Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T
The Aggies look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 neutral site games. North Carolina A&T is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-2 1/2)

Game 539-540: Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Liberty 47.420; North Carolina A&T 52.466
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 5; 132
Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T by 2 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-2 1/2); Over

Game 541-542: St. Mary's vs. Middle Tennessee State (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 70.330; Middle Tennessee State 65.291
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 5; 126
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 2 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-2 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Niagara at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.639; Maryland 65.206
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Maryland by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+11); Under

Game 545-546: St. John's at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 60.156; St. Joseph's 64.999
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 5; 133
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 6 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+6 1/2); Over

Game 547-548: Louisiana Tech at Florida State (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 56.544; Florida State 64.287
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5; 143
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5); Under

Game 549-550: Kentucky at Robert Morris (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 62.978; Robert Morris 60.073
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3; 148
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+4 1/2); Over

Game 551-552: Northeastern at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 51.145; Alabama 64.753
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12; 130
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12); Under

Game 553-554: Norfolk State at Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 51.654; Virginia 65.387
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 13 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Virginia by 16 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+16 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Ohio at Denver (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 56.652; Denver 69.235
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 127
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over

Game 557-558: Washington at BYU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 59.018; BYU 66.865
Dunkel Line: BYU by 8; 142
Vegas Line: BYU by 5; 146
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-5); Under

Game 559-560: Stephen F. Austin at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 57.660; Stanford 70.237
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 12 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Stanford by 9; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-9); Under

Game 563-564: George Mason at College of Charleston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 53.760; College of Charleston 57.182
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 4; 133
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+4); Over

Game 565-566: Lehigh at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 55.345; Wyoming 59.101
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 4; 130
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 5; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Lehigh (+5); Over

Game 567-568: Vermont at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 52.922; Santa Clara 62.236
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 9 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 8; 132
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (-8); Under

Game 575-576: Rider at Hartford (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 54.901; Hartford 51.103
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4; 127
Vegas Line: Rider by 2 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-2 1/2); Over

Game 577-578: Eastern Kentucky at Gardner-Webb (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.237; Gardner Webb 53.306
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 4; 128
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-2 1/2); Under

Game 579-580: Fairfield at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 52.086; Kent State 57.176
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Kent State by 6; 126
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+6); Over

Game 581-582: Oakland at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 50.077; Youngstown State 55.297
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 5; 147
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-4); Under

Game 583-584: Savannah State at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 49.600; East Carolina 55.117
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 7; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Savannah State (+7); Over

Game 585-586: Boston U at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 52.246; Loyola-MD 59.510
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 6 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-6 1/2); Under

Game 587-588: North Dakota at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.098; Northern Iowa 60.439
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15; 131
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+15); Over

Game 589-590: Tennessee State at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 54.358; Evansville 66.027
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 11 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Evansville by 8 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-8 1/2); Under

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Buffalo vs. MontrealFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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Buffalo has lost two straight, including a 5-3 loss at Washington on Sunday.
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Montreal has won five straight, most recently a 2-1 win at New Jersey on Saturday.
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These two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Buffalo is 10-15-4 overall, and just 5-9-2 on the road.
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Note that Montreal is 19-5-4 overall, and 9-3-2 at home.
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Pick Analysis
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I believe the Habs are worth the price in this matchup. These teams have played twice this season, with each winning on its home ice. This trend continues here, as the red-hot Habs deliver the goods in front of the home town crowd by taking advantage of a Sabres side which is struggling in every facet of the game right now; lay the price!

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Washington vs. PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year. Pittsburgh won 6-3 at Washington on February 3rd. The Pens also won 5-2 in Pittsburgh on February 7th. I'm expecting another lop-sided affair tonight. Washington is 12-15-1 overall, and only 4-8-1 on the road. The Capitals are coming off a 5-3 win over the Sabres on Sunday (I had the Capitals in that one). Washington has struggled with consistency all year though, and now faces a surging Pittsburgh team which is 22-8-0 overall, including 10-4-0 at home. The Pens are coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win over Boston on Sunday. Washington plays a critical two game, back to back set vs. Southeast leading Winnipeg on Thursday and Friday, and I simply can't see how it won't get caught looking ahead to that difficult divisional matchup. The Pens on the other hand enjoy two whole days off after this game, and I believe will leave everything they have on the ice. Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return.

