SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
(at Dayton, Ohio)
Winthrop (19-13, 2-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15, 1-4 ATS)
Winthrop scored consecutive upsets in the Big South tournament, capped by a 64-53 win over Coastal Carolina as a nine-point underdog in the championship game on March 6, to clinch their fifth Big Dance berth in the last six years. The Eagles had lost three of four to end the regular season in third place in the Big South standings, but they swept three games in the conference tourney, also knocking off Liberty (80-72, falling short as an 8½-point favorite) and Radford (61-46 as a 2½-point ‘dog).
Arkansas Pine-Bluff topped Texas-Southern 50-38 as a two-point favorite on Saturday to capture the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship and secure its first ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Golden Lions have won four in a row and 11 of their last 12, and their only two losses since mid-January came against Jackson State, which won the SWAC regular-season title.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
While the Golden Lions are in the Tournament for the first time in school history, Winthrop is making its ninth appearance, all since 1999. The Eagles are 1-8 SU all-time, the lone victory being a 74-64 first-round upset of Notre Dame as a 3½-point underdog in 2007.
In addition to going 2-1 ATS in their conference tournament, the Eagles played one other lined game this season, and that was a Bracket Buster contest at Eastern Kentucky, and they got hammered 77-57 as a 7½-point road ‘dog. That dropped Winthrop to 0-4-1 ATS in its last five lined non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on spread-covering surges of 11-3 at neutral sites, 12-5 as an underdog, 8-3 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 8-3 when catching points at neutral venues.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff’s easy win and cover in the SWAC championship ended a 0-5 ATS slump. However, the Golden Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory.
The favorite has won the last three “play-in” games, and after a 5-1 ATS run by the underdog in this event, the chalk has cashed in the last two.
Winthrop’s recent lined contests have been low-scoring affairs, as it is on “under” runs of 20-8 overall, 4-0 in NCAA Tournament games, 14-3 at neutral sites, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, the Golden Lions stayed low in three of their last four lined games, including the last two in the SWAC tournament.
The winner of tonight’s game at Dayton Arena heads to Jacksonville, Fla., to face top-seeded Duke on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WINTHROP and UNDER
NIT
N.C. State (19-15, 17-13-1 ATS) at South Florida (20-12, 19-10-2 ATS)
The Wolfpack made a valiant run to the ACC tournament semifinals last weekend, eventually falling to Georgia Tech 57-54 on Saturday, but cashing as a four-point underdog. N.C. State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and actually had a three-point lead late but couldn’t hang on. Still, the Wolfpack have rebounded from an 0-5 slump (1-4 ATS) to win five of their last seven, going 6-1 ATS including 4-0 ATS in the last four.
South Florida ended the regular season with three straight victories over Providence, DePaul and UConn, then got past DePaul again a week ago in the opening round of the Big East tournament (58-49 as a seven-point favorite). However, the Bulls’ Big Dance dreams ended the following day in an ugly 69-49 loss to Georgetown as a 6½-point underdog. The SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in South Florida’s last nine games.
The Wolfpack are back in the postseason for the first time since 2007, when they won their first two games of the NIT before losing to West Virginia, finishing 2-0-1 ATS. South Florida’s last qualified for postseason play in 2002, losing an opening-round NIT game at Ball State.
The Bulls are 11-4 at home (8-4-2 ATS), while N.C. State has lost seven of 11 on the road, but it is 7-4 ATS. This is the first meeting between these schools.
N.C. State’s 4-0 ATS run overall is buoyed by pointspread streaks of 18-7-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 against winning teams. The Bulls are on ATS upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 9-3 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC, 3-0-1 on Tuesday and 9-4 versus winning teams.
The Wolfpack are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover, while South Florida has stayed low in eight of 11 overall, four of five versus the ACC and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is 4-1 in N.C. State’s last five against ACC competition and 6-2 in South Florida’s last eight at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Texas Tech (17-15, 15-11 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (19-12, 8-17 ATS)
Texas Tech ended a seven-game losing skid with an 82-67 rout of Colorado as a one-point underdog in Wednesday’s opening round of the Big 12 tournament. The Red Raiders then gave top-seeded and top-ranked Kansas a bit of a scare the next day, eventually coming up well in an 80-68 loss but easily covered as a 17½-point underdog. The back-to-back spread-covers came on the heels of a 2-5 ATS funk.
