Lenny Del Genio
Rangers @ Padres
PICK: Over 7.5
This is a low number for a high scoring Rangers team that is off a 2-1 victory last night here in San Diego. We look for far more runs to be scored this evening on both sides. Scott Feldman is going for the road team and that usually means bad things for the contingent from Arlington. Feldman remains winless in seven starts has been particularly brutal on the road where he's 0-3 with a 11.92 ERA. In three of his previous four starts, the opposing team has scored 10 or more runs and 38 runs total in the four starts. San Diego is 13-3 Over this season after being held to 1 run or less in its previous game. Last time in this spot, they scored six runs for Edinson Volquez, who gets the baseball again tonight. Volquez allowed six runs in a loss to Milwaukee the start before that and could be in trouble facing a Texas lineup averaging 5.2 runs per game vs. righties.
Joe D'Amico
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox
Boston won their L2 to raise their record to 33-33. Injuries have hurt the Red Sox, but they are starting to hit the ball these days. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG (averaging 5.00), Team BA (.267), OPS (.764), and HRs (74). Ortiz leads the team with a .311 BA, a .598 Slugging %, 75 hits, 16 HRs, and 43 RBIs. The Sox pitchers have come alive. Over their L11 games, they've only yielded more than 4 runs just once. Clay Buchholz starts today. The RH is 7-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 3-0 his L3 starts, and got a win against Miami, June 12th. He faces a Marlins squad that lost 10 of their L12, never topping 4 runs in a game. They average a dismal 3.62 RPG on a .237 Team BA. They lack consistency and power. Today, Mark Buehrle goes to the bump. The LH is 5-7 overall, 2-4 on the road, winless in his L3 starts, and just took a loss by Boston last week. The Marlins are 2-6 their L8 games played vs. the Red Sox, 2-7 their L9 games following a loss, and 17-40 their L57 games played as a 'dog of 110-150. The Red Sox are 5-2 their L7 games played vs. LH starters, 92-42 their L134 Interleague games, and 4-0 in Buchholz L4 Interleague starts. Take Boston.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tampa Bay -138 over WASHINGTON: in his last outing, David Price ran into a very hot Mets offense and he allowed 7 ER's in 5 innings in that game, but prior to the Met game he was pitching very well. In the four games leading up to the Met debacle, David had 2-1 record with a 1.02 ERA, allowing 1 ER or less in all 4 starts. Now that wasn't vs the offensive dregs of MLB as he faced the Yanks, Baltimore, Boston and Atlanta during that stretch, with the Yanks and Boston games being on the road. I expect a solid bounceback start for price in this one, especially vs a Washington team that has averaged just 3.6 rpg at home overall, including averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 at home. This is not a good offense and Price should keep them shut down tonight. on the other side we have C. Wang (Can't believe he's still around) and i like fading this guy. Wang did a decent job for this team in his 1 game out of the pen, but in his 3 starts, not so good. Wang is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA in his 3 starts this nyear, plus he has a very high 2.09 WHIP in those starts as well. Seems like it has been a tale of two careers for Wang, as he went 54-20 with a 3.79 ERA in his first 4 years in the league, but has since gone 6-11 with a 6.42 era in his last 3 years. Washington is reeling a bit right now and tampa Should take advantage with a solid road win tonight.
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-115) over Colorado: Plain and simple, the Phils need to put a hurtin on a team to relieve the pressure and they should be able to do that tonight. The Rockies come in just 1-10 in their last 11 games and each on of those losses were by at least 2 runs. Their pitching has been horrid over that stretch, allowing 84 runs (7.63 rpg), while their starters come in with a 9.89 ERA in their last 10 games. Tonight's starter, Josh Outman has just v3 starts on the year and he has been very bad in his last 2 starts, allowing 10 ER's in just 8 innings of work. In his lone road start he allowed 5 ER's nin just 3 innings at Arizona and that now gives him a 1-4 mark with a 6.35 ERA in his last 7 road starts dating back to last year. Cole Hamels comes in struggling a bit, but he really needs to start putting together some solid efforts or he may not be getting that big free agency payday at the end of the year. Cole is 9-3 overall with a 3.34 ERA this year, and at home he is 4-3 with a 3.26. Cole has really pitched well at night in his career, going 60-36 with a 3.12 ERA, compared to a 23-21 mark with a 3.96 ERA in day starts. This year has gone a perfect 5-0 in his night starts, while the Phils have gone 6-0 as a team in his night starts and they have outscored those opponents by 2.83 rpg. Philly needs this one bad and they have the right pitching matchup to get it done. The Rockies have been outscored 79-32 in their last 10 losses and that has me expecting a very easy win by the Phils tonight.
