Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -115
Harang has not enjoyed facing the Dodgers in his career as he is just 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA against them. In fact, he has been shelled for 12 earned runs in his last 10 2-3 innings of work against the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Kuroda is 2-0 in his career when starting against Cincy with an ERA of just 3.29. The Reds are 1-6 in Harang's last 7 starts as an underdog while the Dodgers are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a favorite. We'll take the Dodgers tonight as they have the edge on the hill.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
This should be a great one tonight in the Bronx with Roy Halladay squaring off vs. the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia. The problem for the Phillies is that the offense has disappeared. This is a team in the midst of a colossal struggle, as they are 6-15 in their last 21 games. Outside of a 10-run explosion vs. the Marlins, the Philly’s offense has scored just 38 runs in their last 20 games, less than two per contest. It won't be easy against C.C. Sabathia. The Phillies have dropped their last six as a road dog from +110 to +150, and the Bombers rule at home, where they are an amazing 60-16 in their last 76, including 10-1 in their last 11 vs. right-hand pitching. New York takes this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +6½ over LOS ANGELES
Can someone explain why the Lakers are 6½-points at home every game while the Celtics are just 3? Once again you’re going to pay a premium to wager on the Lakers and that can’t be endorsed. Yeah, Kobe freaked out after the last game and that’s supposed to light a fire under the rest of the team but the Celtics are like a boxer with a great jab. They’re wearing the Lakers down round by round and minute-by-minute. These Lakers are unraveling. Andrew Bynum struggles on one knee. Lamar Odom is nowhere to be found. Kevin Garnet destroyed Pau Gasol last game and Paul Pierce obliterated Ron Artest. The Celtics are gaining steam while the Lakers are losing it. Every shot that Kobe took was a difficult one and while he hit a whole slew of them he cannot continue to make those near impossible shots. The Lakers do not look like a 6½-pooint favorite, instead they look fragile as hell and while the +2.60 take-back on the money line is very tempting, we already have the C’s to win the series so taking the points is more practical. Play: Boston +6½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Toronto +1.10 over SAN DIEGO
The Jays snapped an ugly slump last night both at the plate and in the win column and a single win can do wonders for a team’s psyche. Also worth noting is that Aaron Hill and his .188 average went 3-4 for three doubles and Hill is not a .200 hitter, as he has one of the sweetest swings in the game and will be closer to .300 when the season is done. Brett Cecil is another Blue Jay that is way undervalued. Cecil has outstanding numbers right across the board that includes a .206 BAA, a 7-2 record and a 3.22 ERA. Cecil is coming off back-to-back gems against the Rays ands Yanks in which he surrendered just one run to both those juggernauts. Over his last five starts he’s allowed six runs and has one of the lowest line-drive percentages in the league at 15.1%. He’s only walked 16 batters all season in 64 IP and he’s only allowed five bombs. Mat Latos also has terrific numbers and practically mirror those of Cecil. The difference however, is that Cecil is facing teams like the Yanks, Rays, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels at difficult parks while Latos is facing teams like the Mets, San Fran, Houston and Seattle. Latos has allowed seven runs in his last 16 IP, he was torched three times in his first four starts and he’s not nearly as durable as Cecil. Furthermore, the Jays offense is much more dangerous than the Padres offense and thus the Jays are very worthy of another look tonight. Play: Toronto +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.06
When it’s warm in Cincinnati balls fly out of this park and game-time temperature is 89°F. Then we have Aaron Harang going and Harang has very few good starts this season. He’s allowed 92 hits in 76 frames for a BAA of .297. 13.6% of his fly balls allowed have left the park and one has to figure the Dodgers to whack at least one or two. It’s also worth noting that current Dodger hitters are batting a collective .364 off Harang in a combined 129 AB’s. The last time the Dodgers were here back in April when the ball does not carry as good, these two combined for scores of 11-9, 14-6 and 8-5. Incidentally, that 14-6 game was Harang vs Kuroda with the Dodgers scoring 14 times. Kuroda has made just one start away from Dodger Stadium in the past month and it wasn't good - a 4 inning shellacking at Colorado in which he allowed seven runs in four innings. He’s benefitted largely from pitching most of his games at Chavez Ravine but a .273 BAA is not so great when you consider that. Kuroda is a two-pitch pitcher and that’s it. If he’s not throwing a slider he’s throwing a fastball and while two-pitch pitchers can have success, this ballpark makes it extremely difficult. Just like they did back in April an implosion from both pitchers and an explosion from both offenses is a distinct possibility indeed. Play: Cincinnati/L.A. over 9 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.20 over CHICAGO
