Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -12.5
The Dallas Mavericks are going to show up tonight highly motivated to beat the Washington Wizards. Not only do I believe they will win this game, I have them doing so in blowout fashion. This is certainly a game the Mavericks feel like they have to win to get back on track.
Dallas comes into this game having lost three straight and four of their last five. A big reason for their recent struggles has been a brutal schedule. They played five games in six nights during this stretch, and four of those were on the road. There aren't many teams that could handle a stretch like that much better.
Coming in on two days' rest and with refreshed minds, the Mavericks are primed to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. Washington is in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. They lost 97-112 at San Antonio last night, and a similar beat down can be expected here.
The Mavericks are 16-3 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 13-27 ATS in all games this season. Washington is 3-11 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
Patrick Webb
Dayton vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -4½
Iowa will cover the 5 points in this game. Iowa comes into this game hoping to use this tournament as a stepping stone for next season and Iowa fans have responded. Dayton has struggled on the road this season with 3-7 S.U. record and 4-6 ATS. Iowa has a couple of significant advantages in this game- a tough match up in Aaron White who is a perimeter oriented 4 and Matt Gatens who finished the season extremely hot from three and was very efficient as a scorer.
Dayton's offense is perimeter oriented and Iowa has struggled with good three point shooting teams. A combination of Bryce Cartwright and Devyn Marble should be able to slow Dayton's lead guard Kevin Dillard who leads the team in assists and scoring. Dillard will be the key to this game as Iowa would be better served to make him beat them from behind the arc. Dillard has four teammates who have made at least 40 threes this season, and two of them are hitting at a 40% clip.
I like Iowa in this game because the two clubs play at similar pace, Iowa has a FTR advantage and should be able to win the rebounding battle at both ends. Iowa 74 Dayton 66
NHL Predictions
Devils / Flyers Under 5.5
Tonight will mark the 6th and final meeting between these two teams on the season. They met in New Jersey on Sunday with the Devils winning 5-1, giving them a 3-2 season series advantage. Of those 5 games three have fallen under the posted total with totals of: 5, 10, 5, 7, and 3. Tonight’s play of the UNDER has value because of the way the two starting goalies have been playing recently. Martin Brodeur has won three straight games allowing just 1 goal against per game. In fact he has allowed just 1 goal against in 5 of his last 6 starts. Ilya Bryzgalov has won 5 straight games which includes 3 shutouts and just 5 goals against in total. Note that the UNDER is 3-1-2 in the Devils last 6 overall and 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the Devils last 7 vs divisional opponents. Also note that the UNDER is 5-0 in the Flyers last 5 overall and 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the UNDER tonight.
Red Wings / Kings Over 5
These two teams will meet for the 4th time this season. The Red Wings have won the first 3 meetings with all games having 5 or more total goals scored and the OVER going 2-1. Total scores included 5, 10, and most recently 7. The Red Wings are averaging 3 goals per game over their last 10 games. On the season the Red Wings are averaging 2.83 goals against per game on the road where they are just 16-18-1. The Kings have received a nice scoring boost with the acquisition of Jeff Carter. Over their last 10 games the Kings are averaging 2.90 goals per game, and they have scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games. Jimmy Howard is expected to start tonight, but he hasn’t been in action for over a week as he sat out with an injury. Jonathan Quick is expected to be in net for the Kings, and although he has great numbers on the season he has allowed 2 or more goals per game in his last 5 starts (2.80 GAA over that span). I like the season trend of the OVER continuing tonight between these two teams.
Matt Rivers
Tuesday's comp play will be LSU plus the points at Oregon.
Always tough for the visitor in Eugene, as that funky court the Ducks play on certainly is not the norm in college basketball these days, but I believe former Stanford coach Trent Johnson will prep his team properly for their visit to the northwest.
While the Ducks went 15-3 at home this year, they were only 7-8 against the spread in their lined home dates.
LSU compiled a money-making 11-5 spread mark as the visitor this year, and this young Tigers team definitely appears to be on the cusp of bigger things next season.
The Tigers gave Kentucky a scare in the SEC semifinals, and I think they will be excited to be a part of this "lesser" tournament, whereas Oregon may be just a little deflated that they were not able to take the Pac 12 tournament and get that automatic bid into the Big Dance.
