Tony George
Boston College -6
McNeese State Cowboys lost by an average of 22 points against five BCS schools in their non conference slate. Boston College on the road here, and after a hot Clemson pasted them in the ACC tourney, I expect them to win this by 12-14 points. BC won their last 3 road games of the season, one against VT, and all games won by an average margin of victory by over 15 ppg. Could go on and on, but in this case, a HUGE step up in class for the Cowboys, and as evidenced by non conference foes pounding them, I expect the same result, BC big time battle tested.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHARLESTON –5 over Dayton
What an interesting first round NIT game. The Dayton Flyers are the higher profile team, they’re the #3 seed in the NIT and they play in the tough A-10 conference. In addition, they are the defending NIT champs. Dayton has a rich history here with three titles and 23 appearances. Conversely, the Charleston Cougars are unrecognizable. They come in as a #6 seed and they play in the weaker Southern Conference with a bunch of other unknowns. So why are the Cougars not only favored but favored by a significant five points? It could be based on the Flyers subpar year, losing to several inferior teams. However, once the A-10 tourney started, Dayton woke up and had a chance to punch their ticket to the Dance with a win over Richmond on Sunday. That didn’t happen, as they fell behind by 15 points early and never got closer than seven. The disappointment and mental toll it took on them is evident in this line. And it’s not like the Cougars are some pushover. This is a squad that went 24-10 on year and achieved that with a potent offence that finds ways to put the ball in the bucket. Some notable losses included a five-point defeat at North Carolina, a seven-point loss to Clemson and a one-point setback at Maryland. The Flyers may have the pedigree here but the line itself says otherwise, as we have a talented no-name lower seed laying significant points against a well-known program. Play: Charleston –5 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
MCNEESE STATE +6 over Boston College Pinnacle
The B.C. Eagles reside in the power ACC conference and racked up a modest 9-7 record in that conference. A chance for a trip to the Dance was squashed when they lost to Clemson in the second game of the ACC tourney after beating Maryland in the opener. This is an Eagles offense that can go very cold for long stretches and that was evident again on Friday when they put up 47 points. Boston College managed to score less than 50 points in three of its final seven games this season. That certainly is not an endorsement for spotting road points. Conversely, the Cowboys rank 45th in the nation in scoring while dressing four players averaging better than double-digits. They also have the advantage of playing at home, where the Cowboys were an impressive 15-1. One can never discount the disappointment these known programs feel when missing the Madness and having to compete in this reject tournament. Not only can the Cowboys stay well within this margin they could easily pull the upset. Play: NcNeese St +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Rider +5 over NORTHERN IOWA Pinnacle
You simply can’t ignore the fact that the Panthers were dreadful down the stretch with seven losses in their last eight games. Losing is contagious and it’s rare for a team to turn off that losing switch once the post-season begins. The Panthers are rock-solid defensively but they’re a huge risk laying points because of an offense that’s atrocious. By contrast, Rider won six of its past seven games. This is a terrific shooting team that hit a healthy 47.1 percent from the field and connected on an impressive 40.1 percent of its attempts from behind the arc. So, what we have here is a great-shooting Broncs team with momentum and taking back points playing a demoralized Panther club that has to scratch and claw for every basket. Not a good recipe for spotting points. Play: Rider +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Tony Stoffo
Islanders vs. Rangers
Play: Over 5.5
For tonight I look for a battle in the Garden as the Islanders and Rangers face off. In three of their 4 meetings so far this season there has been 9, 10, and 11 goals scored. With the way both teams are playing right now I really look for another exciting wide open game here tonight making the Over the highly recommended play in this spot. Over is 7-1 in Islanders last 8 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Over is 4-1-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. Atlantic.
