Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday March, 13

DUNKEL INDEX

Iona vs. BYU
The Gaels look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 neutral site games. Iona is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Iona (+2 1/2).

Game 547-548: Western Kentucky vs. Mississippi Valley State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 56.317; Mississippi Valley State 44.094
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 12; 126
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-4); N/A

Game 549-550: Iona vs. BYU (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 61.377; BYU 61.366
Dunkel Line: Even; 162
Vegas Line: BYU by 2 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+2 1/2); N/A

Game 551-552: Massachusetts at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 58.942; Mississippi State 67.033
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 8; 149
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 6 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 553-554: Stony Brook at Seton Hall (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 52.401; Seton Hall 62.524
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 10; 129
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 12; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stony Brook (+12); Over

Game 555-556: Dayton at Iowa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.208; Iowa 65.895
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 2 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa by 4; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+4); Over

Game 557-558: Savannah State at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 53.001; Tennessee 69.974
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 17; 119
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 14; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-14); Under

Game 559-560: Akron at Northwestern (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.551; Northwestern 67.985
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 6 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-6 1/2); Over

Game 561-562: Marshall at Middle Tennessee State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 60.027; Middle Tennessee State 61.696
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 1 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 5 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+5 1/2); Under

Game 563-564: LSU at Oregon (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 59.991; Oregon 69.729
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 9 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Oregon by 7; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-7); Over

Game 565-566: TX-Arlington at Washington (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 56.923; Washington 63.592
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Washington by 9; 156
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (+9); Under

Game 567-568: Cleveland State at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 58.443; Stanford 62.472
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 4; 126
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 571-572: Princeton at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 59.070; Evansville 63.426
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 4 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Evansville by 3 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-3 1/2); Over

Game 573-574: WI-Milwaukee at TCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 57.716; TCU 60.803
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 144
Vegas Line: TCU by 4 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+4 1/2); Over

Game 575-576: Washington State at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 57.891; San Francisco 64.453
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 148
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 581-582: Robert Morris at Indiana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 55.182; Indiana State 58.100
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 3; 127
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 5; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+5); Under

Game 583-584: Tennessee State at Mercer (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 52.683; Mercer 59.749
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 7; 132
Vegas Line: Mercer by 5 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (-5 1/2); Over

Game 585-586: Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 46.922; Old Dominion 64.390
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 17 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 10; 131
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-10); Under

Game 587-588: Tennessee Tech at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 52.262; Georgia State 60.283
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 8; 140
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 10; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+10); Over

Game 589-590: McNeese State at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 51.192; Toledo 58.635
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 7 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Toledo by 5 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-5 1/2); Over

Game 591-592: Utah Valley at Weber State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah Valley 46.533; Weber State 58.002
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 11 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Weber State by 13; 143
Dunkel Pick: Utah Valley (+13); Under

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic

The Magic host the Heat with revenge on Orlando's mind from a 90-78 loss suffered in this series a month ago. Looking inside the numbers we find Orlando 17-6 SU and 15-7-1 ATS the last 23 games n this series, including 8-2-1 ATS as a host. With that look for the Magic to improve to 9-3 ATS in its last twelve home dog roles here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Orlando.

Matt Fargo

Dayton vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -4

Iowa caught a fortunate break in the first game of the NIT. Despite being a seven seed, it was able to get a home game because the Dayton Arena is in use for Tuesday and Wednesday for the NCAA Tournament first round. The Hawkeyes were not figuring to get a home game in this tournament but they will use that to their advantage on Tuesday. Iowa put together a very good season despite being just a game over .500 as expectations were low so they are very excited to be playing in the postseason. The Flyers come in off another disappointing loss to Xavier once again to end their hopes in the Atlantic-10 Tournament and playing on the road is certainly not something they wanted. They were strong at home with a 14-4 record but they went just 3-7 in true road games with one of those victories coming over lowly Fordham in overtime. This is a veteran team and while that can post problems against some teams, the Dayton psyche will be in question here because the NCAA Tournament was the goal . This is the first postseason for the Hawkeyes in six years so it is a big deal even if it isn't the NCAA Tournament. "Everybody I've talked to is extremely excited, because this program hasn't been to a postseason in a few years," senior guard Matt Gatens said. It's certainly a pleasant reward for an Iowa team which surprised many of the Big Ten's top teams. As of 5:30 p.m. Monday, the school had sold more than 9,300 tickets so the crowd at Carver-Hawkeyes Arena will be a very good one. This is a great opportunity for the Hawkeyes to use this experience in preparation for the future as six of the top eight scorers return next season and five freshmen on the roster will get extra practice time. Iowa is 13-6 at home but it closed by going 4-1 over its last five home games including wins over Indiana and Wisconsin. Iowa is 8-0 in its last eight games after allowing 85 or more points in its previous game while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games following a double-digit loss.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington State vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -5

