Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 15th, 2011

Scott Spreitzer

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
Play: New York Knicks

I'm playing the NY Knicks on Tuesday night. The Knicks are coming off a pair of bad losses, getting whipped 127-109 in Dallas, followed by a 106-93 loss at MSG to these Indiana Pacers. Coach Mike D'Antoni says his team was "gassed" due to their recent tough schedule. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt, especially with 48 hour revenge on their mind. I expect New York to have little trouble against a Pacer team that had dropped six in a row and eight of nine before taking advantage of the "tired" Knicks on Sunday. New York shot just 36% in the loss, while the Pacers "canned" 57% of their FG attempts. It must be noted that Sunday's game was Chauncey Billups first game back from injury. He had to shake of a little rust, and he did look a bit out of synch for most of the game. But I expect a normal Billups performance tonight and that spells trouble for the home team. The Knicks are not only in revenge for an ugly loss, but they're 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games, and the road team in this series is on an 8-1 ATS run. The spots continue trending in the same direction.

Charlie Scott

Fairfield vs. Colorado State
Play: Over 126.5

Here's a little play to kick off March Madness. Both teams come in rested and capable of scoring on offense. All the other games Tonight, my totals were within 1-2 points, However I made this total 137 and will stick with my #'s. Another plus in playing low totals like this, is that in Post season play the losing team will probably foul at the end of the game and try to extend their season for as long as possible.

Cajun Sports

Fairfield vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -6.5

Fairfield travels to Fort Collins for a meeting against the Rams of Colorado State on Tuesday night in the opening round of the 2011 NIT Tournament. Colorado State enters the tournament as a number three seed while Fairfield checks in as a six seed. Colorado State is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite in any contest over the last 2 seasons and 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a home favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons. The Rams have held opponents to just 44 percent shooting on their home floor and this is important on several fronts one is they are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season. Colorado State is 13-4-1 ATS as a home favorite in this price range. We want to Play ON CBB teams coming off a loss and are now playing in the post season in this price range, 54-34 ATS. Play ON CBB teams coming off a straight up loss and going Under in their last game now playing in the post season at home in this price range, 17-7 ATS their last 24 qualifying contests. Lay the points with the Rams as they roll past the Stags and advance to the next round of the NIT.

BEN BURNS

Bruins @ Blue Jackets
PICK: Under 5.5

I'm on a 10-2 run with my last 12 premium O/U plays, in all sports. That includes a perfect 8-0 mark with my basketball totals. Both losses have come on the ice - and they both were "unders," where I was done in by an empty net goal.

One of those was last night. I had the Canucks/Wild game to go "under 5.5" goals. The score was 3-2 until the Canucks scored an empty net goal with four seconds remaining in the game. (It cost me a 4-0 sweep on the night overall.)

Prior to that, the other loss in my current 10-2 O/U streak, came the last same time that these same Bruins were on the ice, back on 3/11. I had a play on Boston and the Islanders to go "under 5.5" goals. Once again, the score was 3-2 in the closing seconds. Once again, however, an empty net goal was scored in the final 10 seconds of the game.

Of course, "that's life" when you're betting "unders" in hockey. It can't stop one from pulling the trigger on the next opportunity ...

The Bruins are back on the ice tonight and I feel the "under" is providing us with solid value. Even with the recent "heartbreaker," the "under" still remains a very solid 42-28 the last 70 times that the Bruins played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5.

The Bruins are still only allowing 2.4 goals per game on the road. After allowing the Isles to score three in the third period, they should be determined to deliver an improved defensive effort. On the other hand, having had a few day's off, the offense could be a little "rusty." (*The last time that the Bruins played with three day's off in between games, they won 3-1 at Vancouver on 2/22.)

The Bruins have seen the "under" go 9-5-1 the last 15 times that they were coming off a loss by two or more goals and 9-6 against teams from the West.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have seen the "under" go a profitable 10-3 against teams from the East.

Three straight meetings between these teams have stayed below the total. Those games averaged only three combined goals. Consider the Under

Jim Feist

Kent at St. Mary's
Pick: Over

A long road trip for Kent State, a team that struggles defensively away from home. Kent is also 9-3 over the total in the Golden Flashes last 12 games overall. West Coast Conference co-champion Saint Mary has a terrific offense, led by leading scorer Mickey McConnell, who was named the WCC Player of the Year by league. The St. Mary's Gaels are 23-11 over the total in their last 34 non-conference games. Play Kent/St. Mary's Over the total.

