DUNKEL INDEX
NBA
Oklahoma City at Miami
The Thunder look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 Tuesday games. Oklahoma City is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+3 1/2)
Game 507-508: Oklahoma City at Miami (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 128.323; Miami 129.725
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+3 1/2); Under
Ben Burns
Sweden @ France
PICK: Over 2.5
I won with the French in their last game, a 2-0 victory over Ukraine. Another victory here won't surprise. France (1-0-1) is arguably the most talented team in Group D; Sweden (0-2) is arguably the least. However, given the situation, I feel that the 'over' is providing us with even better value.
Regardless of what happens here, Sweden knows it will be going home. With zero points through two games, the Swedes can't overtake either England or France, both who currently have four. Knowing that, the Swedes may throw caution to the wind a little. They have no pressure on them and scoring goals and salvaging some pride should be a priority. The Swedish offense has been able to score, tallying three goals thus far.
Stopping goals has been an entirely different matter, however. Through two games, the Swedes have allowed a whopping five scores. Even Ukraine managed two against them - and Ukraine barely got a chance against France. Clearly, this is a suspect defense.
France has scored just three goals thus far - but easily could have scored more. They dominated against England but managed only one. They were even more dominant against Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian goalie made some key saves while the French also rang another shot off the post. Facing this porous Swedish defense and knowing they want to better England's score against Ukraine to avoid meeting Spain next game, the English should find the net of the back, if not a few times. Consider the Over 2.5 goals option.
Jesse Schule
Sweden @ France
PICK: France
To say that France is on a roll would be an understatement of epic proportions. Les Bleus have not lost in their last 22 international competitions, and a win here today could seal up first place in their group, allowing them to advance to the semi-finals.
They dominated play in their first match of the tournament against rivals England, only allowing a single shot on their own goal, while managing 15 attempts toward the English goal. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw against England, however they did look dangerous in their second match defeating the Ukraine 2-0.
Sweden will come into this final match of the group stages with nothing to play for, after losing both their first two matches versus the Ukraine and England, they can no longer qualify. They showed a lot of heart in their match versus England, battling back to take the lead in the second half, only to give up a late goal and go on to lose.
They will be in tough against the French, as this is a team with a lot more quality than the two teams they have faced previously. This isn't the best Sweden side we have seen in recent years. While the Swedes have often managed to compete against Europe's best teams in the past, they are simply lacking the quality to compete with teams like France and England.
I don't expect the Swedes to manage to get on the board against the French in this one, and with France needing a victory in order to secure first place in the group, I don't think the French will disappoint.
Jim Feist
Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
Take: Miami Marlins
Mark Buehrle's the kind of veteran lefty who doesn't walk anyone who can give the patient Red Sox trouble. He's already faced them this season and threw a 5-hitter over 7 innings with only one walk (2.57 ERA). Miami has a winning road record and the Marlins are 14-5 in their last 19 road games. The Marlins are also 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Last place Boston comes home from a road trip, where they have a losing record, and the Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Play the Marlins.
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Giants and Angels resume their three game Interleague series in Anaheim Tuesday evening where Barry Zito matches serves with C. J. Wilson. Zito has always enjoyed hurling in this park where he stands 5-1 with a sparkling 0.61 ERA in his last team starts. With Zito 6-3 in his last nine team starts during June, look for Wilson to fall to 0-2 in his career team starts against the Halos here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
Were not dying to back the Padres here tonight. However Texas fits a Nasty road system that plays against road favorites off a 1 run road favored win if the total was 8 or less and they scored 2 or less run son 5 or more hits with 5 or more men left on base, if the total is 8 or less tonight and their opponent is off a 1 run home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. All road teams in this system are 5-14 straight up and 2-8 as a road favorite the last 9 seasons. Texas has Feldman going and he has been hideous as they have lost all 3 of his road starts as he brings an 11.92 road era with him. The Padres counter with Volquez and he has a nice 3.17 home era. Look for San Diego to emerge with the win.
David Chan
Indiana @ Connecticut
PICK: Over 165
The Indiana Fever (5-3) invade Connecticut to take on the Sun (8-2) on Tuesday night.
Both teams have been putting the "rock in the hole" this season:
Indiana has seen the total go "over" the number in six of eight thus far, while Connecticut has seen it sail above the number in six of ten.
