Tom Freese
Cleveland at Detroit
Detroit is 23-44 this year and just playing out the string. Shooting guard Richard Hamilton scores 18.7 points a game. Shooting guard Ben Gordon scores 13.6 points a game. Small forward Tayshaun Prince scoers 12.4 points a game. Forward Charlie Villanueva scores 12 points a game. Point guard Will Bynum scores 10.1 points a game. The Pistons score 93.4 points a game and they allow 97.9 points a game. Detroit is 8-22-1 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 8-22-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Clevland is 52-15 this year and they are 3 games ahead of the Lakers for best record in the NBA. Small Forward LeBron James scores 29.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists a game. Point guard Mo Williams scores 15.8 points a game. Power forward Anderson Varejao scores 8.9 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. The Cavaliers score 102.2 points a game and they allow 95.1 points a game. Cleveland is 41-20-1 ATS their last 62 games off a straight up win by more than 10 points and they are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games following an ATS win. PLAY ON CLEVELAND -
Nelly
Miami - over San Antonio
San Antonio appears to be playing great ball with wins in seven of the last eight games including seven consecutive ATS victories. The schedule has played a huge role however as the last three games came against three of the worst teams in the league. This is difficult spot for the Spurs as they have alternated home and a away games for the past four games and this will be the sixth road game in the past ten games for the team. Miami has played the last three at home with convincing double-digit wins and the Heat have won six in a row at hoe and six of the last seven overall. Recent foes have been struggling teams but there are also wins over Atlanta and the Lakers so far in March as the Heat appear set on a serious playoff push to hold their ground. Without Tony Parker the Spurs have gone 4-0 ATS but that run is not likely to continue. While there was some consideration that Jermaine O’Neal might be suspended tonight he is expected to play and Dorrell Wright and Michael Beasley should return tonight as well. The Heat have been an outstanding defensive team at home, holding foes to just 93 points per game and this will be a key home match-up for a team looking to legitimize its recent run. San Antonio is just a .500 road team this season and this looks like a tough match-up for a team that has actually played worse with two days off between games.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
The Suns should be well rested as this is just their third game in the last ten days. They bounced back from Friday's loss to the Lakers with a fine showing against New Orleans, winning 120-106, and covering as ten-point chalk. Minnesota is atrocious having lost nine straight and 15 of its last 16. They are 10-22 ATS off three or more consecutive losses. Last time they played Phoenix, they lost by 25.
Play on: Phoenix
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Marshall -11
Marshall is a really exciting high scoring offensive team that Western Carolina should have trouble stopping tonight. In fact, Western Carolina is just 1-8 ATS in road games, when playing against a team with a winning record, after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by 14.7 points on average. Western Carolina is also only 1-10 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing to these teams by 12.6 points on average. The Catamounts are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Thundering Herd are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Marshall has been great on its home floor this season where it is winning by nearly 22 points per game. We'll lay the points.
MTi Sports
Cavaliers at Pistons
Prediction: Under
The Pistons have done something that no team has done over AT LEAST the last 17,975 NBA games allowed better than 62% shooting for two straight games. We expect them to play a little defense here.
SEAN MURPHY
Winthrop @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff
PICK: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +4
The public is lining up to back Winthrop in this one, likely having not seen either one of these teams play a single game all season.
Many haven't forgotten the Eagles upset win over Notre Dame in the opening round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament, but this is obviously an entirely different team, and a young one at that, with a pair of sophomores and a freshman starting.
Few had even heard of Arkansas-Pine Bluff before Sunday's selection show.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff has all five starters back from last year. The Golden Lions are certainly battle tested after playing all 11 of their non-conference games on the road, with five of them coming against tournament-bound teams. While they did go winless over that stretch, I liked how competitive they were in most games. Most notably, they managed to score 70 and 76 points at Missouri and Kansas State respectively, two tough pressure defenses from the Big 12.
By contrast, Winthrop was held to 66, 57, and 52 points in notable non-conference games against Clemson, Cincinnati, and N.C. State respectively. It's also worth noting that the Eagles had to pull off a sizable upset in their conference championship game against Coastal Carolina. They were listed as nine-point underdogs in that one. They were also listed as the underdog in their semi-final matchup against Radford.
A quote from Winthrop freshman guard Robbie Dreher concerns me.
