Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 1,2011

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

The finale of this three-game Eastern Conference road swing finds the Mavs looking over their shoulders at Toronto and dead ahead to a revenger with the Pacers. A home loss to the Raptors in late December sent the Mavericks on a 2-9 SU spiral that included at loss at Indiana along the way. One team that did not beat the Dirk-less Mavs during that stretch was the 76ers. In fact, Philadelphia was dumped, 99-90, in Dallas in the first month of the season. Hence, a perfect spot for the Sixers to exact a measure of revenge is here. Not only is Philly 14-5 ATS in this series when playing with revenge but Doug Collins? crew hasn?t shown much ?brotherly love? when seeking same-season revenge this year as evidenced by their 12-4 ATS mark, including 5-1 ATS at home. Collins? overachievers are also 17-9 ATS against winning opposition this season, including 8-3 ATS at home. Stay at home with the Sixers tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Hollywood Sports

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

San Antonio (49-10) pulled out a 95-88 win over Memphis on Sunday but look for the Grizzlies to avenge that loss tonight in this immediate rematch. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a victory. And they will be without the services of Tony Parker who strained his left calf muscle in this last game on Sunday and will now be out two to four weeks. The Spurs are 21-8 on the road but the Grizzlies have covered 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis (33-28) is a strong 20-8 on their home court themselves. They have also covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite of under seven points. The Grizzlies are without Rudy Gay who is out with a separated left shoulder but they do have the benefit of inserting Shane Battier into their rotation after his recent acquisition from the Rockets. Lay the points with Houston Tuesday night.

Scott Spreitzer

Missouri at Nebraska
Play: Nebraska

I'm playing Nebraska on Tuesday night. The Huskers won the biggest game in the Doc Sadler era when they upset Texas a couple of Saturdays ago. But since then UNL has not been able to capatilize on momentum, dropping two in a row. Losing to Kansas State is excusable. But a loss to Iowa State is not, especially for a team that was shooting for an at-large Big Dance berth. While wins against Missouri and Colorado to finish the season won't likely wrap-up a dance invite, I still expect the Huskers to be fired up for their final home game as a member of the Big-12. Missouri guard Marcus Denmon was the difference in Missouri's 77-69 win over UNL in Columbia. But Nebraska owns the "bigs" to slow the Tigers down in Lincoln. Missouri is not a good road team as it is. They're 2-6 SU/ATS heading into this one. Meanwhile, the Huskers have owned homecourt well, going 16-2 SU with their only losses coming against Kansas & Kansas State. Mizzou struggles on the defensive end, which is a Nebraska strength. The Huskers are 13th in ppg allowed and 6th in the nation, allowing teams to make just 38.4% of their shots. Nebraska's style will throw Missouri off their game. The Tigers have covered just 21 of their last 65 road games. And Nebraska is on a 5-2 ATS run at home against Mizzou.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Dallas Mavericks

The Sixers are getting a little "too much" respect from the oddsmakers here as they open as just a one-point home dog to a Dallas team that has won its last six games, averaging around 110 PPG. They are 13-3 ATS this season in games where the line is three or less and have been one of the NBA's best on the road, going 19-10 ATS, including 8-1 ATS when off a road win. They are 27-13 ATS off a SU win this year.

Frank Jordan

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play: Vanderbilt +7.5

Vanderbilt and Kentucky matched up back on February 12th with Vanderbilt away an 81-77 winner infront of the home faithful. This time around the game is in Kentucky where they are 14-0 where as Vanderbilt is 5-4 on the road. Since their last meeting Vanderbilt has gone 3-1 running their SEC record to 9-5. Kentucky has also gone 3-1 running their SEC record to 8-6 and their only loss was on the road in overtime. In this match up of SEC rivals each ranked in the top 25 look for Vanderbilt to send the Wildcats to their first home loss of the season with a big second half late to silence the crowd. Play Vanderbilt

Cajun Sports

Kent State vs. Bowling Green
Play: Kent State -4

Kent takes to the highway for a meeting against instate rival Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Kent took the first meeting between these two squads 80 to 63 with all five starters scoring double-digits in the victory. The Golden Flash look to keep their first place position in the MAC East division while Bowling Green is just playing out their schedule losing six of their last seven and losing all seven against the number. BG after losing their last two games against the spread and now playing at home are only 5-14-1 ATS. When facing a division opponent as a home dog in this price range they are 3-11 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS versus Kent as an underdog of 3 to 6.5 points. A check of our database reveals a couple league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST home underdogs off three straight road losses, 77-126-7 ATS. If they are facing a conference opponent, their record is 54-98-5 ATS. Play AGAINST a division home team coming off three straight road games, 34-56 ATS. Kent State is 58-31 ATS in this price range; if they are favored, their record is 40-18 ATS. If the Golden Flash are coming off a home affair and now installed as a favorite of 3 to 6.5 points they are 24-9 ATS, if they are on the road their record is 13-4 ATS in this situation. When Kent State goes Over in their last game and are now a conference favorite of 3 to 6.5 points they are 16-3 ATS their last nineteen. We have no problem laying the short price with Kent State as they roll past the towel tossing group from Bowling Green.

