LT Profits
Arkansas-Pine Bluff +4
Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Winthrop have very similar statistics when looking at both the raw numbers and Pomeroy. However, UAPB can pull the upset just on foul shooting alone.
The NCAA Tournament officially kicks off Tuesday night with the play-in game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions and the Winthrop Eagles, and in a game with two teams that have virtually identical styles and similar numbers we feel that the points are worth taking with the Lions in what could be an upset.
Both of these teams have shaky offenses and rely on their defenses to win games. However, at least Pine Bluff is over 40 percent vs. Division I foes, shooting 41.1 percent against them overall. While that may not be saying much, it makes UAPB look like Duke when compared to the atrocious 38.5 percent that Winthrop is shooting overall vs. Division I. Just that terrible shooting alone makes the Eagles a dicey proposition giving points, especially vs. a quality defense.
Well, both of these teams have good defenses, as each is allowing just over 40 percent shooting. The Pomeroy Ratings bear this out as both teams have an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of less than one point per possession, with Winthrop at .942 and Pine Bluff at .979. Pomeroy also supports the struggles of the offenses, as UAPB is ranked 307 out of 347 teams in offensive efficiency and Winthrop ranks 309.
A game with stats that are this close may come down to foul shooting, and while neither team is a great free throw shooting team, Pine Bluff knows how to get many more attempts. In fact, the Golden Lions have a FTA/FGA ratio of 49.1 percent, ranking them an amazing 10 in the entire country in that overlooked statistic. Comparatively, Winthrop ranks 237 at just 35.4 percent.
Look for all those extra points Arkansas Pine-Bluff is excepted to score with the clock stopped to make a huge difference here, as it should at the very least allow them to cover this number with an outright upset entirely possible.
Red Dog Sports
VCU at George Washington
Play: Over 140.5
I estimated this total to be set at 140. VCU has been an over machine on the road as they have 38 overs, 15 unders and a push in their last 54 on the road. This season they had just one under on the road and that was at UNCW, where the Seahawks had just changed coaches. Here are the VCU lined games on the road:
at ODU 143
at JMU 147
at GMU 138 (went into OT for the over!)
at UNCW 133
at NE 136
at Ga St 151
at Hofstra 149
at Drexel 147
at Tulane 155
at W&M 149
at WMich 150 (no line for early season game)
George Washington has played 6 overs in a row and had 6 overs and 4 unders at home this year. Here are their last 3 home games:
St. Joe's 80-71 (151) went over 143.5
Charlotte 75-70 (145) went over 143
LaSalle 81-72 (153) went over 141.5
The home game vs. Providence ended 110-97 for 207 points. That total was set at 150. VCU just played in the CAA tourney and now gets to go to GW and press the Colonials. Teams in their league had trouble with them so it will be hard for George Washington to be prepared for their style. Let's hope for a game like the Providence game.
GW gets scoring from Hollis, Kromach and Taylor while VCU should get points from Sanders, Rodriguez, Burgess, Rozzell, Burgess and others.
VCU/GW over 140.5
Stephen Nover
Charlotte (-1) at INDIANA
Charlotte is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA holding opponents to less than 94 points per game. The Bobcats' defense has gotten even better since Tyson Chandler returned to the lineup six games ago.
During this span, the Bobcats are giving up just 87.5 points per game. Chandler and Theo Ratliff, who has been surprisingly effective at his advanced age, are an effective shot-blocking and rebounding duo. They are key chess pieces for defensive guru Larry Brown.
The under has cashed in seven of Charlotte's last nine games.
The Pacers are without T.J. Ford, who is an up-tempo point guard. Indiana also could be without Mike Dunleavy, one of their better scorers.
Charlotte could be missing Gerald Wallace, their second-leading scorer.
2♦ CHARLOTTE/INDIANA UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Charlotte (-1) at INDIANA
I'm on a 67-38-3 streak with my FREE selections and tonight I have a comp winner for you on the pro hardwood as I lay the chalk with the Bobcats in Indianapolis against the Pacers.
