Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 18

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cliff Lee and the Phillies host the Nationals in Game Two of this three-game set in Philadelphia Tuesday night knowing Lee is in commanding KW form with 34 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last four starts. Lee is also 11-3 his last fourteen home team starts during the month of June. With Washington's Ross Detwiler just 2-4 under the lights at night this season, look for Lee to improve to 6-3 in his career team starts against the Nats here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Philadelphia.

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston -150 GM 2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the mix after the Cobb injury, RHP Odorizzi for Tampa Bay was recalled again from the minors. In three games this season, including 2 starts the hurler has produced an 8.03 ERA. In 12 innings of work he has given up 17 hits and 11 earned runs. The Red Sox counter with Lefty Doubront who has been struggling with control this year working on a 4-3 record and 4.91 ERA. Boston is 21-14 at home, Tampa Bay 15-17 on the road. At Boston the Rays are hitting .092 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox have won 4-of-5 against Tampa Bay, and show with a super 6-1 mark off a loss. Finally, with Boston winning 4 straight with Doubront against Tampa Bay, we will take a ticket with the home club. Good Luck.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Milwaukee has a good young arm on the mound in Alfredo Figaro (3.47 ERA), striking out 37 in 46+ innings with only 7 walks. He's a keeper and in his last three starts he has a 14-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Houston has problems on offense and in the field with defense. Starter Jordan Lyles has struggled against the Brewers with a 1-3 record and a 4.11 ERA against them. The Astros are 24-49 in their last 73 home games and 4-10 in Lyles' last 14 home starts.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego vs. San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Andrew Cashner (5-3, 3.52 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Cashner is coming off a 3-2 win over the Braves on Tuesday by striking out five over eight innings of work. In all the big right-hander would give up two runs off six hits with a walk. Cashner has now thrown two quality starts in a row and gone at least six innings in each of his last seven (note that he's 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA in all "night games" this season). Cashner will be opposed by Matt Cain (5-3, 4.70 ERA) who gave up two hits and two walks over 6 2/3's scoreless frames vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday. Cain is also coming off back to back decent starts and will look to improve upon his 3-1, 4.62 ERA home record. These teams don't score a lot of runs and that's definitely been the case when playing against each other in 2013, coming into the series opener on Monday night with the O/U sitting at 2-4 so far. "Recent performance" plays a role in my handicapping method and each starter comes into this game with considerable momentum; expect a duel into the latter frames and for this one to sneak below the posted number.

Sam Martin

San Antonio at Miami
Prediction: Under

All three games in San Antonio sailed over the total, but now this series returns to Miami for tonight, and potentially a Game Seven, where the first two games of this series fell under the total. We'll back the Under here noting San Antonio is 8-1 Under after allowing 100 or more points in back-to-back games, as well as 19-9 Under after two straight home games. Miami's defense was embarrassed on Sunday after the Spurs shot 60% from the floor, and in a "must win" spot tonight we expect a much better defensive effort. Spurs also looking to rebound from a poor defensive game allowing 104 points, and defenses prevail in a pivotal Game Six tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies fit a nice system that has won 15 of 18 times since 2005. Play on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a 1 run home favored win and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent that is off a 1 run road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs on 5 or more hits if both teams had 1 or less errors. The Phillies are off a 5-4 walk off win courtesy of Dominic Brown who picked Up closer Papelbon who blew the save with one strike to go. The Phillies have won 16 of 20 times as a home favorite off a 1 run win at home if they scored 5 or more runs. Washington is 0-4 on the road off a 1 run road loss. Cliff Lee starts for Philadelphia and he has allowed just 4 runs in 20 innings in his last 3 starts vs The Nationals. He will oppose R. Detwiler who allowed 5 runs in 5 inning here last season. Look for the Phillies to take another from Washington.

Bryan Power

LA Dodgers vs. NY Yankees
Pick: LA Dodgers

Just a short two-game set between two of the higher profile teams in MLB here, and neither has been playing well lately. The Dodgers come in having lost six of eight while the Yankees are 1-5 last six. I give the road team the edge in this one, mainly because Hyun-Jin Ryu will be pitching.

