SPORTS WAGERS
San Antonio/MIAMI Under 191
After three straight high-scoring affairs in San Antonio, the scene now shifts back to South Beach, where the NBA season will conclude this week. The previous two games of this back-and-forth series saw scores that reached a combined 202 points for Game 4 and an incredible 218 for Game 5. Because of this, the number is now inflated, giving us a good under opportunity. In case anyone forgot, the first two games in Miami were slower-paced games than what transpired in San Antonio. In Game 1, both teams, while getting a feel for each other, put up only 180 points, and then followed that with 187 points in Game 2 as the Heat blew out the Spurs. Even though these teams are definitely more familiar with one another and their tendencies, there stands to be some adjustments that make a slower pace more likely for this one.
For starters, Miami will most likely remove Mike Miller from the starting line-up and insert either Udonis Haslem or Chris Anderson in his place. Miller has been held scoreless in 46 minutes of game-time in the past two games, and Spoelstra will like look for production elsewhere. The obvious choice is either Haslem or Anderson, which would result in Tiago Splitter and/or Boris Diaw playing more minutes. This chess-match will naturally result in a slower-paced game as the Heat may have to end up going away from their small-ball philosophy, which the Spurs seemingly found an answer to in Game 5 by inserting Manu Ginobili into the line-up. It is unreasonable to expect the Spurs to shoot 60% again from the field as they head back to Miami. On the defensive end is where San Antonio is going to win a game in Miami, and that starts by continuing to force LeBron and Wade into shooting jump shots, and having Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green doing their best at disrupting the transition play of the league’s most destructive force in the open court. Green and Leonard have done an excellent job all series long playing perimeter defense, and that should continue even with the series going back to Miami.
Incidentally, we are sticking by our series prediction of the Spurs winning, and would not recommend hedging since there is no value in doing so.
CHRIS JORDAN
My free winner for tonight is on the New York Mets, getting it done in the second game of their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves. And make note, I want you listing Zack Wheeler only, as he's the focal point tonight at Turner Field.
The Mets' top pitching prospect, the right-hander is making his long-awaited debut tonight after making 13 starts right here at Triple-A Las Vegas. For the 51s, the fiery northpaw went 4-2 with a 3.93 ERA, 73 strikeouts and 27 walks over 68-2/3 innings.
I ran across an interesting stat, even though I still like watching - and favoring - pichers making their major league debut - those doing so at Turner Field are 0-7 with three no-decisions.
Wheeler could be the first to score a win, and I see him pitching well enough to keep the Mets in it long enough.
Take the Mets and list Wheeler.
2♦ N.Y. METS
Joe Gavazzi
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play: Under 191
As predicted, the Spurs rebounded with a resounding 114-104 Game #5 victory pushing Miami to the brink of elimination. In that game, the Spurs erupted to shoot 60% from the field led by a reborn performance from Ginobili. By this time, all are aware that Miami is 12-0/loss not having lost consecutive games since January 8th. That includes 6-0 SU, ATS in the Playoff with their average margin of victory by 20 PPG in games where they have allowed only 85 PPG. In addition, the zigzag (loser of the previous game covers in the next game) is now on a 10-0 ATS run in Miami games. Miami may get the win but the Spurs proved here in Game #1 that they are capable of winning on this floor. We are holding a series play on San Antonio at +230. Just a small opinion on the underdog Spurs tonight if you are not holding series play. But our stronger play is on UNDER 191 as the embarrassed Miami defense is the strongest unit on the floor in this home court elimination game. Top play on the UNDER 191.
Nelly
Houston Astros + over Milwaukee Brewers
This interleague series lacks some panache as these teams were division foes last year but despite the poor overall record Houston is a team showing some promise. The Astros have won four of the last five and the pitching for Houston has shown great improvement, allowing four or fewer runs in nine of the last 10 games. With eight straight starts of at least six innings the bullpen is in great shape entering this series and Jordan Lyles has been doing his part with a quality start in four of his last five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in six straight outings. His ERA is down to 3.48 and if not for one rough start against Texas he would have very strong numbers for the year. Milwaukee is just 7-15 in the last 23 road games despite being favored in this matchup and starter Alfredo Figaro is a bit of wild card. He threw seven scoreless innings in his last start but the caveat is that outing came in Miami against the worst offense in baseball. Houston strikes out a lot but Figaro has not been producing a high strikeout rate and he has allowed four runs in two of his three starts this season as his overall numbers are greatly aided by strong bullpen showings. The Milwaukee bullpen has been good but it has been a heavily worked unit and the Milwaukee offense lacks punch right now with Ryan Braun on the DL. On the year the Brewers are batting just .242 while scoring just 3.6 runs per game vs. right-handed pitchers on the road as the overall statistics are a bit inflated with the high scoring at Miller Park. Milwaukee is only two games better than Houston in the win column despite the reputations of these teams and the Astros are starting to look like a much more respectable team.
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES (-110) over LA Dodgers
The LA Dodgers continue to plod along and play uninspiring baseball and have really struggled all season against the better teams in the league, losing more than 15 units with a 15-27 record vs. winning teams. We get some real value with the line here tonight since the Dodgers are sending Hyun-jin Ryu to the hill. The South Korean is 6-2 2.85 ERA, but he has not been nearly effective on the road (4.21 ERA) as he has been at home (1.88 ERA). The Yankees have also gone 14-7 this season against southpaws and have the much better bullpen in this match-up. Lay the short number with the Yankees at home.
Bob Balfe
Spurs +7.5
I think the Heat will win this game, but they really are not worthy to be 7.5 points favorites. The Spurs have been the much better team in this series and I understand that the winner in every game so far has blown out the other team, but I think we are going to see a lower scoring type game today. Put it this way. The winner of this game will win the championship. If the Spurs win they obviously win, but if Miami wins and forces a game 7 there is no way we can possibly go against Lebron James who is the poster boy of the NBA in a Game 7. To be honest I don’t think James is ready to be placed in the same sentence as Kobe and Jordan, but he has been invested in by so many people that there is no turning back now. I am looking for a tight game with the Spurs covering. As a handicapper there are some series that are just not worth betting. This is one of them. I know it is not the best thing to say, but I give you all my complete honesty. You don’t have to wager on a game just because it’s a big one. A game is just a game be it Game 7 of the NBA Finals or Week 4 in the NFL. Take the Spurs.
A’s +160 over Rangers
Parker/DarvishThis is the lowest I have seen Darvish listed at in a while. He is a great pitcher for sure, but his team is struggling to get him runs and I am pretty sure the A’s give him more trouble than any other team in baseball. Jarrod Parker has been Darvish like in his last three starts and I think we will see a fine pitchers duel today. This is a good price for the A’s who are able to win games against Texas in this fashion. Oakland can hit the ball well and I see a lot of value in this line. Take Oakland.