Michael Cannon
Take the Mets for the home win over the Padres.
It’s hard to go against New York at home. The Mets have been almost automatic when playing in front of the partisan crowd and I expect another win tonight.
Mike Pelfrey gets the start and he’s 8-1 on the year with a 2.39 ERA. The right-hander has won his last four starts, posting a 1.26 ERA, and he’s earned a quality start in 10 of his 12 outings this year. Pelfrey is also 2-0 with a 3.16 ERA in four career starts against the Padres.
Take the Mets as they grab the home win.
4♦ NY METS
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run is sitting at 106-88-3 and tonight I'm dishing out a winner in the National League as I go with the Braves to get the win in the desert against the D'Backs.
The Braves split a four-game set in Los Angeles over the weekend and now they are trying to bounce back from Monday’s loss to the D’Backs. I’ll back Atlanta who sends Kris Medlen (3-1, 2.79 ERA) to the mound opposite Arizona’s Edwin Jackson (3-6, 5.33).
Medlen pitched the opener of that series against the Dodgers and allowed three runs (two earned) in 7.1 innings of the 4-1 Atlanta win. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his five starts this season, and his ERA on the highway is stellar 2.70. His lone career start against the D’Backs came May 31 last year when he held them to one run on four hits in six innings of a 9-3 Braves’ victory.
Arizona has lost eight of Jackson’s last 10 starts, and one of the wins was his last home start when he gave up five runs to the Blue Jays but the offense got him an 8-5 victory.
The Braves have won four of the last five meetings with Arizona and they are on further streaks of 20-6 overall, 9-4 on the road, 42-19 as a favorite and 27-11 in the second game of a series. The D’Backs are on slides of 8-20 overall, 15-40 as an underdog, 2-10 against right-handed starters and 9-24 as home ‘dogs.
Atlanta is getting to Jackson early and going to get the win tonight. Play the Braves behind Medlen in this one.
4♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
There really is little to think about in tonight's game between the Yankees and the Orioles.
New York on the RUN LINE is the way you play this one, and if Baltimore is lucky enough to hang in there for the one run loss, so be it.
G-Man doesn't see that happening however, as the Yankees just swept the O's last week in the Bronx to make it 8-1 in this year's season series.
Phil Hughes is already 1-0 in this 2 starts against Baltimore, with just 2 runs allowed in 13 innings, while Kevin Millwood is still in search of his first win at 0-6, and he has allowed 8 runs in his 11 innings of work against the Yanks this year.
Sorry Kevin, keep searching for that first win becasue it isn't coming here.
Yankees roll the Orioles once again.
5♦ YANKEES -1.5
Stephen Nover
I am 21-7-1 on past 29 complementary selections. On the Tuesday card, I like taking a small 'dog price on the Detroit Tigers and Armando Galarraga against the White Sox and a struggling Gavin Floyd.
This is Galarraga's first start since his perfect game this past Wednesday against Cleveland ... wait ... make that a 1-hitter.
The talk still hasn't died down surrounding umpire Jim Joyce's blown call at first that cost Galarraga his perfect game. So fully expect Galarraga to get every call in this game.
Galarraga has been pitching well going 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. The same can't be said for Floyd, who is 2-6 with a 6.64 ERA. Floyd was shelled in his last outing, surrendering six runs on eight hits in just 2 2/3 innings in a 9-5 loss to Texas.
Morale can't be too good for the White Sox. There are trade rumors that the White Sox will be sellers and begin the rebuilding process soon being a disappointing 8 1/2 games out of first in the AL Central.
5♦ TIGERS
Brett Atkins
Dished out the free winner on Monday when the Giants rallied to beat the Reds in Cincinnati. Tonight I have another National League winner coming at you as I go with the Braves on the road in Phoenix, taking on the D'Backs.
Atlanta has been playing some superb baseball lately, even with the loss in Arizona on Monday.
Today, I’ll take them behind the arm of Kris Medlen (3-1, 2.79 ERA) who has been pitching very well this season and has a 2.70 ERA on the road. He pitched the opener of a four-game set in Los Angeles on Thursday, allowing just three runs in 7.1 innings of a 4-1 Braves’ victory.