Matt Fargo

Warriors at Pacers
Play: Under 215.5

On paper, this game looks like it has the makings for a shootout but we are catching a lot of value to play this game the opposite way. On Sunday Golden St. was involved in a high-scoring game at Minnesota as 249 total points were scored and that was actually an aberration of what has taken place as prior to that, the Warriors had gone 9-4 to the ‘under’ in their previous 13 road games and on the season, Golden St. is 17-9 to the ‘under’ in its 26 road games. Indiana was also involved in a high-scoring game on Sunday as it lost to Phoenix with 218 total points hitting the scoreboard. That game went into overtime however and at the end of regulation, the game was well ‘under’ the number with 198 points scored so the extra five minutes made a big difference and adds value tonight. The Pacers had gone ‘under’ in their previous two games before Sunday which has been more of the norm as Indiana is 19-11 to the ‘under’ in its 30 home games this season. The first meeting this season went ‘over’ the 214 closing total as 218 points were scored but playing in Golden St. made a huge difference. The Warriors have put up 18 ‘overs’ and 14 ‘unders’ at home while Indiana is 15-13 to the ‘over’ in its road games. The Pacers have seen an average of 198.5 ppg scored at home which is obviously well below what we are working with tonight and even Golden St.’s 207.4 ppg on average in road games is below the number tonight. As mentioned, the Warriors are coming off a shootout and they are 21-9 to the ‘under’ in their last 30 road games following an ‘over’ while going 29-9 to the ‘under’ in their last 38 road games after scoring 110 or more points in their previous game. Golden St. is also on a 19-6 ‘under’ run in road games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 99 or more ppg. Indiana meanwhile is 13-4-1 to the ‘under’ in its last 18 games as a home favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 3* Under

Brent Brooks

Alabama +6

After looking dreadful in non-conference play, Alabama has only lost 3 games in the since December 18th. Huge game for both teams and grabbing the points is the way to go here.

Youngstown St. +14

With three players (Van Wijk, Witt & Rogers) all listed as questionable for the opening round of the Horizon Tourney - and with YSU's solid play down the stretch this season - this is far too many points to be giving the Penguins here. A very high scoring game here - most likely a Valpo single digit win. Value on Penguins.

JIM FEIST

HOUSTON / PORTLAND
TAKE: HOUSTON

Houston is rested and playing week, on a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS run. They come off a nice win at New Orleans as a +6 dog. This is an uptempo attack that is No. 3 in the NBA in scoring, with 105.5 ppg. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Portland has home court, but is 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS the last three games and the Blazers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Play the Rockets!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Illinois +9.5

The Illini have put themselves in a situation where they likely need to win their final two games of the regular season and put forth a good showing in the Big Ten tourney to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Knowing what kind of resume-booster a win over Purdue would be, I fully expect Illinois to give the Boilermakers a game tonight. Illinois has been solid on the road for the most part. In fact, the Illini have either won or lost by 6 or fewer points in 11 of 14 games away from home this season. It is also worth noting that the Fighting Illini are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Illini gave up 81 points in a home loss to Purdue last month. With this is mind, it is worth noting that coach Weber's teams are an impressive 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games when looking to avenge a loss to an opponent that scored 75 points or more on them. Weber's squads have actually bounced back to win by an average score of 73.1 to 68.7 in this situation. Take the points.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: San Antonio Spurs +1½

Memphis is 33-28 straight up this year. The Grizzlies are 12-27-2 ATS their last 41 Tuesday games. The Grizzlies are 8-22 vs. San Antonio. The Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS their last 10 meetings with the Spurs. The Grizzlies are after allowing 95 or more points in their last game. San Antonio is 49-10 straight this year. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS their last 8 road games and they are 6-2 ATS as an underdog. The Spurs are 7-3-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS on Tuesday.

Ray Monohan

New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -6½

The NY Knicks go for the Florida sweep tonight in Orlando. 7 p.m. on NBA TV. NY fresh off of a nice 91-86 victory over Miami on Sunday and now they find themselves 30-27 straight-up (34-21-2 ATS) and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference standings. Orlando has won 4 of its last 5 including a 100-86 win over the Bobcats Sunday. The Magic are now 38-22 SU and 28-31-1 ATS. Orlando have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 88 points - the lone exception a stunning 111-105 home to Sacramento last week after which Howard blasted his teammates for a lackluster effort. I believe we'll see another GREAT effort from the Magic tonight as they look to move up in the Eastern Conference standings. The Magic won the only meeting between the two 112-103 at home Dec. 30 as Howard had 24 points and 18 rebounds. Some trends I like for this matchup include ORLANDO are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic. Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. NY are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Steve Janus

New York Knicks +7.5

I really liked what I saw from the Knicks in their last game against the Heat, and I feel like there is just too much star power on the Knicks for them to be a 7.5-point underdog. The Magic will try and take the Knicks seriously, but you have to imagine their focus is slightly shifted to their Thursday night TNT showdown with the Heat. The Knicks are a ridiculous 20-8 ATS on the road this season, and while most of that was with a completely different team, I think a win at Miami is reason enough to believe they are capable of beating a lot of teams on the road. While they might not win tonight, I expect this to be a very close game, plus the Magic are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Ben Burns

L.A. Lakers @ Minnesota
PICK: Minnesota +9.5

Obviously, there's a "class difference" between these teams. That doesn't mean that the T-Wolves aren't providing us with value though.

Looking at their last five road games and we find the Lakers at just 2-3 SU/ATS. Both victories came by five or fewer points.

For the season, the Lakers have a solid 21-11 road record. A closer look reveals that they're only outscoring opponents by an average of 3.2 points in those games though, an average score 100.4 to 97.2.

While the T-Wolves are a poor 10-21 at home, they're only being outscored by an average of 2.2 points (105.8 to 103.6) in those games.

The T-Wolves are off a 3-point victory over Golden State last time out. Four of their last five have been decided by single-digits.

Speaking of "close" games, note that three of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by nine or fewer points. With the Lakers at just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, consider grabbing the generous points.