Give me the Bayou Bengals plus the points as the underdog cashes in.
2♦ LSU
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let us take the Memphis Grizzlies to beat the L.A. Lakers.
Get the Lakers out of the Staples Center and they have their problems. The Lakers did beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last road game. But that took some late heroics. Prior to that, they lost games to Washington and Detroit. Those are teams you would not think a quality Laker team would lose to.
On the road, they are 7-14 straight up and 5-15 ATS. The Lakers on the road are an average team, at best.
Memphis has been playing better lately. In its last five games, it is 4-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS. Actually, Memphis has won 10 of its last 12 games. They are looking like the team that made the playoffs last season and upset San Antonio. The Grizzlies have been nearly as impressive, going 15-5 straight up and 11-9 ATS.
Take the home team.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday night freebie is the UMass Minutemen plus the points at Miss State.
Trouble down in Starkville, as the locals are getting a little anxious as the Bulldogs missed the Big Dance invite for another season!
Miss State was a no-show in the SEC tournament, as they were dumped by the Georgia Bulldogs by double-digits, and that was as the five-point favorite. Rick Stansbury's team is just 2-6 both straight up and against the spread their past eight games, so you can see why I have trepidation in asking them to cover over three-baskets against a capable Massachusetts team.
The Minutemen bring a 22-11 ledger into tonight's first round battle that includes wins in three of their last four games. In the just concluded Atlantic Ten tournament, UMass sprung an opening round upset of the Temple Owls, and only lost by four to the eventual tournament champion St. Bonaventure in the semifinals.
With Mississippi State on a 5-13 overall spread slide their last 18, and an 8-10 home spread mark for the season, look for the visiting Minutemen to be right there in the closing minutes at the Hump.
Take Massachusetts plus the points!
4♦ MASSACHUSETTS
WUNDERDOG
Texas Arlington at Washington
Pick: Texas Arlington +9
The Washington Huskies have the dubious distinction of being the first team ever from a power conference to win their regular season conference title, and get shunned from the Big Dance. The problem is that the Pac-12 was weak this year and they played St. Louis, Marquette, Duke, and Nevada as their top four non-conference games - and lost them all. They also lost to South Dakota State at home by 19. Texas Arlington is 24-8 for the season, and their biggest opponent was Baylor on the road where they lost by just 10, and they have gotten better. They have also done a good job bouncing back off a loss, covering their last four, and have also been 6-1 ATS vs. teams better than .600. While Washington is a capable offensive team, if they couldn't get up for Oregon State and bowed out of the Pac-12 tournament in Game 1, I don't see any objective here. Take Texas Arlington.
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner tonight is on another underdog, to go along with my premium winner, as I play the Princeton Tigers (19-11) over the Evansville Purple Aces (16-15) at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana, for the first round of the College Basketball Invitational.
While the Purple Aces are mired in a 2-5 ATS slide in non-conference play, the Tigers arrive on ATS runs of 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after a spread cover and straight-up win, 18-6 when visiting a team that wins at home, a historic 40-18 on the highway and 13-6 in non-conference play.
But this is more than a game - and money move - about betting trends, I just thought I'd get those out of the way. Let's talk about how the Tigers are poised to win this one outright, despite having the better record than the Aces, but still having to play on Evansville's home court.
Princeton comes in having won eight of its last nine games, but the biggest win of the season's 19 triumphs has to be the 75-73 triple-overtime victory at Florida State in December. Remember, the Seminoles won the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament after beating Duke and North Carolina in back-to-back games, and are now being considered by many as a great longshot to be in the final quartet in April.
Princeton, which was a mere 11-10 before making its late-season surge that has positioned the Tigers to win 20 games for a third-consecutive season, is led by a balanced attack with seven players averaging at least 5.1 points. That means rested legs rotated efficiently in a hostile environment. And make note, the Tigers are a big team, as they have eight players on the roster who are 6-feet-8 or taller.
This team plays tough, they hang in ball games and they certainly aren't used to being blown out. Six of Princeton's losses were by four or fewer points. That would be fine with me, given the line tonight. And for the record, Evansville can't seem to win close wins, as seven of its 15 setbacks were by two or fewer points this season.