The Bobcats absolutely have it rolling right now, having won six straight games (5-1 ATS). They have themselves in playoff position in the Eastern Conference and will deliver a victory here in Indiana.
Charlotte went to Orlando and scored an impressive 96-89 win on Sunday, cashing as a big 8 ½-point underdog. They did the damage on the glass, winning the rebounding game 46-34. Stephen Jackson had 28 points, six boards and six rebounds as they are making up for the loss of Gerald Wallace who will be out today with a bad ankle.
Indianapolis has dropped six of their last seven, including a Sunday loss in Milwaukee, 98-94. They got a big game from Danny Granger with 29 points, but nothing special from anyone else.
Charlotte has won six of the last 10 against the Pacers, including a 7-3 ATS mark since 2007. Last time they were in Indianapolis, the Bobcats fell 101-98 but cashed as a 3 ½-point pup. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points and 7-2 ATS against the Central Division. The Pacers are just 5-13 as a home ‘dog and 4-11 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½ points.
Charlotte is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 trips to Indianapolis and they are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings overall. I’ll go with the red-hot road team tonight.
4♦ CHARLOTTE
Chuck O'Brien
Chicago at MEMPHIS (-11)
Three straight complimentary winners after the Hornets got the job done against the Clippers on Monday. For Tuesday, lay the big points with the Grizzlies against the Bulls in NBA action.
These teams met just 12 days ago in Chicago and Memphis rolled to a 105-96 win as a five-point road underdog. The Grizzlies also had little problem with the Bulls in mid-December, winning 103-96 as a three-point home underdog. Well, Chicago had most of its arsenal in those two games, including guards Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, and shooting forward Loul Deng (they also had center Joakim Noah in the December contest).
Tonight, Noah (foot injury) and Hinrich (suspension) are out; Rose (wrist) and Deng (calf) are highly doubtful; and center Brad Miller (who had 14 points and seven rebounds in the 9-point home loss to Memphis earlier this month) is questionable with a thumb injury. All this for a Bulls team that’s fallen out of the playoff chance with seven consecutive losses and non-covers. That includes double-digit road losses in Indiana (100-90), Orlando (111-82) and Miami (108-95).
At 35-32, Memphis is still clinging to playoff hopes, and it has been playing better of late (5-2 last seven games, with the only losses coming to the Spurs and Nuggets). The Grizzlies are on ATS runs of 20-8-2 against Eastern Conference squads, 5-1 against teams from the Central Division and 14-6-2 versus teams with a losing record. Also, the host has cashed in 15 of the last 18 Bulls-Grizzlies matchups (and the favorite is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings).
4♦ MEMPHIS
Michael Cannon
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+3') vs. Winthrop, at DAYTON, OH
I am 10-5 with my last 15 overall free plays.
Take the points with Arkansas-Pine Bluff over Winthrop in the play in game tonight for the tournament.
APB played a very tough early season road schedule, traveling to Arizona State, Michigan, Akron, UTEP, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech and Kansas State. Although they lost each of those games, they weren’t embarrassed in any of them.
Winthrop has only one player who averages double-digits in scoring, so it’s not surprising to see that they shoot less than 40 percent from the field.
APB starts an all-senior lineup and they excel on the boards.
Take the points with Arkansas-Pine Bluff as this one figures to be close throughout.
3♦ ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Karl Garrett
Texas Tech (+8') at SETON HALL
G-Man all set to bang home a NIT winner on Tuesday, as I back the Red Raiders of Texas Tech cathing a bunch of points at Seton Hall.
The Red Raiders have won only once in their last nine games, but I am not asking them to win tonight, just to cover. Tech has been able to cover their last pair, including staying inside the number against mighty Kansas in the Big 12 tournament.
Seton Hall is on a 5 game home spread slide, and they finished just 3-9 against the spread in their lined home games this season.
The Pirates will have enough for the win, but with a long-term 6-16 spread mark their last 22 games, the cover is a whole other issue.
Red Raiders went 7-6 against the spread on the road this season, and I like them to cover another.