"I expected us to go right in and play a No. 1," Dreher said. "We'll use this as motivation. The coaches already mentioned them (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) a little. We just have to go up there, get a win and get it over with. Then we'll play Duke"
It sounds to me like this is a team that could already be looking past the Golden Lions. That would be a mistake. Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
JR O'Donnell
Texas Tech vs. Seton Hall
Play: Texas Tech + 8.5
We will be riding the Texas Tech train here on Nit Tuesday as the Seton Hall crew is a dismal 1-6 ATS when favored by 5.5 points or more this season. The Pirates have been a ats burner's this year @ 7-15 and only won by 10 or more twice since 12-22-09 . Pat Knight's who is staying @ tech wants to win. We also note that Texas Tech played the 13th toughest schedule in the entire nation this season. They have been pounded in the Big 12. With huge inner turmoil on this Hall team "Robert Mitchell removed a transfer from Dusquesne " and a team that is on a 6-16 ats run the last 22, we will fade the Pirates and play the scrappy dog here tonight
Matt Rivers
William and Mary at North Carolina
I can't say that I fully trust the Tribe on the road but to get such a healthy amount of points with a much improved program against a terrible North Carolina team, relatively speaking, is enough to give this a go.
Tony Shaver has a team that earlier in the season beat Maryland, Richmond and Wake Forest. Then in conference they downed teams like VCU once, Hofstra, Northeastern and Drexel twice among others. Sure things should not come easy in Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels still have some talent with Thompson, Ginyard, Zeller and others but UNC has pounded nobody at all in months and just should not all of a sudden regain their National Championship form today.
David Schneider and the visitors went 12-6 in-conference and 22-10 overall and advanced to the Colonial finals. Old Dominion was too good and outclassed Bill and Mary but the Tribe, even in a mediocre game, still managed to cover the contest in the end.
The Heels dropped 12 of their final 16 games and the season just can't end soon enough for Roy Williams and his team, which has been through the ringer. UNC even dropped five of their last seven at the Dean Dome and even if it doesn't become six of eight I don't see a resounding victory that can come near covering this semi substantial number.
Bill and Mary had a great season and will fight today in another program building game.
The pick: William & Mary +8.5
Wunderdog
Ark Pine Bluff vs. Winthrop
Play: Winthrop -3.5
Winthrop is a well-coached team and they slowed games down to win their conference tournament to get to the big dance. Winthrop has been a good choice on a neutral court where they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14. The Golden Lions, often not a lined team, have covered just one of their last six. Winthrop has the pedigree and coaching advantage here, and I'll back them in this one.
Freddy Wills
Fairfield vs. George Mason
Play: Fairfield +1.5
Under normal circumstances I would have taken this as a premium play, but I'm not sure how happy Fairfield is to be headed to the College Insider Tournament after they were minutes away from upsetting Siena and going to the big dance. However, I still feel like this is a team that over came a lot this year. They got production from players they didn't expect including MAAC rookie of the year in Derek Needham. Needham can score and distribute the ball. I also like Anthony Johnson down low to give Mason some troubles. Mason despite the name and what surrounds what the team did a few years ago is a team that really played better than they were supposed to this year as one of the youngest programs in the country. They got off to a 9-1 conference start, but finish 2-7. Fairfield was solid on the road this year at 8-8. While George Mason lost a lot down the stretch and is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers +3
The Bobcats have struggled on the road all season to the tune of 10-23, and I expect those struggles to continue tonight in this letdown spot after big win over Orlando. The Bobcats have had a tough time getting the job done on the road to begin with and they face an even tougher challenge of doing do without All-Star Gerald Wallace, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Bobcats are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana has won 7 of the last 10 at home in this matchup and I look for this trend to continue this evening.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Indiana State/Saint Louis UNDER 118
Considering Indiana State is only averaging 56.3 points in its last 3 true road games, and considering Saint Louis is only allowing 57.4 points at home this season, I like the Under here tonight as I expect this one to be a defensive battle. The Billikens played to the Under in 5 of their last 7 games, which comes as no surprise because of how solid they are on defense and how methodical they are on offense. The Under is 4-1 in the Billikens' last 5 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Under is also 7-3 in the Sycamores' last 10 non-conference games. We'll take the Under here tonight.
Jack Jones
NC State +3.5
NC State really picked up their play at the end of the season, and it gave them the opportunity to play in the NIT. South Florida was a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament all year long, and they have to be feeling a bit disappointed about not making the Big Dance. I feel that the Wolf Pack will be more motivated heading into this one. NC State was an excellent road team, going 9-8 SU & 12-5 ATS away from home this season. The Wolf Pack finished off their season by going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final 7 games, beating the likes of Clemson, Florida State and Wake Forest in the process, three teams in the NCAA Tournament. South Florida has not beaten a team in the NCAA Tournament since February 3rd.