A 7-3 end-of-season hot streak wasn’t enough to get the Pirates invited to the big party. They ended regular-season play with a pair of double-digit road wins over Rutgers and Providence, then they matched up with Providence again a week ago today in the Big East tournament and nearly blew a 29-point second-half lead, holding on 109-106 as a 5½-point favorite. However, Seton Hall was no match for Notre Dame the following day, losing 68-56 as a 2½-point pup.
This is Texas Tech’s first postseason appearance since losing an opening-round NCAA Tournament game in 2007. Seton Hall hasn’t played this deep into March since losing a first-round Tournament game to Wichita State in 2006.
The Red Raiders, who have never faced Seton Hall, are 3-9 in true road games this year (5-6 ATS in lined action). The Pirates are 13-4 at the Prudential Center, but a woeful 3-9 ATS in lined contests.
Texas Tech has cashed in six of its last seven non-conference games, but it has failed to cover in 17 of 22 on Tuesday and is 0-4-1 ATS in the last five against Big East opponents. The Pirates are on pointspread slides of 6-16 overall, 0-6 at home, 1-4 versus winning teams and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five against the Big East, 4-1-1 in Seton Hall’s last six non-conference tussles and 6-1 in Seton Hall’s last seven Tuesday outings. However, Tech is on “over” streaks of 22-8 on the highway, 12-3-1 in all non-league games, 23-11-2 after a SU defeat and 5-2 on Tuesday, while the Pirates have topped the total in four of five overall and four of five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER
William & Mary (22-10, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina (16-16, 10-20 ATS)
William & Mary nearly punched its first-ever ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but came up short to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship on March 8, losing 60-53 but cashing as a nine-point underdog. Although that defeat snapped a three-game losing skid for the Tribe, they still enter their first-ever postseason game having won seven of 10 both SU and ATS.
One year after winning their fifth NCAA title, the Tar Heels find themselves out of the Big Dance for the first time failing to qualify in both 2002 and 2003. North Carolina started the year strong, winning 10 of their first 13 games (with the three losses coming to Syracuse, Kentucky and Texas, three teams that spent time ranked No. 1 this season). Then injuries piled up, the Tar Heels suffered a stunning 82-79 overtime loss at Charleston, followed by an ugly ACC campaign that saw them go 5-12 SU and ATS.
After getting destroyed at Duke in the regular-season finale March 6 (82-50 as a 15-point road underdog), the Heels went one-and-one in the conference tournament for the first time ever, falling to Georgia Tech 62-56 as a 3½-point underdog Thursday. The last time UNC was in the NIT was 2003, when it went 2-1 SU and ATS, losing a third-round game to Georgetown at home.
These teams met in 2005 in Chapel Hill, N.C., and even though North Carolina rolled 105-66, the Tribe barely got inside the whopping 40½-point spread.
William & Mary was 12-7 (12-6 ATS) on the highway this year, including 10-6 in true road games (10-5 ATS).
The Tribe’s ATS hot streaks include 7-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC and 10-4 after a SU defeat. North Carolina had one of the worst pointspread records in the country this season, ranking 224th out of 329 lined teams. And while the Heels have cashed in 43 of 61 non-conference games and four of five on Tuesday, they’re sill in pointspread funks of 5-14 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-6 after either a SU or ATS loss and 4-11 against winning teams.
William & Mary is riding “under” streaks of 16- overall, 11-1 on the highway, 5-1 after a SU defeat and 6-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, the Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday, 13-3 after a SU loss and 10-2 following an ATS setbacks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
San Antonio (39-25, 33-30-1 ATS) at Miami (35-32, 34-33 ATS)
Two teams riding three-game winning streaks hook up at American Airlines Arena in South Beach, where the Heat continue their playoff push when they host the Spurs.
