed Lincoln facing American League East hitters for a second and third time to me seems scary. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen has been solid this year and though some of his numbers hint that struggles may be down the road, he gets a reprieve tonight against a soft hitting Pittsburgh lineup whose on-base percentage (.279) is lower than Texas' batting average (.282) on the road. The price is decent enough to support the home side in this matchup.
Black Widow
Philadelphia Phillies -102
The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value Tuesday as an underdog to the Minnesota Twins. Philly has played their best baseball on the road this season, going 17-14 while scoring 4.9 runs/game. Minnesota is just 11-18 at home and scoring 4.2 runs/game. Not only do the Phillies have the better line-up, they also have a big edge on the mound in this one. Kyle Kendrick has posted a 3.83 ERA in eight starts, also going 2-1 with 3.15 ERA over his last three. Nick Blackburn is 2-4 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in eight starts, posting a 9.75 ERA and 2.000 WHIP over his last three. Blackburn gave up 8 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Phillies; a 9-5 loss. The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Twins are 18-42 in their last 60 home games. The Twins are 0-5 in Blackburn's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Phillies on the Money Line.
Rocketman
Oakland @ Colorado
Play: Oakland +108
Oakland travels to play the Rockies in Colorado in Game One of this 3 game series. Colorado is 0-6 this year in inter-league play. Colorado is 0-6 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. Colorado is scoring only 3.3 runs per game while allowing 6.6 runs per game their past seven games overall. Colorado is scoring only 3.7 runs per game in inter-league play this year while allowing 8 runs per game. Bartolo Colon has pitched decent this year with a 5-6 record and 3.92 ERA overall this year, 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA on the road this season and has a 3.43 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeremy Guthrie gets the start for the Rockies where he is 3-4 with a 6.35 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with an 8.87 ERA at home this season and 1-2 with an 8.22 ERA his last 3 starts. Colon is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in all starts vs the Rockies in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight.
OC Dooley
LA Dodgers +105
This is certainly a risky pick as in this freeway series the Angels are on a 6-1 roll at Dodger Stadium and 10-3 overall in the past thirteen Interleague meetings where the combined ERA of this pitching staff (2.78) has been outstanding. The Angels come into tonight riding a 15-4 overall tear of prosperity as slugger Albert Pujols is now ripping (.375 during the run) along with talented young outfielder Mike Trout who is batting above .500 in the past four games alone with 10 runs scored and 6 steals. But most of the time the Angels have depended on solid starting pitching which they may NOT get tonight with Jerome Williams (5.65 ROAD ERA) who last time on the mound was lit up to the tune of 7 runs against what normally is a weak Seattle offense. Even though they have lost five in a row at Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers still have baseball’s best overall record including in front of the HOME fans where they are 21-10 overall so far. The Dodgers offense is in for a lift this evening from slugger Andre Ethier who in the past nine games (.059 batting average) has been silent with the injured Matt Kemp not protecting him. According to reports Ethier has just inked a lucrative five-year contract extension which should brighten his mood. Here is a solid 68-PERCENT SYSTEM (52-25 the past five years with a money line of 150-or-less) which actually plays AGAINST hot hitting road teams like the Angels who have batted at least .355 in a five-game span, following a contest where the bullpen permitted zero earned runs. That system favors the Dodgers whose veteran Aaron Harang (2.65 ERA past three starts) is currently pitching his best baseball of the season
LEGIT PICKS
Tuesday 6/12/12 Plays...
5* YANKEES/BRAVES (UNDER)
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