As long as the books keep making the Cubbies the chalk with Carlos Zambrano going, we’ll continue to wager against them. The reality is that Zamrano’s starts were better before the trip to the bullpen than they have been since he returned to the rotation and thus, why should we trust him or the Cubbies for that matter? Zambrano has walked eight batters and struck out five in his two starts since being re-inserted. He also had nine GB outs against 20 flyball outs and that, too, is a concern. His 42% GB rate is the lowest of his career. Lou Pinella had no choice but to re-insert Zambrano because he’s making 18M this year and they have nobody else. Zambrano has a .305 BAA, a 6.05 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Zambrano is also playing for a garbage club that does not do anything well and frankly, he and the Cubs offer nothing as the favorite. Trevor Cahill hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start since his first outing on April 30. He doesn’t dazzle but he keeps the ball down and has allowed just one bomb over his last five starts. Cahill also has a BAA on the road of just .213 and overall his BAA is a very impressive .225. In his nine starts thus far, the A’s have won six of them and there's no reason they can't make it seven. Play: Oakland +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Milwaukee + over Los Angeles
Dave Bush won't be confused for an elite pitcher anytime soon but the Brewers have won his last three starts. Bush has allowed just seven runs in those three games and his overall season numbers have been inflated with a couple of really rough games. Bush has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts and overall this season his numbers are stronger on the road. Bush has a 1-5 record for the season but he has pitched respectably in most starts and the Milwaukee bullpen has shown improvement after a rough first six weeks of the season. The Angels have been a hot team but on the year Los Angeles is barely a winning team at home. Ervin Santana owns a 4.28 ERA at home this season, a full point higher than his road ERA. The Angels have also struggled with relief pitching posting some of the worst numbers in the American League. Los Angeles is batting just .252 in home games compared with the Brewers who bat .271 in road games. Milwaukee has struggled this season but the lineup is producing big hits and the Brewers have been a much more competitive team on the road.
Sac Lawson
CWS (-121) vs PIT
Brad Lincoln is a guy that not too many people know much about, but he has been one of the top prospects in that Pittsburgh organization for a few years now. Injuries have plagued his young career like crazy. He's had oblique issues, and Tommy John's surgery to top it off. After seeing his last start, I was confident in updating my scouting report on him to reflect the fact that he's lost about 2-3 MPH off his fastball since the surgery. And the command problems that were already prevalent in the minor league's do still exist. I'm not saying the kid can't pitch well, because he is still their top minor league pitcher, I'm just saying it'll take him going deep into counts to get outs. And that means he will be limited to 6 innings, tops, in my opinion.
That right there is key to this game. Freddy Garcia has been rock solid all year for the Sox. He's been exactly what you want a veteran pitcher to be. Nothing amazing, just consistently gives his guys a chance to win games. Our edge here is in the bullpen. Lincoln won't go deep, and that means one of the 5 worst bullpens in the majors will see at least 3 or 4 innings of work. The Sox still have a top 10 major league pen, so we're getting a huge edge there.
I fully respect the oddsmakers giving Lincoln some love, and playing off of a Sox team that is a little cold at the plate. This line is 100% justified for those reasons, BUT it does not accurately value the advantage that the Sox have in the pen, in my opinion. And for that reason, we've gotta put a unit on it!
TAM (-120) vs ATL
Believe me, at the beginning of this year, this line would make me very very nervous. David Price had the reputation of being a very poor road pitcher for a long time (well, not a long time, because he's still young, but you get it). This year, however, the kid has been tough as nails everywhere he pitches. He's leading the AL in wins, and he's getting plenty of run support behind him. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Kawakami. Kawakami has probably the worst luck in major league history when it comes to run support. It really doesn't matter how well he pitches, his team just won't win for him.
