Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday June, 5

Marc Lawrence

Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Blue Jays

When the Blue Jays and White Sox open a three game series at Comiskey Park in Chicago Tuesday evening Toronto will send Ricky Romero to the mound against Phillip Humber knowing Romero is 3-0 in his three career team starts in this series. On the flip side, Humber continues to struggle since tossing his perfect game earlier this season and is just 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA at home this season. With that look for Humber to fall to 0-2 at home in his career against the Blue Jays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

The Rockies won the series opener last night but we will go against them again here. After a dreadful 5-17 run, the Rockies bounced back with a strong homestand, going 6-1 but the road has not been kind this season as they are 9-15 on the highway. Both pitching and hitting have been horrendous as Colorado is hitting .234 while the team ERA is 4.34, both of which are in the bottom third in all of baseball. The Rockies are 28-55 in their last 83 games as road underdogs of +150 or less. Arizona had gained a little momentum prior to last night but a shutout was not what it was expecting. The Diamondbacks had won 24 of the previous 33 home meetings with the Rockies before Monday but they are in a good place here to bounce back in the second game of a nine-game homestand. Last night was the first time this season Arizona has been shut out and it has bounced back strong after a low scoring output, going 5-1 in the following six games after scoring one run in its previous game. Ian Kennedy was Cy Young material last season but he has not repeated that this season. He has a 4.26 ERA though 11 starts but that is skewed by two bad games against Kansas City and St. Louis . He has seven quality outings in those 11 games so he has pitched well the majority of the time and he is coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing one run on five hits in 7.2 innings. Against the Rockies, Kennedy has a 3.13 ERA in eight career starts, allowing no more than three runs every time out. He will be opposed by Jeremy Guthrie who is still adjusting to life in Colorado. He has really struggled at Coors Field as he has an 8.87 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in four starts there but he has pitched much better on the road, posting a 2.22 ERA in four starts on the highway. The troubling part though is his 1.32 WHIP as he has 11 walks to just 12 strikeouts and is coming off his worst start on the road, allowing 10 hits in five innings at Cincinnati and giving up six runs total.

Jesse Schule

Rangers @ Athletics
PICK: Over 7.5

The Rangers struggles have reached epic proportions over the last week. They have been blown out in back to back games by the lowly Seattle Mariners last week, and then they followed that up by losing two of three in their series versus the Angels. Last night in Oakland they got blown out again, giving up double digits in runs.

They will hand the ball to a struggling pitcher here on Tuesday, as Derek Holland is coming off a terrible outing, surrendering eight earned runs in just 1.2 innings. His record now is 4-4, and his ERA has ballooned to 5.11. This isn't the only concern for the Rangers however, their bullpen has also been getting rocked latlely.

Oakland will bring Travis Blackley out of the bullpen, and give him a start here on Tuesday. It's a serious gamble for the A's, as Blackley hasn't had any success in his career as a starter, and the Rangers tend to feast on pitchers that make mistakes.

I look for the Rangers to put up some runs on Blackley here in this one, and they will likely need them, as their own starter is more than likely to give up a few runs himself. Chances are this game will go OVER the listed total.

Chris Elliott

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays send ace Ricky Romero to the mound Tuesday afternoon to face off against Phil Humber and the White Sox at Comiskey Park in the battle of first round draft picks.

Romero is 6-1 on the season, with an ERA of 4.04 and WHIP of 1.29. The Jays drafted Romero with the 6th pick overall in 2005 and he hasn't disappointed. Romero has an outstanding 48-30 career record with a microscopic ERA of 3.64 and WHIP of 1.30. His ERA and WHIP are outstanding considering Romero pitches in the AL East.

Humber was drafted 3rd overall by the Yankees in 2004 and has not lived up to expectations. Despite pitching a perfect game this season, Humber has had trouble finding his way in the majors with only 13 wins in his career. Since his magical perfect game on April 21st against the Mariners, Humber has 1 win in 7 starts, allowing 30 runs in 37.2 innings.

The Jays are 9-6 against the White Sox in the past 3 seasons and 4-3 at Comiskey Park. Romero is 2-1 against CWS with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Humber has two no decisions in two starts against the Jays.

The Jays have been good recently, winning 4 of their last 6. The White Sox have been on fire, winning 10 of 11. I look for the White Sox to cool down in this one as the pitching matchup favors the visitors. Take the Toronto Blue Jays to win.

Dave Cokin

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

Even the Padres can score some runs if the opposing pitcher keeps giving away free passes. Tim Lincecum just can't stop walking guys and that makes the Giants righty a very risky favorite. I'll take the available odds with the Padres.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates are 57-131 in their last 188 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face Homer Bailey, who has been on a tear with a 3-0 record and a 2.53 ERA his last three starts. Cincinnati has really put it together the last month to take over first place, with the Reds 11-4 in their last 15 overall. The Reds are 20-7 in Bailey's last 27 home starts. And the Reds are 8-0 in Bailey's last 8 starts vs. Pirates. Play the Reds!