San Antonio has been idle since Saturday’s 118-88 beat-down of the Clippers, easily covering as an 11½-point home favorite. In addition to winning their last three in a row, the Spurs are on a 7-1 SU surge, and they’ve cashed in a season-best seven consecutive games. During this eight-game push, San Antonio is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road, the only setback being a 97-95 loss at Cleveland eight days ago. Still, the Spurs remain a .500 team on the highway (15-15, 14-16 ATS).
Miami has won three in a row SU and ATS, all in double-digit fashion and all at home. The Heat pummeled the Clippers 108-97 on Tuesday, the Bulls 108-95 on Thursday and the 76ers 104-91 on Sunday. They’ve started off the month 6-1 SU, with all six victories coming in American Airlines Arena. Miami also has followed up an 0-4 ATS drought by going 5-1 ATS in the last six. For the season, Dwyane Wade and Co. are 20-14 in South Beach (17-17 ATS).
San Antonio swept the season series from the Heat last year, winning 91-84 in Miami as a 3½-point favorite and cruising 108-78 as a 7½-point home chalk. The Spurs have won seven of the last nine meetings, and their two spread-covers last year ended Miami’s 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
In addition to cashing in seven straight games overall and four straight on the road, the Spurs are on ATS upticks of 9-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Miami is on pointspread runs of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-2 versus Western Conference woes, 4-0 against the Southwest Division, 4-0 after a day off, 5-1 following a double-digit win and 15-7-1 on Tuesday.
The under has cashed in six straight meetings between these squads and 17 of the last 19 overall. That includes an 8-1 “under” streak in Miami. On top of that, the Spurs are on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 14-6 on the road, 10-3-1 in Eastern Conference games, 36-16-2 versus the Southeast Division and 7-1 versus winning teams. Finally, Miami carries “under” trends of 14-2 against winning teams, 15-7 against the Southwest Division, 34-16-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 on Tuesday.
Conversely, the Heat have topped the total in six straight home games and six of their last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
Matt Fargo
Texas Tech vs. Seton Hall
Play: Texas Tech +9
In a normal situation, Seton Hall would be worth a look here but this situation is far from normal. The Pirates do not have much interest in playing in the NIT as they were holding out hope to make the NCAA Tournament with their 9-9 regular season conference record and 1-1 record in the Big East Tournament but it was pretty much a guarantee that they had no chance in an at-large bid. Seton Hall was respectable in the conference but it was far from dominant as it defeated only two teams by double-digits and those were against Providence and Rutgers, both of which finished the season under .500. As a favorite of more than five points, the Pirates are 1-6 ATS on the season. Texas Tech started the season very well as it got off to a 9-0 start and was ranked at one point. A 15-point loss at New Mexico turned the season around as the Red Raiders won only seven more games the rest of the way but the fact that it is playing in the NIT is a pretty big reward for a team that went 4-12 in the Big XII during the regular season. I do not think the Red Raiders should be playing in the postseason to be honest but here they are and that makes a bigger difference as motivation now comes into play. An extended season is a huge bonus for a team that even it thought would not happen. The Pirates also have some added turmoil they don’t need as forward Robert Mitchell was dismissed from the team for remarks he made against head coach Bobby Gonzalez. He told a reporter that “it's hard to stay consistent as a player, when the coach isn't consistent.” While this may be an isolated opinion, there is the possibility that it is felt by others and Mitchell was the only one who spoke out. This is something you don’t want to hear at any point in the season and even more so during a one-and-done scenario. 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders
BEN BURNS
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators -180
The Senators entered the Olympic Break on a major roll. In fact, they had won 14 of 16 games and that included an 11-game winning streak. However, they've cooled right off, since the break. Since the Olympics ended, they've gone 1-4-1. That should have them playing with a 'sense of urgency' this evening.
Ottawa coach Cory Clouston said as much: "We just have to play a little bit more urgent. Before the break, we were playing like we had something to lose and we built up such - I don't want to say a big cushion for playoffs - but we relaxed a little bit. We've got to start treating these games like playoff games."
The Sens should have some added motivation here, as the Leafs have actually beaten them three straight times. Even with those results, however, the Leafs are just 6-13 (-6.8) against divisional opponents while the Sens are 12-8 (+3.2) when they've faced teams from within their own division.
While the Leafs have admittedly been better recently, they're still among the league's weaker teams and they're coming off a 4-1 loss to the Islanders last time out.