Washington St is 0-4 straight up and to the spread in their last 4 tournament games and 0-5 with just one cover when they are a road dog of 3.5 to +6. San Francisco is a solid 12-1 vs teams that are five hundred or less cashing 7 of the last 9 in that role. The Dons are also 10-3 ats when the posted total is 140 to 150 and 5-1 ats after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. The Cougars are without guard Faisal Aden and really are not that good this year. Look for San Francisco to put a quick end to the Washington St season with an opening round win adn cover.

Bryan Power

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders
PICK: Washington Capitals

Pretty solid value here on a Caps team that has won three in a row and now trails division leading Florida by just one point in the weak Southeast. They are off a 2-0 shutout of Toronto on Sunday and a 4-3 win at Boston the game prior to that. One would have to think it's very likely Washington is going to come in here and pick up two points against a slumping Islanders team that has lost six of its last eight (0-4-2). They are off an OT loss to the Rangers Sunday, which may carry over. These teams met just a couple of weeks ago in the Nation's Capital & the Caps came away w/ a 3-2 win in overtime. That does not bode well for the Isles chances here considering a 4-15 mark this season when seeking revenge for a road loss. A small wager on Washington tonight is recommended.

Ben Burns

Dallas PL @ Minnesota
PICK: Minnesota +1.5

The Stars are rolling. The Wild are struggling. That's created some solid value with Minnesota, at least in my opinion.

As of this writing, the Wild are available at +145 on the moneyline. If playing at +1.5 goals, on the "puck-line," the price is as low as -210. I feel both lines offer value. If looking for an underdog with a solid shot at an "upset," consider the Wild on the moneyline. However, for those who don't mind laying some extra juice, the puckline option should provide an excellent chance at cashing a ticket.

While expensive, getting an extra +1.5 goals is extremely significant. Note that four of Dallas' last seven victories have come by a single goal. Also, note that the Wild are off back-to-back 1-goal games. Additionally, note that all four of yesterday's NHL games were decided by a single goal.

Diehard hockey fans know that the Dallas Stars used to play in Minnesota, formerly known as the North Stars. Fans in Minnesota have never forgotten and typically get a little extra "fired up" when their former team comes to town. Often, this extra energy in the crowd seems to translate to some extra energy on the ice.

While they lost twice at Dallas in February, the Wild are 2-0 the last two times that the hosted the Stars. Going back further finds them at 10-7 the last 17 times that they were a host in this series. A closer look reveals that five of those seven losses came by a single goal, too. In other words, if getting +1.5 goals each time, the Wild would be 15-2 the last 17 times that they were a host in this series. Consider Minnesota.

Jim Feist

Washington State vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -5

The CBI tourney starts in San Francisco with a 20-win San Fran team hosting a 15-16 Washington State club. Washington State is 4-8 away from home and the Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and the Dons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall! The home team will be into this one, the visitors could care less. Play San Francisco!

Dave Cokin

Dayton vs Iowa
Pick: Iowa

Dayton off the demoralizing come from well ahead A-10 Tourney loss to Xavier. Iowa off getting totally humiliated by Michigan State. Tougher recovery is for the Flyers and having to play on the road won't help. I'll go with Iowa.

Sean Murphy

Savannah State @ Tennessee
PICK: Tennessee -14

Savannah State earned an NIT invitation thanks in large part to scheduling a tough non-conference schedule that included matchups with Georgetown, Indiana, Butler, Wisconsin, and Arkansas.