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -175

The Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee is still looking for his first win of the season and I expect him to pick it up in this start against the Dodgers. Lee was 5-0 with an ERA of just 0.21 in the month of June last season and Lee is 2-0 lifetime in twenty two and a third innings of work against the Dodgers with an ERA of just 0.40 and twenty three strikeouts. The Dodgers are struggling right now and their starting pitcher Chad Billingsley currently has a nine start winless streak. I look for both of those trends to continue. Play on Philadelphia.

James Patrick

Cubs vs. Brewers

Brewers Manager Ron Roenicke has to be wondering when the Brewers can get to full strength again. The Brewers have used a new starting lineup in each of the last (18) games and are just (3-7) in their last (10) home games. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster may be (0-3), but has a (2.90) ERA and may have been the Cubs' best starter this season. Dempster has a career (15-6) record with a (2.75) ERA against the Brewers. Big Game James Patrick's Diamond Club complimentary selection in Tuesday Major League Baseball action is Chicago Cubs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +136 over CINCINNATI

Not many people look at the daily standings in MLB so it might surprise you to learn that the Pirates are 27-26 and in second place in the NL Central, just three games back of these first-place Reds. The Bucs have managed to get above .500 despite an awful team batting average of .222. The Pirates are very likely to boost that batting average and when they do, more victories should follow. A.J. Burnett is out of the spotlight in New York and he’s responded rather well. Burnett has flashed a new profile in his first stint in the NL, as he’s now a command artist with just 14 walks in 50 innings to go along with 42 K’s. He also owns an elite 58% groundball rate and that’s more significant at this park than most others. Burnett’s 3.09 xERA suggests that his 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP are no flukes. Homer Bailey went the distance against the Pirates in his last start and needed just 104 pitches to do so. He’s now won three straight and has posted a 2.53 ERA over that span. How many times have we seen a pitcher of Bailey’s caliber dominate a team and then blow up a week later when facing the same team? It seems to happen quite a bit and Bailey has never showed any prolonged consistency. The table is set nicely here and we’ll take our seat.Play: Pittsburgh +136 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +169 over PHILADELPHIA

The Dodgers took the best record in the NL into Philadelphia last night and proceeded to take the opener in this series. The Phillies have now dropped three in a row at home while scoring just eight runs over that span. Cliff Lee needs no introduction. He’s a model of consistency and his 3.00 ERA is backed by full skills support. However, he’s winless in eight starts and that first win gets more difficult with each passing start, knowing that it’ll be another five day wait if he doesn’t get a win here. With the Phillies struggling at the plate and with the ongoing absence of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, laying a tag like this is too risky when the game could very well be decided by the pens. Chad Billingsley has been wildly inconsistent this season but we’ve come to expect that from him. What is evident is that he’s capable of throwing a gem, as evidenced by a 55%/27% dominant start/disaster start split. Billingsley’s skills are above average with 60 K’s in 62 frames, a groundball bias profile and a 3.72 xERA. Phillies are overpriced here. Play: Los Angeles +169 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

MIAMI -8 over Boston: I like the Heat in this one. I expected them to win at least one of the games in Boston, but the crowd gave the C's a bit more energy than I thought they would and they used that energy to take both games. Although Rondo has had a magnificent East Finals series (24.0 PPG, 10.5 APG, 7.0 RPG), he has to be tired after logging 46.8 minutes per game. But at least Rondo is still young at 26 years old, which is not the case for Garnett (36), SG Ray Allen (36) or SF Paul Pierce (34), who played 43, 46 and 39 minutes, respectively on Sunday night. This team has to be tired. Miami plays excellent at home and they have outscored their opponent by 11.5 ppg on this floor this year, plus Boston does come in having lost their last 4 on the road by an average of 8.5 ppg. The Heat may also have the added bonus of getting Bosh back in this one as well. The Heat has lost just 6 times on this floor and after coming out flat in their last 2 games they will look to put the Celtics away early. Boston will fold in the second half of this one as the heat win by 15+.

Bryan Power

Giants @ Padres
PICK: Over 6

Two low scoring division rivals begin a new series Tuesday night in San Diego with the Padres welcoming in the Giants. Few teams in baseball are as offensively inept as the Padres, who average a pathetic 2.9 runs per game at Petco Park and were shut out Saturday in a 6-0 loss to Arizona. Overall, they've dropped eight of nine (getting shut out THREE times). The Giants, like San Diego, have struggled to score runs but unlike the Padres they've been winning. They just swept the Cubs in San Francisco and have won seven of eight overall.

