GamePlan
Cincinnati -180
Pittsburgh is 2-8 in Morton's last 10 starts vs. National League Central. Pittsburgh is 6-24 in Morton's last 30 starts with 4 days of rest. Pittsburgh is 1-9 in Morton's last 10 Tuesday starts. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in Morton's last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Pittsburgh 0-4 in Morton's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 10-0 in Latos' last 10 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Reds are 10-1 in Latos' last 11 starts during game 2 of a series. Reds are 20-6 in Latos' last 26 home starts. Reds are 11-1 when Latos pitches against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons. Take Cincinnati.
Jeffrey Brandes
Mets / Braves Under 7 GM 1
Pitchers:
NEW YORK METS: MATT HARVEY (R) ERA: 2.04 W/L: 5-1
ATLANTA BRAVES: ALEX WOOD (L) ERA: 0.00 W/L: 0-0
A look at the future is here in the first game of a day night double header. The Mets send out their rookie Phenom MATT HARVEY. He will be facing ALEX WOOD who was Atlanta's second-round pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. Wood will be making his first major league start today. In 6 relief appearances totaling 7 2/3 innings, he has 9 strikeouts.
Harvey just had his 13 game streak broken where the Mets didn't lose with him as the starter. In his last 3 games, Harvey has a 2.84 ERA. Wood's ERA in relief is 3.52. This look at the future should be a nice pitcher's dual.
Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Brad Diamond
Boston -150 GM 2
In the mix after the Cobb injury, RHP Odorizzi for Tampa Bay was recalled again from the minors. In three games this season, including 2 starts the hurler has produced an 8.03 ERA. In 12 innings of work he has given up 17 hits and 11 earned runs. The Red Sox counter with Lefty Doubront who has been struggling with control this year working on a 4-3 record and 4.91 ERA. Boston is 21-14 at home, Tampa Bay 15-17 on the road. At Boston the Rays are hitting .092 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox have won 4-of-5 against Tampa Bay, and show with a super 6-1 mark off a loss. Finally, with Boston winning 4 straight with Doubront against Tampa Bay, we will take a ticket with the home club.
Steve Janus
Minnesota Twins -125
The Minnesota Twins are showing some great value as a small home favorite in a division showdown against the White Sox. The Twins will send out Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, including each of the last three. His recent string of strong starts will have him extremely motivated to makeup for a very poor outing against the White Sox earlier this season. Minnesota's offense figures to give Pelfrey some solid run-support, as the White Sox are scheduled to send out Dylan Axelrod. In 13 starts this season, Axelrod is just 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.365 WHIP. Axelrod won't be pitching with much confidence after getting rocked for six runs on 8 hits (3 HRs) and 4 walks in just 4 innings of work against the Blue Jays in his last start. Axelrod also struggled against the Twins earlier this season, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in just 5 and 1/3.
Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 10-game span this season and a dominant 16-2 against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15-game span. Chicago is just 5-16 in Game 1 of a series, 2-12 in their last 14 road games and 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs a team with a losing record!
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -115
This is a nice price to back Cleveland at home where it has won 18 of its last 26. The Royals have been playing well, but we can't forget that they are 11-38 in road games following 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less since 1997. Ervin Santana has pitched well of late, but the Royals are still just 2-6 in his last 8 starts. In addition, he's 3-8 (5-10 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.33 in 15 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians are 7-3 in Ubaldo Jimenez's last 10 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. I also like the fact the Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a home favorite. Take the Tribe.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners +165
The Mariners are a value play at this price given the struggles of Joe Blanton, who is 1-10 with an ERA of 5.87. He's 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 5.12 ERA against division opponents. Also, Blanton is 2-6 on the moneyline in his last 8 starts versus Seattle. Jeremy Bonderman has made only three starts, but he's been lights out in his last two, giving up just 1 run in 14 innings.