Keep in mind, the Tigers lost each and every one of those games by at least 15 points. That's not to mention a 20-point setback against a rebuilding Georgia Tech squad.

After bowing out of its conference tournament in disappointing fashion (they lost by 13 points as a seven-point favorite against Hampton), I'm not sure that Savannah State is all that thrilled about a trip to Rocky Top as an eight-seed in the NIT.

The Volunteers also made a disappointing exit in their conference tourney, dropping a 77-72 decision against Ole Miss in overtime. They had been on a tear heading into that contest, and certainly had their sights set on a possible NCAA Tournament bid.

I have a lot of respect for Vols head coach Cuonzo Martin, and I'm confident that he'll have his team up for the NIT. Remember, not much was expected from the Vols heading into the season, as most had them pegged to finish near the bottom of the SEC. Playing in the NIT has to be seen as a reward, even after last week's disappointment.

Most will remember that Tennessee struggled against much lesser foes early in the season, even here at home, where it lost to Austin Peay, and barely escaped with wins over NC-Asheville and East Tennessee State. There's no question, we're talking about a much different team today.

The Vols went on a tear from the start of February to the end of the regular season, going 8-1 SU and ATS. Here at home, they went a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS over their final seven contests, with only two of those wins coming by single-digits (both in the underdog role against UConn and Vanderbilt - two NCAA Tournament-bound teams).

There's a significant talent gap in this matchup, but also a wide gap in motivation, which I'm not convinced is being properly accounted for. The Vols are the type of team that can make a run in the NIT, and it starts with a strong performance tonight.

Free CBB Release for 3/13: Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Marshall. MTSU is showing excellent value as just a small favorite over the Thundering Herd at home. These two schools met up in Marshall two years and the Blue Raiders lost by 3, but covered as an 8.5 point dog. Marshall was recently on a 4-0 SU & ATS run vs some marshmallow teams, until going into Memphis and getting smoked 83-57. Note that the Thundering Herd are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games when coming off of a loss of 20 or greater. Overall, Marshall averages 66.9 points/game on the road this year while allowing 69.4. MTSU has been rock-solid defensively at home, allowing foes to just 59.1 points/game on a miserable 38.8 shooting %. They've outscored all opponents by an average of 11.4 points/game at home, and that's what we're looking for today. MTSU is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, and a solid 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a teams with winning percentages above .600. The Blue Raiders out-shoot, out-score, out-bench, and definitely out-defend the Herd. We'll lay the small number for the home team here, Middle Tennessee State -5.5. Our free plays are now 177-96-1 all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to get the best free basketball picks via email. Thanks, and best of luck.

Vegas Experts

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are coming off back to back losses both straight up and against the spread and are due for a winning matchup. Cleveland on the other hand is due for a loss after winning three straight, covering all three matchup, including two huge outright wins over Denver and Oklahoma City. They are coming off a nice win over Houston 118-107 and will come back with a struggling performance against the Raptors tonight. The Raptors are 3-1 ATS on the road against Cleveland and in their last meeting, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers 92-77. Take the 4.5 points with the Raptors on the road.

SPORTS WAGERS

SACRAMENTO -3 over Golden State

Give Mark Jackson and the Warriors all the credit in the world. Jackson has changed the culture in Golden State from being the greatest offensive show on the hardwood to being more defensive minded and systematic. Golden State is just as likely to win 90-85 these days as they are 105-100. This past Sunday, the Warriors won at the Clip Joint as a 7½-point dog. It was the last game on the board and it was an impressive win that was witnessed by many. On Saturday, they blew away the Mavs' by 24. The Warriors have won three of four and they are suddenly on the public’s radar screens and that’s what scares us. Oddsmakers play into this sort of thing and we prefer looking at the value side of such equations. The Kings are improving with each passing week. They're currently 2-1 on a season-long nine game home stand. In their last game against Atlanta on Sunday, four of five starters had a horrible shooting day and yet the Kings lost by just seven. Prior to that they had wins over Dallas and New Orleans. The Warriors are coming off a win but they also blew a 21-point lead in that game to just hang on. With a home game on deck tomorrow against the Celtics and this being a moderate foe, we find this to be a good spot to give away these few points. Play: Sacramento -3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