Ray Monohan
Hofstra vs. Evansville
Play: Hofstra +2½
The Hofstra Pride are looking to pick up a win and advance to the 2nd round of the CBI Tournament when they take on Evansville. I'm not a fan of Evansville at all this year. 5-11 vs. teams with winning record, 0-4 in their last 4 "tournament games", and 6-5 against non-conference opponents. The MVC does not impress me, and I'm married to a Shocker Alum so I should be loyal to them! The Hofstra Pride are 10-4 while on the road this season, 15-5 against conference opponents, and 6-6 against non-conference opponents. On the road or neutral court, the Pride are averaging 69.6 scoring, and holding teams to 69.9 points scored on defense. The winner will face the winning side in the Austin Peay vs Boise St. game in the CBI qtr. finals. Trends I like in this one include, Hofstra is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road, are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, and are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Evansville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games, and are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Ohio +7
Ohio is an impressive 6-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Bobcats are winning these contests by an average score of 80.1 to 78.3. In addition, Ohio is an awesome 8-0 ATS in its last 8 first round tournament games played on the road. It is winning these contests by an average score of 71.3 to 66.1. Lastly, I feel it is also worth noting that Marshall is 0-6 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Ohio and the points tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Davidson -2
Davidson laying just 2 points at home tonight is an absolute gift from odds makers. This team has only gotten stronger and was really a solid team in the second half of the season. Davidson is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall, and 9-3 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 13.0 points/game. James Madison had a solid year, but were not good down the stretch. JMU went just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS over their final nine games. Davidson is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997, while James Madison is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997. Take Davidson and lay the points.
Steve Janus
Trail Blazers +2
I really like getting the Blazers as an underdog at home. Portland is 21-10 at home this season, and are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. While it won't take a lot to get the Blazers ready to play one of the Western Conference best teams, the fact that this team has lost two straight really gives them a lot of value tonight.
Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, and are 0-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. Bet the Trail Blazers!
Jack Jones
Saint Mary's -11.5
St. Mary's is certainly a worthy NCAA Tournament candidate, and clearly one of the top teams in the NIT. The Gaels put their 25-8 record to the test against an overmatched Kent State team tonight. St. Mary's has one of the best home-court advantages in the country where they are 16-2 this season. Not only are they beating teams at home, they are embarrassing them by 20.6 PPG on average. Kent State hasn't recovered mentally from their crushing 1-point loss to Akron in the MAC Championship game. I don't even see them showing up tonight as they travel out to the west coast to face the Gaels.
Kent State plays in a weak conference, which is a big reason why the Flashes are just 9-27 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Gaels are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 non-conference games. The Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Gaels are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. All signs point toward a blowout home victory for the Gaels. Take Saint Mary's Tuesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Mavericks/Trail Blazers UNDER 189
We'll make a small play on the Under in this matchup considering the strong statistical evidence in its favor. Plays Under on all teams (Dallas in this case) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games, are 121-65 (65.1%) the last 5 seasons and 17-5 (77%) this season. Teams fitting into this situation are combining with their opponent to score 182.3 points on average. Bet the Under.
Info Plays
3* UAB +5
Reasons why UAB will cover:
1) All the talk about how UAB doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, is only going to light a fire under this team. The Blazers are more talented than people give them credit for. Outside of blowout loss to Duke and a bad road loss to Tulsa, UAB didn't lose any other game by more than 5 points all season.
2) UAB has played extremely well on the road this season, going 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
3) The Blazers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games as an underdog, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Sean Murphy
Fairfield @ Colorado State
PICK: Fairfield +6.5
These consolation tournaments are all about motivation, and here we have a Fairfield Stags squad with no shortage of it.
The Stags were the favorite to win the MAAC Tournament and move on to the big dance, but St. Peter's had other ideas, jumping out to a 40-15 lead at halftime in the semi-finals - Fairfield made a big second half push, but ultimately fell by a score of 62-48.
Fairfield actually hosted that tournament, making the loss that much tougher to swallow. But this is a veteran team that's had a full week off to recover and recharge for postseason basketball.
The Stags have been terrific bouncing back from a loss, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 opportunities.
Colorado State was a solid bet for much of the season, but went out with a whimper, dropping five of its last six games SU (2-4 ATS) including an early exit at the hands of New Mexico in the MWC Tournament. We cashed a 10* ticket against them in that contest and won't hesitate to go back to the well here.
Asking the Rams to not only win this game, but win by a significant margin is asking an awful lot in my opinion. This is a program that hasn't played in a postseason tournament since reaching the NCAAs way back in 2003.