More later
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -135
Tampa Bay has the edge on the mound with David Price, who's 8-4 with an ERA of 3.01 through 13 starts. Washington's Wang has struggled his way through 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 interleague road games and 20-6 in Price's last 26 starts as a road favorite. The Nats have lost 4 in a row at home, and I expect the slide to continue as they go up against one of the best lefties in baseball.
Steve Janus
Tampa Bay Rays -136
I think the Rays are favored for good reason at Washington tonight. Tampa will send out David Price against Chien-Ming Wang, which right away is a huge advantage for the Rays.
Don't be scared off by the fact that Price allowed seven runs on nine hits in just five innings against the Mets in his last start. That actually makes me like the play even more, as Price is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He is going to be extremely motivated to come out and redeem himself against the Nationals.
Price's lost to the Mets was just his second all season when he has taken the mound in a night game. Even with the horrible performance, he is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 starts at night.
The Nationals are searching for answers after getting swept by the Yankees over the weekend. A series in which they scored just six runs. With an offense that isn't hitting the ball, it's going to be extremely hard for Washington to win without a big time performance from Wang. I'll take my chances on that not happening. Wang is just 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 2.094 WHIP in three starts this season and has a career ERA of 4.14 in 14 starts vs the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 20-6 in Prices last 26 starts as a road favorite, 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 7-0 in their last 7 interleague road games.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -137
The Yankees haven't just won 10 in a row, they have won 10 in a row in impressive fashion with those wins coming by an average of 3.1 runs. Expect the Yanks to keep right on rolling against a struggling Atlanta club that has dropped 7 of its last 8.
First off, the Braves haven't had much luck against the Yankees. They have lost 16 of the last 21 meetings overall and 7 of the last 10 in New York.
Secondly, Hudson has been pretty good but Kuroda has been better. The Atlanta right-hander has a 3.90 ERA while the New York righty has a 3.43 ERA. Kuroda's 2.23 lifetime ERA against the Braves is also better than Hudson's 3.46 career ERA versus New York.
The Braves are 4-9 in Hudson's last 13 starts as a road underdog and 5-17 in his last 22 interleague starts. We'll take the Yankees.
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees -138
Tim Hudson before his win vs. the Rays posted a 7.71 ERA in his last 10 road games vs. AL teams. The Braves are 5-17 in his last 22 in inter league play overall. Hiroki Kuroda meanwhile has an ERA under 3 in his career vs. the Braves. Yankees are red hot right now and the Braves have just fallen a bit now 23rd with a .685 OPS in June. I think that continues here tonight as the Yankees continue to flex their pitching muscles. Kuroda posts a solid ERA at home and is backed by the Yankees 2nd ranked bullpen 2.63 on the year vs. the Braves who have a 3.86 ERA and are ranked 20th.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +112
The Los Angeles Angels have won 18 of their last 25 games since May 22nd to get to 36-32 on the season. They have only lost back-to-back once during this stretch, so this has been a very resilient team. I'll back them on the run line for that reason, and for having such a huge edge on the mound tonight.
C.J. Wilson is having a tremendous year, going 7-4 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The left-hander has been virtually untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.77 ERA in his last five starts, and the Angels are a perfect 5-0 in those five contests.
Barry Zito has been respectable this season, going 5-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 13 starts. However, the washed up left-hander has come back down to reality of late. Zito is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last two starts, allowing nine earned runs, four homers and 19 base runners over 11 innings.
Wilson's teams are 17-3 in his last 20 home starts when playing against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 2-9 in Zito's last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 43-17 in their last 60 vs. National League West opponents. Bet the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.
