SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner is out of the National League East, as I'm playing the Miami Marlins with Anibal Sanchez over the visiting Atlanta Braves and their starter, veteran northpaw Timmy Hudson. This is a cheap price, considering the circumstances, so don't even flinch with what your book is offering.
Check it, nine of Sanchez's 10 outings have been quality starts, and the Marlins' right-hander comes into this one after an impressive win against the Nationals. In that home game he allowed just one unearned run over seven frames. He's now lasted seven innings in seven of his 10 starts, while giving up no more than three earned runs in nine of those games. And his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a phenomenal 67-to-17, almost an incredible 4-to-1.
And tonight he's going to do a much better job than Hudson, who has struggled a bit lately, and has a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts. He's 3-2 on the year with a 4.60 ERA, and though he's been solid against the Marlins during his career, something tells me he's going to get hit hard by a team that has won five of six and 10 of 14.
And I know we're just four days into the month, the Marlins are the No. 1 hitting team in June, with a .299 batting average. They're also tied for third in June with six home runs, and top the league with a .523 batting average so far in June.
With Miami now tied for first place in the N.L. East, along with the Washington Nationals, I have to believe the Marlins are geared up for this nine-game homestand, that includes six Interleague games against Tampa Bay and Boston.
Lay the home chalk with Miami.
2♦ MIAMI
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -150
Tuesday's free play goes on the Reds due to Homer Bailey's dominance of the Pirates. He is 6-0 (8-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.79 in 8 career starts versus Pittsburgh. Those starts have been won by a whopping 4.6 runs per game. Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett is 0-3 (1-3 on the ML) in 4 career starts in Cincinnati. He has been lit up for at least 5 runs in each of those 3 losing decisions. Both pitchers enter in good form but Burnett's road woes can't be overlooked. He's 1-2 with an ERA of 9.82 outside Pittsburgh this year. Burnett's teams are 8-28 in his last 36 starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997. We'll take the Reds.
Andrew Lange
Texas at Oakland
Play: Texas -1.5
I'm not a big run/line bettor but I see value in supporting the Texas Rangers in that manner tonight in Oakland. Last night marked another mysterious loss for the Rangers as the A's hung eight runs in the second en route to a 12-1 win. If you remember a few weeks back, they were pounded by Seattle 21-8. Derek Holland started that game and allowed eight of the 21 runs. He'll look to bounce back tonight in what historically has been a much more successful situation. Last season Holland made three starts against the A's and allowed a total of three earned runs. The year before that, two starts and two earned runs. And like a lot of Texas pitchers, Holland's road numbers are far better. This year's home/road split reads 2.84 ERA/6.89 ERA. For his career, his road ERA is nearly a run and a half better. According to Holland, his last start was nothing more than a mental breakdown rather than something mechanical. For Oakland, Travis Blackley has been around the block and some. He was signed as a free agent back in 2000 and has somehow thrown only 50.2 innings at the Major League level. He's made only one start since 2007, shutting down the Minnesota Twins for five innings eight days ago. Texas should be able to get to him tonight and grab the victory by margin.
MLB Predictions
Pirates / Reds Under 7.5
The Pirates turn to AJ Burnett tonight as they head into Cincinnati looking for their 4th straight series victory. Burnett is 4-2 on the year with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. Those are solid numbers, but include a start where he allowed 12 earned runs over 2.2 innings. If you take that start out of the picture Burnett has been lights out this season with a 1.52 ERA in his other 7 starts. Going up against Burnett is Homer Bailey for Cincinnati, who is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .252 opponents batting average. These two teams met last week for a series in Pittsburgh, in which both of these two starting pitchers took the mound. Burnett allowed 0 earned runs in 7 innings of work, while Bailey went a complete game allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. These two teams have met 6 times with just 1 of those games getting over tonight's total (7.5 runs). The Pirates are averaging just 3.06 runs per game, while the Red are averaging 4.15. The UNDER is 34-16-3 in the Pirates last 53 overall, and 18-6-2 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The UNDER is also 10-4-1 in the Pirates last 15 divisional games, while the UNDER is 10-3-1 in the Reds last 14 divisional games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Burnett's last 4 starts overall, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs divisional opponents. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Reds last 10 games following an off day, and 9-2 in their last 11 after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game. Overall head to head the UNDER is 6-1-2 in their last 9 meetings. Take the UNDER here.
