DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at LA Lakers
The Celtics look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6 1/2)
Game 711-712: Boston at LA Lakers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 128.629; LA Lakers 129.961
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6 1/2); Under
MLB
Philadelphia at NY Yankees
The Phillies look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Philadelphia is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110)
Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.915; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.973
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-105); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.111; Pittsburgh (Lincoln) 14.050
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.150; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.953
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under
Game 957-958: Washington at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.649; Detroit (Scherzer) 14.154
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.132; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.103
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-145); Over
Game 961-962: Texas at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.294; Florida (Johnson) 17.001
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-160); Over
Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.587; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.313
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.424; Boston (Buchholz) 16.337
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Over
Game 967-968: Oakland at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.316; Cubs (Zambrano) 14.742
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); N/A
Game 969-970: Houston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 15.214; Kansas City (Davies) 15.581
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Over
Game 971-972: Colorado at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.689; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.539
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.815; St. Louis (Suppan) 15.356
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over
Game 975-976: Toronto at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 14.932; San Diego (Latos) 14.220
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Over
Game 977-978: Milwaukee at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.717; LA Angels (Santana) 16.568
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over
Game 979-980: Baltimore at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 14.900; San Francisco (Martinez) 14.401
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Under
WNBA
Atlanta at Chicago
The Sky look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Chicago is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2)
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.424; Chicago 118.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 165
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under
Derek Mancini
Nice hit with the Brewers (+140) over the Angels 12-2 last night! Got more of that plus money for you Tuesday, with a home dog a lot of bettors have been too quick to overlook.
This play centers around Brad Lincoln (0-1, 7.50 ERA), the former first round pick and Pittsbugh's top pitching prospect. Although his debut appeared to be a disappointing loss, for those who saw the game, you know the kid has tons of potential. The key was his changeup, which was something he worked hard on in the minors, and it looked solid Wednesday against the Nats. Look for a more relaxed Lincoln (in his home debut) to limit an already below average White Sox offense tonight.
While you've got to like what Freddy Garcia has done over his last 3 starts (3-0, 3.00 ERA), he's been at his most vulnerable on the road, where he posts a 5.28 ERA on the season. His career 3.75 ERA against the Pirates (2 starts) is nothing special, and when you factor in the line on this contest, I see a lot of warning signs for White Sox backers.
Why would oddsmakers make a surging White Sox team, starting a surging Garcia against a rookie only a small favorite? The answer is pretty clear, the guys in Vegas do not trust this Pale Hose offense against Lincoln, and neither should you. I'd also be wary of trusting Garcia on the road, even against the struggling Pirates. Remember guys, for as bad as Pittsburgh has been they're still almost a .500 team at home (14-15), which is more than the White Sox can say. Pirates (Lincoln) over White Sox (Garcia) Tuesday.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Karl Garrett
G-Man gave you a Monday comp play winner on the Toronto Blue Jays.
Good spot this Tuesday night to back the underdog Phillies, as Roy Halladay certainly knows a thing or two about getting the Yankees out from his days with the Blue Jays.
Last season, Halladay went 3-1 over 5 starts against the Yankees, and he was particularly effective his last 2 starts against the Yanks, working 15 innings of 2 run ball for a pair of "W's".
Yes, CC Sabathia is 3-0 at home, but the Phillies are familiar with CC from both his days with Milwaukee, and the Fall Classic last October. I know Philly has struggled at the plated for a while now, and I don't expect them to knock around Sabathia, but if they can get Halladay something to work with, then it is all over, as the G-Man just doesn't see the Yankees hitting Halladay.
Tuesday dog play on the Phils.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run sits at 109-91-3 after Sunday's victory on the Angels over the Dodgers. Today, I'm coming with another interleague comp winner as I go with the Cubs to get the easy home win over the A's.
Oakland has not been very good on the road this season and tonight they are up against the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano who has made two starts since coming off the DL, falling in Houston and beating the Brewers on Wednesday.
Zambrano has given up six runs in 9.1 innings of work since coming back and we all know when this guy is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s made one career start against the A’s, scoring a win in 2004 when he allowed one runs in 6.2 innings of a 5-3 victory.
On the mound tonight for the A’s is Trevor Cahill who is just 2-2 on the road with a 3.90 ERA. The A’s have dropped five of their last six road games and their last four interleague road games. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 interleague games overall and 14-38 after a day off.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are on streaks of 17-8 when Zambrano is a favorite and 61-26 when they play at home against a road team with a winning percentage of less than .400. So they know how to beat up a bad team at home.
I’ll side with Zambrano at home against a horrible road team tonight. Play the Cubs.