Ryu comes in with a 1.59 ERA his last three starts and a 0.970 WHIP. He's allowed just four runs in 22+ IP & is 6-2 w/ a 2.85 ERA in 13 starts for the year. Starting on 5+ days rest, as he is here, Ryu is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA this season. Despite owning a 14-7 record vs. lefties, the Yankees are averaging just 3.3 runs in those games, so that record is a bit misleading. Also, the Yankees are averaging just 2.7 runs the last nine games while batting below .200.

Phil Hughes has a 6.52 ERA at home this season. The last two times Hughes has started here, the Yankees have lost by a combined score of 23-3. He walked a career-worst five batters his last time out. Also, the team is 7-12 at home off a one-run win since the start of last season.

Will Rogers

Milwaukee vs. Houston
Pick: Houston

Though the Brewers had Monday off while the Astros lost (snapped 4-game win streak), I'll still side with the home team here. Milwaukee is just too untrustworthy on the road and Jordan Lyles has actually been a reliable arm for Houston.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Field Advantage - The Brew Crew is just 12-20 on the road this season, averaging only four runs/game. They lost two of three in Cincinnati over the weekend, getting held to 1 run in a loss Sunday.

2. Jordan Lyles - The Astros starter has a 1.83 ERA his last three starts and just threw seven scoreless innings his most recent start, a 6-1 win at Seattle. He gave up just three hits. It was the 5th time in 6 starts allowing two runs or less.

3. X-Factor - Milwaukee is just 2-7 in Interleague Play this year, averaging only 3.2 runs/game.

Jesse Schule

Miami vs. Arizona
Pick: Miami +1.5

The Marlins (22-47) are the worst team in the Major Leagues, so why would anyone want to bet on them? Well they have won six of their last nine games overall, including a 3-2 win in last night's series opener in Arizona. It's no coincidence that the Marlin's improved play just so happens to have come at the same time as Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup.

It was a solo home run (his second of the game) from Stanton that put the Fish in front in the top of the ninth, in last night's 3-2 win at Chase Field. He has recorded at least one hit in each of his seven games back from the DL, and he's batting .393 with four home runs and 10 RBIs during that span. He sure likes playing in Arizona, he's hit .349 with six homers and 13 RBIs in 12 visits to Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks have called up Randall Delgado from Triple-A to make his first start of the season tonight. He pitched his way out of the starting lineup during spring training, posting an ERA of 7.45 in six appearances. He also struggled in his only appearance at Chase Field this season, allowing a pair of runs in two innings as a reliever.

The Marlins will hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, who is also making his season debut as a starter for the Fish. Eovaldi doesn't have a ton of major league experience, but he has been successful in previous trips to Arizona. He's 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA in two prior starts at Chase Field.

The Diamondbacks are mired in a four game losing skid, and they are in a tough spot against a red hot Marlins team. The Fish should be able to hang with Arizona tonight.

Steve Merril

NY Mets vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta GM 1

We recommend playing the Braves in Game 1 of their doubleheader against the Mets on Tuesday afternoon. A pair of young pitchers take the mound in Atlanta as the Braves host the Mets for the first of a doubleheader. Alex Wood makes the spot start for the home team as he comes out of the bullpen. Wood made 10 starts for AA Mississippi while sporting a 1.26 ERA in those contests. He struck out 57 while walking only 15 in 57 innings of work in AA. Wood held lefties to a .185 average while righties hit just .199. The Mets are hitting .218 against left-handed starters this season. They are hitting right around .200 in their last eight games and they’ve struggled to get much going offensively. Atlanta’s bullpen has an ERA under 2.00 at home as a unit. Matt Harvey is 5-1 in 14 starts for the Mets. He faced the Braves last year in New York and gave up 2 runs and two hits in a 4-0 loss to Atlanta. The Braves are 14-8 in day games. New York’s bullpen has been an issue with an ERA over 5.00 on the road. We recommend playing the Braves in Game 1 of their doubleheader against the Mets on Tuesday afternoon.