San Francisco Giants -103
The Giants sweep of the Cubbies give the Giants 16 wins in their last 23 games moving them to 31-24 on the season (13-13 on the road), while the Padres have lost 11 of their last 13 games and are now 18-37 on the season (13-18 at home). Tim Lincecum is on the mound for San Francisco and he looks to follow up on his most recent start where he went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. Lincecum is just 2-6 on the season with a 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .261 opponents batting average, but is 10-4 lifetime against the Padres with a 1.84 ERA. Anthony Bass is starting for San Diego, and he is 2-5 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .242 opponents batting average. Unlike Lincecum, he is trying to forget his last couple starts where he went just 5.1 and 4.2 innings giving up 6 and 5 earned runs. These two teams had a three game series in San Francisco in April, where the Giants went 2-1 including a win in a game with tonight's starting pitching match up. Note that the Giants are 35-17 in their last 52 road games vs a team with a losing home record. The Padres are just 22-46 in their last 68 during Game 1 of a series, while the Giants are 5-0 in their last Game 1 of a series. The Padres are 3-8 in Bass' last 11 starts, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs divisional opponents. The off day shouldn't give Padres any edge as they are just 1-5 in their last 6 following a day off. N0te that the Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum's last 4 starts vs the Padres, and 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in San Diego. Tonight we have one very hot team with Lincecum on the mound who loves playing against San Diego versus a very cold team whose pitcher has struggled his last two times out. Take the Giants to win at a nice price.
Wunderdog Sports
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -150
The Milwaukee Brewers have a tremendous upside at home where they won a MLB leading 57 games a year ago. They face a Chicago Cubs team that is about as close as a team can come to being an automatic road fade. The Cubs have dropped 11 straight games on the road, managing just 14 runs in the last nine of them or about 1.5 per contest. Even Ryan Dempster and his respectable 2.90 ERA are not good enough as he is still seeking his first win of the season. Since allowing 8 runs at St. Louis all the way back on April 27th, Yovani Gallardo is pitching at full potential, not having allowed more than 3 runs in any start since. The Cubs are just 1-10 here in their last 11 and have dropped five straight here to Gallardo. Play on Milwaukee.
Ross King
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh is 20-35 the last 3 seasons as a road underdog of +125 to +150.Pittsburgh on the road 65-114 and after a win 61-93 the last 3 seasons.Pittsburgh has won last 4 in Cincinnatti and have not won 5 in a row there since 2002.Cincinnati has homered 20 times at home in winning 7 of the last 8.Reds starter Bailey is 6-0 with an e.r.a of 1.79 and a whip just over 1.Take Cincinnati to continue to be solid at home behind a pitcher who loves playing Pittsburgh and get some revenge as your freeplay winner.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies fit a nice system that has won 13 of the last 16 times and play on home favorites off a 1 run home dog loss if they scored 4 or less runs and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road favored win and scored 4 or less runs and 10 or more men left on base. The Phillies are too high for unit rating statues but will serve as a nice free play with C. Lee on the mound. Lee has been superior going 4-0 with a 0.30 era vs the Dodgers shutting them out in the last 23 innings he has faced them. The Dodgers counter with Billingsley who is 1-3 on the road and 1-4 vs the Phillies with an era over five. Look for the Phillies to even the series tonight.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -105
The Chicago White Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now. Getting them at this price at home is an absolute gift from oddsmakers Tuesday. Chicago has won 14 of their last 16 games overall and they're showing no signs of slowing down.
Ricky Romero has struggled of late, giving up 8 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. Romero is 1-1 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in five road starts this season. The White Sox are 3-0 in Philip Humber's last three starts, and he's allowed 2 earned runs in two of them.
In two career starts against Toronto, Humber has posted a 1.26 ERA and 0.907 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 hits over 14 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are 2-6 in Romero's last 8 starts as a road underdog. Toronto is 1-4 in Romero's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road underdog, 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog, and 0-5 in their last 5 road games overall. Bet Chicago Tuesday.
Dave Price
Houston Astros +135
Both the Cards and Stros are struggling, but Houston is playing winning baseball at home (17-12) and it has had Jaime Garcia's number. Garcia is 0-4 with an ERA of 6.89 in 6 lifetime starts versus the Astros. The Red Birds have lost each of those 6 by an average of 4.5 runs. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road favorite, and the Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Houston.