Medlen hasn’t allowed any team to get more than three runs in any of his five starts this season. Last year, Medlen shut down the D’Backs in Arizona, giving up one run on four hits in six innings of a 9-3 victory.
Arizona has lost eight of Edwin Jackson’s last 10 starts.
Atlanta is 20-6 overall, 42-19 as a favorite and 27-11 in the second game of a series. Meanwhile, Arizona is 8-20 overall and 9-24 as home ‘dogs. I’ll take the Braves in this one.
3♦ ATLANTA
JOEL TYSON
Gotta solid total free play for ya on Tuesday, as the Padres and the Mets combine for the easy under at Citi Field.
San Diego just played under the total last night in Philly which means they are now on a 6-2-1 under run their last 9 games.
The Mets are on a 3-1-1 under run their last 5, and starter Mike Pelfrey has been smoking pretty much all season long, sporting a 2.42 season ERA.
Clayton Richard ain't far behind folks, as his season ERA stands at 2.87.
Runs gonna be tough to come by in Queens tonight.
Take the under.
4♦ UNDER
BIG AL
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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The Royals will once again hand the ball to last year's Cy Young Winner Zack Greinke. And Greinke has been unable to capture the magic of last season in 2010. He's now 1-7, with a respectable 3.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But over his last three outings, his ERA is 7.05, so there's definitely some issues with him currently. One of his problems this year has been the long ball (he's surrendered nine home runs in 75 innings), and his other problem -- though out of his control -- is run support. The Royals have scored 4+ runs in just four of his 12 starts. But because he's not getting run support, he may be trying to pitch too fine to the hitters, rather than just going out there, and letting his immense talent win out. Tonight, he'll have his hands full with a Twins team that has defeated him in nine of 12 games in his career, including 10-3 earlier this season. Slowey has had tremendous success vs. KC, with a 4-1 record, and a 3.38 ERA. And the Twins are 18-9 at home this year. Take Minnesota.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Cleveland's David Huff is making his second start since he took a line drive off his head against the Yankees. His first start back he allowed five runs in just three innings of work versus Detroit in a 12-6 loss. Boston has won five of six in Cleveland and have taken 13 of the last 16 meetings. Boston won the series opener last night 4-1 and the Red Sox are 31-13 after allowing just one run in their previous game. We suggest making a play on the Sox here as a decent road favorite.
Ben Burns
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Pirates @ Nationals
PICK: Under 8.5
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You've probably heard that Stephen Strasburg will be making his highly anticipated debut this evening. Will he be as good as advertised? Only time will tell. While I do expect him to have a successful first start, I'm certainly not about to lay greater than -200 on a kid who has never pitched in the big leagues yet. That said, I feel that the 'under' is well worth a look.
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The 21-year old Strasburg has so much hype because he's got electric stuff and because he has dominated at every level that he's pitched at. In the minors, he was 7-2 with an outstanding 1.30 ERA. He had 65 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 55 1/3 innings of work. Here, he'll face a Pittsburgh lineup which is batting .233 against right-handed starters, while averaging a mere 3.1 runs, per game.
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Jeff Karstens gets the call for the visitors and he should be highly motivated not to let the "rookie phenom" get the best of him. Perhaps more importantly, he's been very sharp his last couple of outings. Indeed, over his last two starts, he's allowed just nine hits and two runs through 12 innings. That translates to a 1.50 ERA. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the total. They finished with scores of 3-2 and 2-0.