I feel however that tonight's total is too low, mainly due to the pitching matchup. Tim Lincecum has not been the same pitcher for the Giants that we've been accustomed to seeing in past years with an 8.49 ERA on the road (five starts), a big reason why the team is just 2-9 in his last 11 starts overall. Going for San Diego is Anthony Bass, who has a 7.21 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres are already 11-3 Over this season after scoring 1 run or less the previous game.

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Comp play on the New York Yankees laying money over the Tampa Bay Rays.

And I want you listing both pitchers in this game, as my sole intent is to make money with veteran Andy Pettitte over Big Game James Shields.

Pettitte lost his last outing, and is now 2-2 during his comeback season, but has certainly been effective for the Yankees thus far. The veteran southpaw has lasted at least seven innings in his past three starts, and now he has a chance to step up in his first start against an American League East team this season.

And this is the right team for him to get into division action against, as he's on a roll against the Rays, going 15-5 with a 4.32 ERA. Plus, in three home starts this season, the 39-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

New York trails Tampa Bay by 1-1/2 games in the East, and tonight it has a great shot at cutting that deficit, as it's traditionally hit well against Shields, who is just 5-12 with a 4.39 ERA in 23 career starts against the Bombers. He comes in after getting roughed up in his last start, lasting six innings but allowing six runs in a loss to the White Sox. And don't be surprised if Alex Rodriguez leads the offensive charge, as he's stroked four home runs over the last 10 games, including his eighth homer of the season on Sunday.

Look for a well-rounded effort from the Yankees tonight, from Pettitte to the potentially explosive lineup.

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES

CRAIG DAVIS

Tonight's free play is on the Boston/Miami game to go over the total.

These games have been higher scoring than Vegas is thinking, yet they aren't making these totals change all that much recently.

By the time this game tips off, I believe the over/under will be at 180, but I'm still liking the OVER.

93-91 in Game 4 was over the total.

101-91 in Game 3 was WAY OVER the total.

115-111 in Game 2, ummmm, well, yeah, you get the point.

Game 1 did finish under the posted total, but you have to remember the Celtics scored just 11 points in the first and 13 in the 3rd. That's not basketball... that's a beauty contest.

Sure, Miami knows they need to win this game and probably should, but they aren't going to be panic either way. Both teams should score.

Take the Celltics-Heat Over the total as your free play of the day.

3♦ OVER

CHRIS JORDAN

As for my free winner for tonight, I'm lacing up the high-tops and delving into Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, as I like the Over in the Boston Celtics-Miami Heat clash. I've won six straight free picks overall - including four baseball totals - but even more relevant, am on a 5-2 run with my 2012 NBA Playoff freebies. And tonight I want to improve those numbers by going high with this game.

As of 5 a.m. pacific, I see the number at -8 for the Heat, and that tells me the oddsmakers believe LeBron James and company are coming home to South Beach with one thing on the brain, after losing Games 3 and 4, and that is to win in blowout fashion. That usually means a much higher-scoring game than than 179 points. Personally, I don't know about a blowout by the Heat, albeit they're capable of doing it, but I do think we're in store for an entertaining game that will run into the 180s, if not higher.

Of course, on the surface, you'd think Miami is going to win big. But look at how much easier it is to believe this one runs high., The four posted totals have been 178-1/2, 178-1/2, 178-1/2 and 179-1/2. Other than Game 1 landing on 172, the last three games have gone over, landing on 226, 192 and 184. Granted, two of those three games went into overtime, but you can't look at NBA games like that, you have to go by the final product. And let's be real here, seven of the last 10 have gone Over, not to mention six of the last seven in Miami.

The Celtics will be pressed into action, in a fast-paced contest. And believe it or not, for at least two of the four quarters, I say the Celtics hang in there and keep the total on pace to go over, while challenging for this outright win. Which quarters they may be, that's something I can't answer, which is why I'm staying away from the side. But the Celtics have a legitimate Big 3, and oft-times Big 4. Right now, their Big 3 is Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. Sharpshooter Ray Allen has been hit or miss, with his bum ankle, and if he's on, they instantly have a Big 4.

And here's the thing, while I know Boston has the fifth-worst scoring offense in the NBA, averaging just 91.85 points per game, and I realize the two of them rank 2nd (Boston) and 4th (Miami) in scoring defense, do you find it a bit ironic the numbers I just gave you about the over? And make note in the postseason, the Heat rank fourth in scoring offense, while the Celtics rank 10th. And on defense, they're fourth (Boston) and fifth (Miami). Nonetheless, refer to those over trends I mentioned.

The average number of points scored by these two this season is now 190.62 points, up from 187.75 in the four regular-season meetings.

Trust me, defense may win championships, but points win individual games. This one is going high.

3♦ CELTICS/HEAT OVER