Based on how these teams closed down the stretch, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers steal this one by a range of 3-5 points tonight. Nevertheless, take the points.
1♦ PRINCETON
Chris Jordan
And while my top play in the college ranks is an underdog, I have to lay the points with that is probably the best favorite on the card. Unlike their counterparts up in Seattle, the Pac 12's Oregon Ducks are happy to be playing the NIT, and will be looking to light things up against an LSU team that might be coming out of a tough and rugged Southeastern Conference, but also had to travel clear up to the Pacific Northwest and has no clue about what to expect in the Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene.
How into this game are the Tigers, or shall I say, how much did they get to prepare for it? Reportedly, the Tigers (18-14) practiced for 90 minutes Sunday night, returned to their living quarters or study for mid-term exams on Monday and/or rest up for this trip, and then left yesterday afternoon for a flight that landed at 10:30 p.m. eastern.
I don't care if they slept in or not, they apparently practiced last night when they arrived, and this team is going to be tired. And something tells me they're going to still be stinging from a 60-51 loss to No. 1 Kentucky in the SEC tournament in New Orleans.
Enter Oregon (22-9), which finished third in the Pac-12 with a 13-5 record, and which is seeded third in the 32-team field. And why do I think this team is going to win big tonight? Cause there's a part of me that believes it should have knocked off Pac 12 tournament-champ Colorado in the event. The Ducks actually outrebounded Colorado by 13 and outshot them by 13. Overall, they outhustled the Buffaloes. Problem was, the Ducks had a shockingly bad shooting performance, finishing worse than 40 percent for the game.
Thus, I think the Ducks will be out to prove something tonight. And even though I think the Tigers could be better defensively, than Colorado, again, they're going to be tired and weary for this game tonight.
With homecourt advantage, the Ducks will get their proven scorers fired up and should be able to pull away for the win and cover. Lay the home chalk.
1♦ OREGON
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Stony Brook +11 over SETON HALL: Motivation. It's all about the motivation in this one. Seton Hall had high hopes of making the NCAA Tourney, but they were snubbed and now are playing in the NIT. Seton hall also found out that they weren't really that close to making the Tourney, as NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Jeff Hathaway revealed that Seton Hall wasn’t as close to the last four teams as most thought. The Hall had a nice win down the stretch as they beat Georgetown by 18, but after that they went 1-3, which included a home loss to Rutgers and a 28 point road loss to the worst team in the league in Depaul. This is not a team that is finishing strong as they did go 6-10 in their last 16 games and finished just 8-10 in the Big East, after a strong start. Now Stony Brook had a fine season in the American East Conference as they won their regular season with a 16-3 record, but a loss in the Finals of their tourney has them here instead of the Big One. Still this is a team that will relish post season play and anytime these small schools get a chance to take down a team from a power 6 conference you can bet you will get their best shot. Even though they lost their Conference Tourney, the Seawolves are thrilled at a chance at a Big East team, while Seton Hall has lost a lot of motivation after not making it to the Big Dance. Seawolves should keep this one very close.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee Tech +9.5 over GEORGIA STATE: Tech didn't really finish the season strong as they won juts 3 of their last 7 games, but this team still went 19-13 overall and 9-5 min non-conf games, plus of their losses in their last 7 games were to Murray State. Tech is led Kevin Murphy, who is one of the better scorers in Division I and finished the season ranked 10th nationally in scoring (21.1 ppg). Murphy has really turned it on down the stretch scoring at least 21 points in each of the last four games, while also having a 50-point performance under his belt this year. As a team the Golden Eagles are 68th (72.6 ppg) in scoring and 36th in shooting (47.1%). Now we know that Georgia state plays excellent defense as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg (18th), but they have also played a lot of schools in the CAA that slow the pace and just don't score well, so those numbers may not tell the whole story. Now when this team played the likes of Texas SA (56th in scoring), Wahsington (34th) and Utah Valley State (69.9 ppg), they allowed 71, 91 and 68 points respectively in the 3 games and Tech falls into the category of the three teams above. The Golden Eagles do struggle on defense while the GSU offense is average at best, but I feel that Tech will be able to put up enough points vs this GSU defense that has struggled with some good scoring out of conference teams. I look for a close one here.
