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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 19

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder/Nuggets Under 216FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is no secret that both of these teams can score a lot of points. Their reputations as high scoring teams is what makes the under the value play in this game. The total has been driven up much higher than it should be considering Oklahoma City is a quality defensive team playing on their home court.
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You should always play the under in a game involving two teams shooting 47% or more when they are average ball handling teams committing 14.5-16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 30-6 (83.3%) to the under since 1996.
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This game also falls into a system to play the under when a team is revenging two consecutive straight up loss as a favorite like the Thunder when they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games and they are playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 in favor of the under.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 10:33 am
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Wunderdog

Game: Northeastern at Alabama
Pick: Northeastern +12

Northeastern won the Colonial Conference during the regular season, but could not make it out of the Conference Tournament, and will get a shot at Alabama in the NIT. The Huskies have done well in their toughest games with wins over Princeton, and Belmont, and they played La Salle to a 2-point loss, and Charlotte to an 8-point loss. I don't see them getting blown out here vs. an Alabama team that has 13 losses on the season, including losses to Mercer and Tulane. Since starting 6-0, Alabama has only beaten three teams by more than 12 points, and Northeastern is competent enough to hang in there. The Huskies overachieve after underachieving, as they are 14-2 ATS following an ATS loss. The Tide is reeling after a loss at 4-12-1 ATS in their last seven. Play the dog, and back Northeastern

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 11:42 am
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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis at VancouverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canucks (13-9-1-5) have lost two in a row after their 3-1 loss to Montreal last night. They stay home here where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. Vancouver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. St. Louis (16-10-1-1) has seen the Over go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games played against an opponent that failed to score more than two goals in their last game. The Blues go back on the road after a three-game home stand that culminated with a 2-1 win in overtime versus Anaheim -- and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total. Take the Over in this one.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 12:13 pm
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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Niagara +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Niagara Purple Eagles (19-13) are ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after a solid season. The same cannot be said for Maryland (22-12), which thought it would be playing in the NCAA Tournament after upsetting Duke in the ACC Tournament. In fact, the Terrapins beat the Blue Devils twice this season.
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There's no question that leaving Maryland out was one of the biggest snubs of the NCAA Tournament. I look for these players to be more disappointed than motivated heading into the NIT, and that will carry over into this game with the Purple Eagles.
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Niagara has been a very competitive team all season. In fact, only two of its 13 losses came by more than 11 points. Those were road losses to Oregon State and Notre Dame early in the season. What hurt the Terrapins the most was playing a very easy non-conference schedule.
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Maryland is 3-13 ATS after having won 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Purple Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Terrapins are 13-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Bet Niagara Tuesday.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 12:14 pm
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Dennis MacklinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Norfolk State +16FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Norfolk State won two games in this tournament last year and then went 16-0 in the MEAC before getting punked in the first round of their tournament when the Spartans picked the wrong night to shoot just 31% from the field. They can't be very happy. Virginia beat Duke to open their door to a Big Dance bid and then dropped three of their final four to wind up here. They can't be very happy. That said, we can definitely see the Spartans more motivated than the Cavaliers to be playing tonight. In their only venture against the ACC this year, Norfolk lost by 22 to North Carolina State but that was early in the season and State (who returned just one starter from last year's 26 win team is much more confident at this point. The Cavs also don't have the big, physical and athletic front court that gave the Spartans problems and really don't have the offense to be laying 16 points to any smaller school that can play. Norfolk State can play and if they shhot the ball even half way decent tonight, will be in this game start to finish. Grab the points.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 12:15 pm
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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando Magic +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pacers will have a tough time running away with this one given their level of fatigue. This is their second game in as many nights and their fourth in five days. A matchup with lowly Orlando isn't likely to get the juices flowing. So with a two-day break following this game, don't be surprised if the Pacers start their break early. The Magic were blown out 115-86 by the Pacers Mar. 8, but keep in mind that that game came directly after they lost to the Miami Heat on a last-second shot. They clearly hadn't let that one go. The wins haven't been piling up but Orlando has quietly taken its level of play up a notch, as evidenced by the fact it has covered the spread in 5 of its last 7 games. It is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games with a pair of wins and narrow defeats to top-notch competition like the Grizzlies and Heat. The Magic are 20-11 ATS as a road underdog this season. Take the points.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 12:15 pm
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Andrew Lange