The Leafs recent win at Ottawa was the only time they won a road game all season long, when the O/U line was 5.5. The Sens, on the other hand, are 17-7 when playing a home game with a total of 5.5. With the Sens also at 9-1 (+8.8) the last 10 times that they were playing with two day's rest in between games, consider laying the wood with the revenge-minded home team.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami
PICK: San Antonio Spurs
Both San Antone and Miami come into tonight's game playing great basketball. The Spurs have won seven of their last eight (covering six), while Miami has won six of seven (covering five). Obviously, something has to give tonight, and I think it will be the Heat. Over the last few years, it's been profitable to go against the Spurs when they had to play the previous night, and with them when they played a game with at least two days' of rest. And that's the case tonight, as the Spurs have had Sunday + Monday off following Saturday's win over the Clippers. The Spurs are a solid 92-63 in this situation, including 12-2 ATS on the road if they are NOT an underdog of 2+ points, and their opponent is off a straight-up win. These two teams met on New Year's Eve, and San Antonio throttled Miami for a 30-point victory, 108-78, and I foresee another easy win by Gregg Popovich's crew tonight. Take the Spurs.
Jim Feist
Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Washington Wizards +14
The second of a back to back spot for both teams. Denver has home court, but won't be a rested team. They are home following a 4-game road trip and had to play at Houston last night. Denver is laying a big price here, but the Nuggets are 1-6 ATS their last 7 times as a favorite of 9 or more. They are 0-3 ATS the last three times, too, winning the games by just 5, 3 and 6. Teams aren't always sharp in that first game back after a long trip, too. The value is with the visitors, who are 2-2 ATS their last four times as a double digit dog (that includes a straight up win). Play the Wizards.
James Patrick Sports
Bulls vs. Grizzlies
The Bulls head to Memphis to take on the Bears and their visits to Memphis haven't paid off with an (0-4) ATS mark and the home team has cashed the winning ticket in (15) of (18) match-ups.Big Game James Patrick's NBA selection on Fan Appreciation Day is Memphis Grizzlies.
DUNKEL
Charlotte at Indiana
The Bobcats look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Charlotte is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1 1/2)
Game 551-552: Charlotte at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.762; Indiana 116.700
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 4; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1 1/2); Under
Game 553-554: San Antonio at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.225; Miami 123.001
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 555-556: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.659; Detroit 114.293
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 9 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-9 1/2); Over
Game 557-558: Atlanta at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.455; New Jersey 117.730
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 559-560: Chicago at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.797; Memphis 120.567
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 561-562: Washington at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.662; Denver 126.807
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 15; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 13 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-13 1/2); Under
Game 563-564: Minnesota at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.830; Phoenix 124.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 14; 220
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 565-566: LA Lakers at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.632; Sacramento 116.868
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Winthrop vs. AR-Pine Bluff
The Eagles come into the play-in game looking to take advantage of an Arkansas-Pine Bluff team that is coming off a win over Texas Southern in the SWAC final and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win. Winthrop is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (-4 1/2)
Game 567-568: Winthrop vs. AR-Pine Bluff
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 51.690; AR-Pine Bluff 42.757
Dunkel Line: Winthrop by 9
Vegas Line: Winthrop by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (-4 1/2)
Game 569-570: Northeastern at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 59.112; Connecticut 67.070
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 8
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+8 1/2)
Game 571-572: NC State at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 62.586; South Florida 67.559
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 5
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-4)
Game 573-574: Coastal Carolina at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 56.081; UAB 63.282
Dunkel Line: UAB by 7
Vegas Line: UAB by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (+10 1/2)
Game 575-576: Texas Tech at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 62.746; Seton Hall 68.981
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 6
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+8 1/2)
Game 577-578: William & Mary at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 55.008; North Carolina 67.108
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 12
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-8 1/2)
Game 579-580: Jackson State at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 44.335; Mississippi State 66.962
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 23
Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (+23)
Game 581-582: Jacksonville at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 55.329; Arizona State 67.189
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 12
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+15 1/2)
