Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 8,2010

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals and Dodgers meet in Los Angeles when Chris Carpenter matches serves with Hiroki Kuroda at Chavez Ravine Tuesday night. Carpenter enters tonight's game 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in his career team starts in this series. He's also 9-1 his last 10 team starts overall. With Carpenter in terrific KW form with six walks and 31 strikeouts in his last six starts, and Kuroda 0-3 in his last three efforts, look for the Redbirds to take the middle game of this series here tonight.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

We get some exceptional value with the home team here on Tuesday. The Reds lost the opener of this series last night by a run as moderate favorites but now the line has flip-flopped and Cincinnati is an underdog of the same number. The loss Monday dropped the Reds to 19-12 at home on the season which is still very solid and they are one of only nine teams in all of baseball with at least 19 wins on their home field. It was the second straight one run victory for San Francisco and over its last 14 road games, it is just 5-9 with four of those five wins coming by just a single run. The Giants are 14-15 in the 29 games overall and they send Matt Cain to the hill who has been outstanding this season. He has a 2.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 11 starts but the Giants have not fared as well as they should with those solid pitching numbers. They are just 5-6 in those 11 games including 2-3 on the road. Run support has been the issue as San Francisco has averaged only 3.7 rpg overall including 3.8 rpg in the five road contests. Cain has been the tough luck pitcher no doubt and now he faces a team that he is winless against in his last four starts while putting up a 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He squares off against Sam LeCure who has pitched well in his first two Major League starts. He started with a quality outing in his debut and his next game finished 2/3 of an inning short of a second straight quality performance. The Giants are 19-39 in their last 58 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better and they are 1-6 in Cain’s last seven starts as a road favorite between -110 and -150. The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight home games against a right-handed starter. Play on National League home teams in the first half of the season that are hitting .275 or better going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. This situation is 47-20 (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. This situation is even stronger as the average moneyline in those 67 games is -115 and we get the Reds as underdogs. 3* Cincinnati Reds

Craig Trapp

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 +160

MIN has been banged up and missing a few key starters the past two games but tonight they get healthy against KC. Hard to imagine the difference a year makes but Grienke has been downright terrible in his last few. He has posted a 7.04 ERA while dropping each of his last three starts. Last time in MIN he got drilled as well losing 10-3. MIN turns to Slowley who has been great winning three of last 5 starts with a 3.35 ERA. He has won all but one start against KC in his career and today he goes 7 innings with just 1 run. Morneau and Mauer will dominate today as they rough up Grienke to at least 6 runs.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a nice system that plays on road favorites off a 1 run road dog win, scoring 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a home favored loss at -140 or higher, also scoring 5+ runs. The Giants have M. Cain going tonight and he has been lights out over his past 3 starts with a 0.36 era allowing just 1 run and 10 hits in 25 innings. On the road he has been one of the best with a 2.41 era. The Reds counter with Lecure who will be making just his 3rd start compiling a 3.97 era thus far. The Reds will need a solid performance tonight considering they have a 5.27 home bullpen era. Look for the Giants to move to 3-0 both as a road favorite in this range and off back to back road wins.

Jim Feist

Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 10

A high total for this game with two starters with high ERAs. However, both starters throw strikes and a guy like Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball can be unhittable at times. He faces a light hitting Cleveland offense that is 12th in the AL in runs scored. Wakefield has a 4.23 career ERA against better Cleveland offenses than this one, walking 59 in 151 innings. The Indians have a lefty going in David Huff and Boston is not as sharp against southpaws. Play the Red Sox/Indians Under the total.

Brad Diamond Sports

New York Mets over San Diego

Have great respect for small ball Padres, but can’t help supporting home standing Mets who mound red hot hurler Mike Pelfrey. No doubt back on June 2nd lefty Padres ace Richard nailed the Mets good with a super 6 innings of work dictating a 5-1 win over Johan Santana. However, this Tuesday edition should be a real nice spot for the Mets to avenge that loss. The Mets are 6-2 against left-handed hurlers and 20-6 on their home turf. In addition, New York has won four straight behind Pelfrey, while the Padres are 2-5 when Richard’s comes off a quality start. Look for the Mets big tonight.

Cajun Sports

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Selection: New York Mets

The New York Mets play host to the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night for the opening game of a three-game set. The Mets will send Mike Pelfrey to the bump with his 5-0 home record this season and an ERA of 2.05. Pelfrey is a perfect 8-0 when starting at night this season. New York is 8-1 in home games versus a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season and 8-1 in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game on the season. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play ON MLB NL home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better, with a bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last ten games. This system has produced a record of 50-18 the last five seasons for +26.3 units. We will back Pelfrey and the Mets at a decent price on Tuesday night as they capture the first game of this three-game set.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* New York Mets 4 San Diego Padres 2

Gill Alexander

TOR (+180) vs TAM

It's a pretty simple play based on lots of embedded value in the number. No way the Jays should be getting this much of a return here. Tallet is coming off 5.2 shutout IP v TB last time on the bump. Niemann is coming off 6.1IP of 5ER, 9H ball v Toronto. That alone makes this line exploitable. Delving deeper, both Tallet and Niemann have been exceedingly fortunate pitchers according to BABIP stats this season (Niemann - .240, Tallet - .231) but Niemann's sample size is robust enough to really draw the conclusion that regression to the mean is coming. The Rays have lost 5 of 7 at home. That may qualify as my most succinct write-up of the season, but this one really does come down to my line being about 45 cents off of the actual line. With a Jays offense that always gives us a chance in any ballgame, I'm not going to overthink this one.

