Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday March, 20

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators

Edmonton is 28-36-8 (10-21-3 on the road). Nashville is 42-22-8 (23-8-5 at home). The last time these teams played against each other, Nashville beat the Oilers in Edmonton on February 28th, 2011.

On Sunday the Oilers lost 3-2 in a shootout to Phoenix. Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky tallied the markers. Devan Dubnyk who made 40-saves. “It’s very frustrating. It seems to be the story of our season. A couple of mistakes and it costs us the game," Eberle quipped.

The Predators won 3-1 at Anaheim on Sunday. Nashville completed the season sweep of the Ducks with Patric Hornqvist, David Legwand and Mike fisher potting the goals. It was back up Anders Lindback who made 30-saves, as Pekka Rinne was given a break.

With a particularly tough upcoming stretch to end the month which includes games at Pittsburgh, vs. Winnipeg, at Chicago, at St. Louis, at Detroit and vs. Chicago, tonight's game is a definite "must win" for Nashville, which currently sits in second place in the tightly packed Central division.

And because of that, I'm going to recommend laying the price here!

Jim Feist

Rice vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -6

A pair of 19-win teams for the CIT tourney, but Oakland has home court and Rice is a long way from home. The Owls are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. They come off a win over Drake, but it was at home. They take on an Oakland team that has an attacking, sensational offense averaging 79.6 ppg -- 9th best in the nation. OU is 7-2 over its last nine games and has made 10 or more 3-pointers in 12 of 13 games The Golden Grizzlies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Grab the home court in this tourney clash; Play Oakland!

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO -½ +124 over Calgary

This one has huge playoff implications. The Avalanche have six games left and sit in eighth spot with 83 points while the Flames have two less points and sit in 11th. A loss here for either club would devastate their playoff chances. Thing is, the Flames lost at Edmonton on Friday and at home to the Jackets on Sunday to put themselves in this hole. Those are the league’s two worst teams in terms of points and it was two games that Calgary had to have. Instead of enhancing its playoff chances, it hindered it and one has to question how they’ll bounce back from that. The Avs’ are coming off a very difficult three-game trip through Buffalo, New Jersey and New York. They picked up five of a possible six points against that tough trio and have now picked up points in seven of their last eight. Colorado’s only regulation loss over that span occurred in Nashville. While the Flames are extinguishing, this host is playing their best hockey at the most crucial time. Finally, the Avs have lost an incredible nine straight to this enemy including four games this season. Expect a correction here in this playoff-like setting. Play: Colorado -½ +124 (Risking 2 units).

Phoenix +115 over DALLAS

Another huge game with first place in the Pacific on the line and the automatic bid that goes with it. How close is this one? These two have played five times this season with Phoenix winning three times. Three of the five games they played went into OT. This figures to be another close one but the Coyotes are getting a tag and they’re in better form. Dallas is coming off back-to-back losses in which they were outscored 9-3. They’ve scored two goals or less in four straight. The Coyotes have picked up points in four of five with wins in Vancouver and Edmonton and a home win over San Jose. They also picked up a point with an OT loss in Nashville. Aside from getting a price on the dog, Phoenix also has an edge in net and on defense and that is what usually decides the winner in critical games. Play: Phoenix +115 (Risking 2 units).

LOS ANGELES -½ +132 over San Jose

As the playoffs approach, these two are headed in different directions. The Sharks, a perennial playoff disaster, have been sinking while the Kings are surging. There is little that suggests anything other than an L.A. victory here. The Sharks played last night at home against another sinking ship, the Ducks, and lost 5-3. This will be San Jose’s third game in four nights. In its past 11 road games, San Jose has two wins in Toronto and Edmonton. Overall, the Sharkies have lost 13 of their past 18 games. The Kings have been off since Saturday when they beat Nashville 4-2. It was their fourth win in a row and they’ve scored four times or more in the past three. Overall, Los Angeles has won seven of nine and has outscored their past four opponents 16-8. Potential playoff opposition is pulling for the Sharks here because none of them want to face the Kings in the post-season. L.A. is a talented team that struggled through most of the season due to a lack of offense. They won more than half of their games with outstanding defense and goaltending. Now with some offence, the Kings are among the most dangerous teams in the NHL and they should get little resistance in adding to the Sharks misery.Play: Los Angeles -½ +132 (Risking 2 units).

Dom Chambers

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Sacramento Kings as a home dog to cover against the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a while the Grizzlies were putting together a nice string. However, they have slid back recently. The Grizzlies have lost three of their last five games straight up and have gone 1-4 ATS in that stretch.

And three of those games were at home. Now, the Grizzlies start a four-game road trip.

The Kings have had problems this season, but have won their last two games, beating the Celtics and the Timberwolves.