Game 589-590: VCU at George Washington
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 64.059; George Washington 58.401
Dunkel Line: VCU by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-2 1/2)
Game 591-592: Indiana State at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 58.131; St. Louis 64.615
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+7 1/2)
Game 597-598: Fairfield at George Mason
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 58.891; George Mason 58.318
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 1
Vegas Line: George Mason by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+1 1/2)
Game 599-600: Western Carolina at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 51.679; Marshall 65.280
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-11 1/2)
Game 601-602: South Dakota at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 49.685; Creighton 61.816
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 12
Vegas Line: Creighton by 14
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota (+14)
NHL
Philadelphia at Nashville
The Flyers look to build on their 11-3 record in their last 14 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Philadelphia is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100)
Game 1-2: Boston at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.068; Carolina 10.359
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); Under
Game 3-4: Buffalo at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.068; Atlanta 11.287
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Under
Game 5-6: Montreal at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.160; NY Rangers 12.141
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under
Game 7-8: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.597; Florida 11.612
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 9-10: Toronto at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.839; Ottawa 10.871
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Under
Game 11-12: Phoenix at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.640; Tampa Bay 12.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over
Game 13-14: Edmonton at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.020; Minnesota 10.689
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-255); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+215); Under
Game 15-16: Colorado at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.318; St. Louis 12.820
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over
Game 17-18: Philadelphia at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.462; Nashville 11.160
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over
Game 19-20: San Jose at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.593; Dallas 10.768
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-150); Over
Game 21-22: NY Islanders at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.519; Vancouver 11.969
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+230); Over
Venture Sports
SAN JOSE SHARKS -140
This is a near perfect spot for the Sharks to pick up a victory tonight and the Sharks are looking to bounce back from 2 straight losses. Simply put, the Sharks have owned the Stars in Dallas. San Jose has gone 8-3 over the last 3 seasons in Dallas and have won 4 straight at the American Airlines Center dating back to the 2008-2009 season. The Sharks are 9-1 this year after a loss by 2 or more goals in their previous game and are 12-3 after giving up 4 or more goals in their previous game. Add to that the fact that Nabakov is 8-0-0 with a 1.43 GAA in his last 9 starts in Dallas. The Stars on the other hand have been headed in the opposite direction. Dallas is 1-5-1 since the Olympic break and just does not have the firepower or goaltending to compete with this explosive Sharks team. We have received news from our sources late Monday night that Mike Modano is out for this game as well after undergoing an emergency appendectomy. Dallas will also be starting their backup goaltender who has one of the higher GAA's in the league. Perfect spot here for our play of the week.
Rocketman
Jacksonville @ Arizona State
Play: Arizona State -14.5
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS last 3 years after a conference game. Arizona State is a very strong 16-3 SU at home this year. Arizona State allows only 58.5 points per game overall and 54.3 points per game at home this year. Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Sun Devils are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona State tonight!
EZWINNERS
Winthrop Eagles -4
Arkansas Pine Bluff is by far the weakest team in the field of 65 and they come from the weakest conference in the nation the SWAC. The Winthrop Eagles are not a very good offensive team at all, but they do play great defense and I expect that to be the key in this game. Winthrop held its opponents to 39 percent shooting from the floor and 29 percent from three point range as they rank 33rd in the nation in scoring defense allowing just under 62 points per game. Look for them to shutdown Pine Bluff. Lay the points.
Bryan Leonard
Arkansas Pine Bluff & Winthrop
The Golden Lions were thrown into the Lions Den to start the season with an amazing 14 straight road games to start the season. They started the campaign losing the first 11 of those games but they actually represented themselves very well. None of the losses were by 20 or more points despite playing at the likes of UTEP, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State and Missouri. They lost by 3 points at Akron who was an overtime victory away from winning the MAC Tournament. Arkansas Pine Bluff enters the Big Dance on a 16-4 run after dropping down in quality of opposition. Each of the four losses were by 5 points or less.
Winthrop was 19-13 on the season but they played a lesser non-conference slate. They faced Clemson, Charlotte, Cincinnati and NC State, losing those games by 36, 10, 17 and 16 points respectively. The Eagles have a winning history with victory totals of 29 and 22 before falling off to just 11 wins last season.