4♦ CHICAGO CUBS
BRETT ATKINS
I scored the free winner for you on Sunday as the Angels finished off a three-game sweep of their cross-town rivals, beating the Dodgers 6-5. There was no comp play Monday with only four games on the board, but I'm back tonight, dishing out a free winner on the Phillies as they take on the Yankees in the Bronx.
Philadelphia goes into Yankee Stadium tonight with a chance to get a little revenge from last year’s World Series. They lost 4-2 to the Yankees and now go into this series with a new weapon – Roy Halladay.
The veteran starter has been stellar with the Phillies, delivering a perfect game in his last road start in Florida. He has a 1.96 ERA this season and a 1.52 ERA on the road. He’s very familiar inside Yankee Stadium and faced them five times last season, including twice in September, allowing just two runs in 15 innings of work. In his last 10 starts against the Bronx Bombers, Halladay’s Blue Jays won eight times.
He knows what to do with these guys and this isn’t the normal interleague game for the Yankees. Halladay will shut them down and lead the Phils to the win tonight. Play the plus-money with the Phillies.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Gill Alexander
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PHI (+115) vs NYY
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If you could pick one pitcher in the game to back v NYY, it'd have to be Halladay. Halladay has a lifetime 2.81ERA v NYY in 35 starts. He has a 2.42ERA v NYY in his last 10 outings. The Phillies have lost 14 of 20 and are in an offensive swoon, but there's too much value on Halladay to ignore here. The Philly ace has a 1.96ERA in '10 and a 1.52ERA on the road. He also has a 64-12 SO-BB ratio. I could go on , but you get the idea. Prior to his two last outings v Bal, Sabathia had only 1 quality start in his previous 5. Lefties are hitting .284 against him this season, which could portend positive results from Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and Victorino, all left-handed hitters. Sabermetrics, you ask? Why, certainly. Halladay has the 3rd best FIP in MLB at 2.26 and the #1 best xFIP in MLB at 2.90. Just. Sick. Sabathia has a 4.34FIP and 3.92xFIP. I almost never bring up a single pitcher v batter matchup, but with Robinson Cano leading the Yankees in BA (.371), HR (13), RBI (47), R (50), and OPS (1.030), it is important to note that Halladay has owned Cano, holding him down to a .208BA. So, there's that too. Gotta roll with the Phillies at this price.
JR O'Donnell
PIT (+115) vs CWS
The Pitt Pirates scratch out a Winner tonight as the JR O'STER puts up an "UGLY BUT EFFECTIVE" winner here on the "home town Pitt Pirates + 115. JR O goes to a nice hungry ball club that wants to win ugly Tuesday. The Chi White sox off a terrible 1 hit outing last game & they take the show on the road tonight. They are a terrible hitting club at around .230 BA @ night The Vegas Line here @ -135 is way to cheap vs a team on a 8 game slide and Veteran F. Garcia on the hill. Garcia has done well in the Inter-league play and like we stated before, this is a VALUE PLAY for us! The Pirates have not quit and JR feels that we will get a solid effort out of the Buc's tonight. Let's play the Ugly Pirates +115
Wunderdog
Celtics / Lakers
Play: Under189
The Boston Celtics found themselves in a 2-1 hole after three games in the NBA Finals, but dug in defensively and took the last two played in Boston this season. It has been the defensive resolve that has brought this team further than most thought they could manage. If you think about it, the Celtics have now played their last 17 games against teams that were supposed to be better than them, and are 11-6. They have accomplished this not on the offensive end, but on the defensive end, allowing just 91.6 points per game. LA knows it will have to match the defensive intensity to stay in this series and force a game seven. They have a track record against the NBA's top teams of doing just that as they are 9-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 13 at home vs. teams .600 or higher. The last seven between these clubs has seen just one top the total. I like the UNDER here.
Frank Jordan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
This is a rematch of last years World Series teams, with some new faces thrown in for Philadelphia you gave their ace Roy Halladay for the Yankees you have Curtis Granderson. Look for a great pitchers duel between the two teams with a late run by the Yankees winning it. Play NY Yankees
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
3* graded play on the Braves as they host the Rays set to start at 7:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Braves will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 61-31 making 31.9 units since 2004. Play on NL home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season facing opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 39-17 making 22.7 units since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts. Braves are a solid 40-26 (+13.6 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons; 0-5 (+14.5 Units) against the money line with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Every season there are several outstanding starters, who for the lack of run support and perhaps a bit of bad luck end up on the losing end far more then winning end. They could just as well be sporting the opposite record. Kakakami is certainly one of those starters as he is 0-8, but has posted a 3.32 ERA over his last two starts. he allowed ZERO ER spanning 6 innings in his last start and we fully expect him to dominate the Rays tonight. Take the Braves.