Andrew Lange
Cubs / White Sox Over 8.5
With yesterday's wind pattern (right-to-left and gusty) we saw seven home runs and 15 runs at Chicago's Cellular Field. With a similar forecast projected for tonight, I think we can expect more than a few balls to leave the yard. Jake Peavy has allowed a modest eight home runs in nearly 90 innings – a very fortunate stat considering his fly ball rate is around 67%. For a pitcher to be that heavy towards the fly ball, his HR/FB rate should be well north of 10% instead of 6.8%. His rate is slightly higher at home (9.4%) but I still feel that he's going to have issues pitching in this park with temperatures on the rise and his innings starting to mount. Chicago's Travis Wood hasn't been very impressive this year (4.58 ERA) despite a handful of favorable matchups (at Minnesota, at San Francisco, vs. San Diego, at Houston). This may be his most difficult start of the season as the White Sox like to hit the long ball, especially at home (49 in 35 games). The Cubs offense isn't much to get excited about but the weather should help this game get up and over.
MLB Predictions
Minnesota Twins +104
The Twins managed to win on Sunday in 15 innings to avoid the sweep against the Brewers. Minnesota is now 26-39 on the season, and 13-17 away from home. Pittsburgh has won two straight after losing 4 in a row and are now 34-31 on the year and 19-11 at home. Tonight the Twins will send Scott Diamond on the mound. I believe this is our third straight start backing Diamond, who is 5-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .270 opponents batting average. His last start he went 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 4 earned runs, which were all scored from two home runs on mistake pitches. Pittsburgh will have Kevin Correia on the mound, who is 2-6 on the year with a 4.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. His last two starts he has combined for 11 innings pitched giving up 18 hits and 7 earned runs against. Correia is 0-6 in his last 9 starts at home dating back to last season. Take note that the Pirates are averaging just 2.87 runs per game at home, while holding opponents to 2.77 against. The Twins are scoring 4.10 runs per game on the road. Minnesota is 5-1 in their lsat 6 games following an off day, and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-2 in Diamond’s last 8 starts overall. The Pirates are just 5-11 in Correia’s last 16 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 home starts. Tonight I think we have a pitching match up that really favors the Twins, and I will hop on them as underdogs. Note that the price has changed since releasing this pick but I still like the Twins up to -110 tonight.
Houston Astros -120
Last night we were on the Royals but Houston walked away with a 9-7 victory when all was said and done. Tonight’s pitching match up sees Luke Hochevar face veteran Wandy Rodriguez. Hochevar is 3-7 with a 6.27 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .300 opponents batting average on the year. Rodriguez is 6-4 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .268 opponents batting average. The Royals are hitting just .239 against lefties as a team on the year. Kansas City is just 2-5 in their last 7 road games, 16-49 in their last 65 road games vs a left handed starter, and 1-8 in their last 9 interleague games vs a southpaw starter. The Royals are also just 7-15 in Hochevar’s last 22 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Houston is 5-0 in their last games as a home favorite, and 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Houston looked like the better team last night, and I think Wandy can shut down the Royals offense. Take the Astros to improve on their 19-14 home record tonight.
Wunderdog
Indiana at Connecticut
Pick: Indiana +4
Grab the underdog Indiana. Indiana is rested with two full days off and has a 5-3 ATS record for the season, including a 2-0 ATS mark as an underdog (winning both times as a road dog, as well). Indiana is fourth in the league in team defense allowing 74.8 points per game and third best from beyond the arc (.386%). The last game Indiana faced a team ahead of it in the standings, Chicago, and blew out the Sky, 84-70. Play on Indiana.
Ross King
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Taken the better pitcher Price over Wang here to get the win and a winning road team the last 3 seasons at 110-86 and as a road favorite of -125 to -150 30-17.Washington has recently struggled as a home dog of pick to +125 currently 1-5.Take Tampa Bay as your freeplay winner who has no room for errors as lead leading Yankees remain on fire and can't afford to let this one slip away.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tampa Bay -138 over WASHINGTON: in his last outing, David Price ran into a very hot Mets offense and he allowed 7 ER's in 5 innings in that game, but prior to the Met game he was pitching very well. In the four games leading up to the Met debacle, David had 2-1 record with a 1.02 ERA, allowing 1 ER or less in all 4 starts. Now that wasn't vs the offensive dregs of MLB as he faced the Yanks, Baltimore, Boston and Atlanta during that stretch, with the Yanks and Boston games being on the road. I expect a solid bounceback start for price in this one, especially vs a Washington team that has averaged just 3.6 rpg at home overall, including averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 at home. This is not a good offense and Price should keep them shut down tonight. on the other side we have C. Wang (Can't believe he's still around) and i like fading this guy. Wang did a decent job for this team in his 1 game out of the pen, but in his 3 starts, not so good. Wang is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA in his 3 starts this nyear, plus he has a very high 2.09 WHIP in those starts as well. Seems like it has been a tale of two careers for Wang, as he went 54-20 with a 3.79 ERA in his first 4 years in the league, but has since gone 6-11 with a 6.42 era in his last 3 years. Washington is reeling a bit right now and tampa Should take advantage with a solid road win tonight.