I fully understand that the Braves are riding a huge home win streak, but I also understand that their big bats like Heyward and McCann are facing up against one of the toughest lefties in the game today. This one is setting up as another Kawakami nightmare. I just don't see the Braves putting together many runs here, and regardless of how well Kenshin pitches, I have a feeling it won't be enough. I fully admit that this is a "square" play. Riding a road favorite with a pitcher that has won 9 or 10 games against a guy who is winless on the year. In fact, this line screams sharp action on Atlanta. That being said, I'm going with my instincts. Tampa 1.5 units!
OAK (+115) vs CHC
Aside from the fact that Oakland is away from the bay, I don't see one reason why they shouldn't be favored here. They've got the better bullpen, and the more consistent starter.
Cahill has been flat out nasty of late. His sinker is hitting the bottom of the zone, and an impatient lineup like the Cubs is absolutely screwed if he's pitching to contact today. With how well he's pitched over the last month, I have no reason to believe it won't continue, even playing far away from home at Wrigley.
On the other side, Zambrano is still a head case, and still can't hit the zone for the life of him. He was actually very unhittable in his last start, but walks and pitch count caught up to him. Remember, he's been throwing in the pen for the majority of the season, it's unlikely that Lou would throw him out there for more than 100 pitches. That means we'll see Cubs middle relief, and that means trouble for the home team.
The Cubs pen is definitely rested coming into this one, but rest doesn't equal success. At the end of the day, I can't trust the Cubs pen. Although Oakland hasn't had a lockdown bullpen this year, they're still better from long relief to middle relief to setup (whereas the Cubs have an edge at Closer). While I fully respect that Oakland does not hit well away from home, with Zambrano they simply need to stand up there and take walks, he'll make it easy on em. Oakland has the better starter, and the better pen. The Cubs haven't established any sort of home field dominance this season, so there's no reason to go crazy and believe they'll beat a team having to endure a tough travel schedule (as some will). 1.5 units on the A's.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-116) vs CIN
That's right, despite the Interleague action, I'm stepping back into the one National League series going on this week, the Dodgers and Reds.
I will admit, I'm not a huge fan of the fact that the Dodgers got swept at home by the Angels heading into this series, but the Dodgers always look sluggish against their Freeway rivals. They generally hit the ball extremely well here in Cincinnati, and Aaron Harang isn't terribly intimidating competition.
This play is being made mostly on the merits of the starting pitching match-up. We know the Dodgers bullpen is outstanding, and being that they lost 3 games in a row over the weekend, the top arms are going to be rested and ready to go tonight if need be. The Reds pen is decent, but not quite as strong as the Dodgers'. So, if we assume all things equal, the starter's edge goes to LA, in a big way.
Kuroda is 2-0 against the Reds lifetime, and is coming off his best start in a month. You guys know how I love to back a pitcher trending up, and when Kuroda gets into a groove, and has all his pitches working, he can be extremely difficult to square up, and can also go deep in a ballgame.
Aaron Harang has been able to scratch his way through games this year, but the Dodgers hit him very, very hard, and I see no reason why a fully healthy Dodgers lineup shouldn't be able to score at least 3-4 runs off Harang.
I like LA to start this long roadie with a win, as, situationally, they're in a good spot, as well. Teams on very long road trips usually play with a good deal of energy near the beginning, when the focus is extra-strong. I also like that the Dodgers scored 4 runs in the final 3 innings of their Sunday afternoon loss to the Angels, which showed signs of them breaking out of their hitting funk from the first 2 games of that series.
Make no mistake, Cincinnati can hit, too, but with the Dodgers pen pitching well, and the defense not making all the same mistakes they were the first time LA came through Ohio, I expect the Dodgers to grab the series opener by a final score near 6-3 or 6-4.
Triple Threat Sports
NY Yankees over Philadelphia
Phillies are a poor 18-32 during interleague play the past few years and come into this one 5-9 vs left handed starters this season. On the other hand the Yankees have won six of seven and are 28-13 against righty starters. Halladay has better history vs the Yankess than CC does against the Phillies, but in this case current form gets the call.