They are not playoff-bound, but at home can put up a fight. At home, the Kings are 12-9 straight up and 11-10 ATS. They average 100.8 points at home. In their last five games, the Kings have averaged 107 points a game, while giving up 107.8 points.

In Memphis’ last five games, their defense has disappeared as their totals went from 93.1 to 102.2

Look for the Kings to push the tempo and scoring and the Grizzlies are going to struggle to keep pace. Getting points in this spot is very attractive.

3♦ KINGS

David Chan

Phoenix @ Miami
Pick: Miami -10.5

I bet value where I see it and am expecting the home side to lay the hammer down on Tuesday night.

Phoenix has won four-straight, most recently a 99-86 win over Houston on Sunday.

Michael Redd scored 25-points.

The Suns have been getting the job done with a balanced attack:

“Every night there is someone else playing big minutes and having a big game,” said Marcin Gortat (15 points and 10 rebounds).

Channing Frye had 19-points.

With the win Phoenix moved within a half-game of the Rockets for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Heat are coming off a 91-81 win over Orlando on Sunday.

Dwyane Wade had 31-points; Chris Bosh finished with 23; Lebron James had 14-points, 12-rebounds, seven-assists and five-steals.

The Heat were just as impressive on the defensive end, holding the Magic to their lowest point total in 11-games:

“You have to weather a lot of storms when you play the Orlando Magic,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “And you have to stay the course.”

Miami enjoys two whole days off after this game, and although Phoenix has been hot, it finally stumbles here as it gets caught "looking ahead" to the choppy seas in Orlando tomorrow night.

All signs point to a comfortable home cover!

Matt Fargo

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto is coming off a pretty embarrassing lost last night in Boston as it was hammered 8-0. By the end of the second period, the Bruins had seven goals while the Maple Leafs had managed just seven shots. Boston completed a 6-0 season sweep with those six wins coming by a combined score of 36-10. A quick turnaround should do Toronto good here as it heads home in search of its own season sweep. The Maple Leafs have taken the first three meetings with the Islanders this season and look to go 4-0 here. The Islanders won their last game on Saturday against Montreal with a 3-2 shootout victory which snapped a two-game road losing streak and moved to 14-16-5 on the season away from home. While they have shown some positive signs, the Islanders know a fifth consecutive last-place finish in the Atlantic Division is all but certain. New York has won consecutive games only once since early February and it is now 1-7 in its last eight games following a win. The loss last night was the worst for the Maple Leafs in four years and while they have struggled at home of late, their last six home games have come against teams in the playoffs or right on the edge of getting in. they had won three straight including two shutouts against the Islanders and Penguins and a convincing 6-3 over Edmonton before things started falling apart. Toronto is still a respectable 16-13-6 on home ice this season with six of their final nine games taking place at home. Revenge will be in play for New York tonight but that is not necessarily a good thing here as the Islanders are 11-26 this season when playing with revenge including 5-19 revenging a game where the opponent scored four or more goals. There is also a league-wide situation going against the Islanders as we play against road underdogs that are revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, off a road win by one goal. This situation is 63-14 (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons.

Andrew Lange

UMass at Drexel
Play: Over 141

Something has to give with tonight's UMass-Drexel total which opened at 141. The Dragons' highest total this season came way back in November against Norfolk State (134.5) and that went UNDER by 17 points. The other was the 130.5 against Niagara which landed 129. In terms of actually producing over 141 points, Drexel (and opposing teams) accomplished the feat just four times this season. But when you take into account who the Dragons played this season, the results aren't surprising. The Colonial League features only two teams (George Mason and Delaware) that are active in pushing the pace. Beyond that, Drexel faced Rider and Niagara, two teams out of the MAAC that are fairly up-tempo. Obviously Drexel doesn't want to get into a track meet but I've watched UMass play enough to know that even the slowest of teams can't help but routinely find open looks early in the shot clock. The Minutemen are relentless and married to the concept of playing at an up-tempo pace regardless of the opponent. Also note that despite playing in a defensive-minded conference, Drexel led the league in offensive efficiency at 108.5 points per possession. The Dragons have played only four games with 70 or more possessions but I think we'll see that and some tonight. Play it over.