Neither team shoots the ball well and both play quality defense. They both spread the scoring around as neither team has a player than averages more than 11 points per game. Overall these squads are a mirror image of each other. While Winthrop has the better pedigree, Arkansas Pine Bluff is a team on the rise. The Golden Lions are playing the better ball at this time of the season and they proved in their non-conference games that they we're not overmatched. Look for the underdog to grab the cash here in a low scoring game.
PLAY ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF
Sac Lawson
South Florida / North Carolina St. Under 127
My Goodness they've figured it out!! NC St. finished the year winning 5 of their last 7, and the key was DEFENSE. Looking at their numbers for the season, you'll see that their games actually hang around the 135 range, but 7 of their last 8 games have seen at least one team in the 50's, and as a result they've been successful. This Wolfpack team is one that simply does not have a lot of pure scorers. They can't go out on a nightly basis and score 80 points with the amount of talent that's in the ACC. It took them all year to figure that out, but they finally did it! Down the home stretch they became much more patient on offense, and much more fundamental on defense. The result was low scoring games.
South Florida is a team that has been one of the lower scoring teams in the Big East all year.. Not only is their tempo quite a bit slower than the majority of the Big East teams, but they've never heard of three point shots, and they don't shoot free throws very well. When it comes to three pointers, there is not one guy on the South Florida roster that would have the green light on my team, not one. Fact is, three point shots are easy to get. Teams that are comfortable jacking up threes are able to get shots very early in the clock, where as teams that don't shoot threes allow defenses to pack the paint which in turn makes it difficult/time consuming to get an open look inside. USF had the luxury of playing some extremely uptempo clubs (providence, S-Hall, Nova etc) this season and as a result their scoring numbers are inflated just as NC State's are (which i eluded to earlier).
Fact is, both these teams play slower than their Point Per Game numbers will tell you. They both fell into higher scoring games in their respective conferences due to the uptempo nature of many of their opponents. Both these teams want to play games in the 60's and if you're NC State, maybe even the 50's. Neither team shoots three pointers very well, neither team shoots free throws very well, but both teams know how to defend, and that'll be the name of the game tonight.
Fairfield +1 vs George Mason
This one is a bit weird because I have Fairfield, literally, 50 spots higher in my Power Rankings. Mason is a team that lost 7 of their last 9 games, and although they have the home court advantage tonight, that's just about the only advantage they have. George Mason plays decent defense, but is 100% guard oriented and very young. 7 out of the 8 guys they'll play are underclassmen, and only one of them is over 6'6. When you think of a guard oriented team, you think of a team that can knock down some jumpers.. that's just it though, they don't!
Fairfield has TONS of size. Anthony Johnson is listed at 6'9, but his wingspan is massive, and he plays like he's a seven footer. Ryan Olander is a 7 footer, and they have two guards in Ivanovich and (the other) Johnson who are both over 6'7. The size advantage will be massive tonight, and as a result the rebounding advantage will be massive. Fact is though, Fairfield is a better shooting team as well. Ivanovich and Crawford are both sharp shooters, and Derek Needham is a future Player of the Year in the Metro.
Listen, I realize G-Mason's home court advantage is a very big one, but they don't have the size or talent that Fairfield does. On top of that, Fairfield played one hell of a game against Siena in the Tournament Final last week, and that was played on Siena's home floor. They've proven they can win on the road, they've proven they can compete with the upper echelon teams in the nation. And in my eyes, they've proven they have a perfect balance of size and speed to be able to make a run at this CIT tournament title. Take Fairfield here as a small dog, they get it done easily!
Va. Commonwealth -2.5 vs George Washington
This one comes down to experience.... 6 out of George Washington's top 8 players are underclassmen. They have no experience in postseason tournament play, and although they have the home court tonight, they simply will not have what it takes to take down a VCU team that is full of guys that have played in HUGE games. VCU is a team we are used to seeing in the NCAA tournament, but they fell just short this year to an ODU team that beat them with pure size. VCU's downfall this year was against teams with size, and that's not something they'll see from GW. George Washington has some size, but nothing that VCU's big man Larry Sanders can't handle by himself. It's the teams with size at the guard positions that really give Commonwealth fits.