By contrast, Fairfield took part in the CIT last year, and actually went on the road and beat a quality George Mason squad in the opening round. Most of the key pieces from that Stags team remain in the mix.
Andy Ogide is one of the few bright spots for Colorado State right now. He's been a force in the paint, but even his scoring tear down the stretch hasn't proven to be enough.
With PG Adam Nigon hobbled (he's expected to play, but won't be at 100%) and the entire team lacking postseason experience, I'll take the points, but won't be shocked if Fairfield pulls the upset. Take Fairfield.
Larry Ness
Ohio @ Marshall
PICK: Ohio +7.5
irst-round action continues in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament as Marshall hosts Ohio U. The Bobcats (18-15) shocked Georgetown in the first round of LY’s NCAAs but didn’t last long in this year’s MAC tourney, falling 76-73 in OT to Ball St in the quarterfinals. Marshall comes in 22-11, after beating Houston in the first round of C-USA’s tourney before losing at UTEP, 77-65. Ohio is playing in the postseason for the third time in four years, which is actually the school’s best run since making three consecutive postseasons in the mid-1980s. The Thundering Herd took part in the CIT last year, opening with a 90-88 home win over Western Carolina but then losing 80-72 at home to Appalachian State. The Bobcats played well down the stretch, winning NINE of its last 12 regular season games before beating Toledo and then losing to Ball St. DJ Cooper (ask the Hoyas if they remember him?) led Ohio by scoring 16.2 PPG but also added 5.1 RPG, 7.5 APG (No. 1 in the MAC) plus finished near the top of the league with 77 steals. The 6-7 Washington (13.0-5.6) and the 6-9 Baltic (11.6-6.2) give the Bobcats a solid tandem in the paint plus 6-5 small forward Freeman (11.4) is a deadly-accurate shooter from the three-point line (44.1 percent). Marshall makes just 32.8% from long-range but owns an excellent guard duo in Pitts (16.1-4.8 APG) and Kane (15.2-3.4 APG) but the 6-6 tandem of Baines (12.6-6.6) and Thomas (9.2-4.6) could struggle vs Ohio’s frontcourt. Marshall won 65-57 in Athens back on Dec 4, as the Bobcats made just 33.3 percent. I’m taking the points in this rematch (these schools don’t like each other), as while Marshall is 14-3 SU at home, the team is 0-4 ATS when laying more than six points on its home court. Revenge works.
Teddy Covers
Fairfield @ Colorado State
PICK: Fairfield +6.5
Colorado State really struggled down the stretch; a shell of the team that looked like a serious contender in the Mountain West Conference in January. The Rams hung tough with San Diego State and BYU early, while winning on the road at UNLV and at home against New Mexico, the four MWC heavyweights. But this team collapsed when it mattered most, losing five of their last six games. And we can look back over the past two full months and see only two Colorado State wins by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread. Even when the Rams win, they don’t often win by margin.
Fairfield was the best team in the MAAC this year, but they got blitzed in the first half of their conference tournament semi-final game against St Peters, trailing 40-15 at the break on their own home floor. This is a deep, veteran squad that went 9-4 SU on the highway this season; primed to make amends for their awful first half against the Peacocks. Stags point guard Derek Needham will be the best player on the floor tonight, a mitey mite capable of giving the Rams mediocre defense fits. Expect a competitive contest, right through the final buzzer. 2* Take Fairfield
Lenny Del Genio
Coastal Carolina at Alabama
Prediction: Coastal Carolina
Here's something you don't find too often. The better team taking double digit points! Granted, this game is in Tuscaloosa, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are faced with overcoming the disappointment of not making the "real" tournament they were hoping for and an angry Chanticleers squad that was upset in its conference tourney. Alabama is just 1-5 ATS off its last six double digit losses. Take Coastal Carolina.
Stan Lisowski
Santa Clara
The Broncos were 13-5 outright as a host this season, while Northern Arizona posted a 6-11 straight up mark away from home. Santa Clara owns a win over Northern Colorado, a club that the Lumberjacks lost twice to, the most recent of which was in the Big Sky semis. Home chalk in this price range of this tournament are hitting just under 80% winners of late.