Stephen F. Austin at Stanford
Play: Stephen F. Austin

I'm a little surprised Stanford decided to give head coach Johnny Dawkins another year but as a bettor I won't complain because under Dawkins this team has been a consistent underachiever. As for the NIT, I have my concerns about the Cardinal and their motivation considering they won the event last season. And they get a first round opponent that they simply can't just show up and beat. Stephen F. Austin is a quality mid-major with wins at Tulsa, Oklahoma and Long Beach State. The Lumberjacks also lost at Texas A&M by eight points. They play at a slow place and thrive on the defensive end of the floor (42.1% eFG, 29.0% 3-point, 88.2 ppp allowed). SFA's stout three-point defense is particularly noteworthy considering Stanford shot 41.1% in PAC-12 play which accounted for 32% of its points. Look for the underdog to stick around in this one.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:16 pm
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Joe Gavazzi

Northeastern +12

All bets are off if the Huskies begin the game down by 20 as they did in their two previous Colonial CCT games. Though they rebounded to defeat G Mason in the first of those, they fell short to eventual league champ JMU the following night. Yet the Huskies have been their best in this role, standing 6-1 ATS as road dog. Not sure Alabama is excited about this opportunity. With 12 SEC wins, they were certainly hoping for an NCAA invite. The 61-51 loss to FL is hardly a consolation prize. Yet that type of low variance performance has been typical of the Tide all season, as they are 2-9 ATS as home chalk. Northeastern senior guards Lee and Smith will relish the matchup against higher profile SEC counterparts Lacey and Relleford. High percentage probability that the Huskies come in under this number.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:19 pm
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Larry Ness

South Dakota State vs. Michigan
Pick: South Dakota St.

Michigan won its first 16 games this season but was just 10-7 SU (5-11-1 ATS) down the stretch. The Wolverines do get an excellent venue for this game (Auburn Hills is just miles from the Ann Arbor campus) but the Wolverines get no favors in their opponent, the South Dakota St Jackrabbits. Coach John Beilein's team makes its fourth trip in six years to the Big Dance and matched its No. 4 seed from a season ago, but the Wolverines (-5.5) lost their first game of the tourney last year to the 13th-seeded Bobcats, 65-60. Could a similar fate await them this year? Just maybe.

There is no doubt that Michigan fields a talented group but during the season’s second-half, the Wolverines have shown a lack of mental and physical toughness at crucial times down the stretch plus WAY too often, the offense (despite its many options), has become over-reliant on sophomore guard Trey Burke (19.2-3.1-6.7). Michigan’s perimeter-oriented team lacks a reliable post threat (Wolverines rank 156th in rebound margin), so one can expect that the Jackrabbits, a junior and senior-laden group, just may make the Wolverines ‘sweat’ the last few minutes of this game. SDSU’s 6-4 senior guard Nate Wolters (22.7-5.6-5.8) is a “player” and is joined by three other double digit scorers. That trio includes 6-8 junior Dykstra (12.5-7.9), 6-7 senior Fiegen (10.1-3.5) and 6-6 junior White (10.0-4.0).

The Jackrabbitts almost won at Alabama (lost 70-67 as six-point dogs) in this season’s first game and handed New Mexico (tied with Michigan for 10th in the final AP poll) its only loss this year in “The Pit,” 70-65 back on Dec 22 as 15-point underdogs. Let’s also not forget that in last year’s NCAA tourney, SDSU gave Baylor all it wanted, before falling 68-60 (that Baylor team would advance to the Elite 8). I expect Michigan to squeak by but I’m taking the points.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:19 pm
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King Creole

Denver Nuggets +9.