Free NBA Release for 3/20: Houston Rockets +3 (-105, 5Dimes) over the LA Lakers. We're expecting the Rockets to bounce back from two tough road games tonight at home against the Lakers. This is also a revenge game for Houston, as they lost earlier 108-99 at the Staples Center earlier this year. In fact, Houston has lost two straight to the Lakers dating back to last year, both in LA. But the Lakers are just 9-14 SU and 7-15 ATS on the road this year, and the Rockets are 3-1 ATS in the last four games of this series. Kyle Lowry is questionable for the Rockets in tonight's contest as he is dealing with a bacterial infection. But Goran Dragic has picked up the slack at the point, averaging 16 points and 9.2 rebounds per game in his absence (slightly outperforming Lowry's numbers). Metta World Peace, formerly known as Ron Artest, is questionable for tonight's contest for the Lakers as he is dealing with hip bursitis. Say what you want about Artest, his numbers are never great, but he is a big body in the paint. Statistically, Houston outperforms LA in shooting %, points/game, turnovers, and bench points. Factor in the fact that LA has to play tomorrow night in Dallas, and it looks to us like the wrong team is favored here tonight. The Lakers are 5-11 at the window in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%, and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Rockets are a perfect 4-0 at the window in their last 4 games as a home underdog, and a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They've also grabbed the money in four of the last five times hosting LA. We'll take the points and the home court tonight, Houston +3. * Our free play record is 183-102-1 all-time. Sign up at our website to get all of our free picks via email.

Jack Jones

Miami Heat -10.5

The Miami Heat (33-11) are 19-2 at home and have reeled off 13 consecutive wins at AmericanAirlines Arena since a 91-82 loss to Milwaukee on January 22nd. They welcome the Phoenix Suns tonight, a team they have absolutely owned in recent meetings.

Phoenix would normally be a bigger underdog on the road against Miami, but their recent solid play against poor competition has given them some respect. The Suns have won four straight games, but none of those wins came against top-notch competition. Phoenix has the toughest remaining schedule in the league as their final 17 games will come against teams with a combined 56.0 winning percentage.

Miami has won three straight and six of their last seven against Phoenix. Their last two meetings have resulted in double-digit blowouts. They won at Phoenix 95-83 after topping the Suns 123-96 at home. Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with Phoenix. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with the Suns.

The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 days rest. The Heat are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents. Bet Miami Tuesday.

Steve Janus

Massachusetts +6.5

I will gladly take the 6.5-points in tonight's NIT Quarterfinal showdown between Massachusetts and Drexel. The Minutemen have been undervalued in both their NIT games so far. They won at Mississippi State 101-96 as a 7-point underdog and at Seton Hall 77-67 as a 6.5-point underdog. Drexel easily covered in their 81-56 win over UCF, but barely held on for a 65-63 win against UNI as a 7-point favorite.

The Minutemen should not be catching this many points. UNI absolutely killed Drexel on the boards, outrebounding the Dragons 32 to 24. Massachusetts figures to also hold a big edge on the glass. The Minutemen outrebounded Miss St 56 to 41 and Seton Hall 42-35.

While most teams play their best at home, I think the Minutemen are really in a groove on the road. They are 22-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997, 12-3 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Lenny Del Genio

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs come off a humiliating 8-0 loss in Boston last night, the finale of a five-game road swing. They return home Tuesday where they draw a very beatable Islanders team. The contingent from Nassau has lost eight of its last 11 and is already 0-3 this season vs. Toronto. They do come off a win (in OT) over Montreal, but are just 1-7 this season off an overtime victory. The Leafs are 6-3 off a road loss by three or more goals.

Vegas Experts

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
Play: Toronto Raptors

The Knicks are hot again, going 3-0 SU/ATS since the firing of former coach Mike D'Antoni. However, tonight finds them laying far too many points against a Raptors squad that has been a live dog, going 12-5-1 ATS when taking points. That includes an outright victory as 10-point pups in Memphis last Friday. They followed that up with a loss in Charlotte, but are 8-1 ATS This season when on the road and off a road loss. Take the points.

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings

When the Kings host the Grizzlies in an NBA Western Conference clash at Arco Arena tonight Sacramento will take the court looking to avenge a pair of losses suffered this season against Memphis, including a 33-point roast in their most recent meeting. With the Kings sporting a splashy 9-3-1 ATS mark in this series when in an avenging mode, look for the surprise here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Sacramento.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +9 over NEW YORK

The Knicks’ stock and popularity is through the roof right now and what that means is you’re going to pay a premium to wager on them here against a Raptor club that nobody outside of Canada has any interest in. Of the 30 NBA clubs, the Raps get the least exposure in America. They are the only team in the Association that has not been featured at least once on TNT or ESPN’s prime time games. Over its past 21 games, Toronto has lost by more than the points offered here just twice. That includes six-point losses to both Miami and San Antonio, a two-point loss to the Lakers and an outright win in Memphis. They played the Knicks twice this season, split them and lost by just three. Incidentally, Andrea Bargnani is back and Jose Calderon returns tonight. The Knicks’ last three games since Mike D’Antoni stepped down have all been blowout wins for New York. That, too, has influence on this already inflated number. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it here. Play: Toronto +9 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).