JR O'Donnell

CLE / BOS Over 9.5

Boston Red Sox over 9.5 -112 tonight as the Red Sox will tee off tonight on the Tribes poor throwing David Huff. Huff has a poor 2-6 record and a 6.08 ERA, he will go against a Red sox crew who has put up 310+ runs. Huff after getting beaned by A Rod will get shelled early and often by the Sox, D. Huff has given up 5+ runs in 8 and 10 starts this season and we feel that even if the Tribe puts up a few runs the Sox will go over with a 7 or 8 run output, They left tons of men on the bases last night and that "1-14" mark with RISP WILL not happen again for the sweet swinging Red Sox.

Tony Karpinski

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

This line is way over inflated because of the anticipation of Stephen Strasburg. Yeah he looks like a stud, but all eyes will be on him tonight plus he is on a pitch count and only expect to pitch 4 or 5 innings. We are getting some great value with the Pirates. Not to mention Washington said they wanted him to make his first start against the low Pirates. Well that is a kick in the balls to the Pittsburgh players. Standing room only tickets went on sale Monday, all part of a rare Nationals Park sellout and we'll take the +185 value with the Pirates tonight!

Steve Merril

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds +1.5/-139

Cincinnati has been one of the few teams to have success against Matt Cain in his young career. The righty is 2-3 with a 3.96 ERA in six career starts against the Reds. In his last three starts against them, Cain is 0-2 giving up 11 runs and 23 hits in 20 innings pitched. As a team, the Reds hit .291 against Cain as Joey Votto (4-12), Orlando Cabrera (3-10), Laynce Nix (4-7), Ramon Hernandez (1-3), Paul Janish (1-3), and Miguel Cairo (1-1) all hit him the best. The Reds have won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming by one run. They are 19-12 at home this season where they are hitting over .290 as a team. The Reds are an amazing 24-14 at night averaging 5.7 runs per game. Sam Lecure will make the third start of his young career for Cincinnati on Tuesday night. The righty is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA defeating the Astros while losing in St. Louis. He's struck out nine and walked eight while giving up five runs overall. The Reds are 4-3 at home against the Giants over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 12-14 on the road this season as they hit just .256 away from home. The Giants pitching has also been a weak spot on the road as their bullpen is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA and six blown saves. With Cain’s struggles against Cincinnati, and the Giants overall struggles on the road, we’ll recommend taking the Reds on the run line in this game.

GREG SHAKER

LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Under 193

Game 2 surprised me a bit in a lot of ways and even though I though that Boston had a great chance of winning, I did not expect them to win as they did. We saw 12 more shots from the court than we did in game 1 and that is the primary reason, along with the point differential toward the end of the contest. The Celtics played great D throughout and I expect them to do the same for this one. LA has to step up theirs as they do have their backs against the wall and teams in this situation do that, as well as go to their Big Scoring Guys more often. In doing so, they work the ball more and that in itself creates slower shooting pace. This number posted is higher than the previous two and that gives us better value with this number. It would not surprise me if we saw the lowest point total yet tonight at the Gardens.

SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON –2½ over Los Angeles

Let’s see if we have this right. The Lakers were a 5½-point choice in game one and then they were a 6-point favorite in game 2 and after winning in L.A., the Celtics are just a 2½-point choice in game 3. Interesting, isn’t it? Let’s have a closer look at game 2. The Celtics bench scored 24 points while the Lakers bench scored just 15 and that’s with Kobe playing just 34 minutes because of foul trouble. Now, one can argue that’s why the Lakers lost but the Celtics built its biggest lead of 14 with Kobe in there and it’s also worth noting that the Lakers went to the line 41 times and still lost by nine. They lost by nine with Paul Pierce connecting on just 2 of 11 shots and Kevin Garnett hitting just two shots also. Sure Ray Allen was in the zone but that’s not uncharacteristic of him, as he remains one of the best shooters this league has ever seen. Let’s also not forget that the Lakers blocked 14 shots in that game and STILL lost by nine and frankly, aside from Allen hitting 8-11 from deep, nothing went well for the Celtics. Now they’ll come home to a frenzied arena where they absolutely destroyed the Magic (94-71) upon returning home for game three of that series. The Lakers are tough but the C’s deserve the same respect as the Lakers but they’re not getting it. If they were, they, too, would be a 5½-6 point favorite at home, just like the Lakers were. Play: Boston –2½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Kansas City +1.27 over MINNESOTA