Bruce Marshall

NY Mets vs. Atlanta
Pick: NY Mets

Usually we're not going to recommend against Atlanta at Turner Field, where the Braves are now 24-8 this season after rallying for a win in the opener of this midweek set vs. the Mets on Monday night. But we took a stab with big underdog Miami last night at Arizona and were rewarded, and New York looks an intriguing longshot tonight. Tuesday also marks the long-awaited MLB debut of Mets righty Zack Wheeler, the 23-year-old flamethrower who just so happens to be making his big league premiere nearby the Atlanta suburbs from where he hails. The hard-throwing Wheeler struck out 73 in 68 2/3 IP at AAA Las Vegas, and will be facing a potent but notoriously free-swinging Braves lineup full of strikeout hitters such as Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward and others. Atlanta starter Paul Maholm has not been particularly sharp lately, with a 4.69 ERA in his last four starts.

Art Aronson

San Diego vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under

Andrew Cashner (5-3, 3.52 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Cashner is coming off a 3-2 win over the Braves on Tuesday by striking out five over eight innings of work. In all the big right-hander would give up two runs off six hits with a walk. Cashner has now thrown two quality starts in a row and gone at least six innings in each of his last seven (note that he's 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA in all "night games" this season). Cashner will be opposed by Matt Cain (5-3, 4.70 ERA) who gave up two hits and two walks over 6 2/3's scoreless frames vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday. Cain is also coming off back to back decent starts and will look to improve upon his 3-1, 4.62 ERA home record. These teams don't score a lot of runs and that's definitely been the case when playing against each other in 2013, coming into the series opener on Monday night with the O/U sitting at 2-4 so far. "Recent performance" plays a role in my handicapping method and each starter comes into this game with considerable momentum; expect a duel into the latter frames and for this one to sneak below the posted number.

Stephen Nover

Chicago White Sox +110

The White Sox are last in the league in offense and have the worst road mark. So why the hell back them in this matchup?

Just two reasons - but they're big reasons: Target Field where the opposition is the equally bad Twins and Minnesota starter Mike Pelfrey.

The White Sox have dominated the Twins at Target Field winning 15 of the last 19 times, including seven of the past eight. They are underdogs here in a pitching matchup of Dylan Axelrod against Mike Pelfrey.

Axelrod is pitching on seven days rest after getting hammered by Toronto during his last start. Prior to that outing against the Blue Jays, though, Axelrod has been pitching well with a 2.66 ERA in four starts.

Now let's discuss Pelfrey. The Twins believe he's turning the corner since he's pitched into the seventh inning during each of his last two starts while showing better command. That's about the best you can say about Pelfrey, who I rate as one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

These are Pelfrey's numbers in 13 starts this year: 64 2/3 innings, 84 hits, 21 walks and a 6.12 ERA. The Twins have lost six of his last seven starts. The White Sox are 5-1 in Axelrod's past six starts.

Chicago isn't playing well. Neither, however, is Minnesota. The Twins have dropped seven of their last 11 averaging 2.6 runs during this span. Axelrod is better than Pelfrey and getting a plus price.

These two pitchers faced one another on May 15 and it was no-contest. The White Sox won, 9-4, tagging Pelfrey for five runs on eight hits in four-plus innings. Adam Dunn hit a homer off Pelfrey. The streaky Dunn loves Target Field where he's batting .343 with five homers and 13 RBIs in his last nine games there.

Jimmy Boyd

LA Dodgers +100

There is a lot of value on the Dodgers when they have Hyun-Jin Ryu getting the start. Ryu has a 6-2 record in 13 starts and a 2.85 ERA on the season. He has been extremely impressive in his last 3 starts posting a 1.59 ERA and 0.970 WHIP.

The Yankees will have Phil Hughes getting the start today. Hughes is 1-3 at home in 6 starts and he has a 6.52 ERA in those games. He has managed an average of just 4.8 innings in those games and has given up 7 home runs. Those numbers are very bad for a pitcher throwing in front of his home crowd.