James Patrick Sports

Jacksonville vs. East Carolina

The East Carolina Pirates are (8-20-2) ATS in their last (30) games as a favorite and had some bad luck in the CUSA Semi Finals when their leader and point guard suffered a leg injury. Jacksonville also earned a spot in the NIT a year ago where it even upended top-seeded Arizona State for its first postseason win since 1974. Big Game James Patrick's College Basketball complimentary selection is Jacksonville Dolphins.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Kent State at St. Marys

While the Golden Flashes may be 0-5 ATS in NIT Games, this is way too many points for them to be taking against a St. Mary's team that simply never put it together in 2011. In their last visit here, Kent won outright on a Bracket Buster weekend, and we like road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off a SU loss as a favorite matched up against an opponent off a home win. That's a 60% winning situation since 1997!

Play on: Kent State

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +105 over MONTREAL

The Caps play twice in Montreal over the next 10 days and this is as good a time as any for them to send a message to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago. That was a stunning upset that the Caps have not forgotten. These two have played twice this year with each team winning in the other’s team building. Washington enjoyed a 3-0 victory in Montreal back in late December while the Canadiens replied on Feb 1 by defeating the Capitals 3-2 in OT. In the latter game the Caps were minus star Alexander Semin and the game was played prior to the trade that brought two more key players in Jason Arnott and Denis Wideman. The Caps have been a defensive juggernaut for weeks now and have been rewarded with 10 wins in 11 games including Sunday’s 4-3 win over the surging Blackhawks. The Habs are inferior in every way to the Caps other than in goal. Washington is hot, motivated and very capable of taking this one. Play: Washington +105 (Risking 2 units).

COLUMBUS +130 over Boston

The Jackets are an enigma. Columbus opened the year on fire and then hit a wall for about two months before waking up again in early February in which they went on another run that saw them pick up points in 10 of 12 games. They have defeated every powerhouse in the league this season and have lost to just about every dreg. They’ve also been the streakiest team in the NHL and just snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Hurricanes to put them in a much better frame of mind. The Bruins come in losers of four straight and they haven’t looked sharp in any of them. Boston is not scoring goals and its defense has been horrible. The Bruins were completely dominated by both Buffalo and the Islanders in their last two games, allowing a combined 86 shots on net. The Bruins current form does not warrant being priced in this range and we will take full advantage. Play: Columbus +130 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +169 over N.Y. RANGERS

Even when the Islanders were at their very worst over the years they’ve always given the Rangers fits. Now the Isles are playing outstanding hockey and that can be largely attributed to the dazzling goaltending that has been absent for quite some time. In addition, they’re scoring goals at a great pace and their defense is as healthy as it’s been all season long. The Islanders have picked up points in an incredible 14 of their past 17 games with two losses over that span occurring against the hottest team in the league, the Devils. The Rangers return home after a brief two-game trip that took them the West Coast to face the Ducks and Sharks. A two game trip is typically insignificant but when you are traveling through three time zones, that’s a different story. The Rangers have been weak in their own building and remain below the .500 mark at MSG. In terms of value, no matter how you break this one down, the red-hot Islanders offer up plenty of it and at this price are a must play. Big overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +169 (Risking 2 units).

FLORIDA +154 over Philadelphia

These teams that are out of the playoff hunt with just a handful of games left have proven to be dangerous over the years and this season is no different. The Panthers are playing loosey-goosey right now while making life miserable for teams vying for post-season activity. Florida just defeated the Lightning and in three recent games against Tampa, Chicago and Washington, it has picked up five of a possible six points. Now the Panthers catch a Flyer team that is laboring. The Flyers have two wins in their last seven games with both wins coming against non-playoff teams, Toronto and Edmonton. They’re also coming off a demoralizing loss to the Thrashers in a game where they had a three-goal lead going into the third period. Philadelphia, as has become customary, has goaltending issues and it is clearly affecting the level of play throughout. The absence of Chris Pronger doesn’t help matters either, but the combination serves our purpose well. Play: Florida +154 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +105 over NASHVILLE

How can you not take the Kings here? Here’s a team that has underachieved for the better part of this season but has since awakened at precisely the right time. The Kings have shot up from 11th in the West all the way to fifth in the span of 10 days and now sit just one point behind the Blackhawks for fourth. L.A. has picked up points in 19 of its past 22 games. They’ve won three in a row and eight of 10. They also have recent wins in Detroit and Dallas and surely they’re not taking a step up in class here. The Preds have won back-to-back games but beat two hugely struggling clubs in Minnesota and Colorado. Combined, that duo has five wins in their last 33 games. Prior to those two wins the Preds had won two of their previous nine games. Win lose or draw here, the Kings taking back a tag is the prudent choice and one that should not be missed. Play: Los Angeles +105 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

Motivated by Sunday's brutally embarrassing loss at Boston, I expect the Bucks to bounce back strong against an Atlanta team they have won 2 of 3 against this season. The Hawks will be out to even the season series, but the history books tell us that will be no easy task in this spot. In fact, plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points looking to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, if that foe is coming off an embarrassing road loss in which it was held to less than 80 points, are 30-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Atlanta has struggled in revenge spots. Consider that the Hawks are 1-8 ATS in home games this season when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. Atlanta is actually losing these contests by an average score of 99.0 to 92.9. Atlanta is also 8-19 ATS as a home favorite this season, including 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Bet the Bucks.