Zack Greinke is considered to be having a bad year and a 1-7 record is proof but c’mon now, Greinke has an ERA of 3.60, he’s walked 17 batters in 60 innings and on the road he’s 0-4 but has an ERA of 2.47. It’s an absolute travesty that Greinke is 1-7 with the way that he has pitched and the fact that he’s this big a pooch against Kevin Slowey is also ridiculous. Slowey is coming off a gem against the Mariners. Big deal. In five prior May starts he allowed 35 hits in 27 frames and had a BAA of .304 to go along with an ERA of 4.55. His numbers in April were about the same. Slowey also has an unsustainable 79.7% strand rate this season to go along with a GB% of just 29% and those two numbers suggest that Slowey has been the luckiest pitcher in baseball and it might not be close. Slowey is so overvalued here it’s not funny and given the opportunity this wager should be made 100% of the time. Oh, BTW, the Royals saw Slowey earlier in the year and scored four times in 5 innings and he was lucky that day too, as he allowed eight hits, walked two, hit a batter and pitched every inning with two or three men on base. If Greinke had the exact same numbers and was 7-1 instead of 1-7 the Royals would be about –1.40 chalk here and frankly, that’s probably what they should be. Play: Kansas City +1.27 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO –1½ +1.74 over Detroit

Didn’t Armando Gallaraga just come off a perfect game that wasn’t? Wasn’t this one of the most documented pitching performances in the history of the game? Damn, the guy was perfect. Aren’t the White Sox losing way more games than they’re winning these days? Now with all this the Tigers are taking back a small tag? Are you kidding? When you look at all this it looks like the Tigers are an automatic play and that’s exactly what the books are hoping for. This is a classic fade because the books put up such an enticing number on the Tigers and had they made this game a pick-em or even the Tigers –1.15 or –1.20 they would likely not have swayed a single bet. Laying –1.13 in this game is an option too but we’ll go big and lay the 1½-runs. There’s no sense in breaking down the match-up because it’s not important. This one is all about fading Gallaraga and taking the side the books don’t want us to. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.74 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +1.29 over PHILADELPHIA

A slump is a few games, even seven, eight or nine games but this has turned into more than a slump, as the Phillies have scored a ridiculous 29 runs in the past 15 games. That’s 10 less than the Orioles in the same number of games. Over that stretch the Phillies are hitting .208, they’ve struck out 109 times and they have four jacks. Kyle Kendrick is rarely going to have a solid outing. He’s rarely going to strike out anyone and you can double that when he pitches at home. His 5.81 ERA at Citizens Bank Park is a true indicator of what he’s capable of. Meanwhile, Chris Volstad has been a model of consistency for much of the season. He owns a 52% ground ball rate and only once has he allowed more than 4 earned runs in a start. The Marlins may not win here but its chances of doing so are better than the Phillies and when you throw in a tag, they’re a must play. Play: Florida +1.29 (Risking 2 units).

COLORADO –1½ +1.09 over Houston

Brian Moehler at this park has about as much chance of success as North Korea does of winning the World Cup. Moehler is perhaps the biggest stiff in the game with a BAA of .343, an ERA of 6.49, a WHIP of 1.71 and 9 K’s against 8 walks. Recently, he failed to get a single out against the Rays and was pulled after facing just four batters. He followed that up with a start in Cincinnati in which he lasted 2.2 innings and allowed 10 hits and 8 runs. His BAA on the road is .363 and frankly, there’s not much more to say. Moehler has a job because the Astros have nobody else to turn to and as soon as they do, Moehler will be watching from the rail and may not get into another game in his career. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +1.83 over TAMPA BAY

The price alone makes the Blue Jays worthy of a wager despite the fact that Brian Tallet will make only his second start since coming back from injury. Thing is, he looked like a completely different pitcher upon his return. He looked very comfortable and he looked confident. He was throwing hard, he kept the ball down and he had these same hitters off balance into the sixth inning when he was pulled. The Rays won that game 7-6 but Tallet did not allow a single run and gave up just four hits in six innings. Jeff Niemann owns an ERA that's a run and a half below his xERA. He's outperformed his skills with the help of an 80% strand rate so far, but allowed 5 earned runs and 9 hits vs. Toronto in his last outing. This game is really a toss-up and it’s worth noting that despite a good record against lefties (17-7), the Rays are hitting just .224 against them and a correction in its record vs southpaws is forthcoming. Jays offer up more great value just like they have all year. Play: Toronto +1.83 (Risking 2 units).

DAVE COKIN

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
TAKE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

The Dodgers are on a pretty substantial roll right now, so betting against this team at home is not the easiest proposition on the planet. But if there's a night to do so, this looks to be it. Chris Carpenter is in his usual machine-like form for the Cardinals, and he has absolutely owned LA. In six career starts against the Dodgers, Carpenter is 5-0 with a glittering 2.20 ERA. The hosts counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who's usually good enough to keep his team in it, but who also has not been at his best lately. This is a cheap price for Carpenter, and it's low enough for me to step forward with a call on the Cardinals.