Jimmy Boyd
Oklahoma City Thunder -3
Respect is given to the Jazz, who have won 3 in a row overall and 6 straight at home, but I believe they meet their match here. This will be Utah's 5th game in 7 days, and I don't believe it will be fresh enough to keep pace with the Thunder for 48 minutes.
Consider that plays against home underdogs in the month of March playing their 5th game in 7 days are 62-30 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 6.9 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons.
The Jazz have really struggled against the Thunder, losing the last 5 meetings by an average of 15.0 points. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in those games and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. We'll lay the points.
Dave Price
Houston Rockets +3.5
The Lakers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games, 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the points.
Black Widow
Raptors/Knicks UNDER 199.5
Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight. The New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors will take part in another defensive battle similar to their first two meetings this season. In their first two meetings, the Raptors and Knicks combined for 175 points on January 2nd and 177 points on February 14th. Now, this total set is more than 20 points higher than the results from their first two match-ups. New York is only giving up an average of 89.0 points/game since Mike D'Antoni's resignation, which stems back three games. Toronto is only scoring 91.0 points/game overall, including 89.0 points/game on the road. Take the UNDER 199.5 points here.
Jeff Alexander
Washington -5
Oregon has won its first two games of the NIT at home, but I expect a different result as it hits the highway tonight. Washington is 17-2 at home this season with one of those wins coming by 16 points against the Ducks, and it will be extremely motivated here after losing 82-57 at Oregon in the most recent meeting Feb. 9. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 16.0 points. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the Ducks are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Washington. Take the Huskies.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee +3.5 over PORTLAND: Tough spot for Portland here as they are playing their first game home off a long trip. Teams don't do well in that situation. Add that to the fact that Portland is a mess right now and are playing a hot Milwaukee team that has won 5 in a row. Bucks should take this one outright. KEY TRENDS--- PORTLAND is 2-11 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season, while MILWAUKEE is 27-13 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma City -3 over UTAH: Tough spot for the Jazz as they are off two OT games and a road upset win over the Lakers. Oklahoma City is 5-0 the last 5 in the series and have outscored the Jazz by at least 7 points in each game. The Thunder have averaged 108.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while Utah has allowed 101.4 ppg in their last 7 games (Regulation). Bad spot all around for the Jazz.
Toronto/ NY Knicks Over 199: The Knicks are starting to play at the pace they like and their last 7 games have really resembled that as those have averaged 209.1 ppg. The Knicks are starting to score as they have averaged 106.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while Toronto has allowed 101.6 ppg in their last 5, including 107 in their last game to the worst offense in the league. This should be a fast paced game with lots of points scored. I look for around 205 points here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Lakers/ Houston Over 190.5: Google Play. The past 5 meetings between these Western rivals all played OVER the total, with at least 207 points being scored in each game. Earlier this year the teams hooked up in LA and did put 207 points on the board. Houston has been a good scoring team at home as they have averaged 99.6 ppg on their home floor, while the Lakers allow 97.3 ppg an the road. LA's defense has been suffering of late as they have allowed 98.1 ppg in their last 7 games (Regulation), compared to their 92.9 ppg they have allowed for the year overall. Houston has been solid on defense at home, but they have allowed 95 points or more in 7 of their last 8 non-OT games. The Lakers average 98.4 ppg in their last 7 games (regulation) overall, while in their last 5 games vs Houston they have hit at least 98 points in each of them. Both teams should be able to hit the 96 point mark as this game should flirt with 200.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Drexel/ UMass Over 141: The Dragons don't play a lot of high scoring games, due to the fact that they play great defense, but that defense will be tested in this one as they take on the high scoring Minutemen. UMass has averaged 77.8 ppg overall this year, while in their last 6 games (reg) they have averaged 81.2 ppg. Now because of the pace that this team plays at they will also give up points as they allow 72.5 ppg overall and 75 ppg on the road. Drexel doesn't score a ton, but they do average 69.1 ppg on 46.5% shooting at home and 68.5 ppg in their last 8 games. Drexel is a great defensive team, but UMass will find a way to get their points in this one, while Drexel should be able to score on a defense that has allowed 80 ppg in their last 5 overall and just doesn't play well defensively on the road. I see the upper 140's in this one.
Rice +6 over OAKLAND: The Owls did not really finish the regular season strong as they won just 2 of their last 5 heading into this tourney, but this team has responded so far by beating a couple of MVC teams, with one of those games coming on the road. Oakland has been playing well as they have won 7 of their last 9 games, but two of those wins were in OT vs weaker competition and they did lose in the foirst round of their Summit League tourney to an under .500 Southern Utah squad. Oakland does get a big edge on offense as they have averaged 85 ppg in their last 5 games and 80 ppg overall, but I feel that Rice should be able to slow them down on defense enough to keep this one close. The Owls do allow 67 ppg on the year and they do get the defensive edge here as Oakland has allowed 78.6 ppg overall and 79.7 ppg at home. Rice doesn't score a ton, but it has picked up more of late as they have averaged 70.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Oakland always gets the pace they want at home and while they are 11-5 at home they have outscored their opponents by just 4.5 ppg on their home floor. The Owls have a winning record on the road at 7-6 and behind a solid defensive effort they should be able too keep this one close. Let's also note (and i really hate to say this), that 75% of the public is on Oakland, yet the line came down 1 points from it's opening at 6 (i played it when it first came out). I feel the Owls can win outright.
Rocketman
Oklahoma City @ Utah
Play: Oklahoma City -3
Oklahoma City comes in with a 34-11 overall record this year while Utah comes in with a 23-22 SU record this season. Oklahoma City has won 7 of 8 this year against division opponents where they are scoring an average of 107.2 points per game. Over the past five games the Thunder are scoring an average of 108.8 points per game. Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS at Utah the past 3 years. Oklahoma City has covered seven of the past eight meetings overall in this series. The Thunder blows out the Jazz tonight! We'll recommend a small play on Oklahoma City tonight!