N.Y. ISLANDERS +112 over Washington

The Islanders are basically done. They’d likely have to run the table to have any chance of making the playoffs, as they're 10 points out and have to climb six teams to get there. It's disappointing but the pressure is off and they can now play the fun role of spoiler, beginning right here. Despite the poor season, the Islanders will not lay down against anyone, especially teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Capitals have won three in a row and now sit in the final playoff spot, two points ahead of the Sabres. Those three wins came against the Leafs, Bruins and Tampa Bay. In the win over the Bolts they scored with under four minutes to go to tie it before winning in OT. When they played the Maple Leafs, it was the Leafs second game in less than 24 hours. Besides that, Toronto is on a 2-12-2 run. The win over the Bruins was a decent one, despite getting outshot 13-2 in the third. The point is, the Caps are still the Caps. That three-game win streak is nice but it doesn't change much. Washington still only has 12 wins in 31 road games and they're still a fraction of the team they were in previous years. While we understand why they’re favored here, we hardly believe they are a worthy road chalk. Play: N.Y. Islanders +112 (Risking 2 units).

CALGARY -½ +128 over San Jose

The Sharks got a much needed 3-2 win in Edmonton last night but so what. The Oilers are 29th in a 30-team league. It was the Sharks first win in their past six games and third win in 14 games. It was also the Sharks first road win in nine tries. The Sharks have fallen out of a playoff spot and will now play their third game in four days, fifth game in seven days, the tail end of back-to-backs and their fourth straight on the road. It's also the final leg of a difficult trip through Dallas, Phoenix, Edmonton and Calgary. The Flames can leapfrog over the Sharks with a win here and move up two spots into eighth. The Flames also have two games in hand over 8th place Colorado and one game in hand over the Sharkies. This is a huge game and one that could ultimately have a big impact on the fate of these two teams. Calgary has just 10 regulation losses at home all year. They've won three in a row and scored four goals or more in all three games. Calgary has also scored the all-important first goal in 11 straight games and they're 23-0-4 when leading after two periods. The Flames have an edge in net, they're in better form, they're rested and they should beat this soft and sinking squad just like every other team has been doing over the past three weeks. Play: Calgary -½ +128 (Risking 2 units).

New Jersey +111 over PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia's goal is to get healthy for the playoffs. They have nine regulars on the shelf right now and while they have won four of its past five games, the Flyers have not looked sharp in doing so. Ilya Bryzgalov was named the league's #1 star this past week and that's why the Flyers have been winning. They were soundly outplayed in that 3-2 win over the Red Wings and 1-0 win over the Caps. They beat the Maple Leafs 1-0 on Saturday and that 5-0 win over the Panthers was a misleading score as well. When they went into New Jersey on Sunday, they lost 4-1 and were outshot 31-19. Against Detroit they were outshot 39-23 and against the Caps they were outshot 34-23. The Flyers are beatable right now while the Devils are as sharp as any team in the league. New Jersey has won four in a row and five of six. Its only loss over that span was 1-0. They have allowed one goal or less in six straight. Over that span they've outscored the opposition 20-5. The Devils are healthier than they've been all season and they just keep on winning and being undervalued. That works in our favor once again. Play: New Jersey +111 (Risking 2 units).

Passing NCAAB

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Heat -4

This isn't a good spot for Orlando. Consider that plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points, provided they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more, are 44-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 7.7 points.

You don't want to make a habit of laying points on the road, but the Heat have proven to be a worthy road favorite at 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in the role.

The Magic are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Southeast division. Take the Heat.

Steve Janus

Denver Nuggets -5

My money is on the Nuggets to easily cover this favorable home spread against the Hawks on Tuesday. Denver comes in off a 3-point loss at home to the Grizzlies on Sunday, which will have them focused and motivated to make sure they don't disappoint the home crowd against an Atlanta team that has lost two of their last three overall.

Denver is one of the toughest places in the NBA for opposing teams to play well. That should definitely be the case tonight, as the Hawks will be playing their 5th road game in the last eight days. Teams rarely play well at the end of long road trips, and I can't see Atlanta being all that motivated in this matchup.

Denver has played extremely well against the East's Southeast Division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks tend to struggle against the Western Conference, as they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 vs. Western Conference.