On June 5th, Connecticut won in Indiana 89-81, the total sailing above the posted number of 162.5 in that one.
Connecticut star Tina Charles is coming off her best performance of the year, pouring in 23 points while grabbing 22 rebounds in her team's 75-73 win over Atlanta on Sunday. It was Charles' seventh double-double of the year (she's third in the league in scoring overall at 20.8 PPG).
The Fever snapped a three-game slide on Saturday, hammering Chicago 84-70; Jessica Davenport led the charge with 19 points.
These two teams tango again on Thursday in Indianapolis, and as a result, I expect to once again see a fast-paced, high-scoring shootout; consider a second look at the "over" in this contest!
Bryan Power
Miami @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
After setting a record for the winningest month in franchise history in May, June has been an unmitigated disaster for the Miami Marlins, losers of 10 of 12. The club has been shut out in each of its previous two losses, including 3-0 on Sunday to the Tampa Bay Rays. They face another AL East opponent to start the week in Boston, who just took two of three from the Marlins last week. With a struggling Mark Buehrle on the mound facing a lineup averaging 5.2 runs per game vs. southpaws, I feel the Red Sox are the smart play here.
Miami is now just 9-34 the last two seasons in the month of June. Buehrle has lost three consecutive starts, though he pitched well in two of them. The exception was the lone road start, a 6-4 loss to Philadelphia where he allowed all four runs (in just five innings) on 11 hits. Having pitched for so long in the American League (White Sox) Buehrle has faced Boston many times and has a 4.39 ERA in his last 18 starts against them.
Fortunately for Boston, they have a much hotter pitcher going in Clay Buchholz, who has won his last three starts while posting a 1.12 ERA over that span. He just beat Buerhle on June 12th, allowing just one run over seven innings in Miami. Look for this to be a repeat of that result!
Chris Elliott
Miami @ Boston
PICK: Miami
The Miami Marlins (33-33) send Mark Buehrle to the hill Tuesday to take on the Boston Red Sox (33-33) and Clay Buchholz. These 2 chuckers met exactly one week ago Tuesday in Miami where both pitchers threw gems with the Red Sox and Buchholz squeezing out a 2-1 victory.
Buehrle on the season has a record of 5-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .258 BAA. He has been a hard luck pitcher in the win/loss column but has compiled some decent stats along the way. Buehrle has been a big game pitcher throughout his career, with a record of 166-126, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .273 BAA, he knows what it takes to win. He has totalled 28 complete games, 8 shut outs and 1 perfect game in his fine career.
Buchholz has been the opposite of Buehrle, with a record of 7-2, 5.38 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .289 BAA he has compiled a stellar record with sub par stats. He has been lights out his last 3 starts with 3 straight victories and 3 earned runs in 24 innings, good for an ERA of 1.12. His only start against Miami was last week.
The Marlins have been scuffling in June with a record of 4-11 after a red hot May that saw the team put up a record of 21-8. The Red Sox started slow and remain in the basement of the AL East, 8 games back, despite being .500 on the season. I expect this to be a tight scoring affair, much like last weeks matchup. With the Marlins +136, take the Juicy Dog to pull out the victory in this one and hop on the VALUE TRAIN! Take the Miami Marlins to win.