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-115) over Colorado: Plain and simple, the Phils need to put a hurtin on a team to relieve the pressure and they should be able to do that tonight. The Rockies come in just 1-10 in their last 11 games and each on of those losses were by at least 2 runs. Their pitching has been horrid over that stretch, allowing 84 runs (7.63 rpg), while their starters come in with a 9.89 ERA in their last 10 games. Tonight's starter, Josh Outman has just v3 starts on the year and he has been very bad in his last 2 starts, allowing 10 ER's in just 8 innings of work. In his lone road start he allowed 5 ER's nin just 3 innings at Arizona and that now gives him a 1-4 mark with a 6.35 ERA in his last 7 road starts dating back to last year. Cole Hamels comes in struggling a bit, but he really needs to start putting together some solid efforts or he may not be getting that big free agency payday at the end of the year. Cole is 9-3 overall with a 3.34 ERA this year, and at home he is 4-3 with a 3.26. Cole has really pitched well at night in his career, going 60-36 with a 3.12 ERA, compared to a 23-21 mark with a 3.96 ERA in day starts. This year has gone a perfect 5-0 in his night starts, while the Phils have gone 6-0 as a team in his night starts and they have outscored those opponents by 2.83 rpg. Philly needs this one bad and they have the right pitching matchup to get it done. The Rockies have been outscored 79-32 in their last 10 losses and that has me expecting a very easy win by the Phils tonight.
NY Yanks/ Atlanta Under 8.5: Had this play last night and will come right back with it tonight. The Braves offense has been awful of late as they have scored just 12 runs in their last 7 games and that includes putting up just 8 total runs in 4 games with the Yanks. Speaking of Yanks pitching, they come in with a 2.06 ERA in June and should Hiroki nget into any trouble, a very good NY pen is well rested after CC went the distance last night. Kurodo comes in hot with a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has a nice 2.79 ERA at home on the year, with his home starts averaging just 7.2 rpg. Tim Hudson comes in pitching very good this year, with a 3.90 ERA, while on the road he has a 2.12 ERA, with his road starts averaging just 7.8 rpg. He will be facing a tough Yanks lineup that averages 4.8 rpg on the year, but they also get 51% of their runs from the Long ball and that is not something that Hudson gives up to many of as he has allowed just 1 HR in his last 7 starts and 2 HR's all year. He is a ground ball pitcher and should get some DP's to help us out here. Both teams have been struggling with RISP and with two very good starters on the mound, one team that can't score at all and another with an outstanding bullpen, i will look for this one to struggle to reach 6 runs.
Houston/ Kansas City Under 8: Line movement aside I do like this play. KC has gone 13-4 UNDER this year vs a lefty starter, with those games averaging just 6.9 rpg. The Royals do not hit lefties all that well on the road, hitting just .233 and scoring 3.4 rpg off of them away from home. Wandy Rodriguez did have a tough home start in his last outing, but in he still has a solid 3.33 ERA at home on the year and 3 of his last 4 home starts have failed to put up more than 6 runs. Luke Hochevar has a 4.6i ERA on the road but still his road starts have aveaged just 7.6 rpg and each of his last 4 road starts have put up no more than 6 runs. Houston does average 4.6 rpg at home on the year, but they do come in struggling some, hitting just .220 in their last 10 games. Last night 16 runs were put up on the board, but I feel that tonight both starters will have good showings and this one will reach 6 runs at best.
Rocketman
Miami @ Boston
Play: Miami +135
Miami travels to Boston to take on the Red Sox in Game One of this 3 game series. Boston is 2-6 this year when playing with a day off. Miami is allowing only 3.5 runs per game on the road this year. Boston is scoring only 3.9 runs per game their past seven games overall. Miami is 4-1 last 5 games as a road underdog. Miami is 8-3 last 11 games on the road against a team with a losing home record. Miami is 7-3 last 10 games as an underdog. Miami is 14-6 last 20 road games. Boston is 7-21 last 28 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Boston is 1-5 last 6 games as a home favorite. Boston is 1-6 their last 7 home games. We'll recommend a small play on Miami tonight!