Tennessee/ Savannah State Over 124: Savannah comes in as a tough defensive team as they have allowed just 58.9 ppg (11th) on the year, but two things stood out for me when looking over their numbers. 1st is the fact that they play in the MEAC conference, where 8 of their members are 201st or worse in scoring. 2nd is the fact that Savannah state has played 5 teams from the power 6 conferences (Indiana, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin and Arkansas) and they allowed 78.2 ppg in those games. Tennessee is a power 6 conference team and they averaged 69 ppg overall and 72 ppg in their last 5, plus at home they have put up 71.5 ppg, so I expect them to have a good showing vs this overrated defense. The Vols on defense have been better down the stretch and they do allow just 60.8 ppg at home, while the Tigers have averaged 60.9 ppg on the road and if we can get 60 points from them here I don't see how this play loses, as I expect no less than 70 from the hometown Vols. This game should reach 130 with ease.
Iona +2 over BYU: Both teams are happy to be here, but I feel that the Gaels have been far more impressive this season than BYU. The Cougars have gone a solid 13-5 in their conference, but they were just 1-4 vs the top two teams in the WCC (St Mary's and Gonzaga), while outside their conference they had just 2 notable wins (Virginia Tech and Oregon). The Gaels had an excellent year and are led by two players that Pro Scouts have been drooling over in Scott Machado (13.6 ppg and 9.9 apg) and Mike Glover (18.5 ppg and 9 rpg). The Gales also know how to play on the road as they are 11-4 away form home and that includes a stretch of 8 straight away games in December, in which they went 6-2. No only is this team talented but they have also been tested this year, both in an out of conference, while BYU feasted mostly on a weak non-conference slate and the bottom teams of their conference. Should be a good game with plenty of points, but this Gaels offense will have the better time of it here as BYU won't stop them.
Dayton/ Iowa Under 148.5: Yes the Hawkeyes score and give up plenty of points, but I do not see this one as a high scoring game. Iowa did play a game vs Michigan State in which 167 points were scored, but that has not been the norm for them of late as all 10 of their previous games 147 points or less, with just 2 of those games putting up more than 141 points and 7 of those games at 136 or less. The Hawkeyes do allow 71.3 ppg on the year, but prior to the Michigan State game they did allow just 63.5 ppg in their previous 6 games. Dayton has averaged 71.6 ppg, but are not really a faced paced team and I don't expect them to run with the Hawkeyes here. Iowa has been solid on offense, especially at home, where they have averaged 75.9 ppg, but Dayton has been playing some solid defense of late as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Only one of Dayton's last 8 non-OT games have put up more than tonight's total, while the other 7 games have hit no higher than 140 points. This is to high an OU line here for two team that haven't normally been playing games this high of late. This one should stay in the 130's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Massachusetts +7.5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Both teams had aspirations of making the NCAA Tourney, but I feel the sting ids felt more on the side of the Bulldogs and several players have stated that this is not where they want to be. The Bulldogs have struggled down the stretch as they won just 2 of heir last 8 games, which includes 2 losses to Georgia. The last one was a 10 point loss inj the first round of the SEC tournament. If you can't get up for Georgia in that game then how will you get up for UMass in this one. The Minnutemen are disappointed about the snub as well, but this is still a team that would love to build some confidence for the future and what better way than vs an SEC school. These two teams have a lot in common, with strong offenses and suspect defenses fueled by star players, but the MInutemen want to be here, while Mississippi state is less than thrilled. This one should go down to the wire.
1 UNIT PLAY
Western Kentucky -3 over Miss Valley State: Maybe not a good Idea, but im gonna fade the sharps in this one. WKU has been rolling down the stretch as they have won their last 7 and 8 of 9 to make it to one of the 4 play in games. WKU took out Ark LR, Denver and North Texas in their tournament and I beleive that is impressive as they were dogs in all three, while Denver and Ark LR were 1-2 in the Sun Belt West. MSVAS had a very good year and they went 20-1 in the SWAC, but in their conference tourney they were not all that impressive as they beat their 3 opponents by just 9 total points. The Sexy pick here is the dog, but I believe that the Hilltoppers are playing very well right now and should keep that going with a 5+ point win here.