Dave Cokin
Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox
Ever since Clay Buchholz altered the grip on his changeup, he has been lights out and looking like he did in 2010. I've been riding Buchholz lately, so I'm willing to pay a price with him tonight. Mark Buehrle can be tough, but I like the Red Sox to top the Marlins tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI -3½ over Oklahoma City
This one is largely about the presence of Chris Bosh and the difference he can make in favour of the Heat. Miami was 42-15 in the regular season when Bosh played but 4-5 when he didn't. They're 6-1 in the playoffs when Bosh plays at least 20 minutes and 6-5 the rest of the time. Combine the two and they're 48-16 with Bosh in the lineup and 10-10 without him. As long as they have Bosh, you have to like their odds. Oklahoma City faced a higher level of competition than the Heat did in the postseason but this difference has been grossly overblown. If you look at the quality of the opponents rather than the names on their jerseys, their entire advantage came in the conference finals. Before that, Miami foes Indiana and New York combined for more wins and a far better scoring margin than the Lakers and Mavs. Miami has been dominant when fully intact, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Heat have six double-digit wins in the seven playoff games that Bosh played at least 20 minutes. The Thunder have four this entire postseason. This is the game that Miami can put the proverbial nail in the Thunder’s coffin and they smell blood. Play: Miami -3½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -103 over PITTSBURGH
Kevin Correia is not looking forward to this start. This guy is about as fragile as a pitcher can be after going 0-6 with a 7.82 ERA in his last nine games at PNC Park. It’s no mystery as to why either. Correia has issued 21 walks and struck out a measly 25 hitters in 69 innings. At the moment, things don’t look to bright for the Pirates’ chucker. Meanwhile, rookie lefthander Scott Diamond has the skills to support his low 2.13 ERA. He won’t sustain that ERA but it’s unlikely to take a upward spike either as he has an elite 61% groundball rate and outstanding control that’s seen him walk just six batters in 51 frames. The Pirates have never seen Diamond and they’re hitting just .232 against southpaws this season. Correia will rarely be in this price range moving and we’re not about to pass it up. Play: Minnesota -101 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
ARIZONA -1½ +134 over Seattle
The Mariners will stretch out Erasmo Ramirez for the second time in five days after appearing in seven games in relief. He was banged around in pitcher friendly San Diego for eight hits and six runs in just five innings or work. He now moves to a much tougher venue on pitchers. Ramirez pitches to contact, he has an xERA of 4.87 and at the age of 22 and getting rocked in his first start, chances are the D-Backs will get to him too. Arizona has scored 28 times over its past four home games which includes last night’s 7-1 win. Daniel Hudson is so much better than his current 5.67 ERA suggests. After being placed on the DL on April 18, the D-Backs have won his last four starts. He was sharp in three of them and was especially sharp in his last start in Texas in which he allowed just five hits in seven innings. In that last game in Arlington, Hudson struck out seven and walked none. This is a guy that went 16-12 last season with a 3.67 ERA in 222 innings at a tough home park. That DL stint appears to have served him well, as he’s rounding back into form. Hudson and the Snakes are a solid investment. Play: Arizona -1½ +134 (Risking 2 units).
Stephen Nover
St Louis cardinals +140
The Tigers are medium-size favorites because they are home, playing better and Justin Verlander is pitching.
I get it. But I also get that the Cardinals have a better record than Detroit, have outscored the Tigers by 37 runs and are starting Lance Lynn.
Lynn doesn't have any Cy Young and MVP trophies to show off like Verlander, but this is a breakout season for him. Lynn has been just as good - if not even better - than Verlander. Lynn's ERA is 2.42. Verlander's ERA is 2.66.
Yes, Verlander has achieved great statistics over a prolonged period of time. But so far this season, Lynn has been right there with Verlander. Lynn has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts.
The Cardinals are 7-2 on the road with Lynn pitching. Verlander has had great success when pitching against National League teams with the exception of St. Louis. He is 2-3 with a 5.59 ERA in five starts versus the Cardinals.
There's too much value in this number not to back Lynn and St. Louis.
Tony George
Braves / Yankees Under 8.5 & Yankees -145
Two solid pitchers here and also Atlanta offense is in the crapper right now. I see a 2-1 or 3-2 type game here. VERY Cheap Number for the hometown Yanks with Kuroda on the hill with a 1.80 ERA his last 3 starts and Tim Hudson no slouch for the Braves either. Bottom line is Hudson will get more run support. Braves 5-0 on Unders last 5 games! Play the Under and the Yankees
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Miami / Oklahoma City Over 192: This game will be all about tempo. Miami did have the extra game to rest a bit between games 2 and 3 and they were able to get the tempo at their pace, but now they have had just 1 day to rest their tired legs and that should allow this Thunder team to get the game more at their pace. Miami is not a running team but they still average 100 ppg at home on the year, plus they have averaged 97 ppg on 1 days rest this year. Miami has played great defense this year as they have allowed just 88.9 ppg at home and 90.8 ppg on 1 days rest, but the Thunder does average 100.1 ppg on the road and 103.2 ppg on 1 days rest. Defensively the Thunder played well in Game 3, but they still have allowed 97.8 ppg on the road and 97.6 ppg on 1 days rest and should have problems with a heat team that can score on this floor. Thunder games on 1 days rest have averaged 200.2 ppg on the year and In a faster paced game this one should approach that number. Also should be another close game and that could me FT's at the end or even OT. I look for 195+ in this one.