Fact is, both teams play exceptional defense, but VCU is a team that can play in the 80's on any given night. They've got tons and tons of scorers, love to push the tempo, and that alone will get GW out of their comfort zone. George Washington is a team that likes to play in the 60's, because quite frankly, they don't have many pure shooters. We could very well see VCU simply out score George Washington tonight. I like VCU's tenacity on the offensive glass, I like their scorers, and I like the experience they bring to the table for this game. Larry Sanders, Joey Rodriguez, Ed Nixon, TJ Gwynn... All guys that have played huge NCAA tournament games, all guys that know what they're doing in postseason play. They've got experience in the frontcourt, in the backcourt, and everywhere in between. Simply have got to roll with a team that is more efficient offensively, equal defensively, more efficient on the glass, and way more experienced. VCU as the road favorite!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
NYI +1.5 (-125) vs VAN
I recommended a "puck line" wager on the Boston Bruins yesterday against the New Jersey Devils. Boston lost 3-2, and we once again came away with another "free play" winner, pushing our run to six in a row.
Tonight the New York Islanders travel to Vancouver to take on the red-hot Canucks at 10:00 ET and for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Isles on the "puck line".
Vancouver has won seven straight at GM Place; New York has lost eight straight on the road.
Vancouver is coming off a 3-1 victory over Calgary on Sunday, a game which saw it net all three goals in the first period.
Roberto Luongo is scheduled between the pipes tonight; he's 1-0-1 against the Isles with a 1.39 GAA and he should be sharp again this evening.
The Isles will be looking to snap their road woes with a concerted effort this evening and enter this contest with considerable momentum; they hammered the Leafs 4-1 on Sunday, and the Devils 4-2 on Saturday.
"We feel like we owe each other results and consistency," said Martin Biron, who stopped 26 shots Sunday. "When you play with the attitude and dedication we have right now, you have that sense you're going to play well."
Whether its Biron or Roloson in net, I look for New York to come out fired up as it catches a somewhat complacent Canucks team "looking ahead" to two very tough games over the next four days; the Sharks swim into town on Thursday, while the Wings fly in on Saturday.
Another tightly contested affair; Isles on the "puck line".
Tony George
Indiana State +7.5
Well, St. Louis is a young team here and led by Rick Majerus, no stranger to the post season, however the Mo Valley entry here is worth looking at. They live and die by the 3 pointer, and St. Louis was good at defending the 3 pointer, but as the post season always shows, I will back teams who can stroke the 3 with good gaurds and Indiana State has a few. Although stud Harry Marshall is out for ISU, I still like their half court pressure and ability to score at the free throw line (78% last 5), and the fact St. Louis does not shoot free throws worth a hoot, a big difference in what should be a tight game.
Tom Stryker
CONNECTICUT (-) over Northeastern
Off four consecutive straight up losses including an embarrassing first round blemish to St. John's in the Opening Round of the Big East Tournament, Connecticut will bounce back nicely tonight at home in the NIT matched up against Northeastern.
As stated, the Huskies dropped a 73-51 decision to the Red Storm in their last game and that crushing defeat places them in an automatic "play on" situation. Since the 1990-91 season, NIT 1st Round hosts that enter off a blowout loss of 20 points or more are a respectable 21-5 SU and 17-9 ATS including a solid 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in this role carrying a won/loss percentage less than .640. With those two parameters applied and our host favored by -4' or more, this system tightens up to a rewarding 8-1 SU and ATS mark! UConn applies to all three parameters of this angle.
To help our cause, Big East home teams have dominated the 1st Round of the NIT Tournament posting a solid 20-3 SU and 15-7-1 ATS mark provided they check in off a straight up loss. If our BEAST team spots a won/loss percentage less than .590, this conference situations improves to a superb 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS! On the flip side, since the 2005 season, Northeastern has struggled against teams from the Big East notching a woeful 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS record.
The Northeastern Huskies participated in the CBI Tournament last year and found a way to pull off an upset win at Wyoming in their first game. Considering these Huskies are just 9-20 ATS priced as a road dog of +5' or more when matched up against an opponent that holds a won/loss percentage greater than .200, an encore performance against one of the Big East's better teams isn't likely to happen. Take Connecticut.