Matt Fargo

Fairfield vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -6.5

Of all of the regular season conference champions that failed to win their tournaments and not make it to the NCAA Tournament, Fairfield has to be the biggest disappointment. The Stags had won 22 of 24 games before losing the season finale at Iona. After a win over Marist, Fairfield was upset by St. Peter's by 14 points which killed any shot at the big Dance. Now the Stags have to try and regroup in a bad NIT draw as they have to travel west on short notice, something they are never used to doing. Colorado St. also had hopes of a possible NCAA Tournament big but a slump at the end of the season ended those dreams. The Rams come into this game with losses in five of their last six games but to their credit all five losses came against teams that are currently in one of the postseason tournaments and only one of those losses came at home. It has been a great turnaround in Fort Collins as just two years ago, the Rams logged a 0-16 record in the MWC. Now they can continue to move up. Fairfield coach Ed Cooley has done a tremendous job resurrecting the Stag program, and winning the regular-season title is quite an accomplishment. Closing the deal by winning the MAAC tournament was the ultimate judgment on the year and they were not able to get it done. Getting the top seed and hosting, set up Fairfield for its potential fourth NCAA tournament appearance in school history so the postseason was put on a platter and they failed to grab it and this is a very disappointed team. Prior to the MAAC Tournament, Colley went on to say how important it was. "I hope we win this year,' he said. "If we win, who knows, maybe we'll be a 13 at best. I haven't been to the NCAA in five years [since leaving Boston College as an assistant]. I want to get there.' That makes playing in the NIT very difficult. The Stags are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home while Colorado St. is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. 3* Colorado St. Rams

Rob Vinciletti

Hofstra vs. Evansville
Play: Hofstra +2.5

Hofstra is a live dog here tonight as they travel to Santa Clara knowing they are a perfect 6-0 straight up the last 3 years as a road dog of 3 or less points. In their last game they allowed a season high 57% from the field. As we look at the mediocre defensive performance we note that Hofstra has won 3 of the next 4 games after allowing 50% or higher from the field in their previous game. They are a 21 win teams and take on an Evansville team that is .500 on the year and lucky to be in any post season tournament. Evansville is just 5-11 vs winning teams, 3-7 after allowing 60 or less points and 6-17, including 0-4 most recently in all tournament games. Look for Hofstra to get the cash tonight.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: New York Knicks -4½

Indiana is 28-38 straight up this year. The Pacers are 1-10-1 ATS their last 12 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. The Pacers are 5-11-1 ATS their last 17 games following a straight up win vs. a team with winning record. New York is 34-31 straight up this year. The Knicks are 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 road games. New York is 49-24-2 ATS their last 75 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knicks are 9-2-1 ATS their last 12 games off a straight up loss. New York is 5-0 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The road team in this series is 8-1 ATS.

BIG AL

Dallas @ Portland
PICK: Dallas -1.5

Both teams come into this game off losses, but at least Dallas has an excuse: It lost to the best team in the league, or at least the team which is playing the best, and that’s the Lakers. In a preview of what will likely be the 2nd round Playoff match-up out West, Los Angeles showed Dallas that the road to the NBA Championship still goes thru Tinseltown, and the Lakers prevailed 96-91. Portland also lost on Saturday at Atlanta, as it shot just 35% from the field, and that was its second straight defeat, after a 5-point loss at Charlotte the previous night. These two teams have met twice already this season, with the Mavs winning both by single-digit margins. This game, though, will be the first at the Rose Garden, but the Mavericks are a solid 30-16 ATS their last 46 road games, including 14-2 ATS when the line has been 3 points or less. Take Dallas.

Sam Martin

Ohio University at Marshall
Prediction: Marshall

We can't ignore the fact of the Thundering Herd beating this Ohio U Bobcats team earlier this season, winning by eight points as a 4.5-point road underdog back in early December. Now Marshall will have the home court advantage and take the court with confidence from that win - a game they held the Bobcats to just 57 points on 33% shooting. Marshall is 14-3 at home this year, and outscoring those opponents by an average of 14 points per game. They won't have to win by that much to cover this spread. 5* Play on Marshall.