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Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Pirates have seen the 'under' go 19-12-1 when playing a game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. The Nats have been even more profitable for 'under' bettors in that situation. In fact, 14 of 20 games have fallen below the total, when they've played a game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. Consider the UNDER
Tom Freese
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey has allowed 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Twins are 88-40 their last 128 games as home favorites and they are 20-7 in Game One of a series. Slowey is 20-6 his last his last 26 home starts. The Twins are 12-3 their last 15 games vs. the Royals. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke has allowed 13 runs in his last 15.1 innings of work. Greinke has lost his last 3 starts. The Royals are 23-48 their last 71 road starts made by Greinke. Kansas City is 17-37 off a win.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Mets -141
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The Mets have asserted themselves as a very good home team this season, and I like their chances tonight behind Pelfrey. The Mets have won 20 of their last 26 home games, and Pelfrey provides them with an excellent opportunity to continue their winning ways. He's 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA on the season, including a perfect 5-0 at home with a 2.05 ERA. And over his last 3 starts, he's been near-perfect, going 3-0 with a 0.86. It is also worth noting that those wins came against the two teams that appeared in the World Series last season (Yanks, Phillies) and the team he is facing tonight. Richard has been pretty solid for San Diego, but he figures to have his work cut out for himself tonight when you consider the Mets dominance of left-handed starting pitching. The Mets are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. And it is also worth mentioning that the Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an off day. Bet the Mets.
EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -113
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The St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Chris Carpenter is having another fantastic season posting a 7-1 record with an ERA of just 2.76 for the year. Carpenter, who is the Cardinals ace, has dominated the Dodgers in his career. In six career starts against Los Angeles Carpenter is 5-0 with an ERA of only 2.20. The Dodgers are sending Hiroki Kuroda to the mound for this start and Kuroda has really been struggling. For the season Kuroda is 5-4 with an ERA of 3.63, but over his last three starts Kuroda is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.19. I look for the St. Louis bats to do enough damage against Kuroda for Carpenter and the Cardinals to pick up the win here. St. Louis is 36-17 in Carpenter's last fifty three starts as a road favorite. Play on St. Louis.
Dwayne Bryant
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TEX / SEA Under 8.5
I'm going back to Texas again tonight, but this time it's the total that looks good to me.
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Felix Hernandez has faced Texas twice this season -- once at home and once in Arlington. He obviously prefers facing the Rangers in Texas, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts there since the beginning of last year. Felix has gone 8 innings and allowed 1 run in each of his last two outings. Hernandez struggled a bit early this season, but last season was pretty much the same. Last year, he hit his stride around this time, going 14-2 with a 2.10 ERA between June 1 and the end of the season. He seems to have found his groove this season at about the same time.
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The Mariners won't have Scott Feldman to kick around tonight. Colby Lewis starts for Texas. Lewis has faced Seattle twice this season and allowed just ONE run on 8 hits in 16 innings of work. That equals a 0.56 ERA and 0.81 WHIP (can you say "domination?"). Seattle is batting just .239 and scoring 3.6 runs per game on the road against righties this season.
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Bottom line: King Felix has hit his stride and Lewis has dominated the Seattle lineup twice already this season. We shouldn't see too much of that Seattle bullpen with Felix on the hill, and Texas' pen is decent enough at home. Looks like another low-scoring game in this series tonight. Take the UNDER.
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 65-19 making 36.1 units for 77.4% winners since 2004. Play on all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after 3 straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Florida is just 9-21 (-16.9 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 2 seasons. Florida is not an offensive threat in road games batting just 245 and scoring 3.8 RPG. Their bullpen is not sound and has posted a 5.59 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP over their past 7 games. Kendrick is really starting to become a consistent starting pitcher. He is coming off a 7 inning start allowing 1 ER on 5 hits. He is not going to strike out the side, but he does a great job in pitching to contact and fellow teammate Jamie Moyer has taught a lot about that style of pitching. It works and we fully expect Kendrick to have another 6 inning plus start tonight. Take the Phillies.
Rocketman
LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: LAA Angels
LA Angels are 9-3 on the road this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. LA Angels are 6-1 this year in June. LA Angels have won 9 of their last 10 games overall. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Jered Weaver is 5-2 with a 2.74 ERA overall this year, 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Vin Mazzaro has a 6.08 ERA in all games this year and a 12.00 ERA in all starts this season. LA Angels are 14-5 at Oakland the past 3 years. Weaver has a 2.61 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997. Mazzaro is 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!