Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Frank Jordan

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles
Play: Over 199

Each of these two teams scores over 100 points per game and the Lakers give up 95 while Phoenix allows 105. With the emotions of divisional rivals and the history look for the defense to be lacking and the scoreboard to light up as they each hit the triple digit mark. Play the Over

Jim Feist

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles
Play: Under 200

The Lakers are playing exceptional defense, riding an 8-2 run under the total. They have so much flashy offense that the public sees them as an uptempo offensive team, but their defense has been turning it up a notch the last month. The public also sees the Suns as a run-and-gun team, but oddsmakers have overvalued them, riding a 6-0 run under the total. The Under is 40-19 in the Lakers last 59 overall and the Under is 37-14 in the Lakers last 51 games playing on 1 days rest. Play the Suns/Lakers Under the total.

Tom Freese

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -6½

Phoenix is 35-33 straight up this year. The Suns are 0-5 ATS their last 5 Tuesday games. The Suns are 0-3-1 ATS their last 4 games vs. a team with winning record. The Suns are 2-5 ATS their last 7 meetings in Los Angles. The Lakers are 50-20 straight up this year. The Lakers are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games and they are 7-2 ATS when playing with on day of rest. Kobe and company are 6-1 ATS their last 7 Tuesday games. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS vs. Western Conference teams.

EZWINNERS

Colorado Buffaloes -10

Kent State has to be pleased with their run in the NIT tournmanet, but I expect that run to come to an end tonight against Colorado. The Golden Flashes became the first team to win its first two games on the road since the tournament switched back to thirty two teams in 2007 but I don't expect them to make it three straight or even keep this one very close. The Buffalos are rolling and are on a mission to prove that they should have been in the big dance by winning the NIT. Kent State is only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a road underdog of 7 to 12.5 points and Colorado is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points. Look for the Buffalos to roll. Lay the points.

Rocketman

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Colorado Avalanche
Play: Colorado Avalanche

Columbus is 2-10 last 12 overall games. Colorado is 29-9 last 38 overall meetings in this series since 1996. Colorado is 16-3 at home vs Columbus since 1996. Blue Jackets are 52-112-6 in their last 170 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Blue Jackets are 4-9 in their last 13 games as a road favorite. Blue Jackets are 119-272-15 in their last 406 road games. Blue Jackets are 4-10 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 2-7 in their last 9 Tuesday games. Blue Jackets are 1-4 in their last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Blue Jackets are 3-14 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Blue Jackets are 2-10 in their last 12 overall. Blue Jackets are 1-6 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Blue Jackets are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Home team is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!

Ray Monohan

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles
Play: Over 199

Tuesday night NBA action and we get an old Pacific division rivalry matchup. Suns vs. Lakers. Phoenix won their last game out 108-99 over the Clippers. The Lakers defeated Portland 84-80 in their last matchup. These two clubs are 1-2 in the Division though the Lakers hold a huge advantage. This is the final game of the 4-game series. The Lakers lead 2-1 after taking last season’s series from the Suns 3-1. The last time the Suns played the Lakers at Staples Center (Nov. 14), they made a franchise-record 22 3-pointers in a 121-116 victory. I don't forsee that many points in this one, but I do see this game flying OVER the total. Trends I like in this one include, Over is 9-2 in Suns last 11 Tuesday games, Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Suns are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. I actually think they could win this one outright as the Lakers will be missing Bynum, and with Frye back in for Phoenix we could have a track meet.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Colorado -10

The Buffaloes have been dominant at home, where they are 17-2 this season with an average victory margin of 15.9 points. They have been nothing short of impressive in their first two home games in the NIT with wins of 14 and 17 points. Colorado has been at home in its comfort zone for a lengthy period of time while Kent State has had to travel to St. Mary's and Fairfield. Winning a 3rd straight on the road figures to be too much to ask of the Golden Flashes, especially with only a day to prepare. Consider that Colorado is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game under coach Boyle, winning these contests by an average of 20.0 points. The Golden Flashes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points while the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Colorado appears to have shaken off its NCAA tourney snub and has its sights set on an NIT title. We'll lay the points.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Some will argue that New Jersey plays with "revenge" here, and while that is true, I'll be quick to point out that the Devils are just 21-22 (-2.3 units) when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season.

However, the last time these teams met was way back on November 15th (a 3-0 Boston win); the "revenge factor" simply doesn't apply here.

On the other side of the rink: Boston has struggled of late, winning just once in its last seven games after falling 5-2 to Toronto on Saturday; it is now just a single-point behind the surging Montreal Canadiens.

But this is an important stretch for the Bruins and I expect this team to answer the call; after tonight's game against the Devils, they play Montreal on Thursday before concluding their home stand two days later versus the Rangers.

And note that Boston is 4-2 (+1.4 units) when playing with two-days of rest.