This one gets decided late, take the points.
5♦ TEXAS TECH
Derek Mancini
Texas Tech (+9) at SETON HALL
Rockets get the outright win over the Nuggets with Monday's Free Play! But that's enough NBA, as we all know it's college tourney time... Liking the Red Raiders tonight versus the Pirates, as Vegas is being way too generous in this spot.
In order to cover a spread this large you have to be able to play defense, and that's something Seton Hall has failed to do all season! Opponents are scoring 82 ppg over their L5, and if you think playing in Newark is going to change that, then why did Rutgers drop 70 on them, and Depaul 71?!
The Texas Tech offense is infinately better than either one of those Big East teams, and their outright win over Colorado and cover versus Kansas are good examples of that. If they can put up 68 points on the Jayhawks defense, then they can keep this close.
We all know about Jeremy Hazell, but its the Raiders balance that trumps the Pirates tonight. A couple big bodies in Cohadarevic and Roberts should be enough to counter Herb Pope, and given the generous number, I just don't see Seton Hall pulling away. FYI - Pirates are just 3-9 ATS at home this season, and their below average defense is the reason for that. Texas Tech plus the points Tuesday.
2♦ TEXAS TECH
Chris Jordan
Fairfield (+1) at GEORGE MASON
Taking the Stags on the road tonight, as they're clearly the better team and should win this game outright.
The Stags hoped their current Ratings Percentage Index rating of 82 and their trip to the MAAC conference tournament finals would land them in the Little Dance - at the very least.
After all, they did take Siena to overtime on its home floor. And Fairfield did win six of its last eight down the stretch. But to no avail, and here it is in some dot.com event.
Nevertheless, they'll take it. And I think they have the personnel to overcome a George Mason team that lost seven of their last nine games and lost in the first round of the CAA Tournament by 15 points to Virginia Commonwealth.
Fairfield, which ranked 24th in this week's College Insider.com Mid-Major Top 25 poll, finished second in the MAAC regular season standings with a 13-5 mark, and had a much more productive season than the Patriots.
2♦ FAIRFIELD
Scott Delaney
Jacksonville at Arizona State
Kudos to the Dolphins to making it this far. But the run ends in Tempe, Arizona tonight, as the Sun Devils will stifle the boys out of Jacksonville.
This is a Sun Devils team that competed for a Pac-10 title this season, and came up just short. Though the team was 22-10 overall, the Selection Committee of the tournament that begins in a couple days didn't deem it necessary to wag its tail at ASU, the Devils earned the top seed in their region of this tourney.
And you better believe there might be some animosty there. The Sun Devils might have some reason to think they could have been considered, and should be motivated to win this entire tournament.
The Dolphins don't have a lot of scorers, and depend too much on 5-foot-10 guard Ben Smith. That won't bode well against a stingy Sun Devils group that is holding opponents to a meager 58.5 points per game and just 40.1 percent shooting from the field.
ASU rolls in this one, as the crowd will ignite the Devils, and keep the Dolphins distracted while attempting to overcome the pressure.
2♦ ARIZONA STATE
Brett Atkins
With the NIT starting up tonight, there are some very attractive matchups out there and one of them is my free play today as I lay the chalk on Seton Hall as the Pirates host Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have been terrible on the road all season and down the stretch they were terrible anywhere. Seton Hall made a run at the end of the regular season, going 7-3, and the Pirates are going to deliver a beating to Texas Tech tonight.
Seton Hall was 13-4 at home this season while the Red Raiders were 3-9 on the road. Texas Tech is on ATS slides of 0-4-1 against Big East teams and 0-6 as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2-points.
This one is going to get ugly quickly as Seton Hall is the far better team. Texas Tech seemed to pack it in before the end of the regular season and things are getting any better for them tonight. Lay the chalk and play the Pirates in this one.
4♦ SETON HALL
Jay McNeil
Heading into NIT action tonight, and I'm taking the underdog in the William and Mary/North Carolina clash, as the Tribe just might win this game outright.