Don Best Consensus
Padres at Giants
Pick: Over
The over is 7-3 in the Giants' last 10 Tuesdays games and the over is 7-2 in Giants' RHP Matt Cain's last 9 starts vs. San Diego Padres. The over is also 6-2-1 in Cain's last 9 home starts against the Padres. In games that Padres' RHP Cashner starts, the over is 4-6, and in games that Giants' RHP Cain starts, the over is 9-4 this season. Play Padres-Giants over.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Boston GM 1
Pick: Tampa Bay +105
The Rays are just four behind in the loss column, so these games become doubly important. Boston comes limping home after dropping three of four in Baltimore. Alfredo Aceves has been awful the last two seasons, and was even demoted to Pawtucket for awhile this season, as he has struggled to a 5.58 ERA. The Rays have not fared well on the road where they are under .500 for the season, but there has been a much better outcome when facing a right hander on the road, where they are an impressive 10-4 in their last 14. The Red Sox are a miserable 1-5 in Aceves' last six home starts, and Boston is 21-43 in their last 64 vs. a winning team. Play on Tampa Bay in Game One.
MLB Predictions
Oakland Athletics +161
The Rangers took the first game of this important series vs their division rivals 8-7, but the Rangers had lost 6 straight prior to last night's victory. Texas is now 39-31 trailing the A's in the AL West who are 42-30 on the year (20-18 on the road). Before last night the Rangers had scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 straight games as their bats have gone cold. Tonight they will be facing a starting pitcher who has really gotten into form lately. Jarrod Parker is 5-6 on the season with a 4.45 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.35 WHIP. After a rough start to the season Parker posted a 2-2 record and 3.62 ERA over 5 starts in May. He has made three starts in June going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .171 OBA and 0.84 WHIP. He has made a start in Texas going 7 innings allowing 6 hits and 3 earned runs with 5 strikeouts and just 1 walk. The Rangers will counter with their ace Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season with a 2.64 ERA, .181 OBA and 0.94 WHIP. There is no doubt he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, but when the team behind you isn't hitting it makes it tough to win. The Rangers are just 1-4 in Darvish's last 5 starts. The A's have faced Yu Darvish once this season in Texas and won 1-0. Take note that the A's are 9-1 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are also 22-8 in their last 30 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 4-0 in Parker's last 4 starts. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 as a home favorite and 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite between -151 and -200. Tonight's game should be a pitching duel and at +161 I will take the first place A's over a slumping Rangers team.
JEFF BENTON
Your Tuesday freebie is the Under as the Dodgers play the Yankees in the Bronx this evening.
New York was able to get 6 runs in their most recent contest on Sunday in Anaheim, but not sure they are out of their offensive slump based on one game, as the Yankees had only plated 18 runs in their previous 8 games prior to Sunday's 6-spot.
The Yankees enter this home game tonight on a 7-2-1 Under run their last 10 times on the diamond, and they will be facing impressive rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA for the season. Over his last 3 starts, Jin Ryu's ERA is just 1.59 with only 4 runs surrendered in 22-plus innings of work.
Hard to see the Yanks struggling attack lighting up the scoreboard in this one.
Phil Hughes will go for New York, and while he has been shaky, it should be noted that 4 of his last 5 starts have ended up holding Under the total.
Series opener in the Bronx to stay Under the total.
3* L.A.DODGERS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for Tuesday is a matinee contest, as I like the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a doubleheader, as they host intradivision-rival New York and my money is on the rookie in the first game - starting left-hander Alex Wood, the Braves' second-round pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound fireballer will make his first Major League start.
He has several appearances out of the bullpen, so there should be a comfort zone he's used to, including an inning of work his last time out, against the defending World Series champion San Francisco.
Wood, who has nine strikeouts in 7-2/3 innings of work, will have his hands full in challenging New York's Matt Harvey, but I'm confident he'll outduel another young prospect.
Doubleheaders are never easy, especially when there is a big discrepancy between teams, and the better of the two is at home.
Wood is used to starting, as he started in hiis first 10 appearances for Double-A Mississippi this season, going 4-2 with a 1.26 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 57 innings. Wood made his last start for Mississippi on May 25.
This is a big step up - from Mississippi to the Mets - but I'll take my chances.
2* ATLANTA
BRAD WILTON
Tonight's comp play winner is the Blue Jays on the Run Line over the Rockies.
It took until June, but the Jays are finally playing the way the experts thought they would play at the start of the season. Toronto has won a season-high 6 in a row, and 10 of 13 overall, as they host the Rockies once again tonight. All 6 of the wins during their current streak have come by 2 runs or more, including last night's 2-0 win in the series opener.
The Rockies are on a 2-4 slide their last 6 games, and I sure do not trust starter Jeff Francis to get Colorado back on track, especially when you consider the southpaw has lost 4 of his 6 decisions for the year, and still owns an ERA that is close to 6.