BEN BURNS
Rays @ Braves
PICK: Braves +1.5
Kawakami may be 0-8 but he's pitched a lot better than his record indicates. Last time outpitched six shutout innings, striking out eight. Braves manager Bobby Cox had this to say: "He pitched his rear end off again. We got him absolutely no runs."
That marked Kawakaimi's fourth quality start in his last five. He's allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts and five or less in 18 straight. During that 18-game stretch, he's allowed three earned runs or less 13 times. In other words, he's a lot better than his record indicates.
It should be noted that even though Kawakami hasn't been earning victories, the Braves are still 3-3 his last six starts, including a perfect 3-0 his last three home starts. Also, note that each of his last two starts (both on the road) were decided by a single run.
Overall, the Braves are an outstanding 14-2 their last 16 home games. Note that one of those two losses came by one run. So, if getting +1.5 on those games, they'd be 15-1 their last 16 here. It doesn't get much better than that. I feel that the Braves have an excellent shot at scoring the upset here. However, given the fact that Price has been very strong for Tampa and given the Braves' tendency to give Kawakami minimal run support, the sharper play appears to be on the run-line. Consider Atlanta at +1.5 runs.
LARRY NESS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
The Yankees beat the Phillies in six games in last year's World Series. The two teams opened a three-game series in the Bronx tonight, with Roy Halladay taking on CC Sabetha. Hallday opened the 2010 season 4-0 with an 0.82 ERA, including two complete games. He was 6-1 after seven starts and we heard talk he may win 25 games. Not so fast. He's just 2-2 in his six starts since that time, despite two more CGs, one of which was a perfect game. However, after 13 starts, Halladay is "just" 8-4, despite a 1.96 ERA and the Phillies are a modest 8-5 in his starts including a moneyline mark of minus-$191. How about that? Backing Halladay has been a losing proposition in 2010! Now Sabathia has not pitched anywhere near as well as last year for the Yanks, entering this game with 6-3 record and an ERA of 4.01 (team is 7-6 in his starts). Yes, Halladay is an impressive 18-6 (2.81 ERA) in 35 career starts vs the Yankees (teams are 23-12) but the Phillies have been in a funk for about a month. The two-time defending NL champs were "sitting pretty" after May 17 at 24-13 but the team is just 8-16 since. Going against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium is a tough thing to do, as the Yanks went 64-25 at home in 2009 (including a 7-1 postseason) and they've opened 2010 at 22-7 in the Bronx. The Phillies are just 5-9 vs lefties this year and are dead-last in the majors with 48 runs scored since May 22! Stick with the home team, even against Halladay.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies +116
Roy Halladay is already one of the best starters in the league, but he really gets up for the Yankees. Halladay is 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 13 starts this season, 4-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.909 WHIP on the road, and 2-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Doc is 18-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 35 career starts vs. New York. His teams are 23-12 in those starts. Getting Halladay as an underdog is just an added bonus tonight.
C.C. Sabathia just hasn't been himself this season. His ERA is up (4.01) and his strikouts are down (69 in 85.1 innings). Sabathia has not fared well against the Phillies, either. The lefty is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 6 career starts vs. Philadelphia. Philly is a very profitable 38-20 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies have used their off days wisely to get rejuvenated, going 39-18 in their last 57 games following a day off. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Doc will be on top of his game tonight as he out-duels Sabathia. Take the Phillies Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -150
After losing back-to-back games at home, look for the Twins to bounce back strong tonight. The first thing to note is how much the Rockies have struggled in series openers. They are just 5-13 in their last 18 during game 1 of a series. Meanwhile, the Twins are 37-18 in their last 55 during game 1 of a series. Secondly, Cook has really struggled on the road, going 0-3 with an ERA of 6.81. And it is also worth noting that the Rockies are 0-4 in Cook's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. Pavano has been solid over his last 3 starts, going 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA, and he has been at his best at night - 2.68 ERA. The Rockies are a terrible 27-56 in their last 83 interleague road games while the Twins are 35-16 in their last 51 interleague home games. We'll take the Twins at home tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +116
The Phillies want this game badly after going down to the Yankees in the World Series last year. They should be in good hands tonight, too, when you consider the Yankee killer Halladay has been throughout his career. The guy is 18-6 lifetime with an ERA of 2.81 against the evil empire. Meanwhile, Sabathia is only 1-3 lifetime when starting against Philly with an ERA of 4.74. Plus, Sabathia's stuff hasn't been nearly as good as Halladay's this season. Compare his 4.01 ERA to Halladay's 1.96. I like the Phillies regardless tonight, but this play gains a little more steam if A-Rod and Posada, who are listed as questionable, don't end up playing. The Yankees are just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I look for them to fall again in this situation tonight.