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Kentucky vs. Robert MorrisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Robert MorrisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a difference a year makes. Last year, Kentucky was en route to cutting the nets down, winning the National Championship. I won big w/ the Wildcats throughout their championship run, but this year is a far different story as UK might once again be a #1 seed - but this time, it's in the NIT! I can't think of a more disinterested team for this event and as a result will call for an early exit...
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To make matters worse for Kentucky, they got a raw deal here. Despite being the #1 overall seed in the 32-team NIT field, they must open on the road due to Lexington being used as a NCAA Tournament site. Whoops!
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The opponent is Robert Morris, regular season champs in the Northeast Conference, which guaranteed the Colonials a spot in the NIT field. Of course, like Kentucky, they would have much rather prefered the Big Dance, but getting to host the defending national champions is a pretty decent consolation prize for RMU. Obviously, to get here, the Colonials had to come up short in their conference tournament, but that doesn't mean they're not motivated here. Said coach Andy Toole, "I feel like Rocky in Rocky 1 who just got his shot against the champions in our home city. We're extremely excited. It's incredible. It shouldn't be hard to get the team prepared. It's going to be a crazy, crazy event." One player tweeted that he was "breathless" over getting to play UK.
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Meanwhile, the Wildcats, who are just 4-4 straight up since their best player Nerlens Noel went down with an injury, probably couldn't care less here. Take the points.

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St. Joseph's -6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Joe's is off a tough 3 point loss to VCU last out and is 9-1 ats in games after allowing 80 or more. In the first round of the NIT They are 14-5 and have covered 5 of 6 on Tuesday. St. Johns has lost 5 straight while shooting under 40% in 4 of those games. They were beat by double digits by Villanova in their last game and are 3-6 vs teams who allow 65 or less and lost and failed to cover both times in no home games when the total is 120 to 130. Look for St. Joe's to win and cover here tonight.

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Niagara +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland did beat Duke at home but should have a letdown after not getting into the Big Dance. The crowds are usually down for these mid-week tournament games and I wouldn't be shocked to see Niagara win but I do think they can stay within 10 in the underdog role playing an ACC team.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento KingsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Sacramento KingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

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Portland at MilwaukeeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A tough situational spot for Portland, the second of a back to back road spot. Portland is on a 16-5 run over the total and 26th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, allowing .467% shooting by opponents. The over is 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. While Portland is in the second of a back to back spot, the Bucks are home and rested, so they will run right at the Blazers with their great guard depth. The Bucks defense, though, is spotty, off an embarrassing home loss to Orlando Sunday giving up 106 points, part of a 7-2 run over the total. The defense has allowed 100 or more points in 9 of the last 10 games. And when these teams meet the over is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings. Play the Blazers/Bucks over the total.

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Middle Tennessee State vs Saint Marys Ca
Pick: Middle Tennessee StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have been on record for some time now with my opinion that this edition of Saint Mary's is just not an NCAA at-large caliber squad. They really haven't beaten anyone of note all season, with the exception of Creighton in the Bracket Buster. That was a much bigger game for the Gaels than the Bluejays, so even that win comes with an asterisk of sorts. It's not that I'm sold on Middle Tennessee to any great extent. They're out of a woeful Sun Belt Conference, and they're not exactly loaded with quality wins themselves. The Blue Raiders can be prone to turnovers, and they haven't been money in the bank in the few close games they played. So while I'm seeing lots of support for MTSU, I'm not that thrilled with them. But I'm less enamored with the Gaels, who just aren't that good this season, and also have struggled mightily since the bad news from the NCAA came down. Add it all up, and the nod from here has to go to Middle Tennessee State plus the points.

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Oakland vs. Youngstown St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Youngstown St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The return of high-scorer G Kendrick Perry (16.7 ppg) from a late-season knee injury at least means that upperclassman-laden Youngstown has all hands on deck for this rare postseason adventure. Run-and-gun Oakland (73 ppg) likes to push the pace with high-scoring G Travis Bader (21.9 ppg) and Providence transfer G Duke Mondy. But Greg Kampe’s squad avoids work on the defensive end like the plague, allowing a whopping 49.4% FGs, the third worst mark in the country! The chance to face the Oakland “D” has surely helped speed Perkins’ recovery.