This play also falls under a system that is 49-19 (72.1%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NC STATE) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take NC State.
SPORTS WAGERS
SACRAMENTO +2.11/+6 over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers really aren’t playing so great these days despite winning three in a row. They beat a sinking Raps squad by a bucket when everyone else has been pounding the Raps. Last night they beat the Warriors by three and needed a big rally to pull that one out. They also beat the Blazers by six and prior to that trifecta they dropped three in a row. In reality, the Lakers could just as easily be on a six game losing streak right now. Meanwhile, the Kings have once again stepped it up and they’re playing some strong basketball at the moment. They recently came close to beating the Thunder twice and the Mav’s once. Sac has won two of its last three and they remain a very difficult team to beat in its own barn. For sure the place will be electric and when the Lakers were playing great and came in here on Dec 26, the Kings took them to OT. The last time they played in L.A. on Jan 1, the Kings lost by a single point. So, in regulation time over the last two meeting the Lakers have outscored the Kings by a single point. The Kings will be ready again and could very well pull off this upset. Play: Sacramento +2.11 (Risking 1 unit) Play Sacramento +6 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1).
Washington +14 over DENVER
We all know the Nuggets usually play down to weaker opponents and this is really not a great spot for them. First, they return home from a four-game trip in which they took three of four. Secondly, the played in Houston last night and they used up a lot of energy in an attempt to come back from a large deficit, only to fall short by a bucket. Lastly, the Nuggets will play its fourth game in five nights and fifth game in a week and they’re under no urgency whatsoever. So, yeah, they’ll probably win and under normal circumstances they could name the score against this guest. However, this is a tough spot and one in which the Wizards can keep it close because the Nuggets have shown a huge propensity for taking bad teams lightly. Nuggets show up in body only and the Wizards stay well within this range. Play: Washington +14 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
NY Islanders +2.71 over VANCOUVER
It just does not seem likely or possible that the Islanders could go into Vancouver and beat this contender but as Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”. If the Canucks were ever in a vulnerable and un-motivating spot, this is it and here’s why. First, they’ve been back for two games after that exhausting 14-game road trip that included six straight on the road after the break. The fans were completely juiced up for the first game back and so were the players, as the crowd got to acknowledge Roberto Luongo again, not to mention the whole team. In its second game back they played perhaps its biggest rival, the Flames and proceeded to squash them. This is the Canucks third game back and they’ll play a team that hasn’t been in this building since 2008. They’ll also host a game against the Sharks on Thursday and again if there were ever a game the Canucks will show up in body only, this is it. The Islanders are playing decent again with two wins in a row and five out of a possible six points over its last three. They beat the Devils and Maple Leafs and they beat the Blackhawks 5-3 the first game back after the break. They lost by a goal to both Boston and Philly and took the Blue Notes to OT before its last two wins. So, this is about as good a situational play as you’ll find and at this price the Islanders are worth a look, as they could absolutely catch the Canucks very uninterested. Play: NY Islanders +2.71 (Risking 2 units).
Bob Balfe
Arkansas Pine Bluff +4 over Winthrop
Despite starting the season 0-11, the Golden Knights have found their groove and went 17-4 to sneak their way into the tournament. The key to this game derives from the senior leadership of AR-Pine Bluff (all 5 starters are seniors). It is very comforting knowing that a team that has already faced enormous diversity ended up overcoming every obstacle to eventually end up in the NCAA tournament, which can all be attributed to vocal leaders on the team stepping up and lighting a fire underneath the entire squad. Neither team has that one guy that can take over a game individually, so expect to see over a dozen lead changes and a very close game throughout. Winthrop has not played in 10 days and could very well come out cold which could be the deciding factor. The Golden Knights did not play a home game until January 6th, so they are very familiar and experienced on the road and gave many quality teams a run for their money. Winthrop has a horrendous shooting percentage (ranked 338 out of 347 Div. 1 teams) and should work very hard to get their points tonight. The line is +4 when I expected AR-Pine Bluff to be a pickem or a 1-1.5 point favorite. This is due in large part to the public activity all over Winthrop and it is simply because bettors are wagering on the names here. Who has ever heard of AR-Pine Bluff? Look for the Golden Knights to lose horribly-to the Duke Blue Devils. Take AR-Pine Bluff +4.