Esmil Rogers has been solid in the rotation over his last 2 June starts, allowing just 2 runs in 11 innings of work. If Rogers can hold down the fort for 5 or 6 quality innings, I see no reason the hot-swinging Blue Jays cannot open a lead on Francis and take this one by at least 2 runs again tonight.
Run Line release on the Jays.
4* TORONTO -1.5
GoodFella
Kansas City +105
We cashed a (2*) on KC last night, and I am going right back to the "streaking" Royals tonight. Of course these Indians are "streaking" in the wrong direction, and they are sending out big time hit or miss SP Ubaldo Jiminez tonight. KC sends out Santana, and he has been fantastic for these Royals. He has already tossed a gem vs these Indians this season, and add on the fact that the slumping Tribe has 2 very important pieces of their lineup out in Swisher and Cabrera, and of course they are w/out their closer Perez as well. Simply riding the HOT team playing with extreme confidence and a defnite bullpen edge as well as a SP edge IMO. I expect Santana to "limit" the Tribe and out pitch Ubaldo and hand the ball over to the Royals very solid back end of their bullpen.
Joseph D'Amico
St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +119
The Cards own the best record in the MLB at 45-25 while the Cubs are 16 Games Back in 4th place in the Central at 28-40. The powerful St. Louis offense averages 5.04 RPG and boasts a Team BA of .276. Molina, Carpenter, Craig, and Beltran are all hitting over .300. Chicago's lineup posts a full run less per contest at 4.01 RPG, batting just .241. Schierholtz is the only everyday batter near .300. Adam Wainwright leads the NL at 10-3 and the RH has 97 K's with only 9 Walks. The veteran has won 5 straight starts. He gets run support as well, as the Cardinals have outscored opponents 77-33 when he starts this season. The Cubs have Jeff Samardzija at the bump. The RH is 3-7 and has allowed 9 ER's on 18 hits in his L2 outings alone. The Cubs are 0-5 their L5 games played at the Cardinals and 18-39 their L57 games played vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 52-25 their L77 games played at home and 7-1 in Wainwright's L8 starts against the NL Central. This is a no-brainer. I lean towards the Cardinals on the RUN LINE.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee -106 over HOUSTON
Without question the most undervalued team in the majors are these Brewers. Loaded with talent from top to bottom, it just doesn’t make sense that the Crew own the third worst record in MLB. The first four hitters in the Brewers lineup are batting .301, .331, .319 and .281 respectively and none of those are named Ryan Braun. Jonathan Lucroy usually bats fifth or sixth and is hitting .271 and already has six jacks and 37 RBI’s. Also keep your eye on 2B Scooter Gennett. He and SS Jean Segura will at some point form a deadly up-the-middle duo that could quickly become the best in baseball. Gennett is hitting just .214 but don’t let that fool you, as this kid is patient and has made great contact but has hit the ball right at people. In any event, the Brewers are going to offer up some outstanding value in certain spots because of their poor record and it begins here with Alfredo Figaro. Figaro has been one of the more skilled starters in the game with the bases empty, showing elite command and a pronounced ground ball tilt of 56%. An inflated 29% hr/f with the bases empty has resulted in him giving up an inordinate number of solo jacks. His skills with runners on base have been really good too and his command gets even better. Figaro has 37 K’s and just seven walks in 47 innings. His average fastball velocity is sitting at 95.3 mph, the highest fastball velocity of any SP not named Strasburg or Harvey. The window for buying low on Figaro is closing quickly and the time to buy aggressively is right now.
Jordan Lyles is coming off the best start of his career versus Seattle, where he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out 10. That’s nice but this isn’t Seattle at Safeco. At home, Lyles has a BAA of .300 and an ERA of 5.00. This start will mark his seventh start against the Brewers, who are a former division rival. In 35 IP against them, he is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA with an xERA of 4.92. This is a classic case of buying low and selling high because it is of our humble opinion that the Brewers should be about -170 chalk here, making this the best play of the day.