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Ottawa +126 over N.Y. ISLANDERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. These two met on February 13, also on the Island, and the Islanders won 3-2 in OT. That contest was the Senators third road game in four days after playing Boston three days prior and Philadelphia the night before. It was also in the middle of a five-game road trip with games at Toronto and at the Rangers on deck. It was an unfavorable spot for the Senators but things are different this time around. Ottawa has been off since Sunday when they whacked the Jets 4-1 and outshot them 42-26. The Senators have won two in a row and have picked up points in 11 of their past 14 games. Since they were written off for dead after injuries to its three best players, there has not been a grittier or more focused team in the NHL than these Senators. Playing an erratic Islanders squad and taking back a price, Ottawa offers up much more value than the host.
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The Islanders have won two straight and five of their past seven. Carrying some momentum with them and expected to win are exactly the type of games the Islanders have been losing all season. After defeating Pittsburgh and New Jersey in succession in late January, the Islanders went on to lose five straight. After defeating the Rangers and Devils in back-to-back games on Feb 3-5, the reeling Flyers visited and clobbered the Islanders, 7-0. New York has Montreal and Pittsburgh on deck and it has proven over and over that it cannot be trusted as the chalk. That applies here.
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St. Louis +113 over VANCOUVERFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Canucks can’t stop the bleeding. Vancouver has lost two in a row, six of its last eight and 11 of 16. On Saturday night against Detroit, Vancouver came out sharp and built a 1-0 lead. When the Red Wings tied it 1-1, it went downhill from there as the Canucks went on to lose 5-2. A similar result ensued last night after Minnesota came in here, tied it 1-1 in the second period and went on to dominate play and win it 3-1. Reeling, the Canucks will now play their third game in four days and their sixth game in nine days. For an aging, tired, frustrated and fragile squad, it’s not the best scenario to be spotting a price in.
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The Blues have their swagger back in addition to having outstanding rookie Vladimir Tarasenko back in the lineup after returning in the teams' last game against Anaheim. Tarasenko brings energy, excitement and another scoring option for this deep and talented club. After a prolonged slump in February that saw the Blue Notes win just five of 14 games, St. Louis has turned it on with three straight wins and five victories in its past six contests. The Blues only loss over that stretch came in their fourth successive road game in Anaheim after a 4-3 OT win in San Jose the previous day. In net for all five of those wins was Jake Allen and he’s the confirmed starter again tonight. Playing a plunging Canucks club that is 0-4 this season in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation like they’re in tonight, the surging Blues are not about to let this crumbling host get whole.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington at BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU (21-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 72-69 win against San Diego as an 11.5-point favorite way back on March 8th. The Cougars have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, BYU has played 11 of their last 15 games on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, the Cougars have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Washington (18-15) lost in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament to Oregon by an 80-77 score in overtime -- and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. BYU is 15-3 at home this season -- and the Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. Take the Under in this one.

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Boston vs. WinnipegFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Winnipeg Jets have to be happy with their season so far, currently tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East with Toronto and New Jersey. The Jets have won five of their last seven games, but they might be hard pressed to get another win tonight, as they face a much tougher opponent than they have seen during that seven game stretch.
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Here are my keys to the game:
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1: Fatigue - Both teams are playing in a 3-in-4 situation, but Winnipeg returns home to play it's first game back from a road trip, and the Jets might be primed for a let down after having success against lesser opponents. Recent wins have come against the likes of Tampa, Florida, Toronto and the struggling Rangers.
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2: Recent History - These two teams have faced each other twice previously this season, and Boston has taken both those meetings in low scoring defensive battles. The Bruins won by a score of 3-2 in their last visit to Winnipeg, and they won in a shootout by a score of 2-1 at home in Boston.
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3: X-Factor - Winnipeg may be hard pressed to score on the power-play, as Boston has the top penalty killing unit in the league. They have only conceded goals on an amazing 7 percent of their shorthanded situations so far this season. The Jets power-play is ranked among the worst in the league, and it's not likely to get any better against Boston.

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Northeastern vs. AlabamaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NortheasternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama has won ten straight at home dating back to the beginning of January, but the Crimson Tide have not been particularly adept at winning by pointspread covering margins. The results don’t lie.
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Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk, and only one of their last nine wins at home came by more than ten points – a revenge matchup against lowly Auburn. Plain and simple – the Tide are not a team that runs up margins, making them a poor double digit favorite tonight.
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To make matters worse for Alabama, they’re playing without senior guard Andrew Steele again, out with an ankle injury that is expected to end his season, even if the Crimson Tide advance. When Steele missed the entire month of December, Alabama lost three times at home to lesser teams – Dayton, Mercer and Tulane – as big favorites every time.
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Northeastern is coming to play! Alabama head coach Anthony Grant, talking about his counterpart Bill Coen on the Huskies sideline: “His teams play hard. They don’t beat themselves. Extremely physical team. They’re typically a pretty balanced team. He’s playing about 11 guys. He’s got guys that shoot it, guys that get to the rim, get to the free-throw line. I think they’ve made more free throws than their opponents have taken. Just a very tough, hard-nosed team.” The Huskies have lost only two games all year by more than tonight’s spread. I don’t expect a third! Take Northeastern.