Arguably one of the three most storied programs in college basketball history, it’s almost a disappointment for the North Carolina Tar Heels to partake in this postseason event. It would seem if it’s not the Big Dance, the Tar Heels would rather leave their dancing shoes at home.
To think they can get away with laying this many to a veteran William & Mary squad is ludicrous, especially when the Tribe already claimed victories at Wake Forest and Maryland – a pair of ACC teams who earned dancing invites – why can’t the Colonial Athletic Association entry knock off the disgruntled and dismayed Tar Heels?
At the very least, Bill and Mary should be able to keep this within a bucket or two.
This is a talented and disciplined William and Mary team that was 13-2 as an underdog this season, and rolls into this opening round clash on additional ATS runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 versus ACC teams and 7-3 overall.
Take the points in this one!
2♦ WILLIAM AND MARY
Joel Tyson
14-7 comp play run the last 21 days.
Hats off to Rick Majerus and the job he has done this season with St. Louis. The Billikins are looking for their 21st win of the season this Tuesday night at home, and they are 9-3-1 against the spread on their home hardwood this season.
Problem is, St. Louis is a very young team, and they look as if they have hit the wall, dropping 3 of their last 5 straight up, including a surprising no-show against Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 tourney.
The Sycamores may not have many straight up wins down the stretch this season, but they have covered 5 of their last 6, and 8 of their last 10. Indiana State is also 20-8 against the spread their last 28 road games.
I will gladly take the points and look for a close one in the Gateway City on Tuesday night.
4♦ INDIANA STATE
Jeff Benton
Terrible call on the Pistons on Monday. Still, I’m on runs 37-20-2, 27-14-2, 24-13-2 and 18-10-2 with plays that I’m giving away! For Tuesday, it’s back to college basketball and I’ll play Texas Tech plus the points at Seton Hall.
Frankly, I don’t trust the inconsistent Pirates to cover this kind of number. Remember, it was just a week ago when they had a 29-point lead in the middle of the second half against Providence in the opening round of the Big East tournament and nearly blew the entire thing, holding on for a 109-106 win (failing to cover as a 5½-point favorite). It wasn’t just the blown lead that was disturbing; it was the way Seton Hall played so incredibly undisciplined, careless and stupid basketball.
It was also a week ago that Texas Tech pummeled Colorado in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament (15-point win), then came back the next day and put a serious scare into No. 1 Kansas. The Red Raiders trailed by just two points at halftime, and though they eventually lost by 12, they were in that contest till the eight-minute mark of the season half.
Finally, including that non-cover against Providence, Seton Hall has been a pointspread disaster lately, failing to cover in 16 of its last 22 games overall, six straight home games overall, seven of 10 as a favorite and six straight as a home favorite. Meanwhile, outside of the rugged Big 12, Texas Tech has been a moneymaker (6-1 ATS last seven non-conference games).
5♦ TEXAS TECH
THE PREZ
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
The Los Angeles Lakers ate probably still the best team in basketball, but they are playing without rest after a tough game last night while the young Sacramento Kings have been playing excellent basketball at home lately.
The Kings are coming off of a 114-100 home win over the Timberwolves in a game that was not nearly as close as that final score would indicate. In fact, the Kings led that game by 32 points before easing off the gas. Sacramento also had a similar 23-point blowout of Toronto in Arco Arena last week, and they are now over .500 at home at 17-16, a stark contrast from their 6-28 road mark.
The Lakers struggled to get by the Golden State Warriors 124-121 in Oakland last night, and the fact that they won that game anyway may keep them on cruise control for the second of their road back-to-back tonight. The overpriced Lakers have been burning money on the road as it is, going just 13-18-1 against the spread away from Staples, and thus situation tonight does not look any easier for them.
Finally, Sacramento has played the Lake Show tough in both head-to-head meetings so far this season, taking the Lakers to the limit in a narrow 109-108 defeat in LA and taking them to overtime in the first meeting here in Arco. Look for another nail-biter here.
Pick: Kings+5.5