CINCINNATI -1½ +119 over Pittsburgh
How can this one turn out any other way with Charlie Morton opposing Mat Latos? Latos could have been the poster-boy for park effects. With two stellar seasons in pitcher-friendly San Diego, Latos was traded to homeriffic Cincinnati before the 2012 season. But as we sometimes forget, elite skills don’t care about a park’s dimensions. The consistency of Latos’ three-year run puts him at the edge of the NL’s upper tier starting pitchers. Overall Lato’s groundballs are on the climb, his walks are decreasing each year (earlier this season, Latos went a stretch of five straight starts with less than 2 BB) and his strikeout rate is virtually the same, pushing his command to new heights. 14 starts into 2013 and Mat Latos has proven to be as reliable and consistent as any pitcher in the game. Latos has faced the Pirates five times in the last two seasons, with four of those resulting in pure gems. In his career, he has faced them eight times, where he is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 51 IP. The Pirates have really been gripping the bats tight, as they have a .234 BA in the month of June.
Charlie Morton is making just his second MLB start of the season, due to last June's Tommy John surgery. He did make four starts at Indianapolis (Triple-AAA) prior to being called up, in which he walked 10 batters in 19 innings. In his forst start this year at home, Morton went five innings against the Giants and allowed seven hits and four runs in a 10-0 loss. He has pitched against the Reds 12 times in his career, going 4-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Now making just his second start in the past 369 days and not having the luxury of pitching in a pitcher’s park, Charlie Morton is likely to get blown up here.
Kansas City +106 over CLEVELAND
It may surprise you to learn that the Royals have won 11 of their past 13 games and we’ll step in and ride this hot team here with Earvin Santana throwing. Santana is having a great year and it comes with full skills support. Santana has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.4% in 2012 to 12.9% this year. This after he posted a 21/4 K/BB in 23 IP during spring training. Santana has elite control (13 BB in 92 IP) a good strikeout rate and a strong groundball tilt of 49%. Santana’s deadly slider and his ability to hit the strike zone with all of his pitches make him extremely difficult to face. Over his last three starts, Santana is 2-0 with an 0.83 ERA and his chances of thriving again tonight are much better than that of his mound opponent.
Ubaldo Jimenez has shown flashes from his Colorado ace days at times this season. His skills vs. LH bats have been some of the best in the game. However, the Royals will have at least six RH bats in the lineup tonight so before you speculate on a re-birth, note that his control has been horrible vs. RH bats, making Jimenez a big risk. Jiminez has walked 34 batters in 68 frames and has an xERA of 4.63. He also has a troublesome 1.37 WHIP but a high strand rate over the past month has kept his troubles hidden. Also note that Jiminez has been terrible at home in six starts with a 2-3 record, 17 walks issued and a 7.53 ERA over 28 innings. Wrong side favored.
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +120 over Seattle
Jeremy Bonderman is coming off back-to-back starts in which he allowed a meager 6 hits and one earned run over 14 innings. However, both those starts came at home against Houston and a then struggling Yankees squad. His good results over those two games are a product of Safeco Field and nothing else. Bonderman has not regained the form that made him an average pitcher with the Tigers a few years back and he’s not going to thrive on the road like he did at home. In his first start of the year at Target Field, Bonderman was hammered for nine hits and seven runs in 4.2 frames and you can expect something similar here. Bonderman missed all of 2010 and 2011. He’s a two-pitch pitcher now with a fastball and slider and he rarely misses a bat. The 30-year-old put up less-than-impressive numbers at Triple-A this year, with a 4.52 ERA and only 33 K’s in 63.2 innings to go along with an ugly 1.49 WHIP. Remember, that is at Triple-A. With that kind of strikeout rate, the most likely scenario here is that Bonderman is torched again, just like he was in his only other road start.
The Angels are heating up again with four wins in five games and having scored five runs or more in all five games. In total, the Halos have scored 36 times over their past five ball games and have hit .370 over that span. Joe Blanton’s surface stats aren’t pretty with just one win and 10 losses to go along with a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. However, he’s precisely the reason why we buy skills and not stats. Blanton has elite control with just 14 walks in 77 frames. He has a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 47%/31% and his strikeout rate is slightly above average too. In fact, over his last two starts, Blanton has walked two and struck out 17 over 13 frames. The culprit has been Blanton’s extremely unlucky 38% hit rate and 65% strand rate. Those rates will normalize and Blanton’s ERA will come way down. With just one win in 13 starts and pure bad luck, expect the Angels to be a little extra jacked up here in support of Blanton to get him that second elusive win. The Angels hung an 11 on the M’s last night. Against Bonderman, the Angels are very likely to put up another crooked number.