Yes, we are aware that Denver played last night. Yes, we are aware that Denver went into OVERTIME last night. Novice players and handicappers might assume that an AUTOMATIC play on the THUNDER is warranted under those conditions. But before you lay the (almost) DOUBLE-DIGITS in this game..... hear me out.

Denver is the HOTTEST team in the NBA right now. Last night's win over Chicago was their 12th STRAIGHT win... which is tied for BEST winning streak in Nuggets history. I am NOT gonna be fading this team this evening. And when you see all applicable situations that apply to this game, then perhaps you'll be joining me in playing the UNDERDOG Nuggets.

*NBA home favorites of -7 > points (Okla City) have gone 3-13 ATS on TUESDAYS this season.

*NBA teams with a .666 > winning percentage (NUGGETS) have gone 11-1 ATS this season as underdogs of +7 > points.

*Since January, NBA road underdogs with NO REST and playing off a road win (DENVER) have gone 12-2 ATS vs any opponent also off a SU win (Okla City). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as underdogs of +7 > points.

*Conference underdogs playing with NO REST off a road OVERTIME win (DENVER) have gone 11-1 ATS in the last 5 seasons.

DENVER: 9-1 ATS as dogs of +7 > pts last 2 years... 17-6 ATS on TUESDAYS (6-2 ATS as dogs)... 7-1 ATS in the 2nd of BB road games with NO REST vs any opp off a SU win.

Oklahoma City: 1-6 ATS as TUESDAY division home favs of < 12 pts... 4-15 ATS since 1998 at home vs a conference opponent with NO REST off a SU road win.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:20 pm
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Jeff Alexander

Niagara +11

Maryland will have a tough time getting up for this one. The Terrapins believed they had done enough to reach the Big Dance with a win over Duke in the ACC tourney. They aren't at all happy about playing in the NIT and will have a hard time finding motivation. This experienced Niagara team couldn't be happier about getting shot at Maryland. After all, the Purple Eagles didn't play any postseason ball last season. The Purple Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, and I expect them to hang tough to get the cover tonight.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:21 pm
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NHL Predictions

Montreal Canadiens -½ -118

The Sabres are having a tough go right now as they sit 10-15-4 on the year and just 5-9-2 on the road. Buffalo has lost two straight games and 6 of their last 7 overall. The only upside for Buffalo is that they managed to get a single point in three of those losses. While Buffalo sits in last place in the Northeast the Canadiens are sitting in 1st with their 19-5-4 record and 9-3-2 home record. Montreal has won 5 straight games and have outscored opponents 19-11 (averaging just under 4 goals per game during that span). These two teams have met twice with Montreal winning 6-1 at home, and then Buffalo winning 5-4 in shootout in Buffalo. If you can remember that game the Sabres came from behind and tied it up during the last few seconds of the game. Buffalo has lost 5 straight road games, while the Canadiens are 9-4 in their last 13 home games. I like Montreal to win in regulation.

Pittsburgh Penguins -½ -118

The Capitals are 12-15-1 on the season and just 4-8-1 on the road. They are coming off a 5-3 home victory against Buffalo on Sunday, but had lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. Washington has scored just 12 goals over their last 6 games (just 2 goals per game), while giving up 22 against (over 3 per game). The Pittsburgh Penguins are on an impressive 9 game winning streak to push their record to 22-8 on the season and 10-4 at home. The Penguins have scored 3+ goals in 8 of their last 9 games. They are also playing solid defensively allowing just 5 goals against over their last 5 games. Take note that Washington is 4-11 in their last 15 road games while the Penguins are 39-16 in their last 55 home games dating back to last year. In their two meetings this season the Penguins have won 6-3 in Washington and more recently 5-2 in Pittsburgh. I'll go with the red hot Penguins to take care of the Caps in 60 minutes.

 
Posted : March 19, 2013 2:26 pm
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