Bottom line: I think we're getting excellent line value on this selection with a determined and some what desperate home side; consider a second look at the Boston Bruins in this contest.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +116 over MINNESOTA

Three weeks ago the Wild was rolling along, on pace for 98 points. Four painful weeks later all that good will has been destroyed. The Wild has lost six in a row, they’re 3-8-2 since moving into fifth in the Western Conference on Feb. 22 and is 11th in the West, seven points behind Calgary, Anaheim and Dallas. In other words, they’re finished and will now play out the string. It’s been a long season for teams in the West. All year teams battled for position and could not afford a prolonged losing streak. The Wild played their hearts out and overachieved for 60 games and five long months. The reality of all that hard work not paying off has set it and came to a head in the Wild’s last game against the Habs in which they were wiped out 8-1. The Leafs are virtually out of it too but at least they have a shot. They’re five points out of eight but only have to leapfrog Carolina and Buffalo to get in and they’re just two points behind the Canes. The Maple Leafs have some very nice wins of late including victories over both Buffalo and Carolina but they also have ugly losses. You really never know what you’re going to get with them but this one is more about taking back a tag against a deflated Wild team that’s in a serious funk. Play: Toronto +116 (Risking 2 units).

NY Islanders +163 over TAMPA BAY

. The Islanders continue to get very little respect from both the public and the oddsmakers and as a result they continue to be the most undervalued and underappreciated club in the league. Over their past 20 games the Islanders have just four regulation losses. There’s something good happening on the Island and the players know it and feel it. This team has a chance to be really, really good for many years to come. Meanwhile, the Bolts just aren’t playing well at all. They’ve lost four of their last five and two of those losses were to the Senators. Tampa has just two wins over its last 10 games and while Dwayne Roloson has been good, he’s still inconsistent and that’s what you get when you rely on a 41-year old goaltender with plenty of miles on him. The Islanders will face their former teammate for the first time and likely know his weaknesses better than any other team. In any case, we get a sweet price on hot vs cold and it’s also worth noting that the Bolts are returning home from a four-game trip that took them through Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa in the final three games of said trip. Overlay. Note: Goalies have not been confirmed yet and thus, this is only a play if Al Montoya is in net as opposed to Rick DiPietro. Play: N.Y. Islanders +163 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +15½ over PORTLAND

The Blazers are having a great year and have outperformed expectations by a wide margin. They play with great intensity and they’ve played with a chip on their shoulder all season long. Having said that, they don’t warrant being a 15½-point choice over anyone including the 1-31 road Wizards. Due to Washington’s ineptitude away from home we get an inflated price here. The real kicker, however, is that this game for Portland is sandwiched between the Lakers and Spurs and that makes this one tough to get up for. It’s also worth noting that the Wiz have beaten Portland in three of the last five games and stayed well within this range in all five. This one should be no different. Play: Washington +15½ (Risking 2.06 unit to win 2).

Steve Merril

Santa Clara vs. San Francisco
Play: Santa Clara +2

This will be the third meeting between these West Coast conference opponents this season. San Francisco holds a 2-0 series edge after they beat Santa Clara 74-67 on the road and 68-62 on their home court. However, Santa Clara held a halftime lead in both of those games before the Dons came back to win after out-playing the Broncos over the final 20 minutes of both games. Aside from the double revenge angle Santa Clara has, the Broncos also catch San Francisco in a terrible scheduling spot. San Francisco just played in Hawaii on Saturday night. The Dons trailed by double digits for the majority of that game before they made a furious rally to win the game. They trailed by 7 points with just 82 seconds left to play in the game when they ended the game on an improbable 11-1 run to win 77-74. San Francisco used up a ton energy to get that win, and now they must wheel back and play this game on short recovery time against a Santa Clara team that hasn’t played since last Friday. The Broncos were favored in the first two meetings, but now they are the underdog and catching San Francisco at the perfect time. ‘It's hard to beat a team three times,’ San Francisco head coach Rex Walters said. ‘Santa Clara is a very talented team and they will be ready for us.’ Look for another close game, but this time Santa Clara should have enough to hold off San Francisco.

Rob Vinciletti

Buffalo vs. Iona
Play: Iona -8.5

Iona has quietly put together a solid 23 win season thus far this year and is 12-4 ats after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have also won and covered every time this season when playing with 5 or 6 days of res. Tonight they get a Buffalo team that is 10-36 vs teams who average 77 or more points per game, including 0-4 most recently and 3-6 ats after allowing 60 or less points last out. Iona won and covered the only meeting here between these two teams and should do so again tonight as they appear to be the stronger team. Take Iona.

Jack Jones

Portland Trail Blazers -15

The Portland Trail Blazers should make easy work of the Washington Wizards tonight at home. Washington is the worst road team in the league at 1-31 this season, getting outscored by 13.0 PPG. The Wizards are likely going to be without four of their best players tonight. Rashard Lewis (11.4 PPG) is out with a knee injury, while Andray Blatche (15.9), Nick Young (17.7) and Josh Howard (8.4) are all doubtful. That means they are going to be without roughly 55% of their scoring.

The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Portland sports a solid 24-10 home record this season. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS after a game giving up 20 or more offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. The Wizards are 1-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Portland is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points over the last 2 seasons. The Blazers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take Portland Tuesday.

Info Plays

3* Trail Blazers -15

Reasons why Portland will cover:

1) This is a scary line, as its never easy laying this many points, but the Wizards are expected to be without Rashard Lewis, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and Josh Howard. That doesn't leave them a whole offensively against a Portland team that is 24-10 SU and 19-14 ATS at home this season.

2) Portland just recently played a depleted Cavaliers team at home, and beat them 111-70, which is how we see this game going tonight. The Trail Blazers are coming off a loss to the Lakers, and will be ready to get back on the board with a win, and also pay the Wizards back from a loss they suffered in Washington earlier this season. Washington has lost 4 of their last 6 by 15+ points.

3) Portland lost 79-83 at Washington, but are 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points over the last 2 seasons!