Jeff Alexander
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +130
The Phillies get the call on the run line with the 2008 AL Cy Young winner on the hill. Cliff Lee has been ridiculous in the month of June. He has won his last eight June starts while compiling a 0.65 ERA, and is 14-2 with a major league-best 2.49 ERA in the month since 2008. He's also been dominant against the Dodgers, going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.30 in 4 career starts against them. His teams have won each of those starts by an average of 4.0 runs. LA's Billingsley is just 1-4 with an ERA of 5.13 in 8 career starts versus Philly. The Dodgers have lost 5 of his last 6 starts versus the Phillies with those 5 losses coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Take Philly on the run line.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
ARIZONA -143 over Colorado: Jeremy Guthrie has pitched very well for the Rockies on the road this year with a 2-1 mark and a 2.22 ERA, but he may be due for a fall here, especially vs an Arizona squad that needs a win. Ian Kennedy has not pitched well at home with a 2-2 mark and a 5.57 ERA, but the Rockies are a team that he has done well vs, going 1-0 with a very nice 2.10 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. The D-Backs have really been struggling to score, but they still average a little over 4 rpg at home, while the Rockies average just 3.8 rpg on the road and the loss of Tulo will not help the Rockies offense be that much better. Arizona is still the more talented team here and their offense will wake up vs Guthrie, while Kennedy will keep the punchless Rockies in check. big game for Arizona and they will respond with a win here.
Kansas City/ Minnesota Over 8.5: Francisco Liriano. Nuff Said. LOL I know he had a good showing in his last outing, but he has still allowed 4 or more ER's in 6 of his last 7 starts, plus he also has an 9.04 ERA in 4 road starts this year. Liriano has a 4.23 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Royals, while his last 4 starts vs them have put up art least 12 runs. Bruce Chen comes in with a 2-1 mark in his last 3 starts, but with a high 6.46 ERA and those starts have averaged 9.7 rpg. Bruce did throw a couple of gems vs Minnesota last year (0 ER in 16 innings in 2 different starts), but he still has a 5.23 ERA in his career vs the Twins, plus he will be facing a Twins team that has been very solid offensively of late, as they have averaged 4.8 rpg in their last 10 games. The Royals have struggled to score at home and Minnesota does struggle to put up runs on the road, but this game will be about a couple of bad staffs. The Twins have the worst ERA in the league, which includes an ERA of 5.33 on the road and a 6.56 ERA from their starters on the road, while the Royals have a 4.97 ERA at home, including a 5.80 ERA from their starters at home. Twin road games have averaged 9.8 rpg, while KC Home games have put up 9.2 rpg. Should be a fun one.
Seattle/ Angels Over 8: Wow this Seattle offense has been hot. The Mariners come in having hit over .290 and have scored 9.2 rpg in their last 6 games. That is very unlike these Mariners, but a lot of their scoring problems have been at home this year as they have averaged under 4 rpg at home, but 4.8 rpg on the road. Garrett Richards will be making his first start of the year and while he has just 3 starts in his career, he has a 5.91 ERA in those starts, so I do look for this Seattle offense to stay hot in this one. Blake Beavan comes in with a 5.50 ERA in his last 7 starts and a 5.29 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 11.3 rpg. Tonight he will be taking on an Angels team that seems to be waking up offensively. The Halos have averaged 3.9 rpg at home, but on this current home stand (7 games) they have averaged 5 rpg. while in their last 10 they have averaged that same 5 rpg while hitting .267 over that stretch. Seattle last 10 games have averaged 12.1 rpg, while the Angels last 10 have averaged 9.3 rpg. I expect at least 10 runs in this one.
Detroit/ Cleveland Over 9: (Added) Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched well the year, with a 5.79 ERA overall, but he does have a winning record and that means he has been involved in many high scoring games. Ubaldo has a 9.00 ERA on the road this year, with an average of 13.2 rpg being scored in those starts, while his starts overall have averaged 11.3 rpg. Last year Ubaldo had 2 starts in Detroit and he allowed 14 ER's in the two start, while 29 totals runs were scored in those games. The Indians have had troubles scoring at home, but on the road this year they have averaged 5.2 rpg and that has helped their road games average 11 rpg. Drew Smyly had a nice start to the year and he does have a 3.46 ERA, but in his last 4 starts he has a 6.53 ERA, so he is struggling right now. Drew's games do average just 8.7 rpg, but his last 7 games have been a bit higher scoring at 9.9 rpg. Ubaldo has gone more than 6 innings just once in his last 9 starts and behind him is a pen that has a 5.00 ERA on the road this year. Drew has not gone more than 6 innings once this year and behind him is a pen that has a 3.72 ERA at home, so we can also expect some late runs in this one. with two struggling pitchers on the mound we may not need the pens, but it is nice to know that they